Top Ukraine General ADMITS War UNWINNABLE

Summary

The video script discusses the recent developments in Ukraine, focusing on Russia's strategic shift in its military and economic approach. President Putin's replacement of the long-time defense minister, Serge Shoigu, with an economist signals a move towards a more robust and self-sufficient Russian economy, heavily reliant on its military-industrial complex. Despite setbacks and allegations of corruption, Russia's military power is growing, and its economy is outperforming the Euro Zone according to the IMF. The script also highlights the challenges faced by Ukraine, with a top Ukrainian General stating that victory on the battlefield alone is not feasible and that treaties are needed to end the war. The situation remains volatile, with Russia conducting tactical nuclear weapon drills, escalating tensions and the risk of a broader conflict. The video emphasizes the need for negotiations and a resolution to prevent further escalation and instability.

Takeaways

• 🔄 **Replacement of Russian Defense Minister**: President Putin has replaced his longtime defense minister, Sergey Shoygu, with a former deputy prime minister specializing in economics, signaling a shift towards economic management within the military-industrial complex.
• 📈 **Russian Economic Resilience**: Despite sanctions, Russia has managed to bolster its economy by ramping up its military-industrial complex, becoming a major employer and increasing artillery production.
• 🏆 **Putin's Popularity and Power**: Putin's popularity is at an all-time high, and he has a stronger hold on power, with oligarchs not deserting him despite sanctions.
• 🚀 **Russia's Military Advancements**: Russia's military has become more powerful and efficient, with new leadership and a more robust war footing compared to before the war.
• ⛔ **Failed Ukrainian Invasion**: The initial Russian invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned, with the early phases being disastrous for Russian forces.
• 💰 **Economic Focus of New Defense Minister**: The new defense minister's background in economics indicates Russia's focus on economic aspects of warfare and the integration of the military with the economy.
• 🔍 **Stalemate in Ukraine**: The war has reached a stalemate, with Russia gaining the upper hand and looking to increase defense production to support the economy and maintain public support.
• 📉 **Decline in Ukrainian Defense**: Ukraine's ability to intercept Russian missiles has declined, with a significant drop in interception rates, highlighting a strategic problem for Ukraine.
• 🤝 **Need for Negotiations**: A top Ukrainian General suggests that meaningful negotiations for peace may not begin until the second half of 2025, and even pushing Russian forces back would not end the war.
• ⏳ **Risks of Prolonged Conflict**: The ongoing conflict is seen as a risk, with the potential for increased instability and future problems in Eastern Europe.
• ⚔️ **Potential for Escalation**: There is a danger of the conflict escalating due to actions like Putin's order for tactical nuclear weapon drills, which are seen as a deterrent to the West.

Q & A

Why did President Putin of Russia replace Serge Shu as the defense minister?

President Putin replaced Serge Shu with a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics, indicating a shift towards economic management and a fusion of the war industrial complex, which has become a significant part of Russia's economy post-sanctions.

What does the replacement of the defense minister suggest about Russia's current economic situation?

The replacement suggests that Russia is in a more robust and self-sufficient place than before the war, with a focus on ramping up their military-industrial complex to pump money into the economy and become a major employer.

How has Russia's military performance evolved since the early phases of the war?

Russia's military performance has improved significantly since the early disastrous phases of the war. They have mastered attritional warfare and have developed custom strike packages to maximize penetration of missile defense systems.

What is the current interception rate of Russian missiles by Ukraine?

In the past 6 months, Ukraine has intercepted only 30% of Russian missiles, down from 73% in the preceding 6 months.

Why is the Ukrainian General, General Spitzky, skeptical about Ukraine's ability to win the war on the battlefield alone?

General Spitzky does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone because even if they were able to push Russian forces back to its borders, it wouldn't end the war. He believes wars can only end with treaties and meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest.

What does the Ukrainian General suggest about the future of Russia's military production?

According to General Spitzky, Russia's military production has expanded but will reach a plateau by early 2026 due to shortages in material and engineers.

Why is there a concern about the potential for a nuclear conflict in the current situation?

The concern arises because as the Ukrainian military situation worsens, there is a risk that Western nations might intervene more directly, which could provoke a stronger response from Russia, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

What is the current state of the conflict in the media and public perception?

The conflict has slid from the front page and is being pushed to the back of Americans' memories and attention span. There is a lack of discussion about a clear plan or negotiation, and the media is not focusing on it as much as before.

What does the speaker suggest is the current strategy of the United States regarding the conflict?

The speaker suggests that the United States is 'kicking the can down the road,' funding the conflict without a clear plan to end it, which increases the risk of a larger disaster and the decimation of Ukrainian generations.

What is the significance of the recent tactical nuclear weapon drills ordered by Putin?

The drills are a show of strength and a deterrent to the West. They come in response to perceived threats from France, Britain, and the United States, and highlight the potential for the conflict to escalate to a nuclear level.

Why does the speaker believe that the situation is still very dangerous?

The speaker believes the situation is dangerous due to the ongoing tension, the potential for direct Western intervention, and the risk of the conflict escalating to involve nuclear weapons. The long-term nature of the conflict and the lack of a clear resolution path also contribute to the danger.

Outlines

00:00

🏛️ Russian Security Shakeup and Economic Focus

The video discusses a significant shift in Russia's defense strategy, as President Putin replaces the longtime defense minister, Serge Shu, with a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics. This change indicates Russia's focus on economic management and the integration of the military-industrial complex into the economy. The move is seen as a sign of strength, with Russia's economy reportedly outperforming the Euro Zone and Putin's popularity at an all-time high. The new leadership is expected to be more efficient, and the military more powerful, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and allegations of corruption within the system.

05:02

💥 Russian Military Advancements and Ukrainian Challenges

The video highlights Russia's progress in mastering attritional warfare and the development of custom strike packages to maximize missile penetration. It notes a decrease in Ukraine's interception rates of Russian missiles and an increase in the effectiveness of Russian tactics. A Ukrainian General, cited from The Economist, states that Ukraine cannot win the war on the battlefield alone and that meaningful negotiations may not begin until the second half of 2025. The video also criticizes the ongoing support for Ukraine, questioning the strategy and the risk of escalating the conflict, including the potential for nuclear engagement.

10:02

⚔️ Escalating Tensions and the Risk of a Wider Conflict

The video concludes with a discussion on the heightened tensions and the potential for a larger conflict, particularly if Western forces were to become more directly involved in the conflict. It mentions Putin's recent order for tactical nuclear weapon drills as a deterrent to the West and the precarious situation this creates. The video suggests that the conflict is being downplayed in the media and that there is a lack of a clear plan to resolve it, leading to a dangerous and prolonged situation that could have severe consequences for the region and the world.

Keywords

💡Military-industrial complex

The military-industrial complex refers to the intricate relationship between a nation's military and the defense industry that supplies it, often leading to a close collaboration between the two. In the context of the video, it is mentioned that Russia has ramped up its military-industrial complex post-sanctions, which has significantly contributed to the country's economy and self-sufficiency. This is evident in the script where it discusses how Russia has become a major employer and increased its artillery production.

💡Economic management

Economic management involves the oversight and strategic planning of a country's economic policies and activities to achieve desired outcomes, such as growth, stability, and self-sufficiency. The video highlights the importance of economic management in Russia's current situation, where a former deputy prime minister with a specialization in economics has been appointed to oversee the defense ministry. This indicates a shift towards a more economically-driven approach to military and security matters.

💡Attritional warfare

Attritional warfare is a military strategy that aims to wear down the enemy by causing continuous losses, both in terms of manpower and resources, until the enemy's capacity to fight is diminished. The video script mentions that Russia has mastered attritional warfare on the ground, which is evident in their tactics of making small but significant gains along the border and their increased lethality in bombardment.

💡Missile defense systems

Missile defense systems are technologically advanced mechanisms designed to detect, intercept, and destroy incoming missiles. The video discusses how Russia has developed custom strike packages to maximize penetration against missile defense systems, leading to a decrease in Ukraine's interception rate. This is significant as it indicates an evolution in Russia's military capabilities and a challenge for Ukraine's defense.

💡Oligarchic corruption

Oligarchic corruption refers to the misuse of state power and resources by a small group of wealthy and influential individuals, often for personal gain. The video script alludes to allegations of corruption within the Russian system, suggesting that this has been a factor in the failures of the Russian military and the shakeup in leadership.

💡Tactical nuclear weapon drills

Tactical nuclear weapon drills are exercises conducted by a military to practice the deployment and use of nuclear weapons in a tactical or battlefield context. The video mentions that Putin has ordered such drills as a deterrent to the West, indicating an escalation in the potential for conflict and highlighting the ongoing tension and risk in the region.

💡Keynesianism

Keynesianism is an economic theory that advocates for government intervention and spending to stabilize the economy during recessions and depressions. The video script refers to an economist who is a fan of military Keynesianism, which suggests a belief in the government's role in driving the economy, particularly through defense spending. This is relevant to the video's theme as it reflects Russia's strategy in bolstering its economy through military production.

💡Interception rate

The interception rate refers to the percentage of enemy missiles or drones that are successfully intercepted and destroyed by a defense system. The video discusses the decrease in Ukraine's interception rate of Russian missiles, which has significant implications for the effectiveness of Ukraine's defense capabilities.

💡Stalemate

A stalemate in military terms refers to a situation where neither side can make significant progress towards victory, often leading to a prolonged period of little to no change in the status of the conflict. The video script mentions a stalemate in the war, indicating that despite ongoing efforts, a clear resolution is not imminent.

💡Nuclear war

Nuclear war refers to a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons, which would have catastrophic global consequences. The video expresses concern about the increasing risk of nuclear war due to the ongoing conflict and the actions of various parties, particularly in the context of escalating military exercises and rhetoric.

💡Status quo

The status quo is the current state of affairs or the existing situation. The video discusses the desire to preserve the status quo in the conflict, suggesting a reluctance to make significant changes or concessions that could lead to a resolution. This is indicative of the complex political dynamics at play and the challenges in finding a peaceful solution.

Highlights

President Putin of Russia has replaced Serge Shu, the longtime defense minister, with a former deputy prime minister specializing in economics, indicating a shift towards economic management and military-industrial complex integration.

The replacement signifies Russia's increased self-sufficiency and robust economy post-sanctions, with a focus on military-industrial complex as a major employer and driver of economic growth.

The new leadership is seen as more competent and efficient, potentially making Russia's military even more powerful.

Despite the failed invasion of Ukraine and allegations of corruption, Russia's military production is ramping up, and they are gaining an upper hand in the conflict.

The Ukrainian special reconnaissance unit commander reports that Russian forces have made significant gains in the Carke region, highlighting a shift in the war's dynamics.

Russia's missile defense systems have been tested and improved over two years, leading to a decrease in Ukraine's interception rates.

Ukraine has only intercepted 46% of Russian missiles in the past six months, down from 73% in the preceding six months.

A top Ukrainian General, General Spitzky, does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone and suggests meaningful negotiations could begin in the second half of 2025.

There is skepticism about the feasibility of military objectives and the potential for pushing Russia back to its borders without achieving a war win.

The ongoing conflict is seen as a risk to stability, with Putin ordering tactical nuclear weapon drills to deter the West.

The situation is described as dangerous, with the potential for escalating tensions and the possibility of a larger disaster if Western forces intervene.

The transcript suggests a lack of a clear plan or media discussion on securing negotiations, with an emphasis on the human and economic costs of the conflict.

The conflict is being pushed to the back of American memories and attention spans, with a focus on maintaining the status quo.

Despite the risks, there is an argument against increasing the risk of nuclear war or further destabilizing Eastern Europe.

The transcript highlights the need for a shift in strategy, potentially towards forcing a deal or accepting the conflict as irrelevant.

The situation is framed within a broader context of international tension and the potential for conflict escalation, drawing parallels with other geopolitical standoffs.

The call for a subscriber-funded independent media organization to provide alternative perspectives on such complex and critical global issues.

Transcripts

let's move on to Ukraine uh this was

also a very important story this is one

which uh we've been tabling for a little

while there have been no immediate

developments with the biggest news that

really came out from just two days ago

let's put this up there on the screen is

uh you can look view it in two ways

President Putin of Russia has replaced

Serge Shu who was the longtime defense

minister one of his closest allies in

the Russian government in a major

security shakeup allegedly Crystal he

had been uh he's been nominated and

given a promotion but I guess they call

this like promotion a promotional firing

in the best way possible but what's

fascinating is that he did not put a

military man to replace him he actually

put a former deputy prime minister quote

who specializes in economics to replace

shogo now the reason why that's so

important is that this shows basically

that the Russian economy post sanctions

the way they've been able to survive is

to fully ramp up their entire

military-industrial complex it's the way

that they've been able to pump so much

money into their economy they become one

of the major employers obviously they've

drafted Andor recruited hundreds and

hundreds of thousands of Russian

citizens into the military they've got

artillery production which is coming up

so economic management and a fusion of

the war industrial complex tells us

actually that Russia is in a more robust

and actually self-sufficient place than

it was prior to the war sergey's firing

really comes on the heels of obviously

his failed invasion of Ukraine and some

of his embarrassing it it just revealed

the oligarchic you know corruption that

was inherent to the system hiring

somebody like this especially on the

heels of the many Russian victories

recently uh that have been happening it

tells us where things are going in that

they're coming at this from a total

position of strength their economy is

doing better than the Euro Zone

according to the IMF you know the

international monitor fund you've got

Putin basically more popular than ever

more of a stronger hold on power the

oligarchs themselves all have not

deserted him despite all of these

sanctions and now you're putting

somebody frankly even more competent

who's in charge which if you think

Russia's an adversary is not necessarily

something that you want so by all means

their military is much more powerful

their new leaders are much more

efficient and they're showing us that

their War footing is actually on more of

a basis today than it was before and

that any attempt to degrade their

capacity has not happened despite the

$200 billion or whatever that we've

spent so far yeah so reportedly there's

a few things going on here um to start

with shyo is the guy who thought that

they would just roll into keev and knock

off the zilinsky government and it' be

over like this and no no problem and

obviously that didn't work out and

you'll remember the early phases of this

war went very badly for Russia I mean it

was really a truly a catastrophic like

disastrous showing from the Russian

military there's also you know all these

I'm sure Justified allegations of

corruption in sense that he's like you

know corrupt dude who's um you know

eating off the tee of the state so

there's that and then the I think bigger

picture here is that they describe this

economist I'm going to go with bellav as

his name they say he's a fan of military

Keynesian keynesianism he believes in

the supremacy of the government in the

economy government first then business

and so it's an acknowledgement too of

the Contours of where this war is at

this point that basically like you know

you're in this somewhat of a stalemate

right Russia is starting to gain the

upper hand and one of the key questions

here is um you know how can your economy

perform how can you spin up as much

defense production as possible and um as

as Sager's about to talk about there are

a lot of signs that you know the

ukrainians not only because there's been

a lull in their support from the US that

lull has now been filled don't worry

guys all the stuff is coming to you but

because they have so little of their own

defense production capabilities um that

you know over the long run Russia is

focused on being able to spin up their

own production and using that to bolster

their economy and also keep people happy

in terms of wages and jobs Etc they're

going to be they're going to be in a

much better position no and they are in

a better position so let's go to the

next part and we've just got sign after

sign after sign that this just

catastrophic news at every turn for the

ukrainians here we have major offensive

in the carke regions quote according to

their own Commander the Russians simply

walked in this is the commander of the

Ukrainian special reconnaissance unit

who fought in the carke offensive and

yet what is he talking about here he

says quote now his men are facing the

prospects of doing the exact same

walking in all over again because

Russian forces have made small but

significant gains right along the border

of the carke region their advances quote

are only a few miles deep but have

swallowed up nearly 100 kilometers

already of Russian territory and that in

the more heavily defended east of

Ukraine it has taken Russia months to

achieve the same so they're trying to

consolidate as many of their gains as

possible before major Aid begins to flow

from the west but even if the aid does

begin to flow you're going to see that

the Russians have really mastered of

attritional Warfare on the ground they

know what they're doing now at this

point let's put this up there for

example Russia's bombardment of Ukraine

is more lethal than ever and what you

see is that the Russians have now had

two years to test NATO missile defense

systems and ones that The ukrainians

Have and Have developed custom strike

packages that are maximized penetration

and so that they can hit all of the

targets that they want they say in the

past 6 months Ukraine has intercepted

only 46% of Russian missiles compared

with 73% in the preceding 6 months

before the interception rate has fallen

to 30% now and the interception rate for

these long range Iranian drones has fell

1% to 82% in the past 6 months so drones

you know remain relatively easier for

them to shoot down they seem to have

mastered that but missiles which are are

you know frankly the something that

Russians any highly Advanced nation

state would be able to develop has

largely been able to use and employ them

and it's something that the ukrainians

themselves have been one of the biggest

strategic problems for them that is

happening on the ground I would also

show you this a very recent interview

with the Ukrainian uh the a top

Ukrainian General General spitzky this

is from The Economist I'll read you

directly what he has to say he does not

see a way for Ukraine to win the war on

the battlefield alone even if it were

able to push Russian forces back to its

borders quote an increasingly distant

Prospect it wouldn't end the war such

Wars can only end with treaties he says

right now both sides are jockeying for

the most favorable position ahead of

potential talks but according to him

meaningful negotiations can begin only

in the second TW half of 2025 at the

earliest he says by then Russia will be

facing serious headwinds because their

military production has EXP expanded but

it will reach a plateau by early 2026

due to shortages in material and

Engineers frankly this is all cope and

it's BS you know their artillery

production all of their military

production has no signs that it's going

to Plateau anytime soon if anything

they're making exponential games year

over-year and Crystal if they're going

to admit that even if they were to

achieve their so-called military

objective and push the uh Russians all

the way back to to their borders that

they still wouldn't win the war then

what are we doing here why are we

spending all this money except you know

increasing the risk of nuclear war Andor

a a serious problem in Eastern Europe

which the last thing that we all need

right now I mean I can tell you what

we're doing it's just pushing the

problem off to you know after the

election and pushing it kicking the can

on the road because there's no real

possibility of ending the war at this

point there's you no effort to secure

some sort of negotiation as we've

discussed before anytime that American

Presidents actually you know draw down

troops withd draw from an area they get

take hell from the news media I mean you

can imagine if there was some actual

concrete deal and Ukraine had to give up

the dbas or Crimea or whatever

officially Biden would be killed he I

mean not literally guys but in the Press

they would it would be wall to--all

negative coverage just like we saw with

Afghanistan so it's just like we'll keep

funding it we'll just try to preserve

the status quo Kick the Can down the

road at the cost of you know courting

disaster and at the cost of decimation

of generations of Ukrainian men and you

know future possible instability um for

years and years to come so that's the

phase we're in at this point and no one

even denies that I mean there's not even

a plan you don't even hear this it's not

even talked about in the media anymore

we're entering that phase as well you

you see you know obviously we've pulled

some Wall Street Journal reports and

whatever but when's the last time you

heard them talking about this on cable

news is very much slid from the front

page it's just this sort of Perpetual

ongoing conflict that they're working

hard to push to the back of Americans

memories and you know attention span and

hope that something undefined

potentially one day changes absolutely

and uh last but not least just to

highlight why this remains dangerous

let's put this up there we still see a

lot of actions from Putin and from

Russia which we don't want in a stable

World puter Putin orders tactical

nuclear weapon drills quote to deter the

West which was only a week or so ago he

said on Monday that it would practice

their deployment of tactical nuclear

weapons after what Moscow said were

threats from France Britain and the

United States this is because the

insanity of of all of this is that as

the ukrainians do worse and worse on the

battlefield and as the West realizes

that a alone will never be able to prop

them up we have two choices we can force

them to cut a deal and we can just wash

our hands of an irrelevant conflict or

what the British and the French want to

do is hey maybe we send some troops

there on the ground Special Forces and

others immediately the Russians were

like yeah if you do that we will kill

them we will strike and kill soldiers

who were deployed onto Ukraine and now

what you know we're in Article 5

territory we're in a whole other

disaster and that's why the tactical

nuclear weapon drills are not all that

far away I mean we talk about this too

with with Israel and Iran just because

it didn't go hot that one time it's just

all about tension and tension and

tension when you read history it's very

rare that a single event just happens in

a vacuum it's easily predictable if you

go back and you look at all the signs

some of which can take years I mean you

know 10 15 years of tension and buildup

and all that before something eventually

explodes so recency bias is far too high

this is still a very very dangerous

conflict that's happening that's

absolutely the case hey guys if you like

that video go to breakingpoints outcom

become a premium subscriber and help us

build the best Independent Media

organization on the planet that's right

we're subscriber funded we're building

something new we want to replace these

failing mainstream media organizations

so again to subscribe it's breaking

points.com