Nachgefragt: Panzergeneral Freuding – Ukraine-Offensive auf Russland und Frontverlauf | Bundeswehr

Summary

In a recent 'Nachgefragt' episode, Generalmajor Dr. Christian Freuding, head of the Ukraine special staff at the German Ministry of Defense, discusses the Ukrainian military's offensive into Russian territory, near Kursk. He explains the strategic intent behind the operation, including relieving pressure on Ukrainian forces in Donbass and demonstrating the ability to take the initiative. Freuding also addresses the psychological impact on both the Ukrainian population and Russia, the potential for a Russian counteroffensive, and the ongoing importance of German support for Ukraine's defense, highlighting the moral and strategic reasons for continued backing.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇦 The Ukraine has launched a surprise offensive into Russian territory in the Kursk region, marking a significant shift in the conflict dynamics.
• 🏰 Ukrainian forces are estimated to be between 4,000 to 6,000 strong for this operation, supported by logistics and air defense from about 2,000 to 4,000 additional forces from the Sumy region.
• 📏 The area of operation is approximately 30 kilometers deep and 65 kilometers wide, totaling around 1,000 square kilometers, which is comparable to the size of the territory Ukraine has lost to Russian forces since the beginning of the year.
• 🔄 As a result of the Ukrainian offensive, around 100,000 Russians have been displaced from the region and moved to the country's interior, as acknowledged by the Russian government.
• 🛡️ Russia is attempting to counter the Ukrainian offensive with infantry, armored forces, special forces, artillery, and air support, but these efforts have not been successful so far.
• 🎯 Ukraine's offensive has multiple objectives, including creating a relief for the heavily pressured defense in Donbass, psychological impact both externally and internally, and potentially using the captured area as a political bargaining chip in the future.
• 🛑 The Russian forces are expected to prepare for counteroffensives, including moving forces from western regions like Kaliningrad, although they have not yet withdrawn forces from their central attack groups in the Donbas.
• 🚨 There is a possibility of observing further offensive movements by Ukraine in other border regions in the near future, as Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to regain initiative through surprise, movement, and speed.
• 🤝 Germany continues to be a significant supporter of Ukraine, with extensive military and financial aid, including plans for delivering air defense systems, artillery, armored vehicles, and logistical support.
• 🕊️ Despite the ongoing conflict, there is an emphasis on the moral imperative, security interests, and alliance politics that guide Germany's continued support for Ukraine's efforts to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
• 🛑 The situation in the Donbass remains critical for Ukraine's defense, with intense fighting and attempts by Russian forces to make gains, particularly around the towns of Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.

Q & A

What is the current situation regarding the Ukrainian military incursion into Russia's Kursk region?

Fighting continued for a third day as Ukrainian troops crossed the Russian border with tanks and armoured vehicles, leading to Russia declaring a state of emergency in the Kursk region. The attack was one of the largest Ukrainian offensives into Russia during the two-year war, and it has forced Moscow to call in reserves. The exact damage and the extent of Ukrainian advances are unclear, but the situation is reportedly deteriorating, with some reports suggesting that the town of Sudzha is under constant shelling and largely lost to Russian control.

What are the implications of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

The incursion into Kursk is a significant development in the conflict, marking one of the largest Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil. It has forced Russia to divert resources and attention to its own defense, and it may be an attempt by Ukraine to gain a stronger bargaining position on the battlefield, especially with concerns that U.S. support could decrease if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election. The strategic significance of the border offensive is still under assessment, but it has undoubtedly increased tensions and could potentially escalate the conflict further.

How has the international community reacted to the Ukrainian use of German and U.S. weapons against targets in Russia?

Germany and the United States have authorized Ukraine to use the long-range weapons they are supplying to hit some targets on Russian soil, particularly in defense of the city of Kharkiv. This is a significant policy change and has drawn a furious response from Moscow, with warnings it could draw Russia into war with NATO. Western leaders have been cautious about easing restrictions on their weapons due to the risk of provoking Russia, but the recent change indicates a shift in strategy to allow Kyiv to strike military bases inside Russia with sophisticated long-range weapons provided by its Western partners.

What is the potential impact of Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia?

The use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia could have serious implications. It represents a significant escalation in the conflict and could provoke a strong response from Russia. There are concerns that such actions could lead to a wider conflict involving NATO and potentially put the world on a path to nuclear conflict, as Russia has warned of the consequences of Western involvement. However, it also provides Ukraine with an opportunity to defend itself more effectively against Russian attacks, particularly in regions like Kharkiv that have been under heavy assault.

What is the significance of the town of Sudzha in the context of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region?

Sudzha is a critical logistics hub and is home to the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. Its capture by Ukrainian forces would disrupt a significant portion of Russia's gas exports to Europe and represents a strategic target in the conflict. Reports suggest that Sudzha is under constant shelling and may be largely lost to Russian control, highlighting the severity of the situation and the potential impact on Russia's energy infrastructure.

What measures has Russia taken in response to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region?

Russia has declared a state of emergency in the Kursk region, rushed reinforcements to the area, and launched air and artillery firepower to repel the attack. Authorities have also evacuated several thousand civilians from the region and cancelled mass gatherings to ensure public safety. These measures reflect the severity of the situation and Russia's efforts to protect its territory and citizens from the incursion.

What is the current status of the gas transit through Sudzha metering station amidst the Ukrainian incursion?

Despite the ongoing conflict and fighting in the region, gas is reportedly still flowing through Sudzha via the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline, which carried about half of Russia's gas exports to Europe in 2023. The continued flow of gas suggests that, at least for now, the transit of energy resources through this critical infrastructure has not been completely disrupted by the incursion.