Master Price Action From The Best! - Al Brooks | Trader Interview

Desire To Trade Podcast | Weekly Interviews with Successful Traders
7 Aug 202254:27

Summary

TLDRIn this insightful discussion, the speaker, Al, shares his expertise on price action trading in the stock market. He begins by confidently asserting that he can teach anyone to make money in the stock market within a minute. Al emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends and patterns, suggesting that buying a stock index fund or ETF and holding it for an extended period, like 20-30 years, is a virtual guarantee for making money. He discusses the market's historical performance, noting its tendency to rise over time despite periodic downturns. Al also touches on the influence of news channels and advises against relying solely on TV experts for trading decisions. Instead, he encourages traders to focus on price action and learn to read charts to predict market movements effectively. The conversation delves into various trading strategies, including day trading and the benefits of trading on different time frames. Al also addresses the unpredictability of markets and the need for traders to be adaptable. He concludes by sharing his website, BrooksTradingCourse.com, where interested individuals can learn more about his trading courses and resources.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The stock market has historically shown a pattern of rallying after a significant crash, followed by a period of being sideways for a decade to allow fundamentals to catch up with the price.
  • 💡 Price action is a critical aspect of trading, and understanding it can lead to more informed decisions rather than relying solely on news reports which may be sensationalized.
  • 🎯 Technical analysis, such as chart patterns and moving averages, can provide traders with a logical approach to identifying potential market trends and entry/exit points.
  • 🚫 Avoid making trading decisions based on TV experts' opinions, as they are not managing your trade and may not share your investment time frame or goals.
  • 🤑 Long-term investment in a diversified portfolio, such as a stock index fund or ETF, held for 20-30 years is a strategy that has a high probability of making money, regardless of market fluctuations.
  • 📊 Trading on smaller time frames, such as a daily or even a five-minute chart, can potentially yield higher returns than long-term holding, but requires more active management and understanding of market trends.
  • ⏰ Market timing is crucial; knowing when to buy or sell based on patterns and indicators can maximize profits, but it's also essential to manage risk with stop orders and position sizing.
  • 🚨 Be cautious of trading in markets that are not well-regulated or have a high potential for government intervention, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which can introduce additional risks.
  • 🤔 The market is always in a state of balance with an equal number of buyers and sellers; understanding this can help traders gauge the likelihood of a price move in a particular direction.
  • 🧐 Algorithmic trading by institutions now dominates the market, leading to more logical and rational price movements, which can be advantageous for traders who use similar systematic approaches.
  • 🌐 The principles of technical analysis apply across all markets and time frames, making it a versatile tool for traders regardless of the specific market they are interested in.

Q & A

  • What is the one-minute lesson on making money in the stock market as mentioned in the transcript?

    -The one-minute lesson is to buy a stock index fund, a mutual fund, or an ETF that mirrors the stock market and hold it for 20 or 30 years. Historically, this has proven to be profitable due to the general upward trend of the market over time.

  • What does the speaker predict about the stock market's behavior in the next few years?

    -The speaker predicts that the stock market will likely experience a period of being mostly sideways for about a decade, similar to patterns observed after significant rallies in the past.

  • Why does the speaker believe that the market will eventually go higher, despite short-term fluctuations?

    -The speaker believes the market will go higher due to the constant increase in the world's population and productivity per person, which are fundamental drivers of economic growth and market value.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on trading based on news channels like CNN?

    -The speaker advises not to rely on news channels for trading decisions. He suggests that news channels are more focused on viewership and advertising revenue rather than providing sound trading advice.

  • How does the speaker describe the role of institutions and algorithms in the stock market?

    -The speaker describes institutions and algorithms as the primary drivers of the market. They control a significant portion of the market's volume and their logical, calculated trading based on various programs and strategies influences market movements.

  • What is the speaker's view on trading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?

    -The speaker is skeptical about trading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin due to the lack of institutional control, potential for abrupt moves based on emotions, and the risk of government regulation impacting its value.

  • Why does the speaker suggest that Bitcoin is not acting as 'digital gold'?

    -The speaker argues that Bitcoin's price volatility and its recent price movements, which do not mirror those of gold, disqualify it from being considered 'digital gold.' He also mentions that the concept was more of a marketing narrative than a factual representation of Bitcoin's characteristics.

  • What is the speaker's advice for traders regarding the recognition of a market trend reversal?

    -The speaker advises traders to look for chart patterns such as a double bottom or a wedge bottom, as well as strong breakouts from trading ranges. He also emphasizes the importance of buy signal bars indicating aggressive buying.

  • How does the speaker explain the concept of 'fair value' in the context of the stock market?

    -The speaker explains that the market tends to oscillate around a 'fair value' where both bulls and bears agree on the price. This fair value can change based on fundamental changes, such as shifts in interest rates or earnings reports, which can cause the market to move to a new trading range.

  • What is the speaker's recommendation for individuals looking to learn more about price action trading?

    -The speaker recommends visiting brookstradingcourse.com for a systematic and precise approach to learning price action trading. He mentions that his course provides clear guidelines and strategies for traders.

  • How does the speaker describe the typical behavior of institutions in the market during a strong rally?

    -The speaker describes that during a strong rally, institutions are mostly buying, and even when the market tries to go down, they continue to buy due to the expectation of a higher price. However, if the market stops going up for a few days, institutions may start to sell, leading to a change in market behavior.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Stock Market Mastery in a Minute

The speaker confidently asserts that they can teach anyone to make money in the stock market within a minute. They introduce their guest, Brooks, an experienced trader with decades of market exposure. The conversation revisits a past discussion about the rise of Bitcoin and its impact on price action. Brooks analyzes recent market downturns, referencing a monthly chart of the S&P cash index, and discusses the market's rally post-pandemic crash. He anticipates a market correction but doesn't expect it to drop significantly, hinting at a potential sideways market trend in the coming decade, drawing parallels with historical market patterns.

05:01

💹 Long-term Investment Strategy and Market Confidence

The paragraph outlines a virtual guarantee for making money in the stock market through long-term investment. It emphasizes buying a stock index fund or ETF that mirrors the market and holding it for an extended period, like 20 to 30 years. The speaker shares anecdotal evidence of a friend who adopted this strategy, consistently buying during market dips, and became extremely wealthy. The discussion highlights the importance of not panicking during market crashes and the potential for higher returns with shorter time frame trading charts.

10:03

📉 Understanding Bear Markets and Trading Strategies

The speaker delves into the intricacies of bear markets, identifying patterns like lower highs and lows, and contrasting them with bull trends. They discuss the potential for making more money through day trading on shorter time frame charts, such as a five-minute chart, compared to long-term holding. The paragraph also touches on the importance of identifying the sweet spot in trading time frames to maximize profits while avoiding the pitfalls of scalping or overly fast trading.

15:05

📈 Price Action Over News: The Key to Successful Trading

This section emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action rather than news reports when trading. The speaker criticizes TV news for prioritizing viewer ratings over accurate market analysis, suggesting that the content is more entertainment than education. They argue that understanding price action and chart patterns is more beneficial than listening to TV experts, whose predictions are often short-sighted and not tailored to an individual's trading strategy.

20:06

🚫 The Perils of Following TV Experts' Financial Advice

The speaker warns against taking financial advice from TV experts, explaining that their primary goal is to entertain rather than educate. They highlight the difference between an expert's long-term predictions and the immediate actions a trader should take. The speaker also discusses how TV experts tend to reflect the current market sentiment rather than provide balanced insights, which can mislead viewers. The advice is to view TV as a source of entertainment and not financial guidance.

25:07

🤔 The Market's Balance and the Role of Institutions

The paragraph explores the concept of the market's balance, where there are always an equal number of buyers and sellers, even during significant price movements. It discusses how institutions and their algorithms drive the market based on logical decision-making. The speaker also addresses the criticism that markets are driven by irrational behavior, countering that institutions and their algorithms promote rational trading patterns. They also touch upon the unpredictability of markets and the importance of managing risk.

30:08

🚫 Skepticism Towards Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

The speaker expresses skepticism towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, citing concerns about regulatory risks and the potential for government-issued cryptocurrencies to replace them. They also discuss the volatility and unpredictability of Bitcoin, comparing its price movements to those of the NASDAQ. The speaker prefers trading stocks or futures due to the reduced risk and more established regulatory environment. They also mention the association of Bitcoin with criminal activities and the ethical concerns this raises.

35:09

📊 Technical Analysis and Trading Patterns Across Markets

The speaker emphasizes the universality of trading patterns across different markets, regardless of the time frame. They argue that these patterns are a reflection of rational human behavior and can be applied to any market, including Bitcoin. The paragraph discusses various technical analysis tools and strategies, such as wedge patterns and double bottoms, and how they can be used to predict market movements. The speaker also addresses the challenges of trading in a volatile market and the importance of risk management.

40:10

📉 Market Behavior in Downturns and Upturns

This section discusses the behavior of the market during downturns and how it reflects the actions of disappointed bulls and bears. It explains the process of short covering at the start of a bull trend and profit-taking from long liquidation at the start of a bear trend. The speaker also describes how market trends begin and the role of trader sentiment in driving market movements.

45:11

🔄 Market Oscillation and the Concept of Fair Value

The speaker explains how markets tend to oscillate around a perceived fair value, which can change based on fundamental changes, such as interest rate adjustments or earnings reports. They discuss trading ranges and how they represent a balance between buyer and seller sentiment. The paragraph also touches on how external factors can shift the market's perception of what constitutes a fair price, leading to new trading ranges.

50:12

📚 Resources for Learning Price Action Trading

The speaker provides information on how viewers can learn more about price action trading. They mention BrooksTradingCourse.com as the primary resource, where viewers can access a chat room and other educational materials. The speaker also mentions the systematic and precise nature of the course, which is appreciated by many traders for its clarity and focus on real-world application.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly-held companies are issued and traded, either through exchanges or over-the-counter markets. It is a key concept in the video as the speaker discusses strategies for making money in the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding price action and long-term investment.

💡Price Action

Price action refers to the movement of prices on a chart, which reflects the aggregate of all market participants' decisions. In the video, the speaker, Brooks, is an expert in price action and uses it to analyze market trends, predict future price movements, and devise trading strategies.

💡Moving Average

A moving average is a widely used indicator in stock trading that helps smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price. The speaker discusses how traders are willing to buy at an above-average price for a long time, indicating a bullish trend, and how the moving average can be a key level for potential reversals or continuation of trends.

💡Bear Market

A bear market is characterized by a prolonged period of falling prices, typically defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs. The video mentions bear markets and trends, illustrating how they can affect price action and the importance of recognizing them for trading decisions.

💡Bull Market

Conversely, a bull market is marked by rising prices and a general optimistic outlook for the economy. The speaker talks about the potential for a bull market to develop and how traders can capitalize on this by buying during uptrends.

💡Buy and Hold Strategy

This strategy involves purchasing stocks and holding onto them for an extended period, regardless of market fluctuations. The video emphasizes the effectiveness of this approach, particularly for long-term investors, by highlighting historical trends that show the market's overall upward trajectory.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical price movements to predict future market behavior. The video is centered around technical analysis, with Brooks discussing various chart patterns and indicators that can signal potential market reversals or continuations.

💡Trend Reversal

A trend reversal occurs when the direction of the market changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa. The speaker identifies patterns and signals that may indicate a trend reversal, which is crucial for traders to time their entries and exits effectively.

💡Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels are price points on a chart that tend to either deter the movement of an asset's price or act as a launching point for its continuation. In the video, these levels are discussed as key areas where traders can anticipate potential changes in the market's direction.

💡Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

While not the central theme, the video touches on the rise and impact of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies on the market. The speaker shares his perspective on the volatility and risks associated with these digital assets, comparing their price action to traditional markets.

💡Day Trading

Day trading involves buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day, with the goal of capitalizing on small price movements. The video contrasts day trading with long-term investing, suggesting that while day trading can yield higher returns, it also comes with higher risks and requires more active management.

Highlights

The speaker confidently claims they can teach anyone to make money in the stock market within a minute.

Discusses the importance of price action and its influence on market trends with decades of experience.

Analyzes the recent market crash and its impact on price action, comparing it to past market behavior.

Predicts a potential sideways market trend for the next decade, based on historical patterns.

Advises on the strategy of buying a stock index fund and holding it for an extended period to ensure profits.

Shares a personal anecdote about a friend who consistently bought stocks during market dips, leading to significant wealth accumulation.

Explains the concept that trading on smaller time frame charts can yield higher returns than longer-term investments.

Warns against the pitfalls of extremely short-term trading, such as a 15-second chart, due to the speed of market changes.

Identifies a 'sweet spot' in trading where the time frame and strategy can maximize profits.

Provides trading tips on how to enter and exit positions based on chart patterns and moving averages.

Criticizes the reliance on TV news and expert opinions for making trading decisions, advocating for price action analysis instead.

Details how to recognize trend reversals in the market through chart patterns and strong breakouts.

Speaks on the rational behavior of institutions in the market and how it creates predictable patterns.

Addresses the unpredictability and risks associated with trading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, compared to traditional markets.

Advises against trading Bitcoin due to its amateurish perception and potential for facilitating illegal activities.

Discusses the concept of 'fair value' in the market and how trading ranges represent a balance between buyers and sellers.

Provides resources for those interested in learning more about price action trading through Brooks Trading Course.

Transcripts

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i can teach anyone to make money in the

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stock market and i can teach them in one

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minute okay and here we go here's the

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one minute lesson on how to definitely

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make money in the stock market

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welcome back everyone today we're

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sitting down once again with our brooks

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al is a master when it comes to price

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action been in the market for a

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many many decades so a lot of years in

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the market of course uh good to talk to

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you again today al good to discuss price

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action again see how you are doing and

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kind of catch up on we discussed last

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time so we'll come back in the podcast

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once again thank you very much again

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it's always good to hear from you i hope

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you're doing well definitely definitely

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so we'll have to catch up and kind of

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see what happens since last time we

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spoke i believe it was around

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a year ago or some kind of close to that

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aspect and i believe we're talking about

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the the rise of bitcoin the rise of

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cryptocurrencies and how that impacted

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price action now what we've seen in the

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past let's say

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month two months or so was the uh kind

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of like a crash of the markets in

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general the s p been going down the

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american market has been going down

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quite a lot tell me kind of what that

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means for price action these days and

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kind of what you see is changing in the

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market compared to a few months back all

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right well this is a monthly chart of

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the s p

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cash index and

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we had an incredible rally this is the

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pandemic crash that we had

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in 2020 and then we had a very big rally

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after that

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and when we were going up here everybody

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knew there would be some profit taking

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at some point we had been above the

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moving average for 20 bars more than 20

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bars

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and

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traders are willing to pay above an

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average price a 20 bar exponential

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moving average is one measure of what is

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average and traders have been eager to

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buy

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at an above average price for a long

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time

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so you'd expect when they're finally

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able to pay an average price they'd be

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very eager to to do it so i was pretty

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confident that

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whatever reversal we got would not go

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down all that far

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and i thought there'd be buyers around

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the moving average and we broke below it

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a couple months ago we broke bullet last

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month

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and then in july we rallied back up to

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it

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so i don't think there's much left to

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the correction you know can we get below

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this low i think so can we get down here

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the pre-pandemic high around 3300

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and i think maybe a 30 chance

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i've been saying

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for a few years that at some point in

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the next three to five years the stock

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market would go sideways for about a

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decade

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and i still think that's true

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and it's simply because that's what the

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market typically does

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let me see if i can

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go back here

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in the 90s we had a very big rally and a

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40 50 correction another 56 correction

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and the market was sideways for a decade

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after a very big rally

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back in the 50s and 60s we had a very

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big rally

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and then we were sideways for a decade

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we had several corrections 30 40 percent

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and i think what we're doing now is

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a similar thing we're

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going far

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high far higher in price than what is

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justified by the fundamentals

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and it will take about a decade for the

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fundamentals to get caught up with the

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price

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is this the final high

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probably not anybody looking to pick a

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high and a bold friend is making a

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mistake

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is this the final high is this the final

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high which of these is the final high

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you know chances are in a bold trend

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you're not going to know the final high

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until a long time afterwards so i still

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think this is not the final high

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but i believe that the market is going

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to be doing this over the next decade

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and what's the reason well the reason is

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technological

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this is accelerating at a parabolic

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wedge by climax and when it does that

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you get profit takers and the market

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goes sideways for a long time

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so i think we'll probably get one more

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new high maybe we'll get up to 5000

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maybe a little bit more but at some

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point in the next few years it'll be

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comparable to this

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and will be mostly sideways for about a

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decade

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i want to say one other thing

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i don't have a yearly chart

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but if this was a yearly chart

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going back 100 years you'd see that

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the market has gone pretty much straight

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up

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it crashed in 1929 and it lost 89

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percent of its value back in 1929

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and i don't know if i go back to 1929

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here i don't think so

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and 89

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loss is obviously

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a huge loss

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and on the daily chart there was a very

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protracted bear trend that lasted four

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years a bear trend is a series of more

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highs and lower lows

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a bear market

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is a market that sold off 20 percent

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from the high

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and this is the monthly chart we've had

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lots of bear markets where it fell more

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than 20 percent

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here here here

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and we've had a bear trend here a series

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of lower lows and lower highs and a bear

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trend here

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but this is not a bare trend on the

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monthly chart we don't really have lower

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highs and lower lows yet so it's a bear

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market

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and i'm taking a a

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a long way around to talking about the

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yearly chart

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which i i don't have the yearly chart

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the yearly chart of the stock market has

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never been in a bare trend

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it has never had a series of lower highs

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and lower lows even though it lost 90

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percent of its value in the crash in

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1929 it was just a four-bar pullback in

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a bold trend that had began with

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the beginning of all markets thousands

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and thousands of years ago

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so um

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you know the market is constant it's

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always going to go higher

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it may pull back for a few years it may

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go sideways for a decade but it's always

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going to go higher

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and this is a lead up to me

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um teaching everybody how to make money

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in the stock market virtually guaranteed

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99 chance i can teach anyone to make

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money in the stock market and i can

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teach them in one minute

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okay and here we go here's the one

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minute

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lesson on how to

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definitely make money in the stock

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market

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if you're a 30 year old person or a 20

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year old person

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um a 40 year old person

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and you can

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buy

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a stock index fund some kind of mutual

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fund or etf that mirrors the stock

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market and hold it for 20 or 30 years

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you're definitely going to make money

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trading stocks

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right your debt because that's always

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been the case for thousands of years the

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world's population has increased

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productivity per person has increased

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and

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it's going to be increasing for the rest

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of your life at some point the

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population will stop increasing

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but that's not going to be in your

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lifetime

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so absolute guarantee

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if you buy

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a

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fund that mirrors the stock market and

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you hold it for 20 or 30 years for

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example in your retirement account

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you're going to make money

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and you just leave it there and you

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don't panic out during

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36 percent crashes here you don't panic

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out during 56 percent crashes here i

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have a friend

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and

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i'll call him um

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forest

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and

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i never thought he was particularly

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bright

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and i've i've known him since college

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he is a lawyer

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and all throughout his life

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anytime he had leftover cash he'd uh

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save it

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until the stock market fell 10

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and then he'd put all of that cash into

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the stock market and he did this for 40

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years

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and even though he's not a particularly

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bright guy

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you know he's extremely rich

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you know because for 40 years all of his

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cash has been putting in the stock

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market

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every time the market drops 10 percent

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i

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talked with him back here early in the

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pandemic when the market was down 10

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and he said

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al i just i had a bunch of cash i just

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bought the stock market and i said

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forest you know i'm using forest as his

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name as in forest gump

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i said forrest

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why are you buying the stock market when

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it's collapsing you could probably buy

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it down 20 or 30 percent

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and he said

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al i don't care

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all my life every time the market is

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down 10 i take all my cash

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and i buy more stock and i hold it

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and

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he's right you know so he bought here

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and even though we sold off

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23 here

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he still made a lot of money on his new

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cash and then

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he started trading

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back in the 70s

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i don't even have it on the screen

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back here

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so back there the stock market was

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around

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200

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and the stock market is now

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4 000

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so he made 20 times his original money

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and so

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if you want to make money if

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anybody can make money in the stock

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market if they buy and hold now

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with that in mind

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can you make more money

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if you

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buy on a smaller time frame chart and

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get in and get out yeah somebody trading

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a daily short a fast monday trader

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is going to make more money than

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somebody

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this is the daily chart

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he'll buy he'll make more money than

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someone who just keeps putting all of

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his money in a retirement account and

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holding it forever this is a daily chart

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it's a bear trend we have lower highs we

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have lower lows bear trend and now we're

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starting to get

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higher lows

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we have a higher low here some higher

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highs

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the bulls are hoping this is the start

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of a bull trend and it might be i don't

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know yet

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however a really good trader

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a trader who buys here and then sells

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there buys here and sells there

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is going to make a lot more money on his

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on

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his account than somebody who buys and

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holds for 40 years

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okay so somebody trading a daily chart

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can make a higher rate of return than

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someone trading a

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monthly chart

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and someone trading

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an intraday chart let's say a

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five-minute chart

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is going to make more money

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for example here's the e-mini 5-minute

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chart and somebody trading a five-minute

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chart

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a good trader is going to make more

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money than somebody trading a daily

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chart

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and so how far down can this go

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here's a 15-second chart

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here every bar is 15 seconds

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and theoretically somebody trading a 15

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second chart really well

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is going to make more money than

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somebody trading a five-minute chart

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right so there's some sweet spot in here

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between trading a yearly chart where you

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know you're going to make money

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and trading a 15 second or even a five

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second chart

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where you're going to maximize your

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profit

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and for most people trading a very small

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time frame like a 15 second chart or two

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second chart here's a

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a two second chart

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okay

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um you're going to lose money the stuff

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happens so fast

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you're not going to be able to place

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orders quick enough also if you're

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scalping you're typically looking for a

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profit that is less than the size of the

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most recent bar

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so

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everything will be happening so fast

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you're going to lose money

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so two seconds is too small

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a yearly chart is too big and where's

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the sweet spot where can a person make

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the most money

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if you have the time to be a day trader

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trading a five minute chart like this or

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a 15-minute chart

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like this is really good

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once you learn how to read charts you

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can make a lot of money

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and you don't even have to be all that

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bright

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okay here's a five minute chart you know

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are you going to be selling or are you

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going to be buying look at the past

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couple days here

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you know there's zero reason to sell

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right so you buy and you say well now

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how do i buy it's just going straight up

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well

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you can just buy at the market or every

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time the market has a bar closing near

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its high you just buy on a stop above

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the high of the bar and you put a

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protective stop below the most recent

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level

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and you can add to it as it goes up and

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you can make a lot of money on a

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five-minute chart and you don't have to

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be

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you don't have to be a genius to do it

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but the art is knowing

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when a trend is likely to continue

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or when it's

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likely to reverse

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and also if they're optimal

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there are all kinds of little patterns

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taking place in here

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and there's a lot of stuff going on in

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here so there are a lot of tricks to it

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that can help me make more money the

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market's been above the moving average

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for about 20 bars place a limit order to

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buy at the moving average a lot of bull

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bars

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you place an order to buy below the low

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of the prior bar the first bear bar

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closing here it's low you buy the close

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of it a bull bar closing near as high

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you buy on a stop above it so there's

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all kinds of little stuff that you can

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learn

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that will

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help you do pretty well as a trader

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i love how we just talk about how the

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market's going in the new gym straight

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to the charts to how to trade it that

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that shows how amazing you want to

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trader and how you think about like all

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the price section there

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that's just that's just crazy but i i

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didn't like that stuff so one thing i'm

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really curious about is the fact that

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you know like when you look at the

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the news events or especially the news

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like you look at cnn or whatever like

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you news channel

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they talk about like the crash in the

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market right now how the market is

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crashing so bad it's like the bull trend

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or something but then you look at this

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like a price action level that's on a

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higher time frame like

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showing us a monthly chart and it looks

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completely different doesn't look that

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bad and that kind of shows why i think

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you should not focus just on the news

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but most mostly on price action

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and it shows that if you just think

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about per section then it's like not

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actually what you hear on the news it's

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different

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so how can someone kind of make their

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own amount of the chart based on price

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action how does that kind of work out

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you brought up a few i think interesting

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points

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let me go to the daily chart and

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on television

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the purpose of cnn

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is not to help you or help me or help

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any of the viewers

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the purpose of cnn is to help

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the shareholders the people who want

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stock in the company

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and the way they do that is

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getting as many eyes

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watching the show as possible so they

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can charge more for advertising

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all right so

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cnn is going to do whatever it can

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to

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make more money get more viewers

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and if the market is going down

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on tv typically they'll put on one

play15:36

expert

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right

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and at any instant there are as many

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institutions buying as selling when it's

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doing this there might be a few more

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buyers but there's still a lot of

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sellers when it's doing this there are a

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lot of sellers but there's still a lot

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of buyers when it's doing this cnn is

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going to put on a bear

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and that bear they're going to introduce

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the bear by saying this guy predicted

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the crash

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in 2007 right

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and as if he's

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going to be able to predict every crash

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and when it's going down here he's going

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to he'll be saying oh the market's going

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down to 2000. it's going to go below the

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pandemic crash right

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and when it's doing this they'll put a

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bull on some guys are just always

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bullish or always bearish when it's

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doing this they'll put a bull on oh the

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market's going to go up forever

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right and then it does this

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never pay attention to

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what the experts on tv say because

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whenever the market's going down they're

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only going to put a bear on and there

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are bulls i'm a ball

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when the market was down here i said the

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market is going to rally for a couple

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months and close these two gaps and

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probably get up here

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which it's doing

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on the monthly chart

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at the end of last year i said the

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market will probably correct for a few

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months at some point in the first half

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of 2022

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and then rally into this into the second

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half of the year possibly up to a new

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high

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and we sold off for six months i said

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two or three months it sold off for six

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months i said i thought the low would be

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about um thirty seven hundred maybe

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thirty nine hundred there's a gap here

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in the monthly chart

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around

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30

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below 30-900 and i thought that gap

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would get filled and the market would go

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up

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and

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so so far it's doing what i expected it

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we came down we tested moving average we

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closed that gap on the monthly chart and

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we're reversing and i think we'll go up

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over the second half of the year we may

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test down and get some kind of a double

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bottom here we had a double bottom here

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another double bottom attempt so we may

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here down and then down a few months

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later so i wouldn't be surprised if we

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test back down you know maybe september

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or october

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but i think the market is going to be

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sideways to up for the remainder of the

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year

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going back to your question about tv

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experts i'll put up a daily chart again

play18:06

when the market's way up here

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and the guy on tv says ah it's going

play18:10

higher buy

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right

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well he might be right

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but should you buy because he says buy

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apple daily children of apple so up here

play18:20

the guy on tv is saying buy the market

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apple's great stock warren buffett owns

play18:25

it it's going up should you buy apple

play18:28

well

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when a guy on tv talks

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he's

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he's not managing your trade

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right he's saying buy apple well he's

play18:37

right apple will eventually go above

play18:39

this price

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and it might do it over the next few

play18:42

months right but he's not managing your

play18:45

trade and when he says apple is a buy

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what does he mean by that

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does he mean apple is going to be higher

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three or four years from now

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he might does he mean apple is going to

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be higher a month from now

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he might but he's not telling you

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so when somebody in tv says buy this or

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sell that

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um

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they're not managing your trade what's

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their time frame when will they get out

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so you should never never never

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do anything

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that someone on television recommends

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right if you bought apple up here and he

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was saying apple was going a lot higher

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you know what would you have done when

play19:21

it lost 30 percent

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right same with the stock market if uh

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if you bought at the top

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when the idiot on tv is saying it's

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going a lot higher what do you do when

play19:32

it's down 10 20 23

play19:35

you know they're not going to manage

play19:36

your trade tv

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has one purpose

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one purpose for you

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a different purpose for the advertiser

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the purpose for the

play19:46

the television company cnn their purpose

play19:49

is to make money for the people in stock

play19:52

your purpose when you're watching tv

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and for no matter what show it is is

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entertainment you want to feel good

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that's the only reason to watch tv

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right you don't watch tv to make money

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you know

play20:06

you're not going to make money watching

play20:07

tv you're going to get entertained so

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anything you see on tv

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any advice you get on tv

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just look at it as as entertainment

play20:17

you know as i said up here

play20:20

the heart of the market go down when the

play20:22

guy on tv said it's going up

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because the market is constantly in

play20:26

balance there there are constantly just

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about as many buyers as sellers

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and who's selling up here well

play20:34

institutions who think it's overpriced

play20:35

who's buying down here institutions who

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think it's now cheap right so even when

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it's doing this there are institutions

play20:43

saying wow

play20:44

this is this is great what an

play20:46

opportunity to buy and they're buying

play20:48

but they're not the guys you're seeing

play20:49

on tv

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the they only put the um

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the bears on tv when it's going down and

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just think about it look at apple what

play20:57

happened when it went below this low it

play20:59

went up

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what happened below this low it went up

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what happened below this low it went

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back up above that low below this low it

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went up it below this low it went up

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if it's so bearish why is it going up

play21:12

because you got bulls buying at every

play21:14

new low expecting it to go back above

play21:16

the prior lows

play21:17

all right and at some point the bears

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stop selling because they see all the

play21:21

way down

play21:22

bulls buying at every low are making

play21:25

money

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and if you're a bear

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and you're seeing bulls making money at

play21:30

every new low

play21:32

aren't you a little concerned you know

play21:34

something's not right you know here you

play21:36

are thinking the market's going down

play21:38

yet people buying every new low are

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making money so something's wrong with

play21:42

this bear trend and it's not just an

play21:44

apple it's the entire market i've been

play21:47

talking about this you know since the

play21:49

market sold off in in january i said

play21:51

look at this a trader who bought that

play21:54

low and bought more 50 points lower made

play21:56

my i traded about this slow what more 50

play21:58

100 points slower made money so all the

play22:01

way down

play22:02

pools are making money

play22:04

and that ain't right right if the trend

play22:07

is going to go down a long way

play22:10

it's going to be really hard for bulls

play22:12

to make money and it's been easy for

play22:14

bulls to make i've been buying every

play22:16

time it makes a new low i've been buying

play22:18

right i've been making money

play22:20

so um there's something wrong with this

play22:22

bear trend and it's not as bearish as

play22:24

the clown on tv says

play22:27

so yeah we may get a new low but what's

play22:30

going to happen if it goes below this

play22:31

low

play22:32

al is going to buy a whole bunch of

play22:34

institutions are going to buy so there

play22:36

are we know there are a whole bunch of

play22:38

buyers down here and there may be so

play22:40

many buyers down here

play22:42

that if the market sells off

play22:44

the bulls are so afraid it will not make

play22:47

a new low they'll start buying above

play22:49

this low and we'll end up getting a

play22:51

higher low and then

play22:54

we'll start converting into a bull trend

play22:56

and i think that's what's going to

play22:58

happen i suspect this is probably the

play23:00

low for the year

play23:01

and i'm hoping we get a new low

play23:04

because i want to buy below this level

play23:07

and i'm not alone there are a whole

play23:08

bunch of institutions that and you're

play23:10

not seeing them on television they're

play23:12

all hoping for a new low because every

play23:14

time we get a new low

play23:16

they're making money buying and they

play23:18

know that's probably going to lead to a

play23:20

trend reversal at some point and the way

play23:22

this is accelerating up

play23:25

there's a pretty good chance

play23:27

this is

play23:28

this this will be the low of the year

play23:30

and that if we come back down maybe to

play23:32

these lows bulls will start buying

play23:34

higher lows instead of waiting to buy

play23:36

below the prior low the bulls will be so

play23:39

afraid there will no longer be any new

play23:42

lows they'll start buying above the low

play23:45

and they'll start getting higher lows

play23:46

and they will start getting a trend up

play23:48

again and i think

play23:50

right now after this week i think that's

play23:52

probably what's going to happen i think

play23:54

we've seen the loaf of the year

play23:56

and we'll work our way up here maybe all

play23:59

the way up to a new high by the end of

play24:01

the year

play24:01

and i'm hoping for a selloff so i can

play24:04

buy again i'm a trader

play24:06

so you know

play24:07

i buy if the market goes up you know for

play24:10

example i bought down here and

play24:12

i bought a bunch of different stocks and

play24:15

when they went up about 10 i took my

play24:16

profits i did the same here

play24:18

so every time it goes down i'm looking

play24:21

if it goes down you know i'm looking to

play24:22

buy and i'll i'll exit with 10

play24:25

and you don't have to do that too many

play24:27

times a year to have a pretty good year

play24:29

on the daily chart so and i think a lot

play24:32

of institutions at this point are hoping

play24:35

it'll go down

play24:37

now why would an institution buy here

play24:40

when they could buy a pullback and have

play24:43

less risk

play24:44

well the institution buying here

play24:47

is hoping that they know one of two

play24:48

things is going to happen

play24:50

they know either

play24:52

it's going to keep going up they'll make

play24:53

money

play24:54

or it's going to go down

play24:57

and bulls will buy

play24:58

aggressively and it'll go back up so an

play25:01

institution buying here

play25:03

is hoping it'll go up

play25:05

but they're willing to buy more if it

play25:06

comes down here and if it comes down

play25:09

here they're very confident it'll come

play25:11

back here

play25:12

that would allow them to get out break

play25:14

even on this buy and with a pretty good

play25:17

profit on this buy

play25:19

and i think that's the psychology that's

play25:20

taking place now i think the market is

play25:22

switching into

play25:24

a bullish mode traders are buying

play25:26

confident that anytime it sells off

play25:30

it'll go back up so

play25:32

they're hoping it'll be as bullish as

play25:34

this

play25:35

big big sell-offs people buy sell-off

play25:37

buy buy

play25:38

right i don't think it's going to be as

play25:40

bullish as this i think it'll probably

play25:43

be more of a mirror image of this

play25:45

where it goes up you know five or ten

play25:47

percent down five or ten percent so i

play25:49

think the legs up and down will be

play25:51

bigger

play25:52

but i think

play25:53

we're going to work our way up to this

play25:55

double top maybe up to the

play25:58

high

play25:59

so that's a long answer don't listen to

play26:01

tv except for entertainment

play26:04

i love that i love that now speaking of

play26:06

trend reversal how do you know when the

play26:08

market has reversed going let's say from

play26:10

a bear trend to a bull trend are there

play26:12

clear signs that this has happens and

play26:14

now you can start to look for lungs with

play26:15

like more certainty or you just have to

play26:17

keep it low risk and kind of add in

play26:19

until the trend starts

play26:21

well both both are acceptable but there

play26:23

are chart patterns for example here we

play26:26

had a wedge three three pushes down that

play26:28

reverse up one two three and we had a

play26:31

lot of big bull bars closing on or near

play26:33

their highs that is really aggressive

play26:36

buying

play26:37

and so it was reasonable here we have a

play26:39

double bottom and a higher low

play26:41

reasonable to buy above that we have a

play26:43

very strong breakout here three

play26:44

consecutive bull bars closing on their

play26:46

highs breaking above a minor lower high

play26:49

similar to this

play26:50

and this was a good candidate for

play26:54

the resumption of the bull trend and a

play26:56

new high but it failed instead we got a

play26:58

double top and then a new low

play27:01

here we have a wedge bottom and a

play27:03

breakout and a new low

play27:05

and

play27:06

it was a really strong attempt at the

play27:08

bottom

play27:09

i i was very confident we would try to

play27:11

get another

play27:12

bottom here

play27:14

but this is unusual normally if you have

play27:16

a major bottom you'll have a very good

play27:18

buy signal bar you know but you'll get

play27:20

bars that look like that at the low and

play27:22

we're not getting that and that's the

play27:24

one problem with this level the absence

play27:27

of a really strong bicycle bar

play27:29

it's a second attempt to reverse the

play27:31

bulls trying to get a wedge full flag

play27:33

reversal here it failed and here we have

play27:36

um two legs down you can call it a lower

play27:39

low double bottom um i thought we were

play27:41

going to get a wedge i was hoping for a

play27:42

wedge a third low didn't get it

play27:45

and that's the one problem with this

play27:47

bottom the absence of a

play27:49

strong bottom talk about the month

play27:51

weekly chart also

play27:53

look at this bottom look at that bull

play27:55

bar look at this bottom look at this

play27:56

bull bar right typically when you're

play27:59

getting a major reversal you'll get a

play28:01

really good looking bicycle bar but look

play28:04

at this we have a two bar reversal down

play28:06

and up

play28:07

this just does not look as certain as

play28:10

confident as definite as that or this

play28:14

you know major lows usually have a lot

play28:18

of big bull bars closing on their highs

play28:20

and

play28:21

that's the only thing that reduces

play28:24

the probability here that the bottom is

play28:27

in we still might get one more new low

play28:29

at this point i don't think we are

play28:31

so one thing you're looking for is a

play28:33

good buy signal bar and

play28:35

some kind of a pattern a double bottom

play28:37

or a wedge bottom like this this bottom

play28:40

failed

play28:41

here you get a lower low double bottom

play28:43

or two reversals up

play28:45

but no good buy signal bar so one thing

play28:47

you want a pattern but sometimes you

play28:49

don't get a good bicycle bar or a clear

play28:52

pattern and instead you get a series of

play28:55

bull bars closing on their highs a

play28:57

breakout so we've got a bare channel and

play28:59

we're breaking out so if you do not have

play29:02

a really great bottom

play29:04

you then look for a strong breakout and

play29:06

neither one of those things is a reason

play29:08

to buy here we have a double bottom or

play29:11

low which is really good

play29:12

and we have several bull bars closing

play29:14

near the highs which is really good

play29:17

so um

play29:18

this is good it's after the initial low

play29:20

but it's a high or low major trend

play29:23

reversal and we're accelerating up here

play29:25

and again here

play29:27

so to me i don't know i i would say

play29:29

there's a 50 50 chance

play29:31

um that um

play29:33

we're not going to come back down here

play29:35

50 50 chance we are going to come down

play29:37

here and right now maybe a 30 chance we

play29:40

go below here so probably 70 chance

play29:43

we've seen the low

play29:44

um and if we do go below here

play29:46

um i think they'll be buyers below

play29:49

so you're either looking for

play29:52

a good

play29:53

pattern like

play29:54

you can call this a double bottom you

play29:56

can call it a wedge bottom so you're

play29:57

looking for a good pattern with good buy

play29:59

signal bars or

play30:01

you're looking for a strong upside

play30:03

breakout this was a strong upside

play30:05

breakout of this bare channel but it

play30:07

failed and the bulls are trying again

play30:09

trying to break strongly above this bare

play30:11

channel so you're looking for a pattern

play30:14

or a strong breakout

play30:17

and for the bears opposite

play30:19

we had a big wedge top one two three

play30:22

and a strong breakout i don't have a

play30:24

trend line drawn but we broke strongly

play30:26

above

play30:27

strongly below the bare channel then we

play30:29

had a double top bare flag we broke

play30:31

below the neckline and we almost reached

play30:33

to measure move down from this double

play30:35

top neckline i should move down

play30:38

and people need to understand this is

play30:40

something you can apply to any kind of

play30:42

market as well any market will move

play30:43

pretty much the same way with some

play30:45

exceptions of course

play30:46

you have more gaps in some market less

play30:48

than other markets but it's still these

play30:50

principles you talk about when you share

play30:51

with traders apply to all kinds of

play30:53

markets well you know if you think about

play30:55

it everything that's done is by the

play30:57

institutions they control the markets

play31:00

it's done based on logic

play31:02

right any kind of a trade you know if

play31:04

you and i are trading um you know i give

play31:07

you an apple you give me an orange you

play31:09

know we have some kind of logic in our

play31:11

in our process

play31:13

and

play31:14

a chart is just a map a map of the logic

play31:18

that's taking place

play31:20

it's

play31:21

rational human behavior

play31:23

and it doesn't matter if you and i are

play31:25

doing a trade for apples and oranges

play31:26

over the course of one minute or if

play31:29

we're trading an apartment building in

play31:31

new york for an apartment building in

play31:33

singapore and it takes us two years to

play31:35

do the deal

play31:36

the same logic applies and if you have a

play31:38

lot of these trades taking place and you

play31:40

map them out

play31:42

you'll get a chart and it might look

play31:44

like this chart right so it doesn't

play31:47

matter what the market is it doesn't

play31:48

matter what the time frame is it's all

play31:50

based upon rational human behavior

play31:53

and

play31:54

that behavior creates patterns those

play31:57

patterns are present for any market and

play32:00

on any time frame

play32:01

so if you're a trader looking at

play32:03

patterns you don't care what the market

play32:06

is you know you know

play32:07

you're going to trade it the same it

play32:08

doesn't matter if it's bitcoin or crude

play32:10

oil or apple or an etf it doesn't matter

play32:14

you're going to look for the same

play32:15

patterns because you're looking for the

play32:18

same rational human behavior

play32:20

and any big market is going to attract a

play32:23

lot of institutions and they're very

play32:26

serious about their money and they're

play32:27

going to be looking for logical ways to

play32:30

make decisions

play32:31

so um

play32:33

you know traders you know when they're

play32:35

looking at charts they don't care about

play32:37

the time frame they don't care if it's a

play32:39

one minute chart or a

play32:41

one month chart they're going to look

play32:43

for the same patterns and trade them the

play32:45

same

play32:46

you know you're never going to be as

play32:47

certain as you want

play32:49

because

play32:50

the market's always in balance even when

play32:52

it's going up there are a whole bunch of

play32:54

sellers thinking it's going up too fast

play32:56

and even when it's crashing there are a

play32:58

whole bunch of buyers thinking it's

play32:59

going down too far too fast so the

play33:01

market you should always think of the

play33:02

market as in balance it's always in

play33:05

balance it's always about the same

play33:07

number of bulls

play33:09

and bears and because of that

play33:12

the probability of making money is never

play33:14

as high as you want you know you want to

play33:15

buy and

play33:17

be 100 certain well no one's going to

play33:19

sell if they're 100 certain that they're

play33:22

doing something stupid right so

play33:24

probabilities for the buyers and the

play33:26

sellers hover around 50 i always think

play33:29

of it as a band of between 40 and 60

play33:31

percent

play33:32

if you're more than 60 certain of

play33:35

something you're you're wrong if you're

play33:38

less than 40 certain of something you're

play33:40

wrong you should always assume that when

play33:43

you're trading whether you buy or sell

play33:45

at any minute

play33:46

there's a 40 to 60 chance it'll do what

play33:49

you want and a 40 to 60 chance it'll do

play33:52

the exact opposite of what you want now

play33:55

it's interesting you said that because

play33:57

we often hear that the markets are

play33:58

irrational that that humans are making

play34:01

decisions that are not rational in the

play34:03

market and that that causes price

play34:04

movement in the market now you're saying

play34:06

it's actually the opposite institutions

play34:07

control the market more than investors

play34:10

or i guess normal people so how would

play34:12

you explain then the big moves and like

play34:13

some cryptocurrencies that are not based

play34:16

on logic but based on just i guess greed

play34:19

or kind like a bubble aspect how would

play34:21

that be based on rational emotions the

play34:24

more institutions are involved with the

play34:27

market the more they become logical and

play34:30

rational and the more the training is

play34:32

done by algorithms computer algorithms

play34:35

this is the e-mini okay

play34:38

and

play34:38

you know you and i and everybody

play34:40

listening

play34:41

could buy the market

play34:43

and the market might move one tick you

play34:46

know we're tiny the institutions control

play34:49

95 of the volume in the stock market

play34:52

and probably 75 percent of the volume is

play34:54

traded by computer algorithms

play34:57

and computer algorithms are logical

play35:00

right their computer computers running

play35:01

software programs and they just keep

play35:03

running and running them over and over

play35:05

again they have a basket of programs and

play35:09

um

play35:10

if a certain type of program is working

play35:11

well and then it's working less well

play35:13

they'll switch to another type of

play35:15

program you know the way i think of it

play35:17

is when the market is doing this the

play35:19

trend programs are

play35:21

making a lot of money and the trading

play35:22

range programs looking for reversals or

play35:24

not so at some point all the

play35:27

institutions start to trade trending

play35:29

programs

play35:30

and eventually you run out of

play35:33

people willing to take the other side

play35:35

and it stops trending and it starts to

play35:36

go sideways

play35:38

and the institutions then start to

play35:40

switch to

play35:41

trading range programs looking for

play35:42

reversals and once a certain critical

play35:45

mass of them

play35:47

are trading that way there's no one to

play35:49

take the other side and it goes back to

play35:50

trending bitcoin is kind of an outlier

play35:53

because i'm not certain

play35:55

about how much institutional

play35:56

participation there is you know bitcoin

play36:00

it's unclear and a lot of the

play36:02

institutions are

play36:04

um

play36:04

[Music]

play36:06

how should i say um

play36:08

i don't trust them you see these guys on

play36:10

tv called bitcoin whales and they have

play36:13

billions of dollars in bitcoin

play36:15

and you know if you're a bitcoin whale

play36:18

what's your main reason for going on tv

play36:22

to make money you know you're trying to

play36:24

influence public opinion so um

play36:27

you know you're going to say things

play36:29

to make try to make the market go

play36:32

whatever direction

play36:33

your current position is long or short

play36:35

so um yeah i'm not as confident that

play36:38

bitcoin is as institutional as it should

play36:41

be

play36:42

it's kind of like the the meme stocks

play36:44

you know amc

play36:46

um over the past couple of years

play36:48

um you know if most of the participants

play36:51

are little guys and a lot of it is

play36:53

institutional a lot of it is emotional

play36:56

um

play36:58

i don't want to trade it because you

play36:59

tend to get much more abrupt moves

play37:02

there's a weekly chart of bitcoin

play37:04

and um there are patterns in here here's

play37:07

a

play37:08

small wedge here's a higher high double

play37:10

top a micro double top a pretty good

play37:12

reversal down so theoretically it's a

play37:14

short

play37:15

and very strong breakout from a treading

play37:18

range so you buy at any point

play37:20

if it gets a big bear bar closing there

play37:22

it's low you can exit below the bar it

play37:24

did not go below that bar

play37:26

um it did go below these bars if you get

play37:28

a wedge top you could exit especially if

play37:31

you get a bear bar so if you bought

play37:33

anywhere in here you're going to exit

play37:35

there um

play37:37

you know the patterns are going to be

play37:38

there

play37:39

but um i'm not as comfortable

play37:42

buying bitcoin also right now

play37:45

another problem i have with bitcoin is

play37:47

um

play37:48

here's bitcoin

play37:51

and

play37:52

here is the

play37:53

nasdaq

play37:55

and what do you notice

play37:56

they kind of look the same bitcoin is

play37:59

starting to trade like a nasdaq stock

play38:02

you know i trust the nasdaq and i'm i'm

play38:05

not worried about big surprises with

play38:07

government announcements about new regis

play38:10

legislation that could affect the price

play38:12

action

play38:13

so again this is the nasdaq here's

play38:16

bitcoin

play38:17

you know the charts look the same

play38:19

so i'd rather

play38:20

trade the nasdaq

play38:22

because i don't have to worry about any

play38:24

kind of crazy surprise coming from the

play38:26

government can you trade bitcoin

play38:28

yeah but why

play38:30

you know

play38:31

it mirrors the nasdaq and you don't have

play38:34

the

play38:34

risk of some uh

play38:37

china or europe suddenly announcing one

play38:39

day that

play38:40

nothing bitcoin is no longer allowed or

play38:42

the united states suddenly announcing

play38:44

that they're going to try to ban bitcoin

play38:47

and with the united states announcing

play38:49

that it's coming out with a um a

play38:51

cryptocurrency its own cryptocurrency

play38:55

or the united states and the eu

play38:56

announcing hey

play38:58

there's so much crime

play39:00

being conducted with bitcoin in

play39:02

cryptocurrencies we're going to create

play39:04

our own international cryptocurrency

play39:07

there's a a small but real risk of

play39:11

bitcoin going to zero over the next few

play39:14

years

play39:15

and

play39:16

since it trades like the nasdaq

play39:19

which has no risk of going to zero

play39:21

you know i'm going to trade the nasdaq

play39:24

the weekly chart of bitcoin

play39:26

and yeah it can go up to

play39:29

50 000 it can go up to um 70 000 and go

play39:32

up to half a million

play39:34

the way some of the bitcoin whales are

play39:36

saying

play39:37

and i may trade

play39:38

at some point like when it's

play39:41

doing this early in a rally i'll you

play39:43

know i sometimes will trade a bitcoin or

play39:46

a bitcoin etf

play39:48

but um

play39:49

you know i

play39:50

since it charts like the nasdaq and has

play39:53

more risk i'd rather trade the nasdaq or

play39:56

the e-mini or or stocks or a whole bunch

play39:58

of stocks that trade the same way you

play40:01

know here bitcoin it went from seventy

play40:04

thousand to twenty thousand well a bunch

play40:06

of stocks did that too

play40:08

and a lot of the stocks are pretty good

play40:10

companies here's shopify it went from

play40:12

180 down to

play40:14

40. so the percentage drop in shopify is

play40:17

about the same as the percentage drop in

play40:19

bitcoin

play40:20

and if we rally up to this high

play40:23

you'll make 100 percent

play40:25

it might take a year to get there but

play40:27

you'll make 100 in a year

play40:29

for me there's no um

play40:31

you're not missing out on anything

play40:34

if you do not trade

play40:35

bitcoin

play40:37

but i understand bitcoin is in the news

play40:40

and a lot of people view it as kind of a

play40:43

meme stock type of deal

play40:45

and get rich quick and now they're

play40:47

starting to come up with

play40:50

smaller units you could already buy

play40:53

tiny units of bitcoin or ethereum or any

play40:56

of them i i can make more money with

play40:59

less risk

play41:00

trading stocks or futures so i'd rather

play41:03

do that

play41:04

also do you remember a couple years ago

play41:07

uh when bitcoin was becoming popular

play41:10

back in here

play41:12

this is a weekly chart well they put a

play41:14

bitcoin

play41:15

bitcoin weekly chart

play41:16

a few years ago when bitcoin was

play41:18

becoming really popular everyone was

play41:20

talking about it as digital gold

play41:23

not only is it

play41:25

going to be the new world's currency

play41:27

but it's also going to be a store of

play41:29

value

play41:30

and then when the market was

play41:33

doing this and gold is not doing that

play41:35

people have you heard anybody talk about

play41:37

digital gold in the past year

play41:39

and the answer is no

play41:41

and why are they not talking

play41:44

right so in other words it was it was

play41:46

nonsense it was a lie right and you had

play41:49

all these bitcoin whales on tv oh it's

play41:51

digital goals it's a store of value

play41:53

and it's not behaving like gold

play41:56

so you know it's not it's not digital

play41:58

gold it was just a stupid lie

play42:01

here's gold

play42:02

okay it's not down here the way bitcoin

play42:04

is down here

play42:05

so it's not digital gold it has nothing

play42:07

to do with gold right

play42:09

so so that argument is gone

play42:12

and then you get the argument that oh

play42:14

everybody's going to start transacting

play42:16

in bitcoin

play42:17

instead of in uh master and mastercard

play42:20

and visa

play42:22

well the the bid ask spread in

play42:26

coin you know if you're buying you're

play42:27

going to be paying

play42:29

quite a bit above the current price if

play42:30

you're selling you're gonna be selling

play42:31

quite a bit

play42:32

to the current price the bid ask spread

play42:35

is huge so that's not good if you're

play42:37

doing transactions

play42:39

and then bitcoin

play42:42

they can only uh you can only do about

play42:44

seven transactions a second

play42:46

and do you have any idea how many

play42:48

transactions a second visa card or

play42:51

mastercard can do

play42:53

thousands and thousands and thousands of

play42:55

them right

play42:56

so nobody's going to be buying uh

play42:59

anything with bitcoin because um you

play43:02

know you can't do enough transactions so

play43:04

so it's not

play43:06

a currency

play43:07

it's not a store of value

play43:09

and what it what is it it's a fad

play43:12

right it's you know it's a get rich

play43:15

quick type of deal you know

play43:17

you know you can make a lot of money you

play43:19

can lose a lot of money it's exciting

play43:20

it's fun but for me

play43:22

you know i'm in this to make money

play43:24

that's all that's that's my goal all i

play43:26

want to do is make money

play43:27

and i can make more money trading other

play43:30

things with less risk

play43:32

than i can in bitcoin

play43:34

and one other thing about bitcoin

play43:36

as you can tell

play43:37

but one thing about bitcoin is it makes

play43:39

it easy for crooks to do things

play43:42

and i don't want to be you know so i

play43:44

feel dirty participating in it

play43:47

you know i don't want to be involved in

play43:49

anything that helps crooks

play43:52

i know you can argue well if the fbi can

play43:55

trace bitcoin transactions and get the

play43:58

money back from the crooks

play44:00

well

play44:01

yes

play44:02

and if somebody does a transaction uh

play44:06

and steals 100 million dollars or a

play44:08

billion dollars

play44:10

the fbi is going to get that money back

play44:13

right but if they steal 70 000 or 90 000

play44:18

which happens all the time i'm sure

play44:20

transacting in bitcoin the fbi is going

play44:22

to say it's too small we're not going to

play44:24

bother so it's still pretty easy for

play44:28

crooks to transact you know fifty

play44:30

thousand hundred thousand two or three

play44:32

hundred thousand dollars with impunity

play44:34

no risk of um

play44:36

[Music]

play44:37

being

play44:38

traced to no risk of having the money

play44:40

called back by the fbi

play44:41

so for me it feels dirty and i don't

play44:44

want to be participating in something

play44:46

that feels dirty

play44:47

if it gets cleaned up with legislation

play44:50

and they get the crooks out of it

play44:52

and it actually becomes

play44:54

a currency

play44:56

then

play44:57

i'll look to trade it but at that point

play44:59

it'll be

play45:01

trading like the euro or the dollar and

play45:04

i probably will continue to trade the

play45:06

euro or the dollar instead i don't see

play45:09

myself

play45:11

spending a lot of time trading bitcoin

play45:13

so it's tradable we have a wedge bottom

play45:16

here three bottoms one two three

play45:18

and we have a micro double bottom a

play45:20

second reversal up so it looks like

play45:22

we're going higher maybe to the 20 week

play45:25

moving average maybe to this gap and you

play45:27

know that's about a 50 gain

play45:30

but you know i can i can do that trading

play45:32

stocks as well you know i suspect a lot

play45:34

of people watching this um interview

play45:37

are trade bitcoin

play45:39

but for me um i just don't um there's

play45:43

not enough compelling reason to do it

play45:45

another thing i don't like is it feels

play45:47

amateurish it feels like

play45:49

it's a toy

play45:50

and um i don't want to be playing with

play45:53

toys i want to i want to be out there

play45:55

playing with the adults i have a hard

play45:57

time

play45:58

getting excited about bitcoin i honestly

play46:01

believe i can make more money doing what

play46:03

i'm doing trading stocks trading futures

play46:06

so let me apologize to the bitcoin fans

play46:08

out there you know yes it's tradable and

play46:12

yes the patterns are the same as with

play46:14

any other market

play46:15

but um for me i'd rather

play46:18

trade betray the other stuff

play46:20

i think it's a fair answer i think the

play46:22

live people are in the same situation as

play46:23

you they don't understand it or they

play46:25

think it's like it's above all this

play46:27

thing it's never going to work for

play46:29

keeping it long-term so they don't trade

play46:30

it now one thing i'm close to here is

play46:32

your thoughts on choppy markets like

play46:34

these markets where you have a bunch of

play46:36

like wigs bunch of heights and lots of

play46:38

you would think if institution controls

play46:39

the market like they just want to go

play46:41

from point a to point b they want to go

play46:43

there and move around and trade these

play46:45

these levels but what caused market to

play46:47

be choppy going back and forth around

play46:49

the same level for a long period of time

play46:51

well it's institutions you know in part

play46:54

let me go to okay here's a weekly chart

play46:56

of the emini it's going up and it's in a

play46:59

very tight channel

play47:00

um institutions are mostly buying

play47:02

anytime it tries to go down they're

play47:04

going to buy

play47:05

because they know if it's in a tight

play47:06

channel chances are it's going to go

play47:08

higher until there's some kind of a

play47:10

topping pattern

play47:11

and um

play47:12

on the daily chart we had

play47:15

a wedge over here on the monthly chart

play47:17

we had a micro wedge which is just a

play47:19

reflection of the daily chart

play47:21

up and down up and down up and then a

play47:25

third reversal so a micro wedge as i

play47:27

said there are always buyers and sellers

play47:30

and some

play47:31

there are always slightly more buyers or

play47:33

slightly more sellers but they're always

play47:35

going to be buyers and sellers and the

play47:37

computer algorithms

play47:39

are based upon logic and testing and

play47:43

even when it's going down

play47:45

you have

play47:46

computer bull programmers buying all the

play47:48

way down

play47:50

and

play47:50

some of them have

play47:52

very wide stops or to use a bitcoin term

play47:55

they they're total

play47:56

uh hold on for dear life

play47:58

type of deals where they have no stop at

play48:01

all they just know that eventually it's

play48:03

going to go up so traders with

play48:06

institutions with very long time frames

play48:09

are going to be buying as it goes down

play48:10

if they're getting a lot of money coming

play48:12

in and their fund

play48:14

and they have to invest they have to buy

play48:16

as it's going down

play48:17

so um

play48:19

and it's okay

play48:20

you know they know eventually it's going

play48:22

to go up

play48:23

you know obviously if you're a shorter

play48:25

term institution if you're

play48:28

a high frequency trading firm

play48:30

um you're not going to be buying during

play48:32

this you're only going to be selling but

play48:34

there are all kinds of time frames going

play48:35

on and it's just a question of whether

play48:38

more dollars are buying than selling

play48:40

that we go up and down

play48:42

as far as these this this kind of stuff

play48:45

a lot of institutions

play48:47

buy here

play48:48

hoping that there will be more

play48:50

institutions buying here

play48:51

right and at some point

play48:54

if it stops going up for a day or two a

play48:57

bar or two or three

play48:59

a lot of the institutions look at that

play49:00

and say huh it's changing its behavior

play49:03

people are no longer buying at the high

play49:05

and the next bar is no longer another

play49:07

bull bar

play49:08

and the the market's changing its

play49:10

behavior

play49:12

and the institutions start to sell out

play49:14

of longs and if it starts to go down

play49:16

fast enough

play49:17

not only are institutions selling out of

play49:19

lungs but a whole bunch of institutions

play49:22

are shorting betting that will go down

play49:24

at least a little bit more let me just

play49:26

show you something about yeah this is

play49:27

kind of an example um very strong rally

play49:31

and if you're a bull and you see that

play49:32

bar you're a little bit disappointed and

play49:34

you see two more bear bars you're a

play49:36

little bit more disappointed

play49:38

and if you bought that closed you might

play49:40

decide uh if it gets back to that close

play49:42

maybe i'll exit just in case it goes

play49:45

lower i can back back lower

play49:47

and it got to that close again right

play49:49

here

play49:50

and did this

play49:52

so what happened here

play49:53

what do you think happened there

play49:55

it's mostly

play49:57

the bulls who bought here disappointed

play49:59

by this

play50:00

exiting so bulls are panicking out and a

play50:04

whole bunch of them panicked out because

play50:06

a whole bunch of them decided uh we've

play50:08

got a wedge top

play50:09

and now we have a micro double top

play50:12

we might get a pretty good correction

play50:14

so this is bulls giving up

play50:17

and you're getting an increasing number

play50:18

of beers shorting

play50:20

opposites true at the bottom

play50:22

right you got

play50:24

bearish selling down here

play50:26

and then

play50:27

um

play50:28

it stops going down it stops going down

play50:31

and the bears who sold

play50:33

become disappointed by this they hope it

play50:35

comes back down to this price so they

play50:38

can exit without a loss it got near it

play50:41

they held it got near it a second time

play50:44

and we have a big reversal

play50:46

the bears are panicking out so the start

play50:49

of every bull trend is mostly short

play50:51

covering the start of every bear trend

play50:53

is mostly

play50:54

profit taking from the bulls long

play50:56

liquidation and then as it goes down

play50:58

more and more traders short as it goes

play51:01

up more and more traders buy there are

play51:02

no longer very many bears covering

play51:04

shorts it's mostly bulls buying i mean

play51:07

that's alright that's how i look at

play51:08

charts and i think that i think that's

play51:10

pretty accurate but i i don't worry

play51:12

about the wiggles the wiggles you're

play51:13

talking about

play51:14

the market was sideways here for a year

play51:18

no one talks about it they talk about

play51:20

the market went up and the market went

play51:22

down well it's really been sideways for

play51:24

about a year you know for example if we

play51:26

go back up here which is where i think

play51:28

we're headed we'll probably get profit

play51:30

taking and go down

play51:32

and you know

play51:33

people are going to say well the

play51:34

market's been in a trading range

play51:36

since this no it's been in the trading

play51:37

range since over here or here we went up

play51:41

we went down we're going up and i

play51:43

suspect we'll come back down some point

play51:45

next year

play51:46

as far as

play51:47

the mar the market's looking for fair

play51:49

value

play51:50

and it tends to spend a lot of time in

play51:52

trading ranges because

play51:54

it raises up to a value that both the

play51:57

bulls and bears think it's fair

play51:59

and as it goes down it's cheap the bulls

play52:01

buy the beer stop selling it goes up

play52:03

it's expensive the bulls take profits

play52:06

and the beers start to short and it

play52:08

tends to oscillate around some price

play52:11

where the bulls and bears think it's

play52:13

fair

play52:14

and then something

play52:15

happens fundamentally to change the

play52:18

perception of fairness you know the fed

play52:20

might start to raise interest rates

play52:23

and instead of the fair price being up

play52:26

here it then is down here and the market

play52:28

goes down to a new fare zone another

play52:31

trading range

play52:32

and then you start getting good earnings

play52:34

and the market decides uh this fair zone

play52:37

is no longer good

play52:38

the earnings are really good maybe the

play52:40

fair price is somewhere up here so it'll

play52:42

go up to the new fare zone and oscillate

play52:44

around there for a while until there's

play52:46

some other really important fundamental

play52:49

information

play52:50

that makes traders conclude that the

play52:52

price is no longer fair and you have to

play52:54

race up or down to another fair zone

play52:57

interesting we could go through this

play52:58

stuff and discuss it for like hours and

play53:00

hours but i want to respect your time

play53:01

we've already been like an hour into

play53:03

this a great knowledge on i'm sure

play53:04

people are going to notice from this a

play53:05

lot uh if they want to learn more from

play53:07

you and you have a course you have a few

play53:08

books who are just behind you as well so

play53:10

what would be the next step for people

play53:12

who want to learn past action why can

play53:13

they connect with you what can they

play53:15

reach out to be able to learn from you

play53:17

the best thing is just go to

play53:18

brookstradingcourse.com

play53:21

that's my

play53:22

primary website i have a chat room

play53:24

website as well but you can access it

play53:27

through brookstrainingcourse.com

play53:30

also i'm merging the chat room

play53:33

website into

play53:34

thebrookstradingcourse.com website so

play53:36

everything will be there

play53:38

awesome and you do put out a lot of good

play53:40

work to for traders and you do a lot of

play53:41

referred to how people get profitable

play53:43

and use perception correctly so that's

play53:45

awesome i really appreciate this i know

play53:47

people who went through your course and

play53:49

some traders who got good results out of

play53:50

it they like how like very systematic

play53:52

and precise it is like they don't have

play53:54

to think about anything else on their

play53:55

own

play53:56

like there's no discretionary it's very

play53:58

based on like like real space and very

play53:59

clear so that's good people like atlanta

play54:01

generals that's awesome i'll leave links

play54:02

below the description for people to

play54:04

check it out click these links to see

play54:06

what you're doing and i'll i hope we can

play54:07

discuss this in the future again i hope

play54:08

we can connect again in the future talk

play54:10

about prospection again

play54:12

see how you are doing see how things are

play54:13

moving in the market and of course learn

play54:15

more from you i think that's been

play54:16

awesome all right i appreciate it hn

play54:18

it's always good to talk to you i hope

play54:19

that your viewers find it useful

play54:22

awesome i appreciate it and we'll catch

play54:24

you guys in the next video pretty soon

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