SE2x_2023_Week_4_5_Learning_Curves_of_photovoltaics-video

Summary

This video lecture discusses the learning curves of various photovoltaic (PV) technologies and their impact on market share. Over the past 50 years, the cost of PV modules has significantly decreased while production increased. The module price has been the dominant cost factor, but non-module costs are becoming increasingly important. The lecture compares different PV technologies, such as c-Si, CdTe, and CIGS, and examines their learning rates and market shares. It also touches on energy payback times and the future trajectory of solar energy costs. The session concludes with a look ahead to upcoming topics in solar energy economics.

Takeaways

• 😀 The cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules has decreased by a factor of 400 over the past 50 years, thanks to impressive technological advancements and scaling of production.
• 😀 PV module prices and cumulative global production are both plotted on a logarithmic scale, demonstrating significant cost reductions as production scales up.
• 😀 The total cost of a PV system consists of both module costs and non-module costs (e.g., racking, inverters, cabling), with non-module costs now playing a larger role in the system's total cost.
• 😀 Modules with higher efficiency, such as CdTe, reduce non-module costs because they generate more power per square meter, leading to a lower overall price per wattpeak for the entire PV system.
• 😀 The learning curve for PV modules shows a faster rate of cost reduction in the last 15 years, largely due to the upscaling of production in China.
• 😀 For the future, the learning curve for non-module costs may slow down compared to the learning curve for modules, which may impact how quickly PV systems become more affordable.
• 😀 If the trend of the last decades continues, PV systems could reach a cost of 0.46 euro cents per wattpeak in the next 10 years, achieving a target of 1 eurocent per kilowatt-hour of electricity generation.
• 😀 The market share of c-Si (crystalline silicon) technology is overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for 95% of the global PV market, while thin-film technologies like CdTe and CIGS make up just 5%.
• 😀 Thin-film technologies such as CIGS struggle to stay economically competitive with c-Si, having a slower learning rate (around 8%) in comparison to c-Si’s faster rate (24-40%).
• 😀 Energy payback time (the time it takes for a PV system to recover the energy used in its production) has decreased globally, with systems in southern Europe taking around 1 year to repay energy input, and systems in northern Europe taking around 1.3 years.

Q & A

What is the primary objective of this video lecture?

The primary objective is to discuss the learning curves of various photovoltaic (PV) technologies and how these curves relate to the market share of different PV technologies.

How has the price of PV modules changed over the last 50 years?

Over the last 50 years, the cost of PV modules has reduced by an impressive factor of 400, while cumulative production has increased by six orders of magnitude.

What factors contribute to the total cost of a PV system?

The total cost of a PV system is determined by the module cost and non-module costs, which include components like the racking, inverter, cabling, maintenance, and batteries.

Why are higher-efficiency modules important for reducing the total cost of PV systems?

Higher-efficiency modules produce more power per square meter, which reduces the non-module costs per unit of generated power, thereby lowering the overall cost per wattpeak of the system.

What is the main challenge for thin-film PV technologies like CdTe and CIGS?

Thin-film PV technologies like CdTe and CIGS are struggling to remain economically competitive with c-Si (crystalline silicon) PV technology due to slower learning rates and lower efficiency.

What is the learning rate in the context of PV technologies?

The learning rate refers to the fraction by which the cost price of a PV module is reduced when the cumulative production of that module technology is doubled.

How has the learning rate of c-Si PV technology changed over time?

The learning rate for c-Si PV technology was 24% for the first 30 years and has increased to 40% over the last 15 years, largely due to production upscaling efforts in China.

What is the current market share of different PV technologies?

As of 2021, c-Si PV technology dominates the market with a 95% share, where 84% is monocrystalline and 11% is multicrystalline. Thin-film technologies, including CdTe and CIGS, make up only 5% of the market.

How does geographical location affect the energy payback time of PV systems?

The energy payback time of PV systems varies by geographical location. For example, in Northern Europe, it takes about 1.3 years to recover the energy used to produce the system, while in Southern Europe, it takes around 1.1 years or less.

What is the energy payback time for a PV system in Sicily with multi-Si modules?

A PV system in Sicily with multi-Si modules has an energy payback time of around one year. Given a 20-year lifespan, this system can produce twenty times the energy required to manufacture it.