Fim da Amazônia, extinção dos recifes de corais: o futuro do Brasil superaquecido | Carlos Nobre

UOL

12 Sept 202418:09

Summary

TLDRIn this discussion, Professor Carlos Nobre addresses the accelerating pace of climate change, highlighting the alarming rise in global temperatures, which reached 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2023. He stresses that extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, have grown exponentially in frequency and severity. Nobre expresses deep concern about Brazil’s wildfires, most of which are human-caused, and emphasizes the urgent need for more rigorous climate policies. He warns that surpassing a 2.5°C increase could trigger irreversible changes, threatening ecosystems like the Amazon and Pantanal, leading to catastrophic global consequences.

Takeaways

🌍 The speed of climate change has exceeded expectations, with global temperatures reaching 1.5°C, marking the warmest period in modern history.
🌡️ Extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and intense rainfall are growing exponentially as the planet's temperature rises.
🔥 In Brazil, 97% of wildfires are caused by human activity, with a very small percentage due to natural causes like lightning strikes.
😨 The speaker is alarmed by current climate projections, warning that even if emission reduction goals are met, the planet could still face catastrophic consequences.
💡 The Paris Agreement targets, aimed at reducing emissions by 43% by 2030, are seen as insufficient given the current rate of climate change.
🌪️ Brazil is likely to face both extreme droughts and heavy rainfall in the coming years, with future rainstorms becoming even more intense due to the warming atmosphere.
🌿 There's an urgent need for policy changes to prevent fires in Brazil's agriculture and cattle farming sectors, which still rely heavily on burning practices.
🔍 A robust system for monitoring and policing illegal fires is needed, as well as greater efforts to enforce environmental laws and prosecute offenders.
❗ Passing the 2.5°C threshold could result in irreversible damage, such as the loss of coral reefs, major deforestation of the Amazon, and the release of methane from permafrost areas.
🌳 Some cities, such as Singapore, are leading climate adaptation efforts by restoring urban forests, cooling cities, and mitigating the impact of extreme weather events.

Q & A

What is the main concern raised by Professor Carlos Nobre regarding climate change?
-Professor Carlos Nobre is concerned about the rapid acceleration of climate change. He emphasizes that while the scientific community anticipated some temperature rise, the current pace of warming, especially reaching 1.5ºC faster than expected, has led to extreme weather events growing exponentially.
How did the El Niño phenomenon contribute to the current climate situation?
-The El Niño phenomenon, particularly the strong one experienced in 2023, has contributed to significant temperature increases, with global temperatures reaching up to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. This has exacerbated extreme weather events worldwide.
What are the predicted consequences of the planet's temperature reaching 2.5ºC above pre-industrial levels?
-If global temperatures reach 2.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, catastrophic climate changes are expected. These include the loss of coral reefs, the destruction of up to 70% of the Amazon rainforest, and the thawing of permafrost, which could release massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Why does Professor Carlos Nobre feel 'apavorado' (terrified) about the current climate trajectory?
-Professor Carlos Nobre is 'terrified' because current efforts to reduce emissions, such as those outlined in the Paris Agreement, are not sufficient to prevent the planet from surpassing the 1.5ºC threshold. He fears that by 2050, the world may face irreversible damage with temperatures possibly reaching 2.5ºC, leading to severe climate disasters.
What percentage of wildfires in Brazil are caused by human activity, according to Professor Nobre?
-According to Professor Nobre, about 97% of wildfires in Brazil are caused by human activity, with most being intentional and related to illegal land clearing and other criminal activities. Only a small percentage is caused by natural events like lightning.
What immediate measures does Professor Nobre suggest to combat the issue of human-caused wildfires in Brazil?
-Professor Nobre suggests several measures: banning the use of fire for agricultural and livestock purposes, improving fire monitoring systems, increasing the number of firefighting brigades, and enhancing law enforcement efforts to combat criminal activities that cause wildfires.
How has global warming affected rainfall patterns in Brazil, according to the professor?
-Global warming has led to a decrease in annual rainfall in 80% of Brazil over the last 40 years. However, when rain does occur, it is often much more intense due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture, resulting in extreme rainfall events and flooding.
What role does deforestation play in altering Brazil's climate, particularly in the Amazon and Pantanal regions?
-Deforestation in the Amazon is disrupting the flow of 'flying rivers,' which are large volumes of water vapor that the Amazon sends to other parts of Brazil. This loss of moisture could lead to severe droughts in regions like the Pantanal, turning them into semi-arid environments similar to the Caatinga if global temperatures rise by 2.5ºC.
Which countries or cities are best prepared to face the impacts of climate change, based on Professor Nobre's observations?
-Countries like China, Japan, and cities like Singapore are better prepared for climate change impacts. These places have implemented 'urban sponge' strategies, which include reforesting cities and planting trees on buildings to reduce temperatures, manage water runoff, and create healthier urban microclimates.
What could happen to Brazil's habitability if global temperatures rise by 4ºC by 2100?
-If global temperatures rise by 4ºC by 2100, large parts of Brazil, especially tropical and equatorial regions, could become uninhabitable due to extreme heat. This scenario would lead to severe climate crises, making only regions near the poles and high-altitude areas potentially livable.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Surprising Speed of Climate Change

Professor Carlos Nobre discusses the unexpected speed of climate change, highlighting how scientific predictions in early 2023 did not anticipate the rapid increase in global temperatures. He notes that global temperatures jumped from a predicted 1.3°C rise to 1.5°C, marking 14 consecutive months above the 1.5°C threshold. This extreme heat, especially in the oceans, has caused a sharp rise in extreme weather events, which have increased exponentially rather than linearly. Nobre stresses that, in Brazil, most of the fires were caused by human actions rather than natural phenomena.

05:00

🔥 Human-Driven Fires in Brazil

Nobre explains that almost all of the fires in Brazil are human-caused, with only a minuscule percentage being the result of natural events like lightning. The fires in São Paulo, the Pantanal, and the Amazon are primarily started by people, with 97% in the past few weeks being deliberate. He expresses deep concern about the failure to meet the emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, stating that the current climate trajectory could lead to catastrophic global consequences by 2050, with potential irreversible damage if global temperatures rise by 2.5°C.

10:02

⛓️ Urgency in Combatting Climate Crime

Nobre emphasizes the criminal nature of many of the fires in Brazil, explaining that the majority of them are intentionally set by individuals. He calls for better fire monitoring systems and the need for large-scale fire brigades to extinguish the flames. However, he stresses that enforcing more efficient regulatory measures and punishing offenders must be a priority. He also suggests that agricultural practices in Brazil need to shift away from the use of fire, as many modern farms and cattle ranches have already adopted fire-free methods that are more productive.

15:02

🏞️ The Risk to the Pantanal and Amazon

Nobre raises concerns about the potential loss of the Pantanal due to climate change, predicting that it could transform into a more arid region similar to the Caatinga by 2070 if warming continues. He explains that the destruction of the Amazon would disrupt the 'flying rivers'—streams of moisture that feed rainfall across vast parts of Brazil and neighboring countries. This would significantly reduce rainfall in the Pantanal and Cerrado regions, causing more than 35% of the Pantanal to become permanently dry, leading to massive ecological consequences.

🏙️ Urban Solutions and Global Survival

Nobre discusses how certain cities, especially in Asia and Europe, are adapting to climate change by implementing 'urban sponge' techniques, which include planting trees and restoring urban vegetation to mitigate extreme weather. Cities like Singapore are leading in this effort by incorporating greenery into buildings, which lowers temperatures, improves air quality, and reduces flood risks. He warns, however, that if emissions continue unchecked and global temperatures rise by 4°C, large parts of the world, including tropical and equatorial regions, could become uninhabitable, leaving only the polar regions and high mountain ranges as livable areas.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, primarily due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. In the video, Professor Carlos Nobre discusses the rapid escalation of climate change, with rising global temperatures and extreme weather events. He emphasizes that the current rate of change was unforeseen by scientists and that humanity is witnessing exponential growth in extreme events like heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.

💡El Niño

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It has significant effects on global weather patterns. In the script, the professor mentions that the El Niño phenomenon was accurately predicted and contributed to record-breaking temperatures, which intensified climate-related disasters around the world, such as heatwaves and wildfires.

💡1.5°C Threshold

The 1.5°C threshold refers to the critical limit of global warming, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Scientists have warned that exceeding this temperature would lead to irreversible and severe climate impacts. In the video, Nobre mentions how global temperatures have already reached 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for over a year, and he expresses concern that if this continues, the world might face catastrophic consequences.

💡Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty signed in 2015 to combat climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to cap it at 1.5°C. Professor Nobre criticizes the current progress on emission reductions, stating that despite the agreement, global emissions continue to rise, which could push the planet beyond safe temperature thresholds, leading to catastrophic impacts by 2050.

💡Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events include severe weather phenomena such as heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and wildfires, which become more frequent and intense due to climate change. Nobre highlights that these events are not increasing linearly but exponentially as the planet warms. He references major disasters like Canada’s historic wildfires and the extreme heat that has affected Brazil and other countries.

💡Deforestation

Deforestation is the large-scale clearing of forests, often for agriculture or urban development. It has significant environmental consequences, including contributing to climate change by releasing stored carbon dioxide. The professor warns that deforestation in the Amazon, driven by illegal fires and human activity, is exacerbating climate change and that losing significant portions of the Amazon could have disastrous effects on global weather patterns.

💡Fossil Fuel Emissions

Fossil fuel emissions are the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. These emissions are the primary drivers of climate change. In the video, Nobre mentions that 70% of global emissions come from burning fossil fuels, and despite international goals to reduce emissions, they continue to rise, pushing the planet closer to dangerous temperature thresholds.

💡Tipping Points

Tipping points refer to critical thresholds where small changes can lead to drastic, irreversible changes in the climate system. Nobre expresses concern over more than 20 potential tipping points, including the extinction of coral reefs and the loss of the Amazon rainforest. He emphasizes that if global warming exceeds 2.5°C, these tipping points could be triggered, leading to devastating environmental consequences.

💡Amazon Rainforest

The Amazon Rainforest is the world's largest tropical rainforest and plays a critical role in regulating the Earth’s climate by absorbing large amounts of carbon dioxide. Nobre warns that deforestation and climate change could cause the Amazon to lose up to 70% of its forest cover if global temperatures rise above 2.5°C, which would drastically affect global weather patterns and reduce rainfall in key regions like the Pantanal.

💡Urban Heat Islands

Urban heat islands are areas within cities that experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas due to human activities, asphalt, and concrete trapping heat. Nobre discusses how cities like São Paulo experience temperatures up to 10°C higher than surrounding areas. He also highlights efforts in places like Singapore to combat this through urban reforestation and cooling initiatives, which reduce the impact of heatwaves.

Highlights

Carlos Nobre highlights the unexpected speed at which climate change is progressing, noting that global temperatures have exceeded predictions.

In 2023, the planet's temperature increased to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, marking a significant rise, especially with ocean temperatures breaking records.

Extreme climate events like heatwaves, droughts, intense rainfall, and wildfires have increased exponentially, not linearly, due to the rapid temperature rise.

Nobre emphasizes that most wildfires in Brazil are caused by human activity, not natural causes, with 97% being deliberately set.

Nobre expresses deep concern over the failure to reduce emissions as per the Paris Agreement targets, warning that exceeding 1.5ºC may lead to irreversible consequences.

The scientist fears that reaching 2.5ºC by 2050 would trigger catastrophic changes, such as the extinction of coral reefs and the loss of 50-70% of the Amazon rainforest.

If temperatures continue to rise, large areas of the permafrost in Siberia, Canada, and Alaska could melt, releasing massive amounts of greenhouse gases.

Nobre stresses the urgency of enforcing stricter emission reduction policies, as the current pace will lead to a global temperature increase of 2.5ºC by 2050.

He notes that deforestation and wildfires in the Amazon, Pantanal, and Cerrado are largely driven by criminal activity, posing a significant environmental threat.

The Brazilian government needs to transition agriculture and livestock farming away from fire-based practices, adopting more modern, sustainable methods.

Nobre compares the scale of criminal fires to illegal gold mining in the Yanomami Indigenous Territory, calling for a similar military-led crackdown.

He warns that continued warming will severely reduce rainfall in the Pantanal and Cerrado, turning them into arid regions like the Caatinga.

The destruction of the Amazon rainforest would disrupt water cycles, affecting precipitation patterns across South America and beyond.

Urban heat islands, like those in São Paulo, can be mitigated through reforestation and green infrastructure, reducing temperatures by 4-5ºC.

Nobre concludes that if global temperatures rise by 4ºC by 2100, much of the planet, including tropical regions of Brazil, will become uninhabitable.