日本負利率完結| 拆倉潮一觸即發?! 資金流去哪個市場？(English +中文CC)

Summary

The Bank of Japan has ended its eight-year negative interest rate policy, raising rates to 0.1% for the first time since 2007. Despite expectations of a yen rebound, the currency fell due to continued loose monetary policy and strong US economy. The market's reaction was mixed, with past rate hikes showing varied impacts on stocks. Institutional investors remain optimistic about Japan's economic prospects, with significant buying activity in Japanese stocks. The Bank of Japan's large holdings in ETFs and the potential impact of future sales on the market are a concern. Corporate governance improvements are driving a revaluation of Japanese stocks, which are still considered undervalued compared to global markets.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy and raised rates for the first time since 2007, moving from -0.1% to 0.1%.
• 🌐 This decision followed global quantitative easing trends, where Japan had previously been more aggressive with rates below 0%.
• 🔍 Market expectations were that the end of these policies would strengthen the yen, but it actually fell after the announcement.
• 💹 Historically, Japanese stock markets have risen after interest rate hikes, with certain sectors like steel and machinery outperforming.
• 🏦 The Bank of Japan's policy changes also included ceasing the purchase of ETFs and trust funds to support the market.
• 🌿 Despite ending its market support, the Bank of Japan still holds a significant portion of the Japanese stock market, estimated at 7%.
• 🌋 The economic impact of the policy change is complex and not solely dependent on interest rates; other economic factors are also crucial.
• 💼 Institutional investors remain optimistic about Japan's economic prospects and have been buying Japanese stocks aggressively.
• 💵 Japan's economy has transitioned from deflation to stable inflation, and wage increases are at a 30-year high, potentially boosting consumer spending and economic growth.
• 📊 Japanese stocks are considered undervalued compared to other markets like the US, with lower P/E and Price to Book ratios.
• 🏢 Improvements in corporate governance in Japan are leading to a revaluation of Japanese stocks, reducing the discount previously applied by investors.

Q & A

What is the main reason behind the Bank of Japan's recent decision to raise interest rates?

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates because it has achieved a stable 2% inflation, marking the end of its eight-year-long negative interest rate policy.

How has the market reacted to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike?

Although many expected the yen to rise after the rate hike, it actually fell further because the Bank of Japan emphasized that it would maintain a loose monetary policy without hinting at further rate hikes. Additionally, the strength of the U.S. economy has kept the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. wide, leading to a continued decline in the yen.

What has been the historical impact of previous interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on the stock market?

Historically, the impact of interest rate hikes on the stock market has been mixed. In 2006, Japanese stocks rose by 20% after a rate hike, while in 2000, the Nikkei index fell by 30%. Interest rates are only one factor that affects the market, and other factors, such as economic prospects, play a more important role.

Why are investors not worried about the Bank of Japan stopping its ETF purchases?

The Bank of Japan has already significantly reduced its ETF purchases since last year, and the market has largely adjusted to this. Therefore, the formal announcement of stopping ETF purchases is not expected to have a major impact on the market.

What concerns do investors have about the Bank of Japan holding a large amount of Japanese stocks?

Investors are worried that when the Bank of Japan decides to sell the stocks it acquired through ETFs, it could negatively impact the stock prices of companies like Fast Retailing (parent of UNIQLO) and semiconductor companies such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron, where the Bank of Japan holds significant shares.

Why are foreign institutional investors still buying large amounts of Japanese stocks despite the interest rate hike?

Foreign investors are optimistic about Japan’s future economic prospects, citing reasons like stable inflation, rising wages, and corporate governance improvements. Additionally, Japanese stocks are seen as relatively cheap compared to U.S. stocks.

How does Japan’s current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio compare to the United States?

Japan's current P/E ratio is around 14 times, while the U.S. stock market has a P/E ratio of 20 times, indicating that Japanese stocks are cheaper in comparison.

What recent policy changes in Japan could drive further stock market growth?

The Japanese government has introduced policies to encourage domestic investors to buy stocks, which could create additional demand for the stock market.

How has Japan’s corporate governance improvement impacted stock valuations?

Japan’s improved corporate governance has gradually eliminated the discount that investors used to apply to Japanese stocks due to poor governance practices. As a result, stocks are returning closer to their true value, which has boosted valuations.

What are the broader economic implications of rising wages in Japan?

The recent wage increases in Japan, with an overall salary rise of 5.3%, are expected to boost consumer spending, which could stimulate the economy and contribute to GDP growth. This, in turn, is seen as a positive indicator for asset prices, including stocks and real estate.