Thyssenkrupp Aktie unter 3 Euro – wo sind die Chancen?

Summary

In this financial discussion, the focus is on the struggling steel industry and the stock performance of TÜSSEN Group. The conversation revolves around the company's challenges, including management shake-ups, economic downturns, and plummeting steel prices. The speakers consider the potential of a reverse bonus certificate as an investment opportunity, speculating on the likelihood of the stock recovering within a set timeframe. They also touch on the broader implications of the industry's troubles, including the impact on the German economy and the possibility of a shift towards green steel production.

Takeaways

• 📉 The discussion revolves around the declining stock price of TÜSSEN Group, with a focus on the company's steel division.
• 🔍 The speaker suggests that the stock price, which has been falling, should eventually rebound, but current charts show a continued downward trend.
• 🏗️ The company is facing significant challenges, including a management shake-up, weak global economic conditions, and reduced demand for steel.
• 🌐 There's mention of a Czech investor interested in the steel division, but the situation is complex due to guarantees and negotiations.
• 🏭 The core issue is the steel division's overcapacity and the need to reduce production, which is exacerbating existing tensions within the company.
• 💡 The speaker considers the possibility of a turnaround with the company focusing on green steel production, which could be a profitable niche in Germany.
• 📈 The current steel price is very low, and there's a lack of demand, which is reflected in the company's stock price and the broader industry's production forecasts.
• 💼 There's skepticism about the ability of new management to quickly resolve the company's issues, given the complexity and history of challenges in the steel industry.
• 📊 The speaker discusses a financial product called a 'reverse bonus' that could offer returns if the stock price does not rise above a certain level within a set period.
• ⚠️ There's a clear risk warning about the potential for total loss with such speculative investment products, emphasizing the importance of understanding the risks involved.

Q & A

What is the main concern regarding TÜSSENGRUPP's stock discussed in the script?

The main concern is the significant drop in TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price, which is attributed to various factors including management issues, economic downturns, and weak demand for steel.

What recent changes in TÜSSENGRUPP's management are mentioned in the script?

The script mentions the departure of Sigma Gabriel and the need for new personnel to be appointed, which adds to the uncertainty and challenges faced by the company.

What is the current state of the steel market according to the script?

The script describes the steel market as being in a weak state with a significant drop in steel prices, influenced by factors such as a global economic slowdown and reduced demand from major steel consumers like the automotive industry.

What is the proposed plan for TÜSSENGRUPP's steel division mentioned in the script?

The script discusses a plan to spin off the steel division and have a Czech investor join, who is expected to bring substantial capital but also demands guarantees and a significant say in the company's operations.

What is the significance of the reverse bonus mentioned in the script?

The reverse bonus is a financial product that pays out if the TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price does not rise above a certain threshold within a specified period. It's seen as a speculative investment based on the expectation that the stock will not recover significantly.

What is the barrier price for the reverse bonus product discussed in the script?

The barrier price for the reverse bonus product is €3.90. If the stock price stays below this level for the next 100 days, the bonus is paid out.

What is the potential return on the reverse bonus product if the conditions are met?

If the conditions are met, the potential return on the reverse bonus product is 10% of the investment within 100 days, which translates to approximately 38% annualized.

What is the maximum potential loss with the reverse bonus product if the stock price recovers?

The maximum potential loss with the reverse bonus product is the full amount invested, as the product becomes worthless if the stock price exceeds the barrier price.

What is the speaker's opinion on the likelihood of TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price recovering significantly in the next few months?

The speaker expresses a pessimistic view, suggesting that the probability of TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price recovering more than 34% in the next few months is quite low due to the complex issues the company is facing.

What advice does the speaker give regarding investing in TÜSSENGRUPP or similar speculative products?

The speaker advises caution, recommending that one should only invest in what they understand and not put in more money than they can afford to lose, especially with speculative products like the reverse bonus.