How Coronavirus Will Force Destinations to Stop Overtourism | Doug Lansky: reTHINKING TOURISM #4
Summary
TLDRこのビデオスクリプトは、観光の新しいモデルを模索しています。従来の観光モデルでは、多くの観光客が文化や環境に悪影響を及ぼし、地元住民の生活質も低下します。スクリーニングやソーシャルディスタンスが求められる現代において、過剰な観光は考え直されなければなりません。スクリプトでは、Appleの店舗のように「少なくとも」という考え方を取り入れて、観光地の持続可能性と収益性を高める方法を提案しています。観光客の数と観光地の収益は線形関係ではなく、最適な観光客数を見つけることが重要です。
Takeaways
- 🌍 旅行業界は、過剰な観光によって地域の文化や環境に悪影響を及ぼす可能性があると示唆しています。
- 🏙️ 都市やビーチが混雑すると、地元の生活や観光客の体験の質が低下するという問題が指摘されています。
- 📈 観光収益は線形であると考えられがちですが、実際には過剰な観光客が地域の収益にマイナス影響を与える可能性があることが述べられています。
- 🛍️ アップルストアのように、少ない商品で多くの販売を達成する「少なさは多いほど良い」という考え方が必要です。
- 📊 観光業は、多くの観光客が必ずしも多くの収益をもたらすとは限らないと示唆されています。
- 🏨 宿泊施設や航空業界のように、観光業には一定の容量制限があり、過剰な観光はその制限を超えると問題が生じる可能性があると述べられています。
- 📈 観光客の数と地域への支出の関係は、線形ではなく、ある程度の観光客数を超えると収益が減少する可能性があると主張されています。
- 🚫 観光業のステークホルダーは、観光客の増加が利益につながると考えがちですが、実際には地域全体の利益に反する可能性があると警告されています。
- 🤔 観光地は、観光客の数を制限することで、地元の生活の質や環境への影響を減らし、より良い観光体験を提供することができると提案されています。
- 🛑 コロナ禍で導入された人出制限は、観光地の持続可能性と利益性のためにも良い機会であると示唆されています。
- 📝 観光地は、観光客の適正な数を特定し、その数に基づいて観光客を管理することで、最適な観光モデルを見つける必要があると結び付けています。
Q & A
旅行業界における「新しいモデル」とは何を指していますか?
-「新しいモデル」とは、過剰な観光客の混雑を避け、地元の生活や環境、訪れた人々の体験を守るための観光モデルを指しています。これは、Appleストアのように、少ない商品で多くの売上を上げることを実現する「少なさは多いほど良い」という考え方です。
なぜ観光地は観光客の数と観光支出の線形関係を前提に考えてきたのですか?
-それは、ファストフードチェーンやホテル、航空会社、ディズニーランドなど、多くのビジネスモデルが「多くの訪問者=多くの収益」という線形関係にあるからです。しかし、観光地全体ではこの考え方が通用しないことが多いです。
観光地の過剰な観光客増加がもたらす問題とは何ですか?
-観光地の過剰な観光客増加は、市中心やビーチの混雑、地元文化や自然への影響、環境への悪影響、地元の生活の質の低下を引き起こす可能性があります。
1980年代以来、国際旅行者の数がどのように変化しましたか?
-1980年代には約3億人の国際旅行者がおり、現在では15億人に達しました。これは40年間にわたって500%増加しています。
アイスランドの観光業の成長率は何パーセント増で、どのくらいの期間にわたっていますか?
-アイスランドの観光業は7年間で400%増加しています。
観光地が混雑することで失う可能性があるものは何ですか?
-観光地が混雑することで、高消費層の観光客が不快に感じて他の場所を選んだり、新型コロナウイルスの心配から遠くの場所を選ぶ可能性があります。
観光地が受け入れる観光客の数を制限することの利点は何ですか?
-観光客の数を制限することは、地元の生活の質を向上させ、文化への影響を軽減し、環境に良い影響を与え、訪れた人々の体験を向上させ、観光地の需要を高め、シーズンオフの利用を促進し、収益を増加させる可能性があります。
観光地のビジネスモデルとそのステークホルダーのビジネスモデルどうして対立するのですか?
-観光地のビジネスモデルは、多くの観光客がもたらす混雑や環境への悪影響を避けることが目的ですが、航空会社やホテル、ツアー、レストラン、テーマパークなどのステークホルダーは、多くの観光客がもたらす利益を追求しています。
観光地の持続可能性を高めるために、どのような措置が提案されていますか?
-観光地は、観光客の数を制限するスマートな方法を見つけ、キャリーングキャパシティの評価や環境評価を行い、良い影響を与える訪問者数を特定する必要があります。また、観光地管理組織を設立し、訪問者数を制限することも提案されています。
観光地のDMO(目的地マーケティング組織)はなぜ多くの観光客を引き込むことに力を入れてきましたか?
-DMOは、政治的な上司からの圧力や観光税収益の増加に応じて、多くの観光客を引き込むことで自分たちの効果を証明しようとしています。しかし、これは観光地全体の持続可能性と対立することがあります。
新型コロナウイルスが提供する機会とは何ですか?
-新型コロナウイルスが提供する機会は、公衆衛生の名前の下で混雑を制限したり、訪問者制限を設けることが政治的に可能になったことです。これにより、観光地の持続可能性や利益性にも良い副作用が生まれます。
Outlines
🌏 観光モデルの変革
この段落では、従来の観光モデルの限界と新しいアプローチの必要性が議論されています。観光は過剰に成長し、地元の生活や訪れた客の体験に悪影響を及ぼしていると指摘。Appleストアのように「少なさは多い」という哲学を取り入れるべきで、観光地も最適な「甘いポイント」を見つける必要があると主張しています。また、観光支出が線形であるという従来の考え方と、実際には観光地の容量に制限があり、多くの訪問者が増えると体験の質が低下するという現実について触れています。
📉 観光客数の増加と収益の関係
第二段落では、観光客数の増加が必ずしも収益の増加につながるとされている誤解に挑み、実際には逆に目的地の魅力が失われ、長期的な収益に悪影響を及ぼすことがあると警告しています。低支出の観光客を排除することで、目的地の体験やサービスの質が向上し、滞在客が増えることで平均支出が向上するという仮説を示しています。また、観光の持続可能性と環境への影響にも配慮しながら、最適な観光客数を見つけることが目的地の重要性について述べています。
🛑 観光の過剰化と対策
第三段落では、観光の過剰化とそれに伴う問題、特に現地の生活や環境への影響について触れています。また、観光地が観光客数を制限することで得られる利益、例えば地元の生活の質の向上や環境への影響の軽減、観光客の経験の向上などが説明されています。さらに、観光地のビジネスモデルとステークホルダーの利益との間の対立、政治的意志の欠如、そしてコロナ禍を通じて得られる機会についても議論されています。最後に、観光地管理組織の設立、訪問者数の適正な管理、そして観光地の持続可能性を高めるための具体的な対策が提案されています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡観光
💡ソーシャルディスタンス
💡Appleストア
💡観光収益
💡過剰観光
💡地元の生活の質
💡環境への影響
💡観光客の質
💡観光地の限界
💡観光地のマーケティング
💡観光地の管理
Highlights
The need for a better model for tourism in the age of social distancing.
Apple's sales strategy of 'less is more' as a potential model for sustainable tourism.
The misconception of linear tourism spending and its impact on overcrowding.
The limitations of synthetic experiences in tourism compared to authentic cultural and natural ones.
The exponential growth of international travelers and its effects on destinations.
The case of Iceland's rapid tourism growth and its consequences.
The potential for destinations to have more visitors but make less revenue.
The importance of avoiding mass tourism crowds for a better visitor experience.
The economic impact of overcrowding on a destination's revenue.
The concept of finding the 'sweet spot' in tourism for optimal visitor experience and revenue.
The difference in business models between stakeholders and the overall destination.
The role of destination marketing organizations (DMOs) in promoting tourism.
The challenge of balancing short-term profits with long-term destination sustainability.
The opportunity presented by the coronavirus to reassess tourism strategies.
The proposal to create a destination management organization separate from marketing.
The importance of conducting carrying capacity and environmental assessments for tourism.
The concept of diminishing returns in tourism and finding the optimal visitor number.
Transcripts
[Music]
let's not forget the travel used to look
like this
destinations weren't just addicted to
tourism they always wanted just a little
bit more not only is the aura crowding
unpleasant for both locals and visitors
now there's a new twist in this age of
social distancing such crowds seem
unthinkable clearly we need a better
model for tourism there's a reason the
Apple store looks like this and not like
this it's open and sleek and there
aren't many products yet they have more
sales per square meter than any other
retailer they have plenty of space for
more products but they realized that
less is more they found that sweet spot
and tourism needs to find its sweet spot
as well here's what I mean by that
conventional wisdom says that tourism
spending is linear that means if one
tourist spends $100 to tourist gets you
203 tourists you get the idea but let's
put spending on the x-axis and the
number of visitors on the y-axis as one
goes up so does the other we've been
thinking this way because this is
exactly how it works at fast food chains
at hotels on airplanes at Disney more
visitors equals more money but there are
two important distinctions one these are
synthetic experiences there's no
authentic culture or nature that gets
destroyed and two they all have limits
restaurants have a certain number of
seats or there's a building limit set by
the fire department hotels don't knock
at 3:00 a.m. and put extra people in
your hotel room and airlines don't seat
extra passengers on your lap when you
fly
even Disney closes its gates when it
hits maximum capacity so they carefully
protect the experience they offer to
prevent overcrowding but this thinking
simply doesn't cross over to entire
destinations with tourism when you add
more people the city centers and beaches
get crowded the authenticity visitor
experience local life quality and
environment all go down and for decades
we failed to place a real value on those
things and for decades it's gone down in
1980 there were about 300 million
international travelers now we've hit
1.5 billion that's a 500% increase in 40
years and some places are growing even
faster
Iceland's tourism grew 400% in seven
years sometimes it can happen overnight
with the publication of an article or a
hit movie after the Swiss restaurant
appeared on the cover of a book it got
so inundated with tourists that it shut
down for years take a moment and imagine
if your destination suddenly got an
extra five million visitors next year
chances are you don't have a single
policy in place to keep that from
happening sure you might say there
aren't enough hotel rooms but if there's
a big enough demand
Airbnb rooms will pop up and tour buses
will start dropping people off it may
not be 5 million but certainly enough to
overwhelm your city and as Corona lifts
an international travel is slow to
resume a swarm of domestic travel is
likely to engulf many places this year
as the destination gets crowded you're
more discerning customers are gonna go
someplace else either because it's
unpleasant or because of social
distancing when I go back I don't want
to stand in line I don't want to be in a
crowd so I'm going to look for places
where you know what I'm going to enjoy
it the way it was meant to be enjoyed
and if I have to pay a little more to do
it I'll be happy to write that check now
let me be clear this isn't an elitist
thing it's not about just trying to
attract only rich customers it's about
their spending Bill Gates might visit
but if he shows up on a tour with a
guide and gets out of his car for only
two hours he may not spend a thing
I'm talking about the economic impact on
the destination and if a destination
lets in too many people it can have a
negative impact on revenue yeah well
last summer me and my family did a road
trip through Croatia and Montenegro and
basically if we saw a cruise ship in
port we just kept going didn't stop it's
it's just not worth fighting the massive
crowds that sort of pile into these
ancient medieval cities I mean well I
mean we're not high rollers but you know
we were there for a week and we would
like eating and restaurants staying in
hotels doing activities so you heard
both Peters say they would avoid places
that get mass tourism crowds they're not
alone many people feel this way and many
more will when they're worried about a
virus can a destination actually have
more visitors but make less money yes
that's exactly what I'm saying you're
definitely on to something here more
visitors do not guarantee more revenue
when a place gets crowded there will
always be bottom feeders who will set up
little stands and cell imported fridge
magnets to day visitors but that doesn't
mean the destination is earning more
money let's take a look at how this can
affect total spending with this purely
hypothetical example now let's say we
limit visitors by 30 percent but we just
limit the low spenders by restricting
say tour buses again not poor people I'm
just talking about day visitors who
aren't spending much so it keeps the
destination more authentic keeps the
service and experience high and attracts
overnight guests this will increase the
average amount each visitor spends so
this hypothetical model without low
spenders could look like this
the specific numbers here aren't real
but the concept is there are seven big
wins better life quality for locals
lower impact on the culture better for
the environment better experience for
the visitors and limiting access creates
a higher demand for the destination
which is great PR and will likely spread
visitors into the shoulder and off peak
seasons plus potentially more revenue
which also means it's not linear the
spending visitor curve would look more
like this with diminishing returns or
even a negative Bend
so here's max revenue there will be some
number of visitors where the local
quality of life starts to suffer there's
another point when environmental damage
begins to increase let's say that here
is where the authenticity diminishes and
finally here's where that combo of
crowds eco damage and lost authenticity
starts to deter higher average spending
the basic idea is not new by the way
Stanley plog made a very similar graph
about tourism decline in 1967 and the
European Commission paid for this report
what are the main things that brings
down tourism is too many tourists so if
a destination can make a smart
calculation with those things and find a
smart way to limit visitors they will
hit that sweet spot it all seems so
obvious right so why aren't destinations
doing it because within a destination
over here you have stakeholders like
airlines hotels tours restaurants theme
parks that have successful linear
business models where more tourists
equals more money and over here you've
got the destination as a whole that has
a bell curve or at least diminishing
returns and that puts the destinations
business model at odds with its own
stakeholders surely you can't be serious
I am serious and don't call me Shirley
over here if they're full they don't
ruin the experience for their guests
they just add more flights build more
hotels and add more restaurants if the
crowds annoy and scare off the high
spenders well below budget and budget
travelers take over
the stakeholders diversify by adding
budget airlines budget hotels and cheap
souvenirs over here they see the big
picture they see that it has essentially
become a race to the bottom so with
these two forces how does it play out
here in the middle there's the DMO or
destination marketing organization that
government organization that promotes
tourism and pays for ads when the key
stakeholders want to grow they put
pressure on the DMO to spend more to
attract more visitors and the DMO is
often getting bonuses or praised by
their political bosses for attracting
more visitors and showing that the tax
money they're spending is really
effective because the political bosses
still think that tourism revenue is
linear in part because many get their
tourism tax revenue from hotels which
are linear so the DMO has been siding
with the Linear's and that's why we've
got so much overcrowding or over tourism
or as I prefer to call it unbalanced
tourism I feel bad for demos they're
often trapped in the middle it's
politicians you need to understand
tourism better and I think that if they
did they'd often take different
decisions one of the big problems with
over tourism is that it rarely looks
like this so most cities don't think
they have it
the media's use of huge crowd photos has
made it tricky to self-diagnose it's
like when they show what lungs look like
after smoking for 30 years but this
patient also has lung cancer all it
takes is one bottleneck or some
temporary congestion too few parking
spots for cars or buses or too many
people on the walking street a few weeks
of the year a line outside the popular
museum during peak season things that
can be fixed with proper management and
as with cancer the sooner you catch it
the better the industry has known for
some time the negative side effects I
mentioned are more important for its
long-term success than supporting the
short-term profits of the Linear's
but they lacked the political will to
make some tough decisions
the coronavirus provides that
opportunity the ability to limit
crowds or make visitor restrictions is
now politically possible because it's
done in the name of public health the
fact that it's also good for the
destination sustainability and
profitability is a nice side effect
because the capacity is being restricted
even more it's important that they do
things in a smart way so what should
they do
one show the linear stakeholders how
this benefits them long-term
then if the beaches and forests are
polluted and overcrowded or there's not
enough room for social distancing guests
will go someplace else that these things
aren't just a turn-off for visitors but
for locals and that as many locals move
away those stakeholders will have a
challenge finding high quality employees
to create a destination management
organization one that is separated from
the marketing department by a firewall a
real firewall not just the same people
with an extra role it needs to be
treated like the separation between
church and state or advertising and
editorial you can't have the same people
who are getting bonuses for bringing
more tourists also be in charge of
limiting them so this decision needs to
happen at the Tourism Minister level of
government and the good news is that
there is a precedent for it Barcelona
has its tourism marketing offices here
and its management offices over here
three use that new organization to find
that sweet spot and regain control
remember a destination can have tourists
but the tourists shouldn't have the
destination destination kind of tours to
conduct a carrying capacity assessment
and an environmental assessment and
figure out what those actual curve
levels are in your destination how many
visitors can you handle in a good way
before those things have a negative
impact and if you need help figuring
this out
call me actually email works better
[Music]
okay I know I said last week that I was
gonna talk about limiting cruise ship
passengers and that was my intention but
then I realized I needed to explain this
bit first
next week I'll get into the details of
who to limit and how
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