ASIO boss explains why mixed ideologies have seen terror threat rise | 7.30

Summary

In this program, Mike Burge discusses the recent elevation of Australia's national terrorism threat level to 'probable,' indicating a greater than 50% chance of a terrorist act within the year. He highlights the rapid radicalization of individuals, including minors, driven by a mix of ideologies and grievances, facilitated by the internet and social media. Burge emphasizes the responsibility of the community, including parents and educators, in monitoring and addressing radicalization, and touches on the indirect impact of global events like the conflict in Gaza on domestic security.

Takeaways

• 📈 The national terrorism Threat Level has been raised to 'probable', indicating a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism within the next 12 months.
• 🔍 The increase is not due to a single incident but a pattern of incidents, with eight attacks or disruptions involving alleged terrorism in the last four months.
• 👥 A notable trend is the involvement of minors and youth in these incidents, with the oldest being 21 and the youngest 14.
• 🌐 The motivations behind these incidents are diverse, including religious, nationalist, racist, and mixed ideologies, not just the traditional focus areas.
• 📉 There has been a significant drop in case load related to ISIS since the caliphate's defeat, but the threat has evolved with new forms of radicalization emerging.
• 🌐 The internet and social media are key factors in the rapid radicalization of individuals, particularly affecting the youth.
• 🔒 The community, including parents, educators, and everyday people, have a responsibility to be aware of and counteract radicalization, especially among young people.
• 🏭 The rise of 'accelerationists', individuals with far-right ideologies who aim to bring down society, is a concerning development in the threat landscape.
• 🌍 The conflict in Gaza and the reactions to it have indirectly influenced the threat level by driving strong emotions and reactions, making violence seem more permissible.
• 🗣️ Politicians and the media have a crucial role in using careful language and reporting to avoid inflaming tensions and contributing to violence.
• 🔎 Espionage and foreign interference remain significant security concerns, and the agency is working to identify and address threats across multiple fronts.

Q & A

What does the term 'probable' mean in the context of the national terrorism Threat Level?

In the context of the national terrorism Threat Level, 'probable' indicates a greater than 50% chance that within the next 12 months, an individual or small group will resort to violence with little or no warning to commit an act of terrorism.

What was the last time the national terrorism Threat Level was lowered, and why was it raised previously?

The national terrorism Threat Level was last lowered in November 2022. It was previously raised in 2014 due to the rise of ISIS and the radicalization of individuals influenced by their ideology and charismatic leaders.

How has the environment changed in the last 10-12 months to warrant a change in the Threat Level?

The environment has changed with more people being radicalized more quickly, and from a range of grievances and ideologies, not just the ones seen in 2014. This includes a broader set and mixing of ideologies where violence is seen as permissible.

What does the increase in incidents involving minors signify about the current threat landscape?

The increase in incidents involving minors, with the oldest being 21 and the youngest 14, indicates that youth are particularly vulnerable to rapid radicalization, often driven by social media and isolation.

What is the significance of the mixed ideology observed in some of the recent terrorism-related incidents?

The mixed ideology, such as individuals being influenced by both extreme left and right-wing ideologies, signifies a complex and broad threat landscape where people are turning to violence as a solution from diverse ideological backgrounds.

How has the role of social media contributed to the radicalization of individuals, especially the youth?

Social media has played a significant role in the rapid radicalization of individuals, including the youth, by providing easy access to extremist content and allowing them to connect with like-minded individuals without the moderating influences of community and school environments.

What is the role of the community, including parents and educators, in addressing the issue of radicalization?

The community, including parents, caregivers, educators, and everyday people, has a responsibility to be aware of what captivates young people online and to intervene when necessary. It is crucial to understand and manage the potential dangers of unsupervised internet usage.

What is the current assessment of Sunni violent extremism in Australia, and how does it factor into the threat landscape?

While Sunni violent extremism represents a small number of individuals with a perverse view of Islam, it is a factor in the current threat environment. However, it is not the sole reason for the raised Threat Level, as there is an equal mix of religious and broader ideological motivations.

What is the definition of 'accelerationists', and how do they fit into the current extremist landscape?

Accelerationists are individuals with a far-right ideology, often neo-Nazis or further extreme, who believe in white supremacy and wish for societal downfall to return to what they believe is the rightful order. They are part of the extremist landscape, sharing information on how to conduct attacks or disrupt societal functions.

How does the conflict in Gaza indirectly impact the threat level, and what is the role of protests in this context?

The conflict in Gaza indirectly impacts the threat level by driving emotional protests and division. While peaceful protests are part of lawful dissent, the potential for spontaneous violence and the normalization of violence for political objectives are concerning.

What is the responsibility of politicians and the media in the current security environment, especially regarding language and reporting?

Politicians and the media have a significant role in being careful with their language and reporting to avoid inflaming tensions and leading to violence. They should lead by example in promoting calm and responsible discourse.

Are there active Hamas or Hezbollah groups plotting in Australia, and what is the stance on foreign interference and espionage?

There are no active Hamas or Hezbollah groups plotting in Australia. However, there are individuals who may be sympathetic and supportive, which is illegal and will be dealt with by authorities. Foreign interference and espionage remain principal security concerns, with the agency working to identify and address these threats.

Outlines

00:00

🔒 National Terrorism Threat Level Raised to 'Probable'

The interview begins with Mike Burge discussing the elevation of the national terrorism threat level to 'probable,' indicating a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism occurring within the next 12 months. This change is not due to a specific incident but rather a general trend of increasing radicalization, particularly among minors, and the broadening range of ideologies that now include violence as a permissible response. The discussion also touches on the rapid radicalization facilitated by social media and the internet, which has led to a diverse set of grievances and ideologies, not limited to the traditional religious extremism but also encompassing nationalist, racist, and mixed ideologies.

05:01

👨‍👧‍👦 Community and Family Responsibility in Youth Radicalization

This paragraph delves into the societal and familial responsibilities in addressing the radicalization of young people. It emphasizes the importance of community involvement, including parents, educators, and everyday citizens, in monitoring and understanding the online activities of children. The rapid descent into radical ideologies facilitated by social media and the internet during lockdowns is highlighted, with a call to action for vigilance against the dangers of unsupervised online exposure. The paragraph also discusses the resurgence of neo-Nazism and the role of accelerationists who aim to bring down society, as well as the global connections among these groups, using platforms like Telegram to share violent tactics and strategies.

10:03

🏛️ The Impact of International Conflicts and the Role of Politicians

The final paragraph addresses the indirect impact of international conflicts, such as the situation in Gaza, on domestic security, noting how such events can drive strong emotions and reactions, potentially leading to violence. It also discusses the role of politicians and the media in this context, urging them to be mindful of their language and reporting to avoid inciting violence. The conversation turns to the ongoing concerns of espionage and foreign interference, with the acknowledgment that these threats persist alongside the rise in domestically motivated politically violent acts. The interview concludes with a reflection on the challenges faced by security agencies in addressing these multifaceted threats, with a commitment to adapt and respond effectively.

Keywords

💡National Terrorism Threat Level

The National Terrorism Threat Level is a measure used by security agencies to communicate the likelihood of a terrorist attack. In the script, it is mentioned that the level has been lifted to 'probable,' indicating a greater than 50% chance of an attack within the next 12 months. This sets the context for the discussion on the current state of terrorism threats.

💡Radicalization

Radicalization refers to the process by which an individual or group comes to adopt extreme political or religious ideals that justify violence. The script discusses how more people are being radicalized more quickly, with a range of grievances and ideologies driving this process, highlighting the urgency of the situation.

💡Caliphate

The term 'Caliphate' is used in the script to refer to the Islamic State's claimed territory and authority, which was a significant factor in the previous raising of the threat level in 2014. The defeat of the Caliphate is contrasted with the current rise in radicalization, showing a shift in the nature of the threat.

💡Violent Extremism

Violent extremism encompasses the belief systems and actions of individuals or groups who advocate for or engage in violent acts to achieve their goals. The script mentions an equal mix of religiously motivated, nationalist, and racist violent extremism, illustrating the diverse range of ideologies that can lead to terrorism.

💡Youth and Minors

The script highlights the involvement of minors and youth in recent terrorism-related incidents, with the youngest being 14 years old. This underscores the vulnerability of young people to radicalization and the need for community and family vigilance.

💡Social Media

Social media is identified in the script as a significant factor in the rapid radicalization of individuals, particularly young people. It allows for the quick dissemination of extremist ideologies and the formation of online communities that can reinforce violent beliefs.

💡Sunni Violent Extremism

Sunni violent extremism is a subset of religiously motivated terrorism, where individuals misinterpret Sunni Islam to justify acts of violence. The script clarifies that while it is a factor in the current threat environment, it is not the sole reason for the raised threat level.

💡Neo-Nazis

Neo-Nazis are individuals or groups who adhere to ideologies similar to those of the Nazi Party, including white supremacy and anti-Semitism. The script mentions neo-Nazis as a prominent part of the current mix of threats, indicating their continued activity and potential for violence.

💡Mixed Ideology

Mixed ideology refers to individuals who adopt elements from multiple extremist belief systems, which can include both far-left and far-right views. The script provides an example of an individual with a mix of antifa and neo-Nazi beliefs, demonstrating the complexity of modern extremist thought.

💡Accelerationism

Accelerationism is a belief among some extremists that society should be pushed towards collapse to facilitate the establishment of a new order. The script describes accelerationists as individuals who may engage in acts to disrupt societal infrastructure, such as power stations, to hasten societal downfall.

💡Espionage and Foreign Interference

Espionage and foreign interference are identified in the script as ongoing security concerns alongside politically motivated violence. These activities involve the covert gathering of information and attempts to influence political processes, respectively, and are highlighted as areas where the security agency remains vigilant.

Highlights

Mike Burges has raised the national terrorism threat level to 'probable', meaning there's a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism in the next 12 months.

The increase in the threat level is due to more people being radicalized more quickly, and a wider range of grievances and ideologies leading to violence.

In the last four months, there have been eight attacks or disruptions involving alleged terrorism or potential acts of terrorism.

Five of the eight recent incidents involved minors or youth, with ages ranging from 14 to 21.

There is an equal mix of religiously motivated, nationalist, and racist violent extremism in the recent incidents.

A new trend is emerging where individuals may hold mixed ideologies, such as a combination of extreme left-wing and neo-Nazi beliefs.

The internet and social media play a significant role in rapid radicalization, especially among youth.

Sunni violent extremism still poses a threat, but it is not the main driver behind the recent increase in the threat level.

Neo-Nazis remain a significant part of the terrorism threat, with some individuals seeking to accelerate societal downfall.

Young people are particularly vulnerable to radicalization through social media and isolation.

There are global connections among extremist groups, particularly in the neo-Nazi space, where individuals communicate and share information on platforms like Telegram.

The conflict in Gaza has indirectly influenced the terrorism threat level by driving protests and strong emotions.

Politicians and the media have a responsibility to use careful language to avoid inflaming tensions that could lead to violence.

Foreign interference and espionage remain principal security concerns alongside politically motivated violence.

There is no active plotting by Hamas or Hezbollah in Australia, but there are individuals who may be sympathetic to or support these groups.

The Iranian secret service has conducted surveillance in Australia, potentially including lethal operations.

Transcripts

Mike burges welcome to the program thank

you you've lifted the national terrorism

Threat Level to probable what does

probable mean in the world of

intelligence so it's a greater than 50%

chance that in the next 12 months an

individual or small group of individuals

will go to violence um with little or no

warning I conduct an act of terrorism or

plan an act of terrorism so what's

changed what has your organization seen

that's Chang to Warrant this certainly

so ao's role is to set the national

terrorism Threat Level it was last

lowered in November 2022 and that was

off the back of its raising in 2014 when

we had the caliphate starting and we had

an ideology and charismatic individuals

that were radicalizing people and taking

them to do attacks on Shore and just to

remind people that's Isis when you're

talking about the calate that's Isis

correct yes um obviously in 2022 we saw

a significant drop off in our case load

the caliphate had been defeated and it

wasn't resonating here on Shore and we

had a good news story of a great number

of people no longer a problem to

security since that time though

obviously the environment has changed

particularly in the last 10 12 months um

where today we have and it's completely

different to when it was raised in 2014

more people are being radicalized more

quickly more people think violence is

permissible from a range of Grievances

and ideologies not just what we saw when

we raised it in

2014 now in the last four months you

said today there have been eight attacks

or disruptions involving alleged

terrorism or potential acts of terrorism

did those incidents those eight events

specifically lead to the change today

not directly of course one incident or a

couple of incidents are not a reason to

raise the Threat Level but they are an

indication of what we're seeing in

society across those eight incidents

we're talking about five of them involve

minors or youth the oldest was 21 the

youngest was 14 the other um across the

eight there's an equal mix of

religiously motivated Nationalist and

racist violent extremism and in one case

a mixed ideology that goes to the left

and right and deliberately I say those

words which defies logic but it's an

indication of the broad set and the

mixing set of ideologies where people

think violence is the answer they were

all but too unknown to us and police so

this is the new thing people will go to

violence with a little no warning and

they won't be known to us or little or

no planning in the cases of some of

these that I've talked about so um

people of course will remember the uh

the event in wakeley the the stabbing of

the bishop and then uh a series of

counterterrorism raids that took place

so you're talking about six incidents or

events since that time that's correct

what can you tell us about those events

well more broadly again they they're

symptomatic of the what we're seeing in

society increased temperature violence

is more permissible and a range of

ideology so we see that religiously

motivated Nationalist and racist and

mixed ideology minors are in the mix the

youth are particularly vulnerable driven

by social media that isolation problem

it's easier to be radicalized and of

course people are being radicalized

quickly the internet is a great thing

but it also allows individuals to catch

on to something and get there in a

matter of days not months or years and

that's particularly concerning now in

February you warned that Sunni violent

extremism well you said that Sunni

violent extremism poses the greatest

religiously motivated threat in

Australia how much is that driving this

threat ass assessment just to be clear

so not much of that is driving that yes

that is certainly in our mix and if I

can be clear of course when I say Sunni

violent extremism I'm talking about

people who have a small number of people

have a perverse view of the religion

Islam they don't represent the religion

they believe they do but that's not

people of Islamic faith but that is a

factor in our environment but that's not

the reason why we've raised the Threat

Level today in these eight examples how

much of those are religious are

religiously motivated there's a few in

there it's not more than half though and

it's not half actually of um there's an

equal mix of um religious and broader

ideological or mixed ideology talk to

talk to us about that mixed ideology so

we understand it when you say

ideological What ideologies so one

particular instant we have an individual

that's Ed on to antifa so extreme left

wing but actually in the manifesto

there's

neo-nazis that defies logic um I'd

suggest they're not really hooked on

either of those ideologies they're

hooked on the violence elements of that

of course that is subject to much study

and much more study that we have to do

to understand it let's talk about the

young people because it was clear in

some of the information that we saw that

emerged at the time of the joint

counterterrorism raids that there were

some those things you're talking about

small groups very Speedy

radicalization but young people in

particular what responsibility does the

community have and the families have

yeah absolutely so so when I mean when

the police or Security Service involved

it's too late there's acts in

preparation acts underway we all have a

responsibility this is a whole of

society parents caregivers Educators

coaches and sporting team Everyday

People it's really important knowing

what your children are up to knowing

what this is captivating them online of

course we can have a long conversation

about the difficulties in managing all

of that but that's incredibly important

in Co when people were locked down we

50% of my priority cter terrorism case

load were minors locked in their bedroom

on their devices you can fall down a

rabbit of hate quickly Rabbit Hole of

hate quickly not moderated by the events

of schoolyard and Community groups all

the positive benefits of family ings of

course CO's no longer with us but it's

still an issue it's a concern how social

media can grab people quickly the

internet can grab people quickly and

hurt young brains which are not fully

formed and so in the case of these

events that we're looking at this year

you've mentioned so far you have got um

some part of Sunni violent extremism

you've got far left meets far right what

else is in that mix neo-nazis are a big

portion of our mix so that's long been a

thing in this country at one point it

was 50% of our investive case load it's

dropped off but it's still prominent

they're still active most of the work of

neo-nazis is to recruit to their cause

unlikely to go to acts of terrorism of

course it's the individuals that come

into those groups and don't like that

moderation or elements of that neonazi

ideology that are called acceleration

it's those people who want to bring down

society and they will undertake acts to

accelerate the downfall of society as we

know it today and what do we know about

the connections that people especially

young people have with individuals

overseas I know you say there's a lot of

people who are radicalizing very quickly

but there are still influential older

people involved aren't there uh there

there are um but we also have on the

first side um youngsters who are

actually leading groups so that's kind

of a it's a thing um on in the Neo-Nazi

space accelerationists there is a group

that's connected globally they use apps

where they're talking to each other

Telegram and a channel called terram and

they're communicating with each other

they're generating manuals they're

sharing information on how to do attacks

or how to disrupt a power station

because accelerationists will turn the

power off to try and bring Society down

what's an accelerationist so it's people

with a far right ideology Neo-Nazi or

even further where they believe in white

supremacy and they don't like the way

the world is run today and they want it

to downfall to return things to what

they believe is the rightful order and

you said that in relation to some of

these behaviors they did gain momentum

after the terrorist attacks on Israel

and accelerated during Israel's response

what role then in that element of this

what role is the war playing well it's a

it's not a direct so we didn't raise a

threat level in direct response to the

conflict in Gaza but of course it has an

indirect impact it has driven protest it

has driven division

it's and those protests are getting very

emotional and there's been spontaneous

violence and it becomes a bit of its own

weather system and the wrong thing

happens and it fires up the other wrong

thing so it's driving very strong

emotions and strong reactions and again

that's our concern violence is more

permissible for your political objective

or promoting your cause peaceful protest

is absolutely fine in this country

lawful dissent is fine but when it

becomes unpeaceful and unlawful that's

when we know we have a problem what role

do politician Ians have then In This

Moment particularly when it comes to

language politicians have exceptional

role here but so does the whole of

community after the 7th of October I put

out a statement that said inflame

language inflame tension leads to

violence politicians absolutely lead the

charge there in terms of being careful

of their words and actions the media if

I may the media have a responsibility in

terms of how they report by all means

report what you need to report but how

you do it really does matter now we've

got used to you talking about Espionage

and in particular foreign interference

so with this increase that's led to the

um to this new designation I presume

that doesn't mean that foreign

interference and Espionage has

diminished in any way sadly not

Espionage and foreign interference are

still principal security concerns and

unfortunately as of today so is

politically motivated violence my agency

is stretched but our job is to identify

these threats and with our partners in

law enforcement and elsewhere deal with

them um let me just ask you this do

formally we're talking about informal

groupings here but just on the formal

side do Hamas and Hezbollah have uh

Representatives strong Connections in

Australia there are people in this

country that will be sympathetic to and

may well support them of course if

they're supporting them they're breaking

the law and if we find them the police

will be informed and that will be dealt

with we don't have active Hamas or

Hezbollah groups plotting things in this

country absolutely not um at the same

time we know that the Iranian Secret

Service have moved moved against media

representatives in other parts of the

world in there was a stabbing in London

do they pose a threat in the same way in

Australia we've caught the Iranians here

um surveilling individuals in this

country they they're a country that's

capable of dealing with threats to their

country as they see them including

surveillance and potentially worse of

course when we see that we deal with it

and a few years ago Minister O'Neal was

talking about how we found that and we

dealt with that um when you say

potentially worse can you explain what

you mean by potentially wor up to

including lethal operations as in

killing someone as in assassinations yes

um has that threat continued after the

last time it was talked about um we keep

an open investigation to that but of

course in public I wouldn't disclose

what we know because obviously that

might stop us from doing our job well um

you just mentioned that you are stretch

because you're talking about having to

deal with a a huge number of fronts

different ideologies as well as

Espionage and foreign interference does

need more money with the dangerous world

we live in we are stretch but you

appreciate if I needed more money I'd

ask that in private to government my job

as director on Securities to make sure I

have the laws and the resource to do our

job we're stretched is probably all I'd

want to say publicly Mike burges thank

you very much indeed for joining us

thanks for your time