A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here

Summary

Tom Lee assures investors of a 100% success rate in the stock market following a Fed rate cut in a non-recessionary economy. He warns of a turbulent market in the short term, advising against selling out. Lee predicts a strong rally towards the end of the year, with an average market increase of 15.4% within 12 months post rate cut. He emphasizes the importance of staying invested in quality companies like Nvidia and Apple, and advises against market timing due to its unpredictability.

Takeaways

• 📈 Tom believes the investment has a 100% success rate historically and advises not to miss out on it.
• 🚫 The speaker warns against taking immediate actions like buying or selling, emphasizing the importance of listening first.
• ⚠️ Tom is considered important for retail investors as he provides insights into market volatility and strategies for the next few months.
• 📉 The speaker anticipates a turbulent market in the short term, driven by factors like election uncertainty and smart money tactics.
• 💹 Historically, the stock market has shown positive returns when the Fed cuts rates in a non-recessionary economy.
• 🔍 The upcoming Fed meeting is highlighted as a key event that could influence market sentiment, with expectations of rate cuts.
• 📊 The speaker suggests that the market's reaction to the Fed's actions will be influenced by the messaging and semantics used by Fed officials.
• 🛑 The advice is to stay invested and not to be swayed by short-term market turbulence, which is a normal part of investing.
• 💼 The speaker recommends maintaining a balanced portfolio, including strong companies like Nvidia and Apple, through market cycles.
• 📉 Tom expects a challenging period ahead, particularly in the short term, but with a positive outlook for the market post-election and into 2024.

Q & A

What does Tomley claim about the success rate of the investment?

Tomley claims that this investment has a 100% success rate in the past, meaning it has never failed in history.

What is the primary warning Tomley issues to investors?

Tomley warns investors about a turbulent market environment in the next few weeks, which is likely designed by smart money to scare individual investors into selling before the market rallies.

What effect does Tomley predict the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts will have on the market?

Tomley predicts that once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates in a non-recession economy, the stock market will experience positive returns over the next 3, 6, 9, and 12 months.

Why does Tomley refer to the next few weeks as a 'head fake'?

Tomley refers to the next few weeks as a 'head fake' because he believes that the volatility and turbulence are temporary and designed to scare investors into selling before the market spikes up.

What metaphor does Tomley use to describe the upcoming market turbulence?

Tomley uses the metaphor of turbulence on a plane, explaining that while it will be uncomfortable, it won’t cause harm as long as investors stay calm and don’t make rash decisions.

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve’s messaging in the rate cuts, according to Tomley?

Tomley emphasizes that the Federal Reserve’s messaging, particularly how they signal the end of inflation-fighting and the start of a rate-cutting cycle, is crucial for influencing positive stock market reactions.

What advice does Tomley give regarding small-cap stocks?

Tomley suggests that small-cap stocks could perform very well over the next 12 months, but he advises investors not to sell major tech stocks like Nvidia or Tesla to go all-in on small-caps.

How does Tomley recommend investors approach the market during this turbulent period?

Tomley advises against trying to time the market, as the short-term volatility is unpredictable. He encourages investors to stay in the market and focus on long-term gains.

What is the projected market performance after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut?

Tomley projects that after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the market will yield an average return of 15.4% over the next 12 months, assuming the economy is not in a recession.

What does Tomley say about the market’s reaction in the first week after a rate cut?

Tomley notes that the first week after a rate cut is typically the worst week of the year for the market, due to misdirection and confusion caused by market forces.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Analysis and Tom Lee's Investment Insights

The speaker emphasizes the importance of Tom Lee's investment advice, highlighting the 100% success rate of a particular investment strategy. They stress the need to focus on the bottom line first, then analyze the market. The speaker plans to share Tom Lee's clip, followed by their own analysis and strategy for the next 3, 6, and 12 months. The key message is to beware of market turbulence caused by 'smart money' trying to scare individual investors into selling before a market upturn. The speaker asserts that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in a non-recession economy have historically led to positive stock market returns within a year, suggesting that investors should stay confident despite short-term discomfort.

05:01

✈️ Navigating Market Turbulence with Tom Lee's Guidance

The speaker uses the metaphor of airplane turbulence to illustrate the current market situation, advising investors to stay calm and not panic sell during market fluctuations. They discuss the Federal Reserve's impending rate cuts and the historical positive returns following such cuts in a non-recessionary economy. The speaker also touches on the importance of the Fed's messaging and how it will impact market sentiment. They caution against trying to time the market and emphasize the long-term strength of certain companies like Nvidia and Apple. The speaker concludes by offering a discounted rate to their Academy, tying it to the recent performance of the stock market.

10:03

📉 Preparing for Market Volatility and Economic Fundamentals

The speaker discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the potential market reactions to rate cuts. They emphasize that the market's short-term volatility is normal and part of investing. The speaker also addresses the broader economic indicators, such as unemployment rates, GDP, and inflation, which suggest a healthy economy despite some signs of consumer weakness. They reiterate Tom Lee's prediction of a market rally by the end of 2024 if the economy avoids recession, citing historical averages of market performance post-rate cut. The speaker advises against market timing and highlights the importance of understanding and accepting market turbulence as part of the investment process.

Keywords

💡Investment Success Rate

The investment success rate refers to the historical performance of an investment, indicating how often it has been profitable. In the video, Tomley claims a 100% success rate for a certain investment, suggesting it has never failed historically. This is a key point to attract investors, as it implies a guaranteed return, which is a central theme in the video's discussion about market analysis and investment strategy.

💡Smart Money

Smart money in finance typically refers to investments made by institutional investors or professional traders who are believed to have greater access to information and better analytical skills. The video discusses how 'smart money' might create market volatility to scare individual investors into selling, which is a strategy to 'weed out' less informed participants from the market.

💡Market Turbulence

Market turbulence refers to periods of high volatility and uncertainty in financial markets. The video script mentions that the upcoming weeks will be marked by turbulence, which is used to describe the expected market conditions. This concept is crucial as it sets the stage for the advice given to investors on how to navigate through such periods.

💡Rate Cuts

A rate cut is a monetary policy action taken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to lower interest rates with the aim of stimulating economic growth. The video discusses the implications of rate cuts, suggesting that they historically lead to positive market performance, which is a key point in the analysis of the market's future direction.

💡Seasonality

Seasonality in finance refers to the tendency of certain market behaviors to repeat at specific times of the year. The video mentions using market seasonality to increase market volatility, which is a strategy employed by 'smart money' to influence investor behavior during certain periods, such as before elections.

💡Election Uncertainty

Election uncertainty refers to the unpredictability in financial markets due to upcoming elections and the potential changes in policy that may follow. The video highlights this as a factor that could contribute to market fluctuations, as investors may react to the uncertainty by adjusting their portfolios.

💡Head Fake

In the context of the video, a head fake refers to a deceptive market movement intended to trick investors into making poor decisions. The script warns viewers about an upcoming 'head fake' that might make the market seem worse than it is, which is a metaphor for the temporary downturns that could be misleading for investors.

💡Non-Recessionary Economy

A non-recessionary economy is one that is not in a state of recession, characterized by positive GDP growth, low unemployment, and other indicators of economic health. The video emphasizes that in a non-recessionary economy, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have historically led to positive stock market returns, which is a central argument for a bullish market outlook.

💡Small Caps

Small cap refers to stocks of companies with a relatively small market capitalization. The video suggests that small cap stocks could perform well in the next 12 months, indicating a belief in the potential for higher growth and returns from these companies compared to larger, more established ones.

💡Market Timing

Market timing is the act of making investment decisions based on predictions of short-term market movements. The video discourages market timing, arguing that it is difficult to predict and can lead to poor investment decisions. Instead, the speaker advocates for a long-term investment strategy, which is a recurring theme throughout the discussion.

💡Macro Data

Macro data refers to large-scale economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, and inflation. The video uses macro data to argue that the economy is not in a recession and to support the argument for a positive market outlook. Understanding macro data is crucial for investors to make informed decisions, as it provides a broad view of economic health.

Highlights

Tomley claims the investment has a 100% success rate and has never failed in history.

The importance of Tomley's insights for retail investors, as he provides a warning about market volatility.

Smart money may use market seasonality and election uncertainty to create fear among individual investors.

The Federal Reserve is starting to cut rates, which historically has not resulted in stock market losses in the next 12 months.

The speaker shares historical data showing positive stock market performance after rate cuts in a non-recession economy.

The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide market confidence with expected rate cuts.

The speaker advises against trying to time the market based on short-term volatility.

Tomley metaphorically compares market turbulence to turbulence on a plane, emphasizing the importance of staying invested.

The message from the Fed is crucial for the market's understanding of the economic direction.

The stock market is said to be 6 to 12 months ahead of the actual economy, indicating future trends.

Tomley almost guarantees a turbulent September but advises against selling out and buying back in later.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of owning the best companies in the most important themes, like Nvidia and Apple.

Tomley suggests that small-cap stocks could do very well in the next 12 months.

The speaker offers a special deal on his Academy at a discounted price to celebrate a company's new price target.

The speaker discusses the potential market reactions to the Fed's decision on rate cuts.

Fundamentals are expected to win in the long term, with the economy and stock market performing well if not in recession.

The speaker highlights the statistical fact that the stock market experiences significant drops but is part of the normal cycle.

Tomley's bottom line is that despite challenges, the market is expected to rally by the end of 2024 if the economy is not in recession.

Transcripts

Tomley just said that this investment

has a 100% success rate literally that

this investment has never failed in

history that's something you don't want

to miss out on now look in all of my

videos the rule is the same bottom line

first then the analysis so I'm going to

give away the bottom line first then

I'll show you the clip of Tom Le saying

what he said then I'll share with you my

analysis and my strategy for the next 3

6 and 12 months in the market given what

we just learned now look the bottom line

comes after this short message don't

click nothing don't smash nothing don't

buy nothing just listen now look the

bottom line Tom is very important for R

investors more than so-called smart

money because he's basically issuing to

you a warning giving away the you know

the most known secret in the industry

saying look this volatile environment

this turbulent environment you're going

to experience in the next few weeks it's

going to be painful it's going to be

uncomfortable and a lot of it is going

to be design by the smart money

so-called smart money to weed out and

get the individual investors to get

scared and sell out before the market

spikes up they're going to use the

seasonality of the market they're going

to use the election uncertainty to

actually get the Flames higher so you

will get scared and sell out because

what they don't want you to understand

is that the FED is starting to cut rates

and whenever the FED has started to cut

rates and went into a cutting cyle cycle

in a non recession economy which is what

we have today 100% of the time you

didn't lose money in the stock market

over the next 12 months not also the

next N9 months 6 months and 3 months

every single stop in that year has been

positive I'll share with you the numbers

in a second but basically Tomley is

saying Beware of the head fake that is

the next few weeks it's going to be very

uncomfortable but it's going to be just

a head fake before the market rallies

towards November December do not be

fooled do not be gaslighted by

mainstream media and smart money I mean

I think if viewers are sort of confused

I think that's what the next 8 weeks are

going to be like into election day I I

think it's a very challenging period

because no one can have conviction until

they really know who's in the white

house but uh there are some positive

sort of supports coming into play and

next week is the Fed meeting um we know

the FED is going to make some cuts and

with the inflation data being supportive

and the labor markets needing some

support I I think it's going to give the

in the market some confidence a 25 or 50

has both hawkish or doish implications

right so I think it's ultimately WEA fed

share Powell comes across as this is the

start of a cycle where they're confident

that we're moving back towards neutral

and whatever number they make is

actually quite dovish and positive

markets perspective I think that they'd

like to see the FED sort of acknowledge

that inflation is moving back as a

secondary concern and labor market

supporting labor markets while not in a

recession is incredibly important I

think in the near term we're losing

visibility and you know when when you

don't have visibility people get scared

and they sit on their hands but over the

next 12 months I think investors should

be pretty confident when the FED has cut

rates while in a soft Landing or no

Landing the win ratio or Market's higher

6 months 9 months 12 months later Almost

100% and we also know postelection

markets almost always rally so the

November December looks pretty good and

I think the policies of both candidates

is good enough for markets to do well

next year so I I I think we might have

turbulence now but it it looks pretty

good after that I think you you still

always want to own the best companies in

the most important themes I mean that's

Nvidia and that's Apple

um and they're going to really work over

any cycle but when the market begins to

believe the FED is going

to move rates back towards neutral and

that's both cost of money mortgages auto

loan

rates you know these are really big

Tailwinds for cyclical stocks and small

caps in particular so I think that's why

I'd still want to make a very educated

bet with high probability that small cap

could do very well the next 12 months

and even between now and your end now

what Tom essentially is saying here is

saying look folks the next few weeks are

going to be like turbulence on a plane

if you have your seat belt on and you

understand that no plane in history has

went down because of turbulence you're

not going to get hurt all it's going to

be is uncomfortable and unpleasant but

if you're working around the galley un

seat belted you're going to be flung

into the ceiling and you get badly badly

hurt understand the turbulent is coming

wear your seat buil mentally emotionally

and then prepare for it and understand

that the plane is not crashing there's

no point in jumping out of the plane now

this is a very important metaphor to

understand what's actually going on in

the market right now we will have a lot

of uncertainty a lot of turbulence but

at the end of the day the Federal

Reserve is about to start a rate cutting

cycle in a non recessionary economy so

basically this means that once the stock

market realizes and believes and

understands that the Federal Reserve is

serious about cutting rates and this

rate cutting cycle is going to happen in

a non recessionary economy the stock

market will price in what happened in

history in every single time this

scenario came up and then every single

time that this scenario has happened the

stock market gave us positive returns in

3 6 9 and 12 months after the First Rate

cut it's not about the 25 points the 50

basis points it's not about that it's

about a signal that the FED is going to

send Bend to the mainstream media which

is going to convey it to the public

which then will translate to price

action in the stock market telling

everybody hey folks we are now no longer

fighting inflation the restrictions are

over and we're heading down to

3% that's the message the FED has to

send whether they do it with a 25 basis

points cut or 50 basis point cuts out of

the gate it doesn't matter what matters

is this message comes out and the FED

does not screw it up and the language

and the semantics they use to explain

what just happened when drum PA will

speak every single word of his will be

important to convey that message it's

very important think about it like the

bouncer in the club if the bouncer in

the club cares itself in the fashion

that nobody wants to go Toe to Toe with

that guy nobody wants to fight that guy

he's scary right if he holds himself up

in that standard he's never going to be

in a single fight but if he behaves like

a little noodle he's going to be

challenge so the fed's job right now is

to be a bouncer and to show the market

hey everything is okay the economy is

fine we're no longer fighting inflation

we're heading to 3% that will signal to

the stock market to price that as a

future pricing mechanism the stock

market is always 6 to 12 months ahead of

the actual economy and if that's the

case the stock market is going to be in

a positive trend for the next 12 months

and before everybody starts buying new

cars and new houses you know new Lambos

hold on a second when he says 100% he

doesn't mean 100% % literally he means

100% when the economy is good there is

no guarantees that the economy is good

we think it's good we think we're not a

recession but usually we find out that a

recession happened way after the fact so

that's all assuming the economy is not

currently in a recession but yeah

officially right now we're not in

recession GDP numbers are good

unemployment is coming down inflation is

coming down consumer spending is good so

on paper we should be good but in like

there's no guarantees now another thing

that Tomley is almost guaranteeing is

saying look whatever happens the next

few weeks will be turbulent September

isn't going to be great no matter how

you spend this so prepare for a very bad

September now do I think that you should

sell out and buy later in October

November no and I'll tell you why

because in the short term there's no way

to know how the market is going to swing

the market can stay crazy and irrational

way longer than you can stay solvent and

to try and time the market and get it

perfectly the bottom and the top it's a

futile effort that doesn't work and it's

a really bad habit to build so don't be

timing the market because of something

that Tom has said now he also says look

I know I spoke a lot about small caps

and we think that small caps is the next

best thing since sliced bread I totally

understand it but he also says look

folks we don't mean you should sell your

Nvidia and your Tesla and all your great

stocks and your paler you definitely

want to own these regardless don't be

going all in on iwm selling out of your

your entire portfolio that's not what I

meant you see a lot of these great

companies that's exactly what Tom Le

also said here these great companies

long term are unbeatable what you want

to be is in the market look at paler

paler was at $10 when it DPO then it

went up to $35 then it went down to $6

went up again right now to $37 so this

crazy Riot is going to happen do you

really think you're that good to time it

perfectly the shortterm volatility in

the market it makes no sense to jump in

and out in in and out trying to time

this it is a futile stupid exercise and

if you play stupid games you will win I

guarantee you that stupid prizes now

talking about not stupid prizes paler

has hit $36 and I want to offer you

something cool since paler is currently

at $36 I'm going to give you access to

my Academy which is usually $99 per

month at $36 right now for the next 24

hours to celebrate piner's new price

Target 36 bucks right now for the next

24 hours pm.com NES join the academy

test it out try out see if it's for you

we actually have our upcoming meeting

this Thursday we learned about how to do

DCA how to do modeling like DCF when to

sell a stock when to buy a stock how to

evaluate stocks all that good stuff and

look volatility isn't going to go away

it's even going to happen this week look

at tomorrow tomorrow the FED might shock

the world tomorrow 2 pm the FED will

announce how much they're cutting and

right now everybody pricing in 50 basis

points look at the FED CME watch tool

now imagine the FED comes out and does a

25 basis point cut and that kind of

decision might send the market actually

tumbling down or maybe up who knows

maybe Jerome PO says something crazy

that does the same thing but eventually

what Tom Lee is saying in this video and

I could not agree more the fundamentals

will win which basically means economy

not bad economy getting more money

cheaper money economy good stock market

good all of this whatever joh PO said

how much Cuts they've done this month or

next month all of this is irrelevant

because longterm we're talking about a

process that's a positive process for

the economy and the stock market

assuming we're not already in a

recession and whatever happens the

market is never going to feel smooth

I've told you about this multiple times

before we have 5% drops in the S&P 500

three times per year we have 10% drops

once per year and every three years we

have a 15% drop look at the data right

now we just came off of an8 and a half%

drop and a 4.3% drop just in the last

few weeks this is insane we had a really

smooth first half with no turbulence and

now we're basically making up for lost

time it just means that you cannot be in

the stock market without understanding

the turbulence is part of the game good

news it's normal bad news it's normal

it's nothing to get excited about when

the market has the first half as strong

as the first half we had this year the

second half is a 10% half with 11 and 12

November and December being the best

month and August and September being the

worst it's a statistical fact now

whatever the outcome is nobody knows

some people say well Tom the credit card

delinquency numbers are up you know the

prices are up people are struggling

there's a lot of consumer weakness

that's hidden beyond the data and yes I

totally understand but on the other hand

you can't ignore macro data unemployment

is coming down below 4.5% GDP is a 3%

and inflation is a 2.5% it's very hard

to say that in this environment we're

going to cook up a recession now nobody

knows for sure but there's definitely

clear strong arguments in both ways and

since we cannot predict this and time

this we have to be careful with our

choices now look Tom Le's kind of bottom

line here just to kind of recap things

it's very simple saying look the next

eight weeks will be challenging the FED

is coming off restrictive rates the

economy is not a recession by the end of

2024 we're going to see a big rally now

how much of rally he actually br the

data look 3 months average in this

scenario is

8.6% 6month average is 13.2% and

12-month average is

15.4% so basically Tomley is saying that

from the First Rate cut we're about to

see in you know 24 hours or so the

market on average does 15.4% if the

economy is not in recession I take that

that's not a bad thing he also actually

said that the first week after cut is

usually the worst week of the entire

year after the the cut which just

exactly shows you how much of of this

misdirection and head fakes in the stock

market is designed kind of confus the

individual investors that's why this

channel exists thanks so much I'll see

you in the next one