Minority Rule: First Past the Post Voting

Summary

The video script explores the flaws of the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system using the allegory of the Animal Kingdom's elections. It illustrates issues like minority rule, the emergence of a two-party system, gerrymandering, and the spoiler effect. The script highlights how FPTP can lead to unrepresentative governance and disenfranchisement, suggesting alternative voting systems for a more democratic outcome.

Takeaways

• 👑 The script uses the Animal Kingdom as a metaphor to explain the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system.
• 🐅 The queen lioness, representing the monarchy, sets the rules for the new democratic elections, introducing FPTP.
• 📊 FPTP is criticized for being simple but flawed, as it can lead to minority rule, where the majority of voters do not support the winning candidate.
• 🔄 Over time, FPTP tends to evolve into a two-party system, reducing the diversity of political representation.
• 🐢🐍 The script illustrates how strategic voting and the fear of 'wasting' a vote can lead to the elimination of smaller parties.
• 🦉 The example of Owl voters shows how negative campaigning and fear can influence voters to support candidates they are not fully aligned with.
• 🏆 The two-party system that emerges from FPTP often results in a cycle of power between two main contenders, excluding other voices.
• 📉 The script points out that FPTP can lead to voter disinterest and disengagement due to the feeling of having no meaningful impact on the election outcome.
• 🔍 Gerrymandering is introduced as a potential issue in FPTP, where the drawing of voting boundaries can manipulate election results.
• 🐯 The 'Spoiler Effect' is highlighted, where third-party candidates can inadvertently help the candidate they least agree with by splitting the vote.
• 🤔 The queen lioness considers alternative voting systems that could address the issues with FPTP, such as the Alternative Vote, suggesting there are better options available.

Q & A

What is the voting system described as 'First Past the Post' (FPTP)?

The 'First Past the Post' (FPTP) system, also known as 'Winner Take All', is a voting system where the candidate with the most votes wins the election, regardless of whether they have a majority of the total votes cast.

Why is the FPTP system considered to be problematic in the context of the Animal Kingdom's election?

The FPTP system is problematic because it can lead to minority rule, where the winning candidate may not have the support of the majority of voters. It can also result in an inevitable two-party system over time, reducing the diversity of political representation.

What is the issue of 'minority rule' in the context of the first election in the Animal Kingdom?

The issue of 'minority rule' arises when the winning candidate, in this case, the Leopard, receives only 20% of the votes, yet still wins the election, despite 80% of the voters preferring other candidates.

How does the script illustrate the evolution towards a two-party system in the Animal Kingdom?

The script shows that over several election cycles, smaller parties drop out as they realize they cannot win, and voters begin to strategically vote for the candidate with the best chance of winning, leading to a consolidation around two main parties, Gorilla and Leopard.

What is the impact of strategic voting on the political landscape in the Animal Kingdom?

Strategic voting, where voters choose candidates based on who has the best chance of winning rather than their preferred choice, leads to a reduction in the number of parties and a shift towards a two-party system.

Why do voters from smaller parties like Snake and Turtle decide to drop out of future races?

Voters from smaller parties like Snake and Turtle drop out because they face dismal results and the cost of their campaigns, realizing that their preferred candidates have little to no chance of winning under the FPTP system.

What is the concept of 'gerrymandering' mentioned in the script?

Gerrymandering is the practice of manipulating electoral boundaries to favor one party or class over another. In the script, it is used to illustrate how the grouping of voters can influence election outcomes under the FPTP system.

How does the script explain the 'Spoiler Effect' in the context of the FPTP system?

The 'Spoiler Effect' is when a third-party candidate takes votes away from a similar candidate, thereby ensuring a win for the party they least prefer. In the script, the entry of Tiger as a third-party candidate splits the vote with Leopard, leading to a win for Gorilla.

What does the Queen Lioness consider as the criteria for a good voting system?

The Queen Lioness considers a good voting system to be one where voters can vote for their most preferred candidate without worry, one that offers more choice in representatives, is not susceptible to gerrymandering, and is open to new political parties.

What alternative voting system is hinted at by the Queen Lioness as a potential solution to the problems with FPTP?

The Queen Lioness hints at the 'Alternative Vote' system as a potential solution to the problems with FPTP, suggesting it could offer a more representative and fair voting method.

What is the significance of the Queen Lioness's role in observing and contemplating the election system?

The Queen Lioness's role is significant as she represents a figure of authority who is capable of enacting change. Her observation and contemplation of the election system suggest that there may be a shift towards a more representative and fair voting method in the future.

Outlines

00:00

🦁 Introduction to First Past the Post Voting System

This paragraph introduces the concept of the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system using an allegory of the Animal Kingdom's transition from monarchy to democracy. The queen lioness, to maintain control, sets the rules for elections, where the candidate with the most votes wins. The paragraph outlines the initial excitement of the new democratic process and the first election's results, highlighting the flaws of FPTP such as minority rule, where the winning candidate, the leopard, only received 20% of the votes, representing a minority of the citizens' choice.

05:04

🐍 The Evolution of Two-Party System and Strategic Voting

This paragraph delves into the long-term consequences of the FPTP system, illustrating how it inevitably leads to a two-party system. It describes how voters for less popular candidates, like Snake and Turtle, strategically shift their votes to more viable candidates over time to prevent their least favorite from winning. This shift results in the gradual elimination of smaller parties, leaving only Gorilla and Leopard as the dominant contenders. The paragraph also touches on the concept of gerrymandering and its potential impact on election outcomes, as well as the 'Spoiler Effect,' where third-party candidates can inadvertently harm the chances of their ideologically closest competitors.

Keywords

💡First Past the Post (FPTP)

First Past the Post (FPTP), also known as Winner Take All, is a voting system where the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the election. It is the focus of the video's critique, as it is shown to lead to minority rule and a two-party system. In the script, the Animal Kingdom's election under FPTP results in Leopard winning with only 20% of the vote, illustrating the system's potential to elect a candidate that does not represent the majority's preference.

💡Monarchy

A monarchy is a form of government in which a single individual, usually known as a king or queen, holds supreme power. In the video, the Lion and Lioness represent a traditional monarchy that is transitioning to a democratic system due to citizen protests, highlighting the contrast between absolute power and the democratic process.

💡Election

An election is a formal process by which people choose their representatives in a government. The video script revolves around the concept of elections, particularly the first election in the Animal Kingdom, where the FPTP system is applied and the problems associated with it are explored.

💡Citizens

Citizens are the inhabitants of a particular place who are entitled to vote and have a say in their governance. In the script, the citizens of the Animal Kingdom are seeking a voice in their governance, leading to the transition from monarchy to an elected system.

💡Voting

Voting is the act of expressing one's choice for a candidate or issue, typically in an election. The video discusses various aspects of voting, including the strategic voting of Snake and Turtle voters and the implications of the FPTP system on voter behavior.

💡Two-Party System

A two-party system is a political system where two parties dominate the political landscape, often to the exclusion of smaller parties. The video script demonstrates how the FPTP system in the Animal Kingdom leads to a two-party system, with Gorilla and Leopard being the only remaining candidates after several election cycles.

💡Minority Rule

Minority rule occurs when a candidate or party wins an election despite not having the support of the majority of voters. The video uses the first election in the Animal Kingdom as an example of minority rule, where Leopard wins with only 20% of the vote, while 80% of the citizens wanted other candidates.

💡Strategic Voting

Strategic voting is when voters choose to vote for a candidate they believe has a better chance of winning, rather than their true preference, to prevent a less favored candidate from winning. In the script, Snake and Turtle voters engage in strategic voting, choosing Gorilla and Leopard over their true preferences, which contributes to the two-party system.

💡Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor one party or class. The video briefly mentions gerrymandering as a potential issue in the FPTP system, where the division of voters into groups can influence election outcomes, even though the concept is not fully explored in the script.

💡Spoiler Effect

The spoiler effect occurs when a third-party candidate takes votes away from a similar candidate, potentially causing the less preferred candidate to win. In the video, Tiger's entry into the race as a third-party candidate leads to his votes coming mostly from Leopard voters, resulting in Gorilla's victory over Leopard.

💡Centrist Voters

Centrist voters are those who hold moderate political views, often aligning with neither extreme of the political spectrum. In the script, Owl voters are described as centrist, and their strategic voting against the candidate they dislike rather than for the one they like contributes to the eventual two-party system.

💡Democratic Process

The democratic process refers to the system of governance in which power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or through freely elected representatives. The video discusses the dissatisfaction of the majority of voters with the democratic process under the FPTP system, as their preferences are not meaningfully represented.

Highlights

The Royal Family of lions faces protests and pressure for democratic governance, leading to the introduction of an elected monarchy.

The Queen Lioness retains power to set election rules, introducing the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system.

FPTP is criticized as a flawed system that can lead to minority rule, as demonstrated by the first election results.

The first election in the Animal Kingdom sees seven candidates, with the Leopard winning despite only 20% of the vote.

The second election cycle illustrates the shift towards a two-party system due to strategic voting and candidate dropouts.

Strategic voting by Snake and Turtle voters leads to the Gorilla winning the second election with 28% of the vote.

The third election sees the Owl voters' influence diminish as they split their votes, leading to Leopard's victory.

Owl, Snake, and Turtle candidates drop out, reducing the political landscape to a Gorilla vs. Leopard dynamic.

Monkey and Tiger voters strategically abandon their preferred candidates, leading to Gorilla's win with 51% of the vote.

The final election solidifies the two-party system, with Gorilla and Leopard alternating in power.

The majority of voters remain disinterested as their first choice is rarely represented in the two-party system.

Gerrymandering is introduced as a method to manipulate election outcomes by drawing voting boundaries.

The Spoiler Effect is highlighted, where third-party candidates can inadvertently harm their ideological allies.

Gorilla's victory in the face of a strong third-party candidate demonstrates the spoiler's negative impact.

The Queen Lioness recognizes the flaws in the FPTP system and contemplates alternative voting methods.

The alternative vote is hinted at as a potential solution to the issues presented by the FPTP system.

The video concludes with a call for a more representative and less susceptible voting system.

Transcripts

Welcome to the problem with first past the post voting explained by me, C. G. P. Grey

The royal family has a problem. But this isn't just any royal family, these are the lions

-- rulers of the jungle since time immemorial.

There are protests over the monarchy's absolute power and the citizens of the Animal Kingdom

want a say in how they are governed.

Bending to the pressure, Lion has abdicated his crown and king is to be an elected office.

To ensure a smooth transition -- and because she is craftier than her husband -- the queen

lioness is remaining on the throne with the power to set the rules for all elections in

her kingdom.

She has declared that all citizens get one and only one vote and that the candidate with

the most votes wins the crown.

This method of voting is most often called First Past the Post (awkwardly abbreviated

as FPTP) or Winner Take All.

This system is simple, fair and logical. Right?

Actually, no.

It's a terrible, terrible idea.

Why?

Well, to see the problems with first past the post, lets watch the first election unfold

in the Animal Kingdom

It's an exciting time for the burgeoning democracy and seven hopeful candidates come forward

to run and represent their parties. They put on their best campaigns, citizens head out

to the polls and the votes are counted. The results come in as follows:

Turtle gets 9% of the vote.

Monkey gets 18%.

Gorilla gets 19%.

Owl gets 13%.

Leopard gets 20%.

Tiger gets 15%.

Snake gets 6%.

Under the rules of First Past the Post, Leopard is Crowned the winner and she gets to rule

for the length of her term.

But take another look at the results, and you see the first problem with this system:

minority rule. The vast majority of citizens -- 80% -- wanted someone else as king, but

Leopard still won. There were only seven candidates in this race but if you imagine that had been

twenty, she might only gotten 5% of the vote, but still been elected.

This problem with minority rule is only the beginning.

The second problem with first past the post is that, given enough time, it results in

an inevitable, unavoidable two-party system.

Why?

To see, lets watch what happens over several election cycles...

Leopard has had her term in office and it's election time in the young democracy. Only

now, all the citizens of the Animal Kingdom remember the results from last time.

This information changes how they will behave. Particularly Snake and Turtle voters -- who

must face the reality that they backed unappealing, extremist candidates who don't have a chance

of winning.

Turtle voters, who were unhappy under Leopard rule, decided to back the candidate who has

the best chance winning, Gorilla.

Now snake voters want to vote for Tiger -- who is the candidate they have the most in common

with, but they are afraid to because Leopard is running a negative campaign against her

competitors.

Snake voters, not liking the idea of Gorilla rule, vote strategically for Leopard.

The final results look like this, with Leopard getting 26% of the vote and Gorilla getting

28, making him the new king.

Snake and Turtle, seeing their dismal results and the cost of their campaigns decide to

drop out of future races.

What started out as a seven party system is now down to five.

Fast-Forward to the next election:

Only five candidates run, and again the voters remember what happened last time.

In this election, it's Owl voters who recognize that their candidate cannot win. They are

centrist voters and less ideological than the rest of the Animal Kingdom -- as such

they don't really like either Gorilla or Leopard.

Both Gorilla and Leopard know this, so they each negative campaigns to capitalize on the

fears of the centrists.

Owl voters split their vote, and are mostly voting against the candidate they dislike,

rather than supporting the candidate they do like.

After this election, Gorilla gets 33% of the vote and leopard gets 34% making her the winner.

Owl, as did Turtle and Snake before her, drops out of the race.

In the last election we will look at, Monkey and Tiger voters are unhappy. They both really

like the candidates they have supported, but they have to compromise. Monkey voters, agree

with Gorilla on a few issues but they really don't like Leopard. Tiger voters agree with

leopard on some issues, but really don't like Gorilla.

They strategically abandon their preferred candidate out of fear of the one they disagree

with the most becoming king.

The final results are Leopard 49% and Gorilla 51% with him being crowned king.

Monkey and Tiger are the last candidates to drop out and now the Animal Kingdom is left

with a two party system.

Because of the centrist and sway-able Owl voters, in future elections Leopard might

take the crown, then Gorilla wins it back, only to lose it two Leopard again, but the

two parties never change.

The citizens of animal kingdom ended up with this system, not because they are lazy voters

or because its what they really wanted, but because of the mathematics of how the system

is set up.

Inevitably, given enough time, all first past the post systems trend towards two main parties.

But the choices of the voters still hasn't changed since that first election. Only two-fifths

of them want either Leopard or Gorilla as their first choice and 3/5ths of them want

someone else as their first choice.

It's this majority of the voters that become disinterested in the democratic process because

they feel they have no meaningful way to express their real preferences.

But it only gets worse from here. If the citizens of Animal Kingdom are divided into groups

before they vote, they are susceptible to gerrymandering.

Gerrymandering is a bit tricky, but imagine a block of ten homes each with one voter inside.

Three are Leopard voters, three are Gorilla voters and four are Owl voters.

If the voters are divided up into groups before they vote, whoever decides where the lines

are drawn has enormous influence on who will win the election.

For example, if you group the three Leopard voters with two Owl voters and do the same

with the three gorilla voters. You can illuminate owl from the election, even though owl voters

have the largest minority and should win under a straight first-past-the post vote.

If the leopard and gorilla parties are in charge when the voting boundaries are drawn,

they have enormous incentive to carve out safe seats for themselves.

But more on Gerrymandering in another video.

Bah! You say, Vote 3rd party and change the system!

This brings us to the final, and possibly worst, problem of First Past the Post: the

Spoiler Effect

Imagine now its been years and years of Gorilla and Leopard rule.

Tiger decides it's time to enter the race. He thinks that the voters are tired of the

status-quo and he has a shot at winning.

He sets up his campaign office, gets a surprising amount of gold in donations and gets on the

Animal News Network to debate with the main candidates.

Election night comes around, but alas, Tiger gets only 15% of the vote -- mostly from Leopard

voters, who are closest to him on the political spectrum. Gorilla easily beats Leopard and

gets to be king.

The first past the post system at its worst: the better a 3rd party candidate does, the

more it hurts its own voters by guaranteeing a loss for the party they most agree with

and a win for the party they disagree with.

And don't forget, Gorilla is no fool: he knows how the system works. Where do you think some

of those gold donations came from?

Meanwhile, The Queen Lioness is displeased.

She's been observing the elections and sees that the system is bad for her subjects. And

she's been thinking, what makes a good voting system? Well...

You should be able to vote for the candidate you like the most, without worrying.

More choice in representatives is better.

The system shouldn't be susceptible to gerrymandering.

And it should be open to new political parties.

Luckily for the queen, there are several different voting systems to choose from -- including

the alternative vote. But that will have to be discussed in detail at another time.

Thank you very much for watching.