Poutine - Ces pays qui n’ont pas voulu voir | Le dessous des cartes | Leçon de géopolitique | ARTE

Summary

The video script features an in-depth conversation with Sylvie Kauffmann, an esteemed journalist from Le Monde, discussing her book 'Les Aveuglés: comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie.' The discussion delves into the political landscape and the shift in Vladimir Putin's approach towards the West. Kauffmann highlights Putin's initial charm offensive, particularly in Germany, and how it later transformed into a more aggressive stance, as seen in his 2007 Munich speech. The narrative explores the dependency relationships that Russia cultivated with key European countries—Germany through gas, the UK through financial ties, and France through security ambitions. The conversation also touches upon the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit and the subsequent Russian invasion of Georgia, emphasizing the lack of a robust Western response. Kauffmann further discusses the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the tepid European reaction, which she suggests may have emboldened Putin. The summary concludes with reflections on the underestimation of Russia's willingness to use force and the stark contrast between European and Russian perceptions of warfare in the 21st century.

Takeaways

• 🌟 Vladimir Putin initially gained trust in the European political scene with his charming and peaceful approach, especially during his speech at the German Bundestag in September 2001.
• 📉 In 2007, Putin presented a more aggressive stance during the Munich conference, criticizing the US and its hegemonic tendencies, which shocked the European audience.
• 🔄 Despite the shift in Putin's rhetoric, European leaders, particularly from Germany and France, were reluctant to change their policies or acknowledge the changing dynamics in Russia's relations with the West.
• 💸 Russia established a dependency relationship with Germany through gas supply, with the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, and with the UK through financial ties, often referred to as the 'London Laundromat'.
• 🇫🇷 France sought a strategic and security partnership with Russia, viewing itself as a nuclear power with a responsibility to rebuild the European security architecture, which they believed could not be done without Russia.
• 🤝 The Bucharest NATO summit in 2008 saw a compromise regarding the potential membership of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO, without setting a timeline, leading to a situation where the door was open but no formal invitation was extended.
• ⏳ The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 showcased Putin's willingness to act aggressively, while the lack of a strong response from the West signaled to him that he could push further without significant consequences.
• 📚 Sylvie Kauffmann's book 'Les Aveuglés' details how French and German elites were blind to Putin's changing vision and the potential consequences of their dependency on Russia.
• 🚫 The annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia was met with sanctions from Europe, but they were perceived as weak and ineffective, not deterring Russia from further aggression.
• 🤔 The failure to anticipate and respond to Putin's increasingly bold actions is attributed to a lack of willingness among European leaders to consider the worst-case scenarios and to prepare for them.
• ✈️ The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 is seen as the culmination of a series of events where Putin's actions were not met with a firm and unified response from the European countries.

Q & A

How did Vladimir Putin initially present himself on the European political stage?

Vladimir Putin initially presented himself as a young and charismatic leader who managed to charm everyone with his surprising appearance at the German Bundestag in September 2001, where he delivered a peaceful speech in German, expressing admiration for Germany and offering an olive branch of cooperation to the West in the context of the shock from Islamist terrorism.

What was the shift in Putin's stance observed by the Europeans in 2007?

In 2007, at the Munich Security Conference, Putin presented a different image, entering the stage like a boxer and delivering an aggressive and critical speech against the United States, accusing it of hegemony and the desire to impose its will on the entire world, which left the audience in shock.

How did Germany become dependent on Russia, particularly through the gas supply?

Germany's dependency on Russian gas began with Gerhard Schröder's chancellorship, during which the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline contract was signed. Angela Merkel later deepened this dependency by supporting the construction of Nord Stream 2, despite the first pipeline's capacity not being saturated.

What was the situation with the United Kingdom regarding financial ties with Russia?

After the privatization of the Russian economy following the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of money needed to be laundered, and this money found refuge in the City of London and British financial institutions, leading to the term 'London Laundromat'.

How did France establish a security relationship with Russia?

France has sought to establish a strategic and security relationship with Russia, viewing itself as a nuclear power with a seat on the UN Security Council and a voice on the international stage. The French presidents have aimed to rebuild the European security architecture with Russia's involvement, considering it essential to have a dialogue with Russia as an equal power.

What was the outcome of the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit regarding Ukraine and Georgia's potential NATO membership?

The outcome was a compromise that left no one satisfied. It was stated that Ukraine and Georgia would be part of NATO or were destined to be part of NATO, but no timeline was given. This led to a situation where the door was open, but there was no formal invitation, and they were never formally invited or admitted.

How did the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 affect European reactions?

The invasion led to a realization among Europeans that a grave event had occurred, with Russia violating internationally recognized borders. However, the sanctions imposed on Russia were perceived as weak and did not impress Russia. This showed that the West did not have a strong reflex to imagine the worst and respond accordingly.

What was the European reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014?

The annexation was recognized as a severe violation of international law, and as a result, Europe imposed sanctions on Russia. However, the sanctions were considered weak and not sufficient to deter Russia, with President Hollande referring to them as 'nioniotte' (a French term implying something insignificant or trivial).

Why did Europe fail to consistently respond strongly to Putin's actions?

Europe was engaged in prolonged negotiations with Putin, who was adept at drawing out talks while advancing his strategic interests on the ground. Europeans, not believing in the possibility of a full-scale war in the 21st century, were caught off guard by Putin's willingness to use force, including the initiation of total war.

How did the relationship between Europe and Russia evolve from the time of the Georgian crisis to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine?

The relationship saw a pattern where Putin would engage in aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine, while Europe would enter into negotiations and impose limited sanctions. This pattern showed a lack of a robust deterrent response from Europe, allowing Putin to continue his aggressive policies.

What is the main thesis of Sylvie Kauffmann's book 'Les Aveuglés'?

The main thesis of Sylvie Kauffmann's book is that the elites, particularly in France and Germany, were blind to the changing nature of Vladimir Putin's Russia and its intentions. This blindness allowed Putin to gradually increase his aggressive actions without facing a strong, unified response from the West.