Dampak Jika Kotak Kosong Menang
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses the phenomenon of uncontested elections in Indonesia, with several regions, including Surabaya and Pasuruan, facing single-candidate races in the 2024 local elections. If the 'empty box' option wins, a re-election will be held in 2025. Experts believe that political coalitions dominate to protect party interests, especially due to legal issues involving party leaders. The potential shift in leadership under Prabowo Subianto could bring changes, with hopes for fewer uncontested elections and a healthier democracy in Indonesia, untainted by legal manipulation.
Takeaways
- 📊 There are 41 regions in Indonesia with only one candidate in the 2024 local elections.
- 🗳️ If 'empty box' wins against the sole candidate, a re-election will be held in 2025 according to the regulations.
- 📍 Regions in East Java like Surabaya, Pasuruan, Gresik, Ngawi, and Trenggalek are among those with only one candidate.
- ⚖️ The KPU (General Election Commission) is working on implementing the regulations from Law No. 10 of 2016 regarding re-elections if an 'empty box' wins.
- 📅 The Constitutional Court's ruling No. 60 allows political parties to nominate candidates with a minimum number of votes, but this has little impact in the 2024 elections.
- 🤝 Political party coalitions remain a dominant strategy to secure votes, even when running against an 'empty box'.
- 🔄 Political science expert Abdul Aziz believes there will be fewer 'empty box' victories in the future due to upcoming leadership changes.
- 👥 Many political parties form large coalitions to avoid opposition and secure funding sources from businesses and government.
- 🔒 Some party leaders are entangled in legal cases, limiting their ability to maneuver politically, thus seeking safety in large coalitions.
- 🔄 Aziz hopes that under new leadership, political parties will have more freedom in nominating candidates without being constrained by legal threats, fostering healthier democracy.
Q & A
What does 'kota kosong' mean in the context of the script?
-'Kota kosong' refers to an election situation where there is only one candidate running, and the option to vote for 'no candidate' or an empty box is available.
How many regions in Indonesia are facing elections with only one candidate?
-According to the data from the KPU RI, as of September 4, 2024, there are 41 regions across Indonesia where only one candidate is running.
Which areas in East Java will have elections with only one candidate?
-In East Java, the regions facing elections with only one candidate include Surabaya, Pasuruan, Gresik, Ngawi, and Trenggalek.
What will happen if the 'kota kosong' option wins the election?
-If the 'kota kosong' option wins, the KPU will organize a repeat local election (Pilkada) in the following year, 2025.
What is the role of MK Regulation No. 60 in this context?
-MK Regulation No. 60 allows political parties to nominate candidates independently with a minimum vote threshold, potentially changing the dynamic of political support.
Why do political parties form large coalitions ('koalisi obesitas') according to Abdul Aziz?
-According to Abdul Aziz, political parties form large coalitions to secure themselves because they do not want to be in opposition, which leaves them far from funding sources controlled by businessmen and government figures. Additionally, some party leaders are entangled in legal cases, limiting their ability to maneuver politically.
What might happen in 2025 if 'kota kosong' wins the elections in 2024?
-Abdul Aziz predicts that there will be fewer regions with 'kota kosong' after the repeat elections in 2025, as political dynamics might change and coalitions will adjust.
What impact does Abdul Aziz believe President Joko Widodo has had on legal cases involving political figures?
-Abdul Aziz believes that President Joko Widodo has used legal cases as a means of controlling political opponents, suggesting that many political figures are 'held hostage' by these cases.
How does Abdul Aziz expect the political landscape to change with Prabowo as president?
-Abdul Aziz is optimistic that if Prabowo becomes president, he will not use legal cases to control his opponents, unlike President Joko Widodo, which may lead to a more open and fair political environment.
What does Abdul Aziz hope will improve in Indonesian democracy?
-Abdul Aziz hopes that with fewer political figures being 'held hostage' by legal cases, political parties will have more freedom to choose and nominate regional leaders according to their internal rules, leading to healthier democracy.
Outlines
📊 The Rise of 'Empty City' Candidates in Indonesian Elections
This paragraph discusses how 41 regions in Indonesia only have a single candidate running in local elections, leading to the concept of 'empty city' elections. If no other candidates run, these regions would have to hold new elections if the 'empty city' option wins. It also mentions that 2025 would be the year of new elections if 'empty city' wins in 2024. KPU (Indonesia's General Elections Commission) is preparing rules to handle such outcomes, with the constitutional court's decision allowing political parties to nominate candidates with a minimum number of votes impacting the overall political dynamics.
🏛️ Political Parties’ Safety Nets Against 'Empty City'
This paragraph highlights the role of political coalitions, which are viewed as the best way to secure votes in elections, despite the presence of 'empty city' scenarios. The author expresses confidence that, if the 'empty city' option wins in 2025, efforts to anticipate such outcomes will be in place. Political parties are seen as key agents of change to eliminate the 'empty city' phenomenon by nominating more candidates.
🎓 Insights from a Political Expert on the 'Empty City' Phenomenon
Abdul Aziz, a political science lecturer, explains two reasons why political parties form large coalitions, referred to as 'obesity coalitions.' First, political parties avoid opposition due to financial dependency on business and political elites. Second, many party leaders face legal issues, making them vulnerable and incentivized to join coalitions to safeguard their positions. Aziz believes that if 'empty city' wins in 2024 and new elections are held, the number of 'empty city' victories will decline, leading to a shift in political power dynamics.
🔄 Potential Political Shift Under New Leadership
Aziz predicts that if Prabowo becomes president, there could be fewer legal threats used against political rivals, unlike during President Joko Widodo's term. This could result in more freedom for political parties to nominate candidates without fear of legal repercussions, leading to a healthier democracy. Aziz is hopeful that with the change in leadership and reduced manipulation of legal cases, political parties will feel freer to operate and choose candidates based on internal party rules.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Kota Kosong
💡Paslon Semata Wayang
💡Pilkada
💡Peraturan MK Nomor 60
💡Koalisi Gemuk
💡Pilkada Ulang
💡KPU
💡Kasus Hukum
💡Parpol
💡Prabowo
Highlights
41 regions across the country have 'empty city' conditions, meaning they only have one candidate pair for local elections.
According to KPU data as of September 4th, there is one province, 35 regencies, and 5 cities in Indonesia facing unopposed candidates.
In East Java, regions like Surabaya City, Pasuruan City, Gresik Regency, Ngawi Regency, and Trenggalek Regency are among those with unopposed candidates.
KPU is working on implementing Article 54D of Law No. 10 of 2016, which mandates a re-election if the 'empty city' wins against the single candidate.
If the 'empty city' wins, KPU plans to hold a re-election in 2025.
The MK Regulation No. 60 allows political parties to propose their own candidates with a minimum number of votes, potentially shifting the support dynamics.
In the 2024 elections, despite the new regulation, large party coalitions remain the best strategy to garner votes against the 'empty city.'
Political scientist Abdul Aziz from Brawijaya University Malang suggests two reasons for the formation of 'obese' party coalitions: fear of being in opposition, and leaders being trapped in legal cases.
Aziz believes that if the 'empty city' wins and re-elections are held, the number of 'empty cities' will significantly decrease.
He expects fewer legal case threats under a new leadership, potentially changing the political landscape.
Aziz hopes the new leadership will not use power to intimidate opposition, as he believes occurred under President Jokowi.
He anticipates more freedom for political parties to nominate local leaders according to internal rules, without external pressure.
The MK Regulation No. 60 aims to reduce the minimum vote threshold for political parties to nominate candidates independently.
Aziz is optimistic that democracy will become healthier with fewer political restrictions and manipulations.
The report ends with hopes for a more balanced political competition in future local elections, avoiding domination by large coalitions.
Transcripts
[Musik]
secara nasional ada 41 daerah seantero
negeri yang mempunyai kota kosong
artinya daerah tersebut hanya mempunyai
paslon semata wayang saja Menurut data
KPU RI per 4 September selesai masa
perpanjangan bakal calon Pilkada ada sat
provinsi 35 kabupaten dan 5 kota di
Indonesia yang akan melawan kota kosong
daerah diantaranya ada di Jawa
Timur daerah tersebut adalah kota
Surabaya Kota Pasuruan Kabupaten Gresik
Kabupaten Ngawi dan Kabupaten
Trenggalek pihak KPU Tengah menggodok
pelaksanaan aturan dari pasal 54d
undang-undang 10 tahun 2016 yang
mengatur pelaksanaan Pilkada ulang
coblos ulang dilakukan apabila ternyata
di daerah tersebut kota kosong menang
dan mengalahkan calon tunggal jika kota
kosong menang KPU memutuskan akan segera
menggelar Pilkada ulang pada tahun depan
alias
2025 pihak KPU sendiri mengklaim bahwa
dengan adanya peraturan MK nomor 60 yang
menyebutkan parpol bisa mengusung calon
sendiri dengan jumlah suara minimal
tertentu akan merubah percaturan suara
dukungan terhadap
paslon meski di Pilkada tahun 2024 ini
aturan tersebut tak banyak mempunyai
arti koalisi parpol gemuk nampaknya
masih menjadi jaring pengaman terbaik
untuk meraup suara Meski Harus
berkompetisi melawan kota
kalau dengan melihat upaya kpuri seperti
itu saya kok meyakini di 2025 kalaupun
nanti terjadi eh apa e ada kotak kosong
yang menang kemudian dilaksanakan 2025
saya meyakini eh sudah ada upaya
antisipasi untuk ke arah sana sehingga
eh betul-betul kotak kosong itu ada
lawannyaitu pembawa Angin perubahan
untuk menghapuskan kot kosong ini tak
lain tak bukan adalah partai politik
menurut Abdul Aziz dosen ilmu politik
FISIP Universitas Brawijaya Malang ada
dua hal yang membuat parpol mencari aman
dengan melahirkan koalisi obesitas
seperti sekarang ini pertama parpol tak
kuat menjadi oposisi karena jauh dari
sumber pendanaan yang dikangkangi
pengusaha dan penguasa kedua para
pimpinan parpol banyak yang tersandra
berbagai kasus hukum sehingga tak bisa
melakukan manuver apapun kecuali
mengamankan diri dengan bergabung di
Gem namun Abdul aiz optimistis dengan
pergantian pucuk pimpinan Negeri jika
kota kosong menang dan tahun depan
digelar Pilkada ulang jumlah kota kosong
akan jauh
berkurang kalau akan banyak kota kosong
yang menang saya menduga bahwa akan ada
sedikit perubahan sedikit perubahan ini
ya E formasi ya aryaangkali Kim di situ
tidak lagi terlampau mendominasi e akan
melakukan mulai berbagilah begitu karena
ketakutan kepada kasus hukum mungkin
agak berkurang karena Pak Joko sudah
turun kan sudah turun panggung gitu dan
dan apa eh penyanderaan dengan kasus
hukum ini kan sebennya lebih dilakukan
oleh Presiden Joko Widodo ya bukan oleh
presiden terpilih sekarang Nah mungkin
nanti pola kepemimpinan Pak Prabowo
kalau dilantik sebagai
presiden dugaan saya mudah-mudahan
terjadi ya mudah-mudahan terjadi tidak
akan menggunakan kekuasaannya untuk
menyandra lawannya kayak Pak Joko Kak
Presiden Joko Widodo ini gitu kan Abdul
Aziz berharap dengan tidak adanya
penyanderaan kasus hukum partai politik
lebih leluasa dalam memilih dan
mengajukan calon pimpinan daerah sesuai
ketentuan internal partai mereka tanpa
disandra atau didikte oleh pihak lain
terlebih dengan aturan MK 60 yang
mereduksi jumlah suara untuk parpol bisa
mengajukan calon secara mandiri sehingga
demokrasi negeri ini bisa sehat
kembali gancar Wicaksono Andreas
Wicaksono Surabaya Jawa Timur
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