Kemenkeu: Konflik Global Sebabkan Ekonomi Stagnan

Summary

The transcript discusses Indonesia's economic challenges and strategies for growth, focusing on the importance of overcoming the middle-income trap and achieving higher economic growth, aiming for above 6% annually. It addresses global geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and their impact on Indonesia's economic resilience. The speech highlights fiscal policy strategies, including reforms, infrastructure, and human resource development to ensure sustainable growth. The event also touches on Indonesia's path to becoming a developed nation by 2045, with emphasis on innovation, social equity, and improving public services, alongside the government's economic and fiscal policy plans.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia aims to break free from the middle-income trap and achieve economic growth above 6% annually to become a developed nation by 2045.
• 😀 Global economic tensions, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have disrupted global supply chains and worsened geo-economic fragmentation.
• 😀 Despite global challenges, Indonesia's economy has shown resilience with 5.05% growth in Q2 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and improved exports.
• 😀 Inflation in Indonesia remains under control, with the annual rate at 1.84% in September 2024, well within target range.
• 😀 Indonesia's unemployment rate stands at 4.82%, lower than pre-pandemic levels, and poverty has reduced from 9.36% in March 2023 to 9.03% in March 2024.
• 😀 The government plans to continue structural reforms and implement policies to achieve high, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.
• 😀 Fiscal policy for 2025 will include programs to strengthen human capital, green economic transformation, infrastructure development, and regional equity.
• 😀 Key initiatives for 2025 include free meals for pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers, and students, alongside expanded healthcare and national food reserves.
• 😀 The 2025 Budget (APBN) focuses on fiscal sustainability, balancing between economic development and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• 😀 The government aims to enhance tax compliance and reform the tax system to expand the tax base and support economic transformation.

Q & A

What is the main purpose of the event discussed in the transcript?

The event aims to discuss Indonesia's economic strategies, challenges, and potential growth, particularly focusing on achieving economic transformation and escaping the middle-income trap. The event also emphasizes the need for new sources of economic growth and structural reforms.

What are the key global economic challenges mentioned in the script?

The key global economic challenges include geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, disruptions to global supply chains, trade conflicts, high inflation in the service sector, and the ongoing fragmentation of the global economy, all of which contribute to slow global growth.

What is the projected global economic growth for 2025 according to the IMF?

The IMF projects global economic growth to be around 3.3% in 2025.

What is the current unemployment rate in Indonesia as per the script?

As of February 2024, Indonesia's unemployment rate stands at 4.82%, which is lower than pre-pandemic levels.

How has Indonesia's poverty rate changed from last year to this year?

Indonesia's poverty rate has decreased from 9.36% in March of the previous year to 9.03% in the current year, showing a gradual improvement.

What is the target for Indonesia's economic growth to escape the middle-income trap?

Indonesia needs to achieve annual economic growth rates of over 6% to escape the middle-income trap and meet its goal of becoming a developed country by 2045.

What does the fiscal policy strategy for 2025 focus on?

The fiscal policy strategy for 2025 focuses on medium-term structural reforms, including improving human resources, industrialization, green economic transformation, and infrastructure development. It also emphasizes short-term strategies to sustain key programs and accelerate economic growth.

What are some of the key programs included in the 2025 budget?

Key programs in the 2025 budget include free meals for pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers, children, and students; free health checkups; renovation of school facilities; and the development of national food reserves through intensification and expansion of agricultural areas.

What role does tax policy play in Indonesia's economic strategy?

Tax policy plays a crucial role in expanding the tax base, increasing compliance through technology, and strengthening fiscal policy to support investment, economic transformation, and competitiveness. The strategy also includes international tax harmonization to improve Indonesia's tax ratio.

What are the quick-win programs the government aims to implement in the near term?

The government’s quick-win programs include free meals for targeted groups, free health checkups, renovation of educational facilities, and the creation of a national food reserve, all of which are aimed at improving welfare and supporting economic growth.