什麼時候賣股票?聊聊我的經歷和三個思維模型

Summary

The video script narrates the speaker's personal experience with stock investments, highlighting the power of long-term holding through the example of a $10,000 investment in Tesla that grew to $188,000. The speaker shares three thought models for selling stocks based on their experiences: matching the reason for selling with the reason for buying, minimizing regret through clear decision-making and planning, and prioritizing life's overall financial stability over market gains. The script emphasizes the importance of understanding one's investment philosophy and managing life's larger financial game to make informed decisions in the stock market.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker emphasizes the power of long-term holding, as demonstrated by their investment in Tesla which grew significantly over four years without any intervention.
• 💡 The concept of 'Our favorite holding period is forever' is mentioned, highlighting the value of holding onto stocks for the long term, as advocated by Warren Buffett.
• 🤔 The speaker admits to having sold stocks in the past, but each time for a clear and well-considered reason, suggesting that selling should be a deliberate decision rather than a reaction.
• 🏦 The video features a sponsorship by Interactive Brokers, which is praised for its low fees and competitive currency exchange rates, especially beneficial for the speaker as a Canadian investor.
• 💰 The speaker shares three thought models for selling stocks based on personal experience: matching selling with buying reasons, minimizing regret, and considering the bigger financial picture outside the stock market.
• 🧐 The importance of understanding one's investment philosophy is stressed, as it dictates the selling strategy. For instance, long-term investors may not need to rebalance or use stop-loss tactics.
• 📈 The speaker's personal selling principles are shared: selling when in need of money, when a company's fundamentals change, or when a better investment opportunity arises.
• 🏠 An example is given where the speaker sold Tesla stocks to invest in an Airbnb property, demonstrating a strategy of diversification and seeking different kinds of investments.
• 🤷‍♂️ The speaker warns against the influence of trading terminology on long-term investors, advising to avoid adopting short-term trading concepts that may not align with one's investment goals.
• 🚫 The principle of minimizing regret is introduced, suggesting that acknowledging uncertainty and considering all possibilities can help in making decisions that one will not regret later.
• 🌐 The final thought model suggests that the health of one's overall financial situation and life outside the stock market is more important and can influence decisions within the market.

Q & A

What was the initial investment and the outcome of the Tesla stock purchase made by the speaker on June 19, 2019?

The speaker initially invested $10,000 in Tesla stock, buying 48 shares at $211 per share. By June 30, 2023, the investment had grown to $188,000 due to a stock split that turned the 48 shares into 720 shares.

What is the speaker's view on the ideal time to sell stocks?

The speaker believes that ideally, one should never have to sell stocks, echoing Warren Buffett's philosophy that 'Our favorite holding period is forever.' However, the speaker acknowledges that this is not practical for everyone and that stocks are eventually meant to be sold.

How many times has the speaker sold stocks in their 9 years of being in the stock market, and what is their selling principle?

The speaker has sold stocks about 6 times in 9 years. They have a clear reason each time they sell and have never regretted their decisions. Their selling principles are based on their own experiences and include selling when they really need money, when a company's fundamentals change, or when there is a better or different kind of investment opportunity.

Why did the speaker choose to transfer all their TSLA stock into Interactive Brokers?

The speaker chose Interactive Brokers for two main reasons: the platform has low fees, often operating without any commission fees or with fees so low they hardly affect the investment, and it offers competitive currency exchange rates, which is beneficial for the speaker as they often buy U.S. stocks from Canada.

What is the speaker's first thought model for selling stocks, and how does it relate to the investor's profile?

The speaker's first thought model for selling stocks is that the reason for selling should match the reason for buying. This depends on the type of investor one is; for example, a long-term investor in index funds might need to sell regularly to rebalance, whereas a short-term trader might sell based on stop-loss and take-profit strategies.

What is the significance of the language and terminology used by investors, and how can it influence their decisions?

The language and terminology used by investors can significantly influence their thinking and decision-making. For instance, terms like 'stop-loss' and 'take-profit' are more commonly used by frequent traders and can subconsciously prompt long-term investors to adopt strategies that are not aligned with their investment philosophy.

Can you provide an example of the speaker's selling decision based on minimizing regret?

The speaker sold some of their Tesla stocks in 2020 to invest in an Airbnb property in the Canadian Rockies. They made this decision based on several factors, including the concentration of their investments in Tesla, the opportunity presented by the pandemic's impact on real estate prices, and the tax-free nature of their Canadian account. They prepared for various scenarios to minimize regret.

What is the principle of minimizing regret, and how can investors apply it to their selling decisions?

The principle of minimizing regret involves acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in stock movements after selling and making decisions based on this understanding. Investors should consider all possibilities and avoid the least acceptable ones, set clear selling conditions, and possibly conduct a sandbox simulation to prepare for every situation.

What is the speaker's third thought model for selling stocks, and why is it important?

The speaker's third thought model is the principle that 'outside the market being more important than inside the market.' It emphasizes that investors should manage their overall life and finances well, ensuring a good margin of safety outside the stock market. This perspective can lead to more rational decisions within the stock market and a better management of one's overall wealth.

How does the speaker interpret the saying 'The best holding period is forever' in the context of stock investments?

The speaker interprets 'The best holding period is forever' as a suggestion to maintain a long-term perspective on investments but also to ensure that the stock market is not the primary source of one's wealth. It implies that having a diversified portfolio with a significant portion of wealth outside the stock market can provide a larger margin of safety and reduce the pressure to sell stocks.