Iran’s President Raisi has died. What now?
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses the political implications of Iranian President Ri's death in a helicopter crash, which occurred amidst geopolitical tensions and internal power struggles. Ri, a potential successor to the ailing Supreme Leader, had a contentious relationship with Iran's military and clerical factions. His death intensifies the succession debate, potentially shifting Iran's political landscape towards a more militaristic regime. The script also explores Iran's complex political system, where democratically elected officials coexist with unelected theocratic authorities, and speculates on the impact of Ri's death on Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
Takeaways
- 🏆 Three years ago, Ibrahim Rizi won the presidency in a rigged election, with some analysts suggesting it was a strategic move to position himself for the Supreme Leader's role.
- 🛌 The aging and ailing Supreme Leader, Ali Shamani, is beyond the life expectancy of Iranians, and upon his death, it was expected that Rizi would aim to replace him.
- 🚁 Rizi's life was tragically cut short on May 19th in a helicopter crash while returning from a visit to a neighboring country, with the official story citing bad weather as the cause.
- 🤔 Speculations abound about the crash, with many questioning if Rizi's colleagues conspired against him given his long list of enemies both within and outside Iran.
- 🕊️ The death of Rizi comes at a time of significant geopolitical strife, with Iran and its proxies in conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
- 🔄 The upper echelons of Iran's theocracy are now in a state of infighting, with the death of Rizi deepening the internal power struggle for the succession of the Supreme Leader.
- 🎖️ Rizi was considered an ideal consensus candidate for the Supreme Leader's office, with his hardline credentials and experience in overseeing multiple branches of the government.
- 👥 The absence of Rizi leaves Moshava as the leading candidate for the Supreme Leader's office, despite concerns about the theocratic process appearing hereditary.
- 💼 The next presidential election in Iran will be crucial, as it will likely oversee the transition from Ali Shamani to a new Supreme Leader, shaping Iran's destiny for decades to come.
- 🕊️ In the interim, Vice President Muhammad Mbir will assume the presidency until a new election can be held within 50 days, as per the Constitution.
- 🕊️ Rizi's death is unlikely to affect Iran's immediate security but will cast a shadow over the succession process and potentially influence Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
Q & A
Who was Ibraham Rizi and how did he win the presidency?
-Ibraham Rizi was a political figure who won the presidency in a rigged election three years prior to the events described in the script. Analysts suggested that his win was a strategic move to position himself for a more distinguished role, potentially aiming to replace the aging and ailing supreme leader, Ali Shamani.
What happened to Ibraham Rizi on May 19th?
-On May 19th, Ibraham Rizi lost his life in a helicopter crash while returning from a visit to a neighboring country where he had inaugurated a dam. The crash occurred in a mountainous region about 86 km Northeast of Tze.
What is the official explanation for the helicopter crash?
-The official explanation for the helicopter crash is bad weather. However, given the complexity of Iranian politics, many have begun to speculate about more nefarious explanations, questioning whether Rizi's colleagues conspired to eliminate him.
How does Iran's political system work, and what is the role of the supreme leader?
-Iran operates as an Islamic Republic with a unique blend of democratic and totalitarian elements. The country has an unelected supreme leader at the top, who holds significant power over domestic and foreign policy, including the country's dress code and nuclear program. The supreme leader is selected by a group of senior clerics and lawyers known as the Assembly of Experts, which is elected in a national vote.
Who were the leading candidates to replace Ali Shamani as the supreme leader after his death?
-The two leading candidates to replace Ali Shamani as the supreme leader were Ibraham Rizi and Moshava. However, with Rizi's death, Moshava is now the only leading candidate left.
What are the implications of Moshava becoming the supreme leader?
-If Moshava becomes the supreme leader, it could make the theocratic process appear as a hereditary transfer of power, as he is the second son of the current supreme leader. This could lead to a strengthening of the military's role within Iran's political and economic landscape.
How did Ibraham Rizi's presidency impact Iran's domestic and foreign policies?
-Ibraham Rizi, being a conservative insider with close ties to Ali Shamani, was perhaps the least consequential president in Iran's post-revolutionary history. He did not press for domestic change and was known for his clueless handling of the economy, which nosedived in value during his presidency.
What is the role of the vice president in the event of the president's death?
-According to the Iranian Constitution, in the event of the president's death, the vice president assumes the presidency until a new election can be held within 50 days.
Who is Muhammad Mbir, and what is his significance in the current political climate?
-Muhammad Mbir is the vice president who assumed the presidency after Ibraham Rizi's death. He is a bureaucrat with close ties to the military and has handled conglomerates for both the supreme leader and the deputies from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
What is the significance of the next presidential election in Iran?
-The next presidential election in Iran is crucial as it will likely oversee the transition from Ali Shamani to a new supreme leader. The winner, whether conservative or moderate, will shape the destiny of Iran in the decades to come.
How does the script suggest the geopolitical context might influence the investigation into Rizi's death?
-The script suggests that the geopolitical context, with Iran engaged in a regional proxy conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, might lead to various conspiracy theories and finger-pointing. It also mentions that Israel has preemptively denied involvement in the crash.
Outlines
🏛️ Political Turmoil in Iran: The Death of President RI
This paragraph discusses the unexpected death of Iranian President RI, who was involved in a helicopter crash on May 19th. RI was a potential successor to the ailing Supreme Leader, Ali Shamani. The crash occurred during a visit to a neighboring country and involved the foreign minister as well. The official story attributes the crash to bad weather, but speculations about a conspiracy are rife due to RI's many enemies. The death of RI has significant implications for Iran's political landscape, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical strife with countries like the USA, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The internal power struggle within Iran's military and clerical leaders over the succession of the Supreme Leader is also highlighted, suggesting that RI's death could lead to increased infighting and changes in Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
👥 The Complexities of Iran's Political System and Succession
This paragraph delves into the intricacies of Iran's political system, which combines both elected and unelected branches, creating a unique blend of totalitarianism and democracy. It explains the roles of the president and the Supreme Leader, with the latter holding ultimate authority over domestic and foreign policies. The focus then shifts to the uncertainty following the death of a potential Supreme Leader successor, RI. The paragraph explores the implications of RI's death on the selection process for the next Supreme Leader, noting that Moshava, another leading candidate and the son of the current Supreme Leader, could face challenges due to the hereditary appearance of power transfer. The potential for a military-backed candidate to lead the country towards a more militaristic political landscape is also discussed, hinting at possible shifts in Iran's foreign policy under such leadership.
🕊️ The Immediate Aftermath and Future of Iran's Leadership
The final paragraph addresses the immediate aftermath of President RI's death, including the role of Vice President Muhammad Mbir, who is set to assume the presidency until new elections can be held within 50 days as per the Constitution. It also touches on the significance of the next presidential election, which will determine the direction of Iran's political landscape as the country transitions from Ali Shamani to a new Supreme Leader. The paragraph highlights the ongoing regional conflicts involving Iran, America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and the potential for conspiracy theories to arise from RI's death. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of the democratic bodies finding a new president swiftly during this challenging time, and the impact this period of political uncertainty could have on Iran's future.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Rigged Election
💡Supreme Leader
💡Helicopter Crash
💡Conspiracy Theories
💡Geopolitical Strife
💡Succession
💡Theocracy
💡Militaristic
💡Proxy Conflict
💡Constitutional Succession Process
💡Moderates vs. Conservatives
Highlights
Ibrahim Rizi won the presidency in a rigged election three years ago.
Rizi was expected to aim to replace the aging and ailing supreme leader Ali Shamani upon his death.
Rizi's death occurred in a helicopter crash on May 19th, with the foreign minister also onboard.
The official story of the crash is bad weather, but there are speculations of more nefarious explanations.
Rizi had many enemies both from without and within Iran, leading to questions about a possible conspiracy.
Iran is both totalitarian and democratic, with an unelected supreme leader and elected officials.
The supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, which is elected in a national vote.
Rizi was one of the leading candidates to take the Supreme Leader's office after Shamani's death.
Moshava, the supreme leader's second son, is now the only leading candidate left for the top office.
Moshava's rise to power could make the theocratic process appear as a hereditary transfer of power.
A military-backed Moshava could lead to a more militaristic political landscape in Iran.
Shamani has intervened against conservatives to support moderate-leaning lawmakers in the past.
The death of Rizi will cloud the succession of the supreme leader and could evolve Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
Rizi is remembered as the hanging judge who sent thousands of political prisoners to the gallows in 1988.
The younger generation remembers Rizi for his poor handling of the economy.
The next presidential election in Iran will be crucial and shape the country's destiny in the coming decades.
Iran is currently engaged in a regional proxy conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
Iran recently had a military clash with Israel, with both sides exchanging attacks.
Iran's Constitution sets a 50-day period for a new election after the president's death.
Vice President Muhammad Mbir will assume the presidency until a new election is held.
Transcripts
3 years ago Ibraham rizi won the
presidency in a rigged election some
analysts suggested it was a premeditated
move toward a more distinguished
position Ali shamani the aging and
ailing supreme leader is well beyond the
life expectancy of Iranians upon his
death it was expected that RI would aim
to replace him however history is not
without its irony instead of elevating
him to the Supreme off office winning
the presidency cost RI his life on May
19th while returning from a visit to
neighboring aeran where RI had
inaugurated a dam On the Border
authorities lost contact with his
helicopter it happened in a mountainous
region about 86 km Northeast of tze the
next day state media confirmed Ry was
dead along with the foreign minister who
was traveling in the same helicopter
much is still unclear about the crash
the official story so far is bad weather
but nothing is ever as it seems in
Iranian politics many have begun to
speculate about more nefarious
explanations Rice's list of enemies is
long both from without and within it is
not unreasonable to question whether his
colleagues conspired to eliminate him
nevertheless nervous days are ahead for
tyan the president is dead and it comes
at a time of great geopolitical Strife
on the outside Iran and its proxies are
waging a conflict against America Israel
and Saudi Arabia meanwhile from the
inside Iran's military and clerical
power Brokers are battling for the
succession of the supreme leader the
death of RI deepens infighting within
the upper echelons of the theocracy it
changes everything everywhere all at
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once there is no shortage of conspiracy
stories when it comes to Iran with so
many adversaries on all fronts many
Iranians wonder if the accident involved
fou will play the finger pointing has
already begun Israel has come out
preemptively saying that it wasn't them
and US officials have backed that up
still sometimes truth takes a backseat
in geopolitics and this is precisely the
type of narrative that can be twisted
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it Iran is not for beginners it can be
perplexing in some ways the country has
an unelected supreme leader at the top
but it also has a democratically elected
president this then makes Iran both
totalitarian Democratic at the same time
seeing it this way goes a long way to
explaining why the country is the way it
is after the revolution in 1979 Iran
emerged as an Islamic Republic no such
system existed at the time so the
leadership had to make up the rules on
the go the result was a government that
mashed together two widely different
political beliefs some parts are elected
and some are unelected but they're both
Tangled together like order in chaos
there is considerable tension between
these two systems Iranians elect the
president the Parliament and the
Assembly of experts which is the
government body that chooses the supreme
leader Tangled interchangeably with the
supreme leader is the unelected
theocracy which includes the military
the mosque the Judiciary and the media
as well as advisory bodies like the
expediency Council and the guardian
Council the presidency has restrained
Powers particularly when it comes to
foreign policy the supreme leader is the
one who calls the shots he sets the tone
for domestic and foreign policy
including the country's dress code and
nuclear program but what happens when
the supreme leader dies that is the
million doll question officially the
supreme leader is selected by a group of
senior clerics and lawyers who make up
the Assembly of experts which in turn is
elected in a national vote RI was one of
the two leading candidates next in line
to take the Supreme Leader's office
after his death the other being
moshava there are some other Darkhorse
candidates but it's hard to imagine them
winning enough support in Iran's
intricate political system RI was
considered an ideal consensus candidate
yeah had overseen multiple branches of
the government and his Hardline
credentials were unquestionable the
conservative and military power Brokers
had hoped to employ him to advance their
interests with ryy gone however it is
not clear who else could gather
consensus to fill that role mashaba is
now the only leading candidate left even
so the problem with mushtaba is that he
is supreme leader K's second son moshava
has Amplified his credentials among the
Iranian clergy in recent years but if he
came to power it would make the
Theocratic process look like a
hereditary transfer of power admittedly
RI wasn't popular either but with him
out of the picture moshava now has a
clear shot to the top office moshava is
now likely to speedrun through the
political system making allies left and
right his most sought-after objective
would be to make a deal with the power
Brokers from the Islamic revolutionary
guard cores doing so would allow moshava
to weather any backlash however in turn
this would strengthen the role of the
military within the country's political
and economic landscape for context while
shamani is widely seen as an ultra
conservative leader he has on many
occasions intervened against
conservatives to support moderate
leaning
lawmakers for instance he backed rohan's
rise to the presidency in 2013 and he
embraced negotiations with the United
States over Iran's nuclear program a
supreme leader lacking such Maia valian
power plays would reinforce Iran's
Reckless foreign policy driven by the
military establishment so with a
military-backed mashaba in power Iran's
political landscape might evolve from a
Theocratic democracy to something more
militaristic in the decade following
Iran could emerge as less religious
conservative at home but more
belligerent abroad seen in this way the
death of rizi will shake politics in tan
it will not affect the country's
immediate security but it will Cloud the
succession of the supreme leader which
in itself could evolve Iran's domestic
andfor foreign policy few Iranians will
mourn RI though they will remember him
as the hanging judge a prosecutor in
Teran who sent thousands of political
prisoners to The Gallows in
1988 meanwhile the younger generation
will remember him for his clueless
handling of the economy the president
who stalked his cabinet with military
men and clerics who watched as the real
nose dived in value in less than 3 years
during his presidency RI rejected to
press for domestic change which is in
contrast to his immediate predecessors
Hassan rouani for instance negotiated
the nuclear deal with the West while
Ahmed inad sought to operate
independently from the supreme leader RI
being a conservative Insider with close
ties to shamani was perhaps the least
consequential president in Iran's
post-revolution evolutionary history the
Theocratic half of Iran's government
will now need to reach some sort of
consensus on mushtaba or negotiate for
one of the other Darkhorse candidates
most likely another conservative Insider
in the meantime the Democratic bodies
will need to find a new president
swiftly and at a difficult time the
Constitution clearly sets out a
succession process a new election must
be held within 50 days until then vice
president Muhammad mbir will assume the
presidency what you need to know about
mcir is that he is a bureaucrat much
like Mike Pence mcber enjoys close ties
to hini and the military he used to
handle conglomerates worth tens of
billions of dollars for both the supreme
leader and the deputies from the Islamic
revolutionary guard Corps eventually
though mochar will be replaced by
someone else the next presidential
election will be crucial whoever wins
conservatives or moderates will likely
oversee the transition from Ali shamani
to a new supreme leader it will shape
the destiny of Iran in the decades to
come however these power plays come at a
time when Iran is engaged in a regional
proxy conflict with America Israel and
Saudi Arabia not surprisingly many
Iranians wandered if any of their
adversaries had a role in the crash last
month Iran came to blows with Israel the
Israelis had assassinated an Iranian
General in Syria and the Iranians
retaliated with a volley of more than
300 missiles and drones aimed at Israel
mad Israel's spy apparatus has a
long-standing history of assassinating
its foes including in Iran where it has
eliminated highr file nuclear scientists
but mosad has never gone so far as to
assassinate a head of state doing so
would be an explicit Act of war that
would call for a violent Iranian
response it would be Reckless to risk
such hostility just to assassinate RI a
profoundly unpopular politician who
lacks final authority over many of
Iran's key policy decisions so Israel's
involvement is unlike
but that won't stop Iranian officials
from promoting conspiracy theories
either way ri's death will exacerbate
infighting within the upper ranks of the
elite this is not a system where people
leave empty-handed if necessary they can
cut off
hands I've been your host chivon from
Caspian report if you approve of what we
do please leave a comment hit the like
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in any case thank you for your time and
soul
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