拜登連任機會大跌,特朗普再做總統。美國大選如何影響股市? [ENG+中文CC]
Summary
TLDRThis video discusses the potential impacts of the 2024 U.S. election on the stock market, focusing on the rematch between Trump and Biden. It highlights how market performance typically weakens in pre-election years but rebounds post-election as uncertainties clear. The video delves into industry-specific effects, noting sectors that could benefit from a Trump win, such as fossil fuel companies and U.S.-based manufacturers, and those at risk, like import-reliant businesses. It also touches on broader economic factors influencing the market, including AI, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ The 2024 U.S. election is a rematch between Trump and Biden, with significant implications for future domestic and foreign policies.
- 💼 AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience in investment banks, provides insights on market impacts.
- 📊 Historical data shows the stock market tends to be weaker in the first half of election years due to uncertainties around the election outcome.
- 📈 Despite the overall weaker performance, the stock market usually rebounds post-election, with yearly returns similar to non-election years.
- 📊 Current U.S. stock performance has seen a 10% increase since January, with high stock allocations almost at historical levels.
- ⚠️ The market may adjust before the next election due to the strong performance, making it unpredictable.
- 🌐 Multiple factors influence the stock market, including AI's impact on business, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, inflation, commodity prices, and geopolitical conflicts.
- 📊 Goldman Sachs has created an index reflecting stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win, which has performed well as his chances increase.
- 🛑 Trump's policies, such as easing oil company regulations and promoting 'Made in America' products, could benefit certain industries but harm others.
- 💼 Trump's tax cut policies and pro-business stance could benefit wealthy individuals and financial services companies.
- 🛑 Increased tariffs on imports, a key part of Trump's trade policy, may ultimately hurt the U.S. economy by raising prices and causing inflation.
- 🏭 Industries heavily reliant on imports or with high labor costs, such as consumer goods and hospitality, may suffer under Trump's policies.
Q & A
What is the significance of the 2024 U.S. election in terms of its candidates?
-The 2024 U.S. election is significant as it is the first time in 70 years that the same candidates, Trump and Biden, are running against each other in a rematch. Both candidates have previously served as U.S. Presidents, and they are also among the oldest to run for the office.
How does the U.S. stock market typically perform in election years compared to non-election years?
-According to the script, the U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P500 index, tends to be weaker in election years, especially in the first half of the year. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome and its potential impact on the market. However, after the election, the market usually rebounds, and the average return for the year is similar to non-election years.
What is the current performance of U.S. stocks as mentioned in the script?
-The script mentions that U.S. stocks have increased by 10% since January of the current year, with both institutional investors and individuals actively buying stocks, leading to an almost historically high stock allocation.
What factors, aside from the election, could impact the U.S. stock market?
-Factors that could impact the U.S. stock market, as outlined in the script, include the impacts of AI on business, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation trends as indicated by commodity prices, commercial real estate issues, and geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
How does the script suggest the stock market is forward-looking?
-The script suggests that the stock market is forward-looking by noting that stocks related to certain industries have already moved in anticipation of the potential election outcome. For example, stocks in industries expected to benefit from a Trump win have performed better as his chances of winning have increased.
What is the '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' mentioned in the script?
-The '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' is a basket of stocks created by Goldman Sachs that is expected to benefit if Trump wins the election. It includes stocks of companies that are likely to gain from Trump's policies and short positions on stocks expected to underperform.
Which industries are expected to benefit if Trump wins the election according to the script?
-Industries expected to benefit from a Trump win include oil companies, as he is likely to make it easier for them to obtain licenses and produce more fossil raw materials in the U.S. Other beneficiaries could be companies with production in the U.S., those planning to move operations back to the U.S., and financial services companies that may benefit from lower tax rates and reduced capital requirements for banks.
What are the potential negative impacts of Trump's trade policies as discussed in the script?
-The script discusses that Trump's trade policies, particularly increased tariffs on imported goods, could lead to a trade war, higher prices for consumers, inflation, and reduced business confidence. These policies could ultimately hurt the U.S. economy, especially low-income consumers, and companies that rely on imported goods or have high labor expense ratios.
How might Trump's labor market policies affect the U.S. economy according to the script?
-Trump's labor market policies, which aim to protect American jobs by making it harder for foreigners to work in the U.S. and by deporting illegal immigrants, could lead to a more understaffed labor market. This could result in higher labor costs, which might be passed on to consumers if companies have pricing power, or could negatively impact businesses that do not.
What is the potential impact on consumer industries if Trump's policies lead to higher production costs in the U.S.?
-If Trump's policies result in higher production costs due to increased tariffs and reduced access to cheap labor, consumer industries could face challenges. Companies with low margin profits may struggle to absorb these costs, and if they cannot pass on the increased costs to consumers, their business could suffer.
How can viewers find out more about companies that would benefit or suffer from Trump being president?
-Viewers can find more information about such companies by subscribing to the speaker's Patreon, where a free 7-day trial is mentioned, allowing them to access detailed insights after signing up.
Outlines
🗳️ U.S. Election Impact on Stock Market
The video script discusses the upcoming U.S. election featuring Trump vs. Biden, emphasizing the potential changes in domestic and foreign policies that could affect various industries and the stock market. It highlights the importance of being proactive rather than reactive to election outcomes, as the market is forward-looking. The presenter, AhJu, a seasoned investment banker, introduces the video's focus on how the election might impact the stock market. Historical data shows that stock markets tend to perform weaker in election years, especially in the first half, due to uncertainties surrounding the outcome. However, post-election, markets usually rebound as uncertainties are resolved. The script also notes the record age of the candidates and the unique nature of the rematch. The presenter suggests that while the election is a significant factor, other elements such as AI's impact on business, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, inflation, commodity prices, commercial real estate issues, and geopolitical conflicts also influence market trends.
📊 Election-Related Stock Market Predictions and Trade Policies
This paragraph delves into the specific industries and stocks that could be affected by the election results, particularly if Trump wins. It outlines the creation of a '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' by Goldman Sachs, which includes stocks expected to benefit from a Trump victory and those likely to underperform. The industries highlighted as potential winners include oil companies, U.S.-based manufacturers, and financial services firms that could benefit from Trump's pro-business policies and tax cuts. Conversely, the paragraph also discusses the potential negative impacts of Trump's trade policies, such as increased tariffs on imported goods, which could lead to higher prices, inflation, and reduced consumer purchasing power. The script questions the economic feasibility of protectionist trade policies and suggests that they could ultimately harm the U.S. economy, especially low-income consumers. It also touches on the labor market implications of stricter immigration policies and the potential for increased labor costs in certain industries.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡U.S. election
💡Domestic and foreign policy
💡Stock market
💡Investment banks
💡S&P500 index
💡Market adjustment
💡Inflation
💡Trade tariffs
💡Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
💡Forward-looking market
💡Patreon
Highlights
The U.S. election features a rematch between Trump and Biden, with potential significant impacts on domestic and foreign policy.
Market reactions to the election are forward-looking, making it crucial to pay attention before the results are announced.
AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience, shares insights on market and investment.
This election is unique as it's the first rematch in 70 years with both candidates having previously served as president.
Trump and Biden are among the oldest presidents in U.S. history, with ages of 81 and 78 respectively on election day.
Historical data shows the stock market tends to be weaker in the first half of election years due to uncertainty.
Post-election, the stock market usually rebounds as uncertainties are resolved.
U.S. stocks have seen a 10% increase since January, with stock allocation reaching historical highs.
Market adjustments before the election are possible despite good performance, influenced by various factors including the election.
Goldman Sachs has created an index tracking stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win and those likely to underperform.
Trump's policies are expected to favor oil companies, making it easier to obtain licenses for fossil fuel production.
Trump's 'Make America Great Again' slogan includes creating jobs in the U.S. and making American products more competitive through tariffs.
Trump's previous tax cut policy is set to expire, and re-election may see a push for further tax reductions for businesses.
Industries expected to suffer under a Trump presidency include those heavily reliant on imported goods due to potential increased tariffs.
Economic estimates suggest that increased tariffs by the U.S. could ultimately harm its own economy due to retaliatory measures.
Trump's labor policies aim to protect American jobs, potentially making the labor market more understaffed and driving up labor costs.
Companies with high labor expense ratios, such as restaurants and hotels, may suffer from increased labor costs.
For a deeper analysis of which companies would benefit or suffer from Trump's presidency, a Patreon subscription is offered.
Transcripts
This year’s U.S. election
is once again Trump vs. Biden
Whoever wins
will change the domestic and foreign policy
of the United States in future
Some policies will be good
for the stock market and some industries
Other policies will be very bad for them
Because the market is forward-looking
If you wait until the election results come out
to pay attention
it will be too late
So in today's video
we're going to look at
the impacts on the stock market
if Trump wins
If you are watching my video for the first time
AhJu is a professional investor who has been
working in investment banks for more than a decade
In this channel
I share my views on the market and investment
and also use my experience to share
some things that cannot be learned from books
If you are interested in making money
Let’s subscribe my channel
This year's U.S. election is special in many ways
First of all, this is the first time in 70 years
that the same candidates rematch
Second, both candidates have been
presidents of the United States
And thirdly
They are the two oldest American presidents in history
Trump was 70
and Biden was 78 when he became president
And on November 5 this year
when the U.S. election takes place
they will already be 81
and 78 years old
Compared with the previous US presidents
such as Obama
George W Bush
and Clinton
they were only in their 40s/ 50s
This is a little background on this election
Next, let’s see what impact the U.S. election
will have on the stock market
Here are 2 blue lines in this chart
The light blue one is
the average trend of the US S&P500 index
in years without presidential elections
The dark blue line is
the average trend when there is an election
What can we notice from this?
It’s just that in years with election
the stock market is usually weaker
Especially in the first half year
Because which candidate wins
can have a big impact on the stock market and stocks
Therefore, in the half year before the election
investors are worried about this
and thus the stock market is usually weaker
And you can see that the fluctuations are bigger
But after the election
those uncertainties are resolved
that is, it is known who won
and then the stock market rebounded
And at the end of the year
average return for the entire year
are almost back to levels seen in non-election years
The green line is the performance of
U.S. stocks this year
It has increased by 10% since January
As both the institutional investors and individuals
are rushing to buy stocks now
So far, stock allocation is almost the highest in history
But just because the performance is so good
So it would not be surprising at all
if the market adjusts before the next election
But it is difficult to predict the trend of the market
Because there are many factors affecting it
The election is just one of them
Additional factors include
impacts of AI on business
US Fed prepares to cut interest rates
inflation seems to be coming back
If you look at the prices of commodities
such as oil, copper and gold
they have risen sharply during this period
commercial real estate issues
and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
All of these will have an impact on the stock market
So the election is just one of them
Impacts of the election on the market
is harder to be observed
But much more obvious at the industry and stock level
Because in terms of policy direction
the two candidates are very different
if trump wins
it is helpful for some industries
But others will suffer
And because the stock market is forward-looking
So these stocks have moved
with the chance that Trump will win
US investment bank Goldman Sachs
has created a 2024 Republican policy pair index
That is basket of stocks that favoured to benefit
if Trump wins
and shorting of stocks expected to underperform
The performance of this index
has increased with Trump’s chances of winning
since March last year
Now according to gambling website
the market thinks Trump has a
higher chance of winning than Biden
The chance rate has changed significantly
from a year ago
In this index
What stocks are being held?
These are the industries that will benefit if Trump wins
For example, he will help oil companies
obtain licenses more easily
So more fossil raw materials can be produced in the United States
The second industry to benefit
Trump’s slogan is
Make America Great Again
How to make America greater again
Part of that is creating more jobs in America
Put taxes on products produced by others
Then the products produced in the US
will be more competitive
Therefore, companies with production in the US
Or companies that have announced that
they will move more of their operations back to the US
Such as Intel and Broadcom
These companies may benefit from
thirdly
Trump was a businessman before joining politics
and Republicans are generally pro-business
The last time when he was president
he signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Lowered tax rates for U.S. businesses
This policy
helps some wealthy people
and financial services companies
who like to put their assets in companies
his tax cut policy has almost expired
So if he is re-elected this time
one of his goals
is to lower the tax rate for U.S. companies
and reduce the capital that banks need to hold
so that they can lend more money
which will help U.S. companies and the entire economy
Who else can it help?
It's the American banks
And on the other side
which industries will suffer if Trump is president again?
Or in another way
Because the market already thinks Trump will win
these stocks have fallen a bit
So in theory they will bounce
if Trump doesn't win
So what industries and stocks are included in this?
Some policies
such as changing tax rates, are not so easy to implement
as the approval of Congress is required before passing
But for other policies
such as those related to trade
the US president has more ability to change them
And in terms of trade
Trump said that
10% tariff would be added to imported products
and if they come from China
they would be added even more tariffs
The last time he was president
he already added 25% on them
This time he said to increase tariffs by at least 60%
the reason why he did this
He explained that
firstly
These tariffs will reduce the U.S. trade deficit
which means they will help the U.S. make more money
and secondly
After he made the imported products more expensive
it will naturally make products
produced in the United States more competitive
But is it that simple
If you impose taxes on other people's products
will others delay the increase of taxes
on American products?
Of course yes
According to estimates from economists
at more than one investment bank
If the United States increases import tariffs
it will ultimately hurt its own economy
This conclusion should not be surprising
because the United States imports more than it exports
that is, it buys more things than it sells
Then if you raise tariffs
Others raise tariffs on you again
Who suffers more in the end?
Or think of it this way
Now everyone goes to the buffet
and the United States puts poison on every piece of food
to poison its enemies
but it is the hungriest one?
Who was hurt the most in the end?
That's Americans
Especially those with low incomes
Because these tariffs cause prices to rise
And its ratio to the expenditures of low-income people
is higher than that of high-income people
much higher
So the final impact is that things are more expensive
inflation is higher
and consumers are less capable
And the uncertainty about tariffs
makes people less confident of doing business
So overall it sounds good
“Put tariffs on foreign products”
“Put more tariffs on the enemy's products”
“All jobs will come back to the United States”
But this is not economically feasible
Those jobs can be returned to the United States
But what will happen in the end?
It’s just that things are expensive
Your minimum salary is USD$7
The minimum salary for others is RMB¥7
Then think about it
If I use an extreme example
to help to think of it
The United States increases tariffs to 1,000%
It sounds like punishing others
But the final effect is to stop all imports
Others fought back
Add 1000% tariff back to your goods
It’s just that you can’t sell anything to others anymore
All trade stopped
What will be the final result?
The United States could have imported
products made by others with low wages
like a toy
Originally it was made in China or Southeast Asia
and then shipped to the United States
because salaries are cheaper in Asia
So that toy only costs USD$5
But if in the future
If it can only be produced in the United States
and salaries in the US are many times more expensive
That toy will cost you USD$20 then
Think about how serious inflation this is
and how much impact it will have on consumers
Therefore, the margin profits of the consumer industry
are already low
There are also stocks that import Chinese products
such as Nike Skechers and Target
under pressure recently
because Trump’s chances of winning are getting higher
The second oneis related to the labor market
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve System
has increased interest rates by 5%
But the U.S. labor market is still strong
Latest labor data
such as Nonfarm Payroll
is always higher than economists’ expectations
It means that the supply of the labor market is very tight
that is, there is not enough manpower
And if Trump becomes president again
Because his policies want to protect American jobs
they will make it more difficult for foreigners to get approval
to work in the United States
and kick out illegal immigrants
This is a good thing for legal citizens of the US
because it will be easier for them to find jobs
But for the impact on the entire economy
it will make the labor market even more understaffed
And what will be the final impact?
labor is expensive when the company hires people
If the business is strong and it has pricing power
it can pass on the expensive labor to consumers
But if it does not have the pricing power
its business will suffer
Some companies will fail
So both outcomes are not good for the economy
The companies that will be affected in this regard
are those with high labor expense ratios
which means they need to hire a lot of people
such as restaurants and hotels
Their expenses will increase
If you want to know what other companies
would benefit or suffer from Trump being president
come to my Patreon
there is a free7 days trial now
You can leave anytime after reading this
That’s all for today’s updates
If you like this video
press like before leaving
see you next time
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