The AIRBNBUST IS HAPPENING - Here's What to Do

Summary

The video discusses the challenges and changes in the Airbnb market, highlighting the impact of higher interest rates on cash flow, increased competition, and stricter regulations. It offers insights on why some investors are leaving and provides advice for those considering Airbnb as an investment. The speaker shares strategies for adapting to the new market realities, emphasizing the importance of thorough research, strategic reinvestment in properties, and focusing on vacation markets with unique amenities to stay competitive.

Takeaways

• 📉 The LA Times reports a decline in home prices due to a cap on Airbnb rentals, suggesting a downturn for Airbnb hosts.
• 🚫 Airbnb has made its temporary ban on parties and noisy events permanent, impacting the rental experience.
• 💰 Many hosts have invested heavily in their units, only to face financial losses due to inflation and declining bookings.
• 📈 Interest rates have risen significantly in recent years, doubling or more, affecting the cash flow of Airbnb investments.
• 🏠 Higher interest rates mean increased mortgage payments, reducing the profitability of properties compared to a few years ago.
• 💼 The market has become more competitive, with increased supply and regulations affecting the revenue potential of Airbnb rentals.
• 🛠️ Cities are imposing stricter regulations and taxes on short-term rentals, making it harder for hosts to operate profitably.
• 📉 Revenue per available rental (RevPAR) has dropped significantly in many markets, indicating oversupply and lower prices.
• 🔄 The speaker emphasizes the need for hosts to act like real estate investors, conducting thorough market research and analysis.
• 🏆 To remain competitive, hosts must invest in high-quality amenities and design, and consider direct booking strategies outside of Airbnb.
• 📚 The speaker advises new investors to focus on larger vacation markets, conduct intense deal analysis, and consider the Airbnb-BRR (Buy Rehab Rent Refinance Repeat) model for wealth building.

Q & A

What is the current situation of Airbnb rentals as reported by LA Times?

The LA Times reports that since the city implemented a cap on Airbnb rentals, home prices have significantly dropped, suggesting a negative impact on the short-term rental market.

Why has Airbnb made its temporary ban on parties permanent?

Airbnb has made its temporary ban on parties and large noisy events permanent, although the specific reasons are not detailed in the script, it implies a move towards maintaining a quieter and safer environment for neighbors and guests.

What financial challenges are Airbnb hosts facing due to inflation?

Airbnb hosts are experiencing a decline in bookings due to inflation, which is causing a decrease in revenue and leading to financial losses for those who have invested heavily in their rental units.

What is the impact of higher interest rates on the profitability of Airbnb investments?

Higher interest rates mean that the same property purchased today with a higher down payment will have a significantly higher monthly mortgage payment compared to a few years ago, resulting in less cash flow and potentially making the investment less profitable.

How has the increase in competition affected the revenue per available rental (RevPAR)?

The increase in competition has led to a situation where supply has grown faster than revenue, causing RevPAR to drop. This means that, on average, each rental is generating less revenue, affecting the profitability of Airbnb investments.

What regulatory changes have some cities implemented that affect Airbnb operations?

Some cities have cracked down on regulations and laws, making it more difficult for Airbnb hosts to operate. Examples include higher transient occupancy taxes in Palm Springs and outright bans in New York City, which have disrupted the business model for some hosts.

Why are some Airbnb hosts choosing to quit the platform?

Some hosts, like Shelby Church mentioned in the script, are quitting Airbnb due to new taxes and regulatory changes that make the platform less profitable or more challenging to operate on.

What does the speaker suggest as a strategy for new Airbnb investors?

The speaker suggests that new investors should focus on larger vacation markets rather than urban areas due to regulatory changes, invest in one big property with high-quality amenities rather than multiple smaller ones, and be prepared to conduct thorough deal analysis to ensure profitability.

How is the speaker adapting their Airbnb investment strategy in response to current challenges?

The speaker is adapting by reinvesting into their existing properties to improve design and amenities, focusing on larger vacation markets, and considering the 'Airbnb-BURR' strategy, which involves buying undervalued properties, rehabbing them, renting them out, refinancing, and repeating the process.

What advice does the speaker give regarding the management of Airbnb properties?

The speaker advises that hosts should treat their Airbnb operation as a business, leveraging tools and software for effective management, focusing on marketing to drive direct bookings, and being prepared to compete on value rather than price.

How does the speaker address the issue of guests seeking refunds or blackmailing hosts?

The speaker acknowledges the issue of guests trying to exploit the system for refunds or blackmailing hosts with bad reviews. They suggest that hosts need to be vigilant, providing evidence and maintaining thorough records to protect themselves against such behavior.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Declining Home Prices and Airbnb's New Policies

The script discusses a report from LA Times that suggests home prices are falling due to a cap on Airbnb rentals. It mentions Airbnb's permanent ban on parties and noisy events, and the financial struggles of hosts who have invested heavily in their properties. The speaker reflects on the impact of inflation on bookings and cites opinions from financial experts like Dave Ramsey, who warn against Airbnb as a poor investment. The narrative includes personal anecdotes from hosts considering leaving the platform due to decreased profitability.

05:02

🏠 The Changing Landscape of Airbnb Investment

This paragraph delves into the financial challenges faced by Airbnb hosts, including higher interest rates on mortgages, increased competition, and a decrease in revenue per available rental (RevPAR). The speaker highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics and regulatory changes, especially in cities like Dallas and New York, where regulations have significantly affected short-term rentals. The paragraph also touches on the impact of higher taxes on hosts and the need for hosts to act like savvy real estate investors, conducting thorough market research and analysis.

10:04

🛠 The Importance of Property Improvement and Market Strategy

The speaker shares personal investment strategies for maintaining profitability in the face of a challenging market. They discuss reinvesting in existing properties to improve design and amenities, rather than purchasing new ones, and the rationale behind this approach. The paragraph emphasizes focusing on larger vacation markets and choosing to invest in fewer, high-quality properties with exceptional amenities to outcompete the market. The speaker also mentions the 'Airbnb-BURR' strategy, which involves buying, rehabbing, renting, refinancing, and repeating to build wealth and create cash-flowing assets.

15:05

📊 Conducting Rigorous Deal Analysis for Airbnb Investments

The final paragraph stresses the importance of conducting a thorough deal analysis when considering Airbnb investments. The speaker advises using tools like STRUB for analyzing different scenarios and ensuring a property can yield a positive cash flow even in a downturn. They caution against relying solely on recent high-performing data and recommend examining multiple years of market information to avoid overestimating potential returns. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the need for careful research, strategic investment, and active management to succeed in the short-term rental market.

Keywords

💡Airbnb

Airbnb is a platform that allows individuals to rent out their properties to travelers for short-term stays. In the video's context, it represents a form of investment and a business opportunity that has been impacted by various factors such as regulations and market competition. The script discusses the challenges and considerations hosts face when listing properties on Airbnb.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates refer to the percentage of an amount charged for its use over time, typically in relation to borrowing money. In the video, higher interest rates are mentioned as a factor affecting the profitability of real estate investments, including Airbnb rentals, as they increase the cost of borrowing and reduce cash flow.

💡Cash Flow

Cash flow is the net amount of cash moving in and out of a business or investment. In the script, it is used to describe the income generated by Airbnb rentals after expenses, which is a critical factor for investors to consider as it indicates the profitability and sustainability of the investment.

💡Regulations

Regulations in this context refer to the laws and rules imposed by cities or governments that affect how Airbnb rentals can be operated. The video mentions that cities cracking down on regulations have negatively impacted some investors, making it more difficult to operate short-term rentals.

💡Revenue Per Available Rental (RevPAR)

RevPAR is a metric used in the hospitality industry to measure the average revenue generated by a rental property. The script discusses how RevPAR has declined in many markets, indicating that supply has increased faster than demand, affecting the profitability of Airbnb rentals.

💡Investment Analysis

Investment analysis is the process of evaluating the potential return and risks of an investment. The video emphasizes the importance of conducting a thorough investment analysis for Airbnb properties, taking into account various factors such as market conditions, costs, and potential returns.

💡Direct Bookings

Direct bookings refer to reservations made outside of platforms like Airbnb, often through a property's own website or contact. The script mentions that some hosts are focusing on securing direct bookings to have more control over their business and to avoid platform-related issues.

💡Amenity

An amenity in the context of the video refers to additional features or services offered by a rental property to enhance the guest experience, such as a hot tub, game room, or theater room. The script suggests that investing in high-quality amenities can help properties stand out in a competitive market.

💡BRRRR Strategy

The BRRRR strategy stands for Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat. It is a real estate investment strategy mentioned in the video where investors buy properties at a low price, improve them to increase their value, rent them out, refinance to pull out the money invested, and then repeat the process with new properties.

💡Occupancy Rate

Occupancy rate is the percentage of time that a rental property is occupied by guests. The script discusses how a high occupancy rate is desirable for Airbnb hosts as it contributes to higher revenue and profitability.

💡Clickbait

Clickbait refers to sensational or misleading headlines or content designed to attract clicks and views. In the video, the term is used to describe some headlines about the decline of Airbnb, suggesting that they may be exaggerating the situation to attract attention.

Highlights

Airbnb rentals are facing a decline in home prices due to city caps.

Airbnb's ban on parties and large events is now permanent.

Airbnb hosts are experiencing a decline in bookings due to inflation.

Some experts consider Airbnb to be a poor investment.

Airbnb hosts are quitting due to financial losses and regulatory changes.

Interest rates have increased, affecting the cash flow of Airbnb properties.

Competition in the Airbnb market has intensified, reducing profitability.

Revenue per available rental (RevPAR) has dropped significantly in some markets.

Cities are imposing stricter regulations on Airbnb rentals.

Higher taxes on transient occupancy are affecting the profitability of Airbnb rentals.

Investors need to conduct thorough market research to understand local regulations and tax implications.

Airbnb hosts are encouraged to act like real estate investors to compete effectively.

Airbnb is changing policies that affect host control and refund processes.

Guests are becoming savvier and exploiting Airbnb's refund policy.

Setting up an Airbnb requires more investment in design and amenities to compete.

The speaker suggests reinvesting in existing properties rather than acquiring new ones.

Investors should focus on larger vacation markets and single, high-quality properties.

The 'Airbnb-BRRR' strategy is recommended for building wealth through Airbnb rentals.

Deal analysis is crucial for new Airbnb investors to avoid regrettable investments.

Transcripts

LA Times reporting since the city put a

cap on Airbnb rentals home prices are

now in freefall the part's over for

Airbnb renters the company said

yesterday that its temporary ban on

parties and other large noisy events is

now permanent I've put all my savings

into into my unit I'm following all the

rules paying all the taxes buying the

business license simply put it the host

tell me inflation is causing a decline

in Booking I'm not going to sugar coat

it you guys it's we lost money we uh

it's not looking good is this true airb

bust people are running for the hilltops

losing money there's people like Dave

Ramsey that say this could be the worst

possible investment that you could make

have a very good life don't go screw

that up with an Airbnb there's people

like Shelby Church saying they're

quitting Airbnb for good you saw the

title right I'm quitting Airbnb no it's

not clickbait it just doesn't make sense

anymore in this video I'm going to break

down each of the reasons why some of

these headlines are valid and if you

guys are new to short-term rentals in

Airbnb and thinking about getting

started I'm going to tell you exactly

what I'm doing as an experienced

investor should I decide to continue on

investing in airbnbs the first point I

want to make is interest rates are way

higher now historically they're not

incredibly high but in terms of the past

3 to 4 years they are double triple or

quadruple what they used to be now why

is that important to you the same

$500,000 home that you may buy and put

20% down today you're probably going to

get around an 8% interest rate your

monthly principal and interest payment

on that mortgage would be

$2,935 now the same home three years ago

or even just two years ago with a 3.5%

interest rate would be$

1,79 $6 that is a difference of

$1,139 that is how much less cash flow

you're going to make per month on that

same property just in the difference in

the amount of Interest you're paying to

the bank and if you extrapolate that

over 12 months it is

$3,668 that is a lot less cash flow and

for some properties that may make or

break the deal so if you're investing

several years ago on that property you

might be able to very easily cash flow

pretty good numbers but today you know

an $100 difference is a big deal and

that may break people the other thing is

that it's gotten more competitive so

it's not as easy to make money because

your costs are higher but also it's more

competitive and in many markets and

we've seen some Twitter posts go viral

for this that Revenue has tanked by 50%

now I've done videos in the past that

debunked that video a little bit really

mainly cuz the the headlines were

misleading Revenue was not down 50% in a

lot of these big markets but rev par

looking at 1 month year-over-year

comparison from 2022 to 2023 were in

fact down 50% in many markets now revar

stands for Revenue per available rental

so that's just taking the total revenue

that a market generates and dividing it

by the number of active rentals in that

market now why is that figure important

it's because if everybody had the same

exact rental right and the same design

the same Furniture slept the same number

of people that means that supply has

gone up faster than the revenue has and

because Travelers have a greater pick of

the litter per se of what rental to

choose um they are getting you know the

better prices so it's actually good for

the traveler so it's going to cost them

less to travel to that market but it's

bad for the the average investor we'll

talk about how to combat this later on

but revpar is down so you have to pay

attention to those numbers when you're

making an investment analysis cities are

cracking down on regulations and laws

and this has actually completely pulled

the rug out from underneath people in

certain markets like Dallas Texas New

York City just to name a few and then

you also see places like Palm Springs

started to implement a higher transient

OCC occupancy tax um which equates to

like 10 to 15% and that's not uncommon

but California in general is a place you

know if you were like hey Michael out of

all 50 states which place should I not

invest California would be at the top of

my list they are not investor friendly

so when you're doing market research you

have to understand what markets are

going to be friendlier to investors and

what are probably going to be more

likely to impose crazy changes in

regulation you have people like Shelby

Church making videos which by the way I

think is a little bit more clickbait to

get views than anything but she says

that she's quitting Airbnb because of

this new tax now truth be told what I

foresee Happening Here in Palm Springs

for example people are still going to

travel there they're still going to want

homes with pools to rent with friends

everybody has to impose that new 10% tax

on guest people are just going to eat it

and it's just going to be more expensive

for travelers it's like California does

not want tourism and they don't want

people's business like it's it's pretty

sad to see but my guess is that she's

going to test it out and still rented on

Airbnb and she's still going to be

making a decent profit more so than as a

long-term rental I may be wrong

but that's my prediction there um but

you are seeing all these crazy

regulation changes like just outright

bands like New York City making it near

impossible for new investors to come in

and buy a place or rent it out and then

rent it out on Airbnb so you need to

understand local regulations um and then

any tax implications as well you have to

learn how to be an investor guys I can't

stress this enough you know you're not

just a host on Airbnb anymore if you

want to compete you have to think and

act like a real estate investor what I

mean by this is you have to go in and

look at all of the available data and

resources online you have to understand

that market a three-b property you have

to understand what ZIP code it's in what

are the comps looking like what are

places renting out per day and what does

their occupancy rate look like what are

my expenses what happened in 2010 to

probably 2020 is you could throw up

almost any property on Airbnb and you

would probably be profitable no more you

have to compete like crazy so doing a

proper investment analysis is going to

be critical cuz a lot of people out

there probably 50% of people getting

into short ter anals probably just throw

up properties as an Airbnb and hope for

the best you couldn't do anything

stupider than that it's not just a

simple investment and you're done right

because it's getting more competitive

not just on the investment side but on

the management side people are

leveraging all sorts of tools and

software out there to be more effective

managers and get better nightly rates

and get a higher occupancy than you

people are learning how to drive direct

bookings and get off of the Airbnb

platform so you have to be a marketer

and treat this as a business not just as

an investment and then Airbnb speaking

of which people are opting to try and do

direct booking strategies Airbnb is

really stripping away more and more

control from hosts it's making it harder

for you to have control over your

destiny now it's a double-edged sword

because air BNB is the place that

everyone goes when they're traveling to

find a rental property stand so getting

direct bookings is a long-term strategy

you have to get contacts you have to get

emails and have a direct email list

right direct marketing but they're

constantly changing rules as well around

how guests are able to get refunds and

override your cancellation policies like

you have very very limited control as a

host in Airbnb whether you believe me or

not they're also changing all sorts of

um policies in the future I foresee

coming like stripping away cleaning fees

to try and make it more affordable for

travelers it's probably not going to do

that but it's going to make it harder

for hosts to be as profitable as they

had in the past guests this has been a

problem for a while but guests are

getting smarter thanks to the big old

internet people are learning how to be

scumbags and get refunds from it Airbnb

this is a problem with them they allow

you like 72 hours upon check-in to see

if something's dirty or broken so we've

had that check in and 3 Days Later

they're like hey this was this was not

how it's supposed to be in the rental or

it was dirty when it was filthy when we

checked in we cleaned it ourselves by

the way but it was filthy I want a full

refund and Airbnb you have to fight

tooth and nail in order to win that so

you have to provide evidence you have to

go out of your way to have your cleaners

take photos before and after each

check-in and checkout we've even had

guests start to cancel their

reservations the last day that they can

get a full refund knowing that most

hosts will drop their prices in order to

get those dates rebooked and those same

guests will just rebook at the lower

price like I can't think of anything

like more scummy and dirt baggish is

that a word dirt baggish it is now than

a guest doing that like that is so

trashy so if you're a guest don't do

that that's garbage and we've even had a

lot of guests blackmail us or attempt to

Blackmail us saying oh we're going to

leave a bad review we're going to go

shout from the rooftops on the internet

if you don't give us a refund or a

partial refund this is after they check

out and all of a sudden all the issues

that they had during their stay come up

I don't know but it's a problem because

reviews are so critical on sites like

Airbnb and verbo you know bad reviews

can be detrimental to your listing and

people are also realizing that it's a

lot of work to set up airbnbs it's not

as easy as it was before why because you

have to invest more time and certainly

more money if you want to make a killing

on Airbnb you have to invest in

professional design you have to spend

money on proper amenities and those are

not always cheap amenities like new hot

tub building out a fire pit like Game

Room Theater room stuff like that if you

want to compete you have to spend money

so it's hard for a lot of new investors

to start when housing costs are more

interest rates are more closing costs

are more your setup costs are more

supply chain issues and then you get

into a property and if you don't have

much money left over how are you going

to compete with somebody or a company or

someone like myself who is now willing

and capable of spending tens of

thousands if not you know six figures

just to to include extra amenities that

you will never be able to compete with

me on so it has become way harder to

make really good cash flow in Airbnb now

with all that being said it's definitely

more challenging now than it was several

years ago if you are still looking to

get started in short-term rentals this

is how I am personally continuing to

operate and invest going forward because

it's not as easy as it was even when I

got started in 2019 number one instead

of investing into you know a higher

quantity of new properties I'm actually

taking large sums of money and I'm

reinvesting into the properties I

already have why is this the case some

of my properties when especially when I

started early on and I didn't go crazy

on the design or amenities they were

very basic rentals that I managed well

and made good money but I am starting to

see some diminishing returns on select

properties so instead of saying oh my

gosh these properties suck I'm going to

sell them I have a decent interest rate

locked in on them I know that it's in a

good location it's rented before I'm

going to reinvest money to completely

redo the design and add new amenities

per se in Nashville in specific I'm

doing this here in a couple of weeks to

boost my average daily rate it'll boost

my occupancy it'll help me get a better

stream of positive reviews and it'll put

me back up into that upper echelon of

the top 75 or top 90% of Performing

properties like higher ADR higher

occupancy better reviews equals what

more money and more revenue and a more

fruitful investment so I'm going to see

a higher Roi by reinvesting into

property in some cases then investing

into new property and inara is investing

into new property especially if you guys

are are newer what I'm doing is I'm

mainly focused on larger vacation

markets or mid to large size vacation

markets instead of urban areas because

of all the regulation changes um and in

the types of property I want to invest

in I would rather get one big property

than three smaller properties and I

would rather spend 3x the money on

amenities and design on one property

then go cheaper just to get three

because I know if I get a bigger one in

a vacation market and I go crazy on the

amenities I'm going to be eliminate like

99% of my compet competition and I want

to wait and be patient for Investments

because I'd rather hit home runs than

hit a bunch of little singles at this

point you know starting out it may be

different you just want to get some skin

in the game get some cash flow going but

at this point in time guys I'm just

trying to get like 8 to 10 to $15,000 a

month in cash flow per property and I

know the only way to do that is to go go

big and go all in on one property and

this is crazy amenities like adding

pickle ball courts a putt putt course

golf simulator movie theater rooms game

rooms crazy fire pits Home Gyms all that

good stuff you have to focus on selling

the experience if you want to compete in

today's market and not just today but if

you want to compete five or 10 years

from now you you have to sell and

compete on value why because if you

don't guess what you're going to compete

on price and that is a losers game in

any industry that you operate in if

you're competing on price it is what a

race to the bottom and we don't want to

be on the race to the bottom because

that's where you experience diminishing

returns especially in a rough economy if

we have a recession or another you know

Co era or whatever it may be if less

people are traveling they're going to

have more rentals to choose from they

will still pick the top rentals with the

best experience and pay for them but

they you know everyone else is going to

be can drop their pants on price and

it's it's going to be pretty brutal in

terms of your cash flow next I'm

focusing mostly and I'll call this the

airb and bur model if you guys are not

familiar with the Burr strategy it

stands for buy rehab rent refinance and

repeat you can leverage other people's

money or private money to fund the deal

and the rehab and basically what your

goal here is is to buy a property at

undervalued price that needs a lot of

work so most investors will shy away

from it and then you're going to spend a

lot of money to rehab it and increase

the value of that property once you

rehab it you're going to go to the bank

and say please I would like to

reappraise this property and they're

going to get it appraise at a higher

value and then you're able to take out

you know a large portion of that money

back out of the deal and in a lot of

cases you can take out 100% of that

money invested back out this is what the

you know traditional bird investors are

doing they're leveraging private or hard

money they're funding this deal they

increase the value they pull out all

that money pay back that investor off

they now have 20% of created equity in

the deal and a cash flowing asset now if

you do that with the airbn uh Airbnb

model the airbn bur method this is like

bur on steroids because you're going to

get crazy revenue and crazy cash flow um

this is also a better way to build

serious wealth long term because if

you're constantly rinsing the same money

and pulling it back out of the deal you

can reinvest into the next deal faster

versus just buying a turnkey property

and then waiting to save up another 15

or 20% down uh for down payment intense

deal analysis so this is something I've

always done but I've gotten more strict

on my criteria and you should do this

too if you are not doing a deal analysis

go to

stub. so

stub. and create a free account this is

a totally free website that you guys can

do deal analysis it's very plug-and-play

and what's great about this is you can

run you need to run multiple scenarios

so run your most likely Everyone likes

to run a high scenario oh if I if I

really just knock it out of the park we

could be renting for $500 a night and

we'll be 90% occupied but what happens

if you don't what happens if you come up

short or there's a bad economy for a

year what does your lowside forecast

look like look at the different

scenarios and on the low side you want

to see like a 7 to 10% cash on cash

return conservatively you want an 18 to

20% cash and cash return and then high

side it doesn't really matter at that

point but upside I usually look for 30%

plus so go to strub do a free count I

also recommend using airdna or another

site where you can grab data in a market

now here's the kicker this is where a

lot of people made a huge mistake over

the past few years they jumped on the

Airbnb wave and they were only looking

at the trailing 12 months worth of data

why is that a really awful decision um

is because postco when travel went crazy

especially in the rural markets there

was a huge spike in demand and a lot of

people stopped investing the year prior

or got rid of their short-term rental so

there was limited Supply what happens

when there's crazy demand and low Supply

average daily rates Skyrocket occupancy

skyrockets revenue and cash flow

Skyrocket so what new investors were

doing is they were looking at 2021

information saying oh my gosh I'm going

to rent for this daily rate and this

occupancy meanwhile in 2022 and now 2023

and going to 2024 while demand is still

good and up from preo levels it is not

at the same Heights as it was in 2021 so

that is how you guys can get really in a

hard place is when you over forecast and

then all of a sudden you're struggling

especially with an increased purchase

PRI and higher interest rate so make

sure you're looking at multiple years

worth of information so those are the

things I'm focused on just to recap this

video I don't think Airbnb and

short-term rentals are dead I think a

lot of people are posting these types of

videos and articles cuz it's clickbait

and people you know bad news sells

people want to click on and be told

horror news so they can just stress and

be anxious about it for the next day it

is not you know super easy anymore you

have to do the research you have to set

it up the correct way you have to spend

money on the right things and you have

to manage and compete you know it's not

a it's not 100% a passive investment

it's not so those are the things I would

do be careful who you listen to and who

you take advice from but definitely do

your research and don't just blindly

invest in a deal because that is a quick

way to really regret investing in

short-term rentals in Airbnb if you want

to learn how to be successful and still

have the opportunity to cash flow

thousands of dollars on short-term

rental properties make sure to follow

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