美银版推背图？NaNa说美股(2024.09.24)

NaNa说美股

24 Sept 202414:35

Summary

TLDROn September 24th, US stock markets opened flat but fell as consumer confidence dropped sharply, and Richmond's manufacturing index hit a four-and-a-half-year low. Despite Fed's Bowman hinting at cautious rate cuts, markets rebounded on expectations of aggressive cuts in November. Tech stocks rose, led by Nvidia, while credit services fell due to Visa's poor performance. TLT approached its 50-day moving average after last week's rate cut. The S&P 500 index touched its 5-day moving average for support, continuing its September rally. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks surged on policy stimulus, and luxury goods stocks rose on signs of a Chinese economic recovery.

Takeaways

📉 U.S. stock markets opened flat and fell in early trading due to a decline in consumer confidence and poor manufacturing data.
📈 Despite the initial drop, stocks recovered and ended slightly higher, with chip stocks leading the gains.
📉 The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been falling, reflecting profit-taking after last week's rate cut.
💹 The S&P 500 index touched a new high, defying the typical September downturn.
📊 Market volatility is expected to increase in the coming weeks due to economic data releases and the U.S. presidential election.
📈 Chinese stocks surged on policy stimulus news, with the 3x做多FTSE China ETF (YINN) jumping over 29%.
📈 Commodities, especially base metals, rose on the back of China's stimulus measures and expectations of a U.S. economic soft landing.
📉 Snowflake (SNOW) continued to underperform despite the market rally, announcing a plan to issue convertible bonds for stock buybacks and potential acquisitions.
📉 Dell Technologies was re-added to the S&P 500, but insider selling and lackluster performance overshadowed the news.
📉 Visa (V) fell sharply due to an antitrust lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, alleging the company monopolized the debit card market.
📉 Scientific Games (SGMS) saw a significant drop in stock price after a court banned the sale of one of its products for copyright infringement.

Q & A

What happened to the U.S. stock market on September 24th?
-The U.S. stock market opened flat and experienced a decline in the morning due to the release of disappointing economic data.
What was the unexpected result of the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in September?
-The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.7, which was the largest decline in three years, and was below the expected 104.
How did the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index perform in September?
-The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index fell to -21 in September from -19 in August, indicating a decline in factory activity to a four-and-a-half-year low.
Who is the current most hawkish member of the FOMC?
-The most hawkish member of the FOMC is now Michelle Bowman, who opposed a 50 basis point rate cut at the last meeting.
What is the current yield of the TLT ETF?
-The current yield of the TLT ETF is approximately 3.6%.
What special benefits does the Futu moomoo app offer to new users in the United States?
-New users in the United States can enjoy a high-interest savings account with an annual rate of 8.1% without any minimum threshold and with FDIC insurance.
What is the current valuation level of the S&P 500 Index?
-The S&P 500 Index is nearing a valuation level of 22 times.
What is the projected level of the S&P 500 Index by the end of the year according to DataTrek Research?
-DataTrek Research projects the S&P 500 Index to reach 6000 points by the end of the year.
What are the key dates that could affect the stock market from now until the U.S. presidential election in November?
-Key dates include the non-farm data on October 4th, the Q3 earnings reports in late October, the non-farm data on November 1st, and the presidential election on November 6th.
How did Chinese stocks perform on September 24th?
-Chinese stocks experienced a significant rally on September 24th, boosted by policy announcements and stimulus measures from the Chinese government.
What was the reason behind the sharp decline in the stock price of U.S. casino giant Scientific Games on September 24th?
-The stock price of Scientific Games declined sharply due to a court ruling that banned the sale of their product 'Dragon Train' over alleged intellectual property infringement.

Outlines

00:00

📉 U.S. Stock Market Reacts to Economic Data and Federal Reserve Signals

In this segment, the presenter discusses the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market on September 24th. Key economic indicators, such as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, dropped to 98.7, its largest decline in three years, stoking concerns about the economy and labor market. Additionally, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index showed a deeper-than-expected contraction. These factors, combined with hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman about the cautious approach to future rate cuts, initially weighed down the stock market. However, hopes for more aggressive rate cuts in November lifted indexes by the end of the day. Technology stocks, especially chipmakers led by NVIDIA, surged, while TLT, a long-term bond ETF, experienced a pullback as traders took profits after the previous rate cut. The speaker also highlights investment opportunities tied to rate cuts and promotes various financial products and platforms, including Futu’s moomoo app and its benefits for U.S. and Canadian investors. The S&P 500 remained strong, supported by solid corporate performance and rate cut optimism, overcoming the traditional September market volatility fears.

05:02

📊 S&P 500 Valuations and Market Outlook Through Year-End

This section focuses on the future outlook for the S&P 500 and market volatility leading up to important economic reports and the U.S. presidential election in November. DataTrek Research argues that current high valuations are justified due to rising corporate earnings and lower interest rates, predicting the S&P 500 could reach 6000 points by year-end without significant increases in valuation multiples. Market volatility is expected to spike around key events such as nonfarm payroll reports and major corporate earnings in October. Strategies for options trading around volatility are discussed, noting that implied volatility is low this week, indicating a calm market until potentially volatile events like Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. Additionally, the NASDAQ’s indecisive movements are highlighted as an indicator of investor uncertainty.

10:03

📈 Chinese Stocks and Global Markets Rally Amid Stimulus and Rate Cut Hopes

Chinese stocks, particularly those tracked by the FTSE China ETF (YINN), surged over 29% on September 24th due to a series of supportive policies from the Chinese government and central bank. A sharp rebound in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets was driven by this stimulus, combined with optimism from the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts. The presenter notes that Chinese stocks had been under pressure for an extended period, and this recent rally may continue depending on confidence in China's economic recovery. Additionally, the boost in Chinese consumer confidence positively impacted global luxury stocks, while U.S. cyclical stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO) benefited from improving liquidity and economic conditions. However, despite market-wide gains, stocks like Snowflake (SNOW) continued to underperform, suffering from capital outflows and a poorly received bond issuance plan.

💰 Corporate Moves: Stock Buybacks, Executive Sales, and Legal Battles

This final section covers various corporate activities, including stock buybacks, executive stock sales, and legal disputes. Snowflake (SNOW) announced a $5.75 billion stock buyback funded by convertible bonds, a move that raised concerns due to the company's ongoing losses. The stock has been underperforming, down for eight consecutive months. Dell Technologies also saw significant insider selling, with founder Michael Dell selling $1.175 billion worth of shares, while Visa faced a 5.5% drop following news of a potential antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice. The case focuses on Visa’s alleged monopoly in the U.S. debit card market. Additionally, Light & Wonder (LNW) suffered a 19.5% plunge after a Nevada court issued an injunction on one of its popular slot machine products, following a patent dispute with rival Aristocrat. The segment ends with a broader observation about the wave of insider selling across major companies.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡US Stock Market

The US Stock Market refers to the various stock exchanges where stocks and other securities of US companies are traded. It is a central theme of the video, discussing the performance of the market on a specific day. The script mentions how the major US stock indices opened flat and later experienced a downturn due to economic data releases, reflecting the market's sensitivity to economic indicators.

💡Consumer Confidence Index

The Consumer Confidence Index is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism of consumers about the overall economy rather than expectations from a specific product or service. In the script, it is highlighted that the index fell unexpectedly to 98.7 in September, which is the largest drop in three years, indicating concerns about the labor market and the broader economic outlook.

💡Manufacturing Index

The Manufacturing Index reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. A value above zero indicates improvement, while a value below zero signifies deterioration. The script mentions that the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Index fell to -21 in September, indicating a significant downturn in factory activity.

💡Interest Rate Cut

An interest rate cut refers to a reduction in the interest rates set by a country's central bank. The script discusses the cautious stance of a Federal Reserve official on further rate cuts, which is a significant factor affecting the stock market. The expectation of rate cuts can influence investor sentiment and market volatility.

💡FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. The script refers to a member of the FOMC who is considered the most hawkish, indicating her opposition to aggressive rate cuts. This is relevant as it reflects the internal debate within the committee on monetary policy.

💡ETF

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of security that involves a collection of securities such as stocks, bonds, or commodities. The script mentions TLT, an ETF that tracks long-term US Treasury bonds, and discusses its performance in relation to interest rate expectations and economic outlook.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, or yields, of bonds across different maturity dates. The script discusses the 50-day moving average, which is a technical analysis tool used to analyze the yield curve and anticipate market trends.

💡Recession

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. The script implies that the bond market had priced in a recession and aggressive rate cuts, which led to a profit-taking opportunity after the actual rate cut was implemented.

💡S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on US stock exchanges. The script mentions that the index reached new highs, reflecting the strong performance of the US stock market in September, contrary to the historical trend of market downturns in that month.

💡Implied Volatility

Implied volatility is a forward-looking measure of the expected volatility of a security's price and is derived from options prices. The script discusses how implied volatility can affect options trading strategies and is used to anticipate market movements, particularly around significant economic events.

💡Mid-Cap Stocks

Mid-cap stocks refer to companies with a moderate market capitalization, falling between small-cap and large-cap stocks. The script mentions that mid-cap stocks performed well, indicating that investors were looking beyond the largest companies for investment opportunities.

💡Chinese ETFs

Chinese ETFs are investment funds that track Chinese stocks or indices. The script highlights a surge in Chinese ETFs due to policy announcements and stimulus measures, reflecting the impact of economic policies on investment sentiment.

Highlights

US stock market opened flat on September 24th, with early losses due to a drop in consumer confidence and manufacturing activity.

Consumer Confidence Index fell unexpectedly to 98.7, the largest drop in three years, signaling concerns over labor market and economic outlook.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -21, indicating a decline in factory activity to a four-and-a-half-year low.

Despite the negative economic data, the stock market recovered due to expectations of significant rate cuts in November.

Chip stocks led by NVIDIA rose, while credit services were dragged down by VISA's performance.

TLT has been falling, approaching the 50-day moving average, reflecting a market adjustment after the recent rate cut.

The market is expected to be sensitive to any signs of economic slowdown due to the recent rise in market valuations after rate cuts.

DataTrek Research believes the current high valuation is justified and will be absorbed by future high growth.

S&P 500 Index is expected to reach 6000 points by the end of the year, with valuations not becoming overly concerning.

Bank of America has identified key dates until the November presidential election that could significantly impact the stock market.

Volatility is expected to increase around non-farm data releases, major company earnings, and the election.

NASDAQ 100 has shown hesitation with four consecutive days of doji candles, reflecting investor uncertainty.

Chinese stocks experienced a significant rally due to policy stimulus and hopes for an economic recovery.

Luxury goods stocks in Europe were also boosted by the prospect of a recovering Chinese economy and increased consumer spending.

Metals and cyclical stocks rose on the back of a potential soft US economic landing and additional stimulus from China.

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) announced plans to issue $2 billion in convertible bonds for stock buybacks and potential acquisitions.

Dell Technologies was re-added to the S&P 500 Index, but the stock price remained lackluster despite the positive news.

Visa experienced a 5.5% drop due to potential antitrust litigation from the US Department of Justice.

US gambling giant Scientific Games (SGMS) saw a 19.5% drop after a product ban due to alleged intellectual property infringement.