Cenário Macro: onde investir em 2026

Summary

In this video, Álvaro Fraçon, macro strategist at BTG Pactual, provides an insightful overview of Brazil's 2026 macroeconomic landscape. He discusses key global and local factors affecting markets, including geopolitical risks, gold prices, and capital flows to emerging economies. Fraçon highlights the Brazilian real's performance, the trajectory of the SELIC rate amid economic slowdown, and inflation expectations around 4%, driven by service prices. He also emphasizes the influence of the political cycle on market volatility, particularly in an election year. The video concludes by encouraging viewers to explore the full 'Onde Investir em 2026' report for a comprehensive investment outlook.

Takeaways

• 😀 Geopolitical risks, such as global tensions, will continue to impact asset prices and portfolios in 2026.
• 😀 The appreciation of gold is a notable trend, often signaling capital flow away from emerging markets, though 2026 is seeing the opposite with strong capital inflows into Latin American economies.
• 😀 The Brazilian Real is expected to appreciate in early 2026, alongside strong returns in the stock market.
• 😀 The main macroeconomic theme for Brazil in 2026 is the performance of the DXY (US Dollar Index), which is not expected to depreciate significantly, unlike in 2025, causing greater volatility in the market.
• 😀 The Brazilian interest rate (Selic) is expected to remain volatile throughout the year, with predictions ranging from 12% to 13% depending on the economic slowdown and labor market dynamics.
• 😀 Brazil's economic growth is projected to slow down in 2026, with GDP growth expected to be around 1.7% to 2%, much lower than previous years but still above its potential growth rate.
• 😀 Inflation in Brazil is expected to be around 4% for 2026, with a notable decrease in industrial goods and food prices due to the appreciation of the Real.
• 😀 Service prices in Brazil are expected to remain high, which will continue to affect the core inflation and the broader economy, particularly the labor market.
• 😀 The Brazilian Central Bank's monetary policy will be heavily influenced by the inflation rate of services, as this component is key to controlling overall inflation.
• 😀 The upcoming Brazilian election adds political uncertainty, which could result in increased volatility. The outcome of the elections will impact investment strategies and portfolio diversification.

Q & A

What are the key risks influencing the global financial market in 2026?

The primary risk factors are geopolitical risks, which have escalated since the end of the previous year and continue into 2026. These risks have impacted global financial markets, especially the appreciation of gold, which has seen strong price increases.

How are geopolitical risks affecting emerging markets in 2026?

Despite the appreciation of gold due to geopolitical tensions, emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, have seen strong capital inflows. This is unusual, as typically, gold price increases lead to capital outflows from emerging economies.

What is the impact of the appreciation of the Brazilian real in early 2026?

The Brazilian real appreciated in early 2026, largely driven by favorable market conditions and capital inflows into Latin American economies. This has had a positive impact on the Brazilian stock market, with strong returns.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) expected to behave in 2026, and how will this affect Brazil?

Unlike 2025, where the DXY saw significant depreciation, the DXY is not expected to experience the same trend in 2026. This means the Brazilian real won't appreciate significantly due to dollar movements, and volatility in global markets may persist due to geopolitical tensions.

What are the main economic challenges for Brazil in 2026?

The key challenge for Brazil in 2026 lies in managing the monetary policy cycle. The interest rate (Selic) is expected to remain high initially, with uncertainty around whether it will decrease to 12%, 11%, or 13% by year-end, depending on the strength of the economic slowdown.

How is Brazil's economic growth projected for 2026?

Brazil's GDP growth for 2026 is expected to range between 1.7% and 2%. While this is above the country's potential growth, it is much lower compared to the 3% growth observed in recent years.

What is the projected inflation rate for Brazil in 2026?

Inflation in Brazil, as measured by the IPCA, is expected to be around 4% in 2026. The appreciation of the Brazilian real is expected to lower prices for industrial goods and food at home, though services prices will remain high.

Why are service prices crucial for Brazil's inflation outlook in 2026?

Service prices are a critical component of the core inflation in Brazil, and without a slowdown in service costs, there cannot be a significant reduction in overall inflation. This also directly affects the central bank's ability to reduce interest rates.

How will the labor market in Brazil respond to high interest rates in 2026?

The labor market in Brazil is expected to slow down due to high interest rates. This slowdown is part of the broader economic deceleration, affecting cyclical sectors sensitive to interest rates.

What role does the political situation in Brazil play in the country's macroeconomic outlook in 2026?

Brazil's political environment, particularly during election years, introduces uncertainty, which leads to increased market volatility. The outcome of elections and the intentions of the candidates could significantly influence market expectations and investment strategies.