Australia 7 Day + Tropical Cyclone KIRRILY for Queensland

Summary

Meteorologist Philip Danin provides a 7-day weather outlook for Australia, focusing on an developing storm system near the Coral Sea that is forecast to impact the region around Townsville by late Thursday or early Friday. He notes uncertainty around exact timing and intensity as the storm continues to organize and has not yet been officially named by the Bureau of Meteorology. After detailing the storm's projected path, Danin covers forecasts for other major Australian cities like Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth, noting a cooler change coming for southern areas while northern regions remain hot. He concludes by mentioning a brief update will be provided Thursday once the storm is named.

Takeaways

• 😀 The developing storm hasn't been officially named yet by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as of Wednesday morning
• 🌧️ The storm is still deepening as it moves towards the northeast Australian coastline near Townsville
• 💨 Models predict the storm making landfall between Townsville and Bowen late Thursday or early Friday
• 🌀 The storm could still be intensifying right up until landfall making forecasts complicated
• ⛈️ Heavy rain and winds expected from Innisfail down to Port Macquarie as the storm moves inland
• ☀️ Hot temperatures forecast for southeast Australia over the next week with Adelaide and Hobart seeing coolest days on Friday
• 🌦️ Leftover moisture from the storm will cause ongoing showers and thunderstorms early next week
• 🚨 The Bureau of Meteorology remains the official source for storm warnings and forecasts in Queensland
• 🌧️ Not as much widespread rain expected from this storm compared to Cyclone Jasper which stalled inland
• 🔄 We'll provide another update on the potential cyclone's status and forecasts on Thursday

Q & A

What is the status of the developing storm in the Coral Sea as of the morning of February 8th?

As of the morning of February 8th, the storm had not yet been officially named by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, even though it was still deepening as it moved towards the coastline.

Why don't weather forecasters name a storm until it has officially formed?

Forecasters don't name a storm before it has officially formed because another low might rapidly form before it and take the name first. The rules state that you have to wait until the storm is actually formed to name it.

Where and when is the storm expected to make landfall?

The storm is expected to make landfall sometime between Thursday evening and Friday morning around the Townsville to Bowen area, between Townsville and Airlie Beach.

What effects might the storm have as it approaches the coast?

As the storm approaches the coast, it could bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and storm surge between Townsville and Bowen. However, if it moves inland quickly, impacts may be reduced.

How much rainfall is forecast from the storm?

The forecast rainfall from the cyclone is around 150-300mm near the coast between Townsville and Airlie Beach, with isolated higher totals possible. Further inland, thunderstorms could produce 50-100mm.

What temperatures are expected in major cities over the next week?

Temperatures will vary across Australia. Adelaide and Melbourne will be coolest on Friday, around 20C. Sydney and Newcastle will peak around 34-40C on Friday. Brisbane will be around 31C. Perth will reach 32C on Saturday.

What is the outlook for Darwin over the next few days?

Darwin can expect temperatures around 28C with thunderstorms likely for the next 4-5 days.

What is the expected movement of the cyclone remnants early next week?

The remnants of the cyclone are forecast to drift west and southwest, moving into central Australia and bringing rain to Alice Springs by Tuesday.

Will there be impacts from the cyclone farther south along the east coast?

Yes, the moist tropical air dragged southwards behind the cyclone will lead to muggy, humid conditions extending at least as far south as Port Macquarie by early next week.

What areas are likely to receive heavy rainfall from thunderstorms?

Heavy thunderstorm rainfall is possible from Tom Price to Calgoorlie early next week. Darwin and northern Northern Territory will also see showers and storms.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Describing the upcoming cyclone and its current status

The paragraph introduces the upcoming cyclone in the Coral Sea that is deepening and moving towards the Queensland coast, likely making landfall between Townsville and Bowen by Thursday evening or Friday morning. Though not officially named yet, it is expected to be named soon. The cyclone's current status, location, projected path and potential impacts are discussed.

05:01

😀 Forecasting temperatures and weather conditions around Australia

The paragraph provides a forecast of temperatures and weather conditions around major Australian cities over the next 7 days. Cooling changes are highlighted for Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra on Friday. Hottest days of the week are noted for Sydney and Perth on Friday and Saturday respectively. Rain and cloudier conditions are expected for Brisbane and Darwin.

Keywords

💡cyclone

A cyclone is a rotating storm system with strong winds and heavy rain. The video discusses an developing cyclone near Australia that may make landfall and cause damage. The cyclone is referred to throughout the video as it tracks towards the coast.

💡storm surge

A storm surge is a rise in sea level caused by a storm's winds pushing water onshore. The video mentions storm surge as one of the hazards that could occur if the cyclone makes landfall.

💡Townsville

Townsville is a coastal city in Queensland, Australia. The video forecasts the cyclone may make landfall near Townsville, so the city is mentioned several times as being in the potential impact zone.

💡rainfall

Heavy rainfall often accompanies cyclones and can cause flooding. The video shows forecast rainfall maps, highlighting areas expected to receive significant rainfall from the cyclone.

💡landfall

Landfall is when the center of a tropical cyclone first crosses over land. The video discusses uncertainty around exactly when and where the cyclone will make landfall along the Queensland coast.

💡forecast

A forecast predicts future weather conditions. The video provides a 7-day weather forecast for Australia, focusing especially on the potential cyclone's track and impacts.

💡warnings

Warnings alert people to dangerous weather conditions. The video advises viewers to follow official warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology regarding the cyclone.

💡models

Weather models use data and physics to predict the atmosphere's behavior. The video notes differences between models in the cyclone's expected timing and track.

💡deepening

When a cyclone deepens, its central pressure decreases, indicating strengthening. The video says forecast uncertainty stems partly from the cyclone deepening as it approaches land.

💡coastline

The coastline is where land meets the sea. The video repeatedly references the coastline in Queensland where impacts are expected as the cyclone approaches.

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Transcripts

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hello I'm Philip danin from weather

watch TV on YouTube thank you for

joining us we have our Australia only

7-Day Outlook we've brought it Forward

one day this week because of the

developing storm out there in the Coral

Sea now uh at the time of recording this

which was on Wednesday morning it still

hadn't been named officially by the

Bureau of meteorology I know many of you

know what the name will be but weather

forecasters don't typically mention the

name or at least talk about it regularly

until it is officially named and formed

and that at this stage hadn't yet

happened um you might be seeing it in

news stories it's logical if you can see

what the next name is on the list but

the reason why forecasters don't name a

storm before it's formed is because

another low might rapidly form before it

and steal that name first so you have to

wait technically until the storm is

formed now that could be later today uh

but it certainly is taking its time the

Americans have already said it's a

cyclone the Australian Bureau of

meteorology at this stage hadn't yet

named it but it's deepening still as it

moves on in towards the coastline other

lows here and another uh former Cyclone

out there to see or falling apart at

least so let's have a closer look at

this system it is still deepening it is

really taking longer than we thought we

were expecting it to be named by Monday

here we are 2 days later and it's still

not officially into that status not at

least when we recorded this uh which was

around about um 7:8 in the morning if

you live in Sydney or Brisbane so the

storm is deepening it is still tracking

in towards Townsville probably just

south of Townsville and north of maai so

we'll show you that in a split second uh

the closer version of it but let's get

through the usual forecast so here we

are on Thursday the storm up here coming

in towards Townsville but uh some other

places of interest because of this the

red line right that measures air

thickness so north of that red line hot

tropical humid weather uh maybe a bit

drier the further Inland you are but

certainly it is a hot air flow so that

means places like Cambra who I didn't

mention last week sorry 31° coming

through for you on Thursday that'll be

your hottest day of the next seven but

uh next Tuesday you'll also be getting

up to that might be a little bit cloudy

for you Darwin 28° thunderstorms coming

through for you for the next four or 5

days ahead and back to sort of into the

New South Wales area uh Duo 38 to 40° or

so for Thursday but you'll be dropping

down to 32° by the time we get uh into

the weekend so let's have a closer look

at the storm here we are at 10:00 in the

morning that is uh Brisbane time or

Queensland time it's uh the timing of it

will be moving around a bit mostly

because as the storm moves in it is

still deepening in fact it might be

deepening right up until it makes

landfall that makes it a little bit

complicated because the storm's sort of

growing as it moves in but the air

pressure here not too bad at 988 but it

is dropping quite quickly as it moves

further in so the map we've got here we'

we've put up here Thursday p.m Friday

a.m. because the different models are

still qu struggling with the timing of

it they're all pretty much in alignment

of where it comes in but the timing of

it does change some have it coming In by

Thursday evening others have it by

Friday morning so either way it is

coming into that area 965 it says there

it looks as though air will be probably

the main area that it comes into but

it's certainly between Townsville and

Bowen I would say are the two sort of

main centers where this is likely to be

coming in between but anywhere from inam

all the way down really off the screen

here are still in that risk Zone mostly

because heavy rain will be sliding down

the coastline there but the heaviest

rain on the map here for now is in that

zone Zone and then we fast forward

through till 10:00 Friday morning

Queensland time now some models still

have it up here closer to air in

Townsville but as you can see here much

further Inland falling apart and

probably not too damaging at this point

although the rain might be very welcome

but the winds might still be a little

bit of a problem uh circling around that

system there so that's the big picture

uh of it or the closer picture of it I

should say here is the big picture of it

on Friday wellin land so lunchtime it's

already in land we hope that will really

minimize rainfall in those coastal areas

and it minimizes storm damage uh and

storm surge as well so like I say it

could still be deepening when it comes

in this is not locked in please follow

the Bureau of meteorology they are the

official source for warnings here in

Queensland let's get back to the rest of

the country now it's actually a colder

change coming in down here for you guys

in the Southeast Adelaide 22° your

coldest day of the next s days it'll be

the same on Saturday as well it's going

to be a bit cloudy for you Hobart 18°

for you and same temperature on Saturday

as well so certainly cooler CRA 25° as

that change comes through but just a

little further north in Sydney your

hottest day of the week coming up so

like I say Adelaide Hobart Cambra your

coolest day of the next seven days is on

Friday here but for Sydney you're going

to be somewhere between 34 and 37° a

little bit windy around the coastline

and further up around Newcastle 39 or

40° for you your hottest day of the week

coming up windy uh easterly is blowing

through here from Perth to Geraldton um

fading out kind of the further north you

go into Saturday now and Melbourne your

coolest day of the next week ahead 20°

for you that's nothing too big um

Brisbane showers for you now the the

showery weather will be off and on

around Brisbane there's nothing too

dramatic in there really it's more of a

risk of a shower 31° and certainly muggy

humid weather there for you on the other

side not muggy but Perth you have your

hottest day of the next s days coming

through for you on Saturday you'll be

about 32° you'll match that again

Tuesday of next week and Alice Springs

because of the southeasterly flow it'll

be uh 34° for you that's uh that's down

by several degrees and you got the

leftover Cyclone not far away from you

although it is a distance but you can

certainly see it's moving further in

land right let's go through to sunnd

the storm kind of stops it's not a storm

anymore it's an X Cyclone uh but it's

basically stopped here and now you're

seeing thunderstorms down to places like

charlieville and Brisbane that humid

weather dragged down by it you'll be

noticing it from rockampton southwards

in fact you'll be noticing it all the

way down to about Port mcari as a result

of that low coming down and just

dragging in that humid weather for you

Sunday not a lot of news around but

Adelaide your hottest day of the week

32° mostly sunny uh Perth 27° for you um

with a mixture of air flows you got sort

of a norwester on this side and a

southwester over here so there might be

even the chance of a couple of showers

especially closer to that area of low

pressure next week messy kind of stuff

around Queensland now because of the

leftovers of the cyclone and these sort

of thunderstorms that are bubbling up

down to about the New South Wales border

but certainly that red line dropping

again the heat on Monday pushing further

down across the country

Melbourne your hottest day of the week

will be on Monday 29 or 30° for you and

Tasmania we haven't forgotten about you

you warm up uh as we go through Monday

25° is your top temperature there in

Hobart and I think a couple other places

might go a degree or two warmer and then

into Tuesday of next week the leftovers

now actually are coming into Alis

Springs The Leftovers of the Cyclone we

did think at first it might turn around

and come back out again but the big high

out here in the tasmine sea kind of

stopping that from happening so probably

good news that you've got some rain and

showers up here that'll be good for

those who do need it um and it fills up

some of the rivers and streams that are

dry elsewhere more thunderstorms around

Tuesday next week it does get hotter

around much of Australia here is the

rainfall let's start with the Cyclone

not a huge amount not as much as we were

saying was potential yesterday looks as

though it's going to move through at a

good speed and that's different to

Jasper Jasper was very slow and then it

just sort of fell apart with all that

tropical rain so we're seeing here out

out to sea 300 mm over Townsville

dropping down to 150 to 200 mm

Townsville to air that is and then it

goes Inland and then you got the

thunderstorms around here that's sort of

in the 50 to 100 mm Mark um the purple

areas or the 100 mm areas and then

pretty much elsewhere not a lot of rain

in this Zone pretty dry mostly dry in

Perth if not completely dry for you

heavy thunderstorms along here uh next

to Tom price down to calgi and then

further up obviously as I said before

Darwin over towards about broom plenty

of showers around mostly though up

towards the Northern Territories there

we go lot to cover today now tomorrow

Thursday we'll do a special brief update

on the Cyclone it should be named by

then officially and we can finally say

it out loud um and if it is named we

will change that on the YouTube video

for you today as well thanks very much

for joining us we'll catch you again

tomorrow Thursday with our next update

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