La media de 100 en SP500 tiene la clave. Apertura 8 8 2024 bolsas, economía y mercados

Summary

In this market update, José Luis Carpatos discusses the volatile state of the markets, noting a significant drop in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and others due to instability and geopolitical tensions. He highlights the impact of Japan's central bank's policy on the yen and the market's reaction to Super Micro Computer's poor results, which affected Nvidia's stock. Carpatos also mentions analysts' predictions of sustained volatility, potential market downturns, and the importance of watching key technical levels like the 5300 resistance and 5000 support.

Takeaways

• 📉 Markets remain unstable, with no clear direction as volatility persists.
• 📊 The Nikkei index dropped 0.74% due to concerns over Japan's interest rate policies.
• 📉 Wall Street's late-session dip caused a 3% drop in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
• 📉 Supermicro's poor results negatively impacted Nvidia, which fell by 5.12%.
• 💹 Analysts expect continued market volatility, possibly until September's options expiration.
• ⚠️ Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and Israel, add to market uncertainty.
• 📉 Commodity prices continue to decline, signaling potential recession risks.
• 📉 JP Morgan raised recession probabilities to 35%, citing weak demand in the bond market.
• 📈 Bitcoin rose by 3.54%, contrasting with the instability in other markets.
• 📉 Technical analysis suggests that if the S&P 500 stays below 5,300, further declines could be imminent, possibly reaching 5,000.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?

The main topic discussed in the video script is the current instability in the financial markets, with a focus on the performance of various stock indices and the impact of economic factors and geopolitical tensions.

What time did the video recording start according to the script?

The video recording started at 8:30 in the morning Spanish time, which is 2:30 in the morning New York time.

What was the general market trend mentioned for the day prior to the recording?

The general market trend mentioned for the day prior to the recording was initially a rebound, but it ended with a significant drop of nearly 3% in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices.

How did the Japanese Central Bank's statements affect the markets?

The Japanese Central Bank's statements initially caused a temporary rebound due to the governor's comments about not raising interest rates. However, the release of the minutes from the bank's last meeting indicated a willingness to continue raising rates, which negatively affected the markets.

What company's poor results significantly impacted the market and Nvidia's stock price?

Super Micro Computer's poor results significantly impacted the market and caused Nvidia's stock price to plummet, with a drop of 5.12%.

What is the potential impact of the current market volatility on future market trends?

The current market volatility, as discussed in the script, may persist for some time and could lead to a potential increase towards the end of the year, but the beginning of 2025 is painted as concerning and potentially unstable.

What does the script suggest about the short-term outlook for market volatility?

The script suggests that market volatility is expected to persist at least until the September options expiration, with a possible significant rebound towards the end of the year.

What was the reaction of JP Morgan to the current market conditions?

JP Morgan commented on the high possibilities of recession and noted that they have already unwound 75% of their carry trade operations in Japan, indicating a reduction in market bullishness.

How did the script describe the impact of geopolitical tensions on the market?

The script described that geopolitical tensions, such as the potential for Iran to attack Israel at any moment, are contributing to market instability alongside concerns over global growth.

What technical analysis points were discussed regarding the S&P 500 index?

The technical analysis points discussed for the S&P 500 index included the importance of the 100-day moving average as a resistance level at 5308, and the significance of the 200-day moving average at around 5115 as a potential support level.

What are the potential scenarios for the market based on the script's analysis?

The potential scenarios for the market based on the script's analysis are a bullish scenario if the market surpasses the resistance level of 5315, leading to a possible rise to 5400, and a bearish scenario if the market falls below 5125, which could lead to a rapid decline towards 5000.