Trade Review - 12 March 2025 - Joseph Imbornone +10+2 Factors Table (Membership Sample Video)

Summary

In this trade review for March 12th, 2025, the trader shares insights into their system using the 10+2 strength factors to calculate probabilities for successful trades. They break down two key trades based on breakout signals and three-bar micro channels, discussing the effectiveness of their methodology. Despite consistent positive results, the trader reflects on the recurring issue of exiting trades too early, missing out on larger profits. However, they emphasize that consistent small gains can lead to significant success, with plans to scale up and tweak the system to improve trade management moving forward.

Takeaways

• 😀 The trader uses a system based on '10+2 strength factors' to assess trade probability and guide decision-making.
• 😀 Deducting 5% for each missing factor helps calculate the probability of a symmetrical second leg for a trade.
• 😀 When assessing a non-symmetrical second leg, the trader takes half of the deduction value for simplicity and accuracy.
• 😀 The trader follows a method of entering at 50% pullbacks and typically exits early to lock in profits.
• 😀 While exiting early may leave potential profits on the table, the system's logic still checks out in terms of trade probability.
• 😀 The trader reflects on a recurring theme of exiting too early and aims to improve this aspect of trade management.
• 😀 Instead of overhauling the system, the trader focuses on scaling up position sizes to increase profitability.
• 😀 The trader emphasizes the importance of consistency over making big gains, likening successful trading to hitting singles rather than home runs.
• 😀 There is a realization that making two points a day consistently in e-mini contracts can lead to significant yearly profits.
• 😀 The trader acknowledges the importance of balancing work and trading, using downtime to focus on other activities, which reduces screen obsession.
• 😀 The system's compatibility with the trader's personality is crucial for long-term success, and continuous small improvements are seen as the way forward.

Q & A

What is the 10+2 probability estimation system mentioned in the script?

The 10+2 probability estimation system is a method used by the trader to evaluate the likelihood of trade outcomes based on ten strength factors. For each missing factor, 5% is deducted from the probability. This is further adjusted for late legs, market regime, and time factors. The result is a probability number that guides trade decisions, such as whether a second leg will be symmetrical or non-symmetrical.

How does the trader calculate the probability of a non-symmetrical second leg?

To calculate the probability of a non-symmetrical second leg, the trader takes half of the deduction made for the symmetrical second leg. For example, if the deduction is 60%, half of this (30%) represents the probability of a non-symmetrical second leg, indicating a 70% chance of a non-symmetrical outcome.

Why does the trader prefer to use multiples of five for their calculations?

The trader prefers using multiples of five because it simplifies the calculation process. This approach avoids complex adjustments and makes it easier to quickly assess the probability of different scenarios without getting bogged down in overly precise numbers.

What is the trader's approach to taking profits in their system?

The trader follows a system where they typically take profits early, especially when the trade reaches a minimum target or a calculated level. This approach focuses on smaller, more consistent profits rather than aiming for large wins. However, the trader recognizes that taking profits too early is a recurring issue and is looking for ways to adjust their strategy for better results.

What is the trader’s strategy regarding position sizing?

The trader is considering scaling up their position size as a way to increase profitability, especially if they continue following their current system and make consistent profits. They believe that even without making major changes to their strategy, increasing position sizes could help enhance results.

How does the trader handle the emotional aspect of trading?

The trader acknowledges the emotional difficulty of exiting trades early and seeing further profit potential. However, they are learning to embrace a more measured approach and recognize that consistent small profits can lead to significant gains over time. They are also focusing on refining their system to reduce emotional decision-making.

What kind of improvements is the trader considering for their system?

The trader is considering several improvements, including holding trades longer, adding re-entry packages, and exploring different strategies like testing the bottom of a range or using a buy-the-close approach. These adjustments are aimed at optimizing the current system and maximizing profit potential.

What is the significance of the 'three-bar micro channel' mentioned in the script?

The 'three-bar micro channel' refers to a specific price pattern the trader uses for identifying entry points in a trade. It involves three bars (candlesticks) that form a channel, signaling a potential breakout or continuation in the market. This pattern is central to the trader’s system, especially for leg one breakouts in a trading range.

How does the trader manage their time while trading?

The trader manages their time efficiently by not watching every tick of the market. They use the waiting periods between signals to work on other tasks. When a signal appears, they focus on the trade, execute it, and then return to their other activities. This approach helps them maintain a balanced and less stressful trading day.

What does the trader mean by 'hitting singles' in trading?

When the trader refers to 'hitting singles,' they mean consistently making small, reliable profits rather than aiming for big wins. This mindset, inspired by advice from other traders, suggests that steady, incremental gains can lead to significant profits over time, which is more sustainable than trying to achieve large, unpredictable profits.