PM Lee at the 27th International Conference on the Future of Asia

Summary

The speaker emphasizes Asia's potential for growth, highlighted by a young and dynamic population, with China and India leading economic expansion. Japan and Southeast Asia also contribute significantly to the region's prosperity. However, geopolitical challenges, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and US-China tensions, threaten stability. The speaker calls for collective security, economic cooperation, and a balanced regional architecture to ensure peace and shared prosperity, urging Asian nations to learn from Europe's strategic reassessment post-Ukraine and to foster an environment conducive to growth and cooperation.

Takeaways

• 🌏 **Asia's Potential**: Asia is a vibrant region with over half of the world's population, offering enormous potential for growth and development.
• 🇨🇳 **China's Economic Impact**: China is the world's second-largest economy, largest manufacturing economy, and fastest-growing consumer market.
• 🇮🇳 **India's Demographic Dividend**: India's young population is driving growth and represents a significant demographic dividend.
• 🌐 **Japan's Contribution**: Japan has been a key contributor to Asia's growth through foreign investments, technology transfers, and regional imports.
• 🌉 **Southeast Asia's Growth**: Southeast Asia, with a large, youthful population, is the 5th largest economy in the world and is growing steadily.
• 📉 **Global Predictions**: A pre-pandemic report predicted Asia to account for more than half of global GDP and drive 40% of the world's consumption by 2040.
• ⚔️ **Geopolitical Challenges**: The world is divided, and realizing Asia's potential is challenging due to geopolitical developments like Russia's attack on Ukraine and US-China tensions.
• 🏰 **European Lessons**: Asian countries should learn from Europe's experience, particularly regarding over-dependence on Russia for energy and the need for strategic reassessment.
• 🔒 **Regional Security**: Countries should strengthen collective security beyond alliances, engaging with potential adversaries to reduce mistrust and manage incidents.
• 💼 **Economic Cooperation**: Economic cooperation is essential for regional stability, and countries should avoid extreme measures that could precipitate conflict.
• 🌱 **ASEAN's Role**: ASEAN plays a significant role in regional architecture, fostering integration and interdependence through various forums and mechanisms.

Q & A

What is the significance of Asia's demographic characteristics for its economic potential?

Asia's population is not only the largest in the world but also predominantly young, full of energy and dynamism, which suggests a significant potential for economic growth and development.

How does China's economic status contribute to Asia's overall economic landscape?

China is the world's second-largest economy, the largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods, and the fastest-growing consumer market, playing a pivotal role in driving Asia's economic growth.

What is the demographic dividend that India is expected to experience, and how will it impact its economy?

India is home to a fifth of the world's young population, which is expected to drive economic growth for many years due to the demographic dividend, as a large, youthful workforce can contribute to productivity and consumption.

What role has Japan played in Asia's growth, and how does it continue to contribute?

Japan has been a key contributor to Asia's growth through its foreign investments, technology transfers, and imports from the region, and it continues to play a significant role as a major advanced economy.

How does Southeast Asia's population and economic status contribute to the global economy?

With a population of 650 million, 60% of whom are below the age of 35, and a combined GDP of US$3 trillion, Southeast Asia is collectively the 5th largest economy in the world and is growing steadily, contributing significantly to the global economy.

What was the prediction made by McKinsey in 2019 regarding Asia's future economic contribution to the world?

McKinsey predicted in 2019 that Asia was on track to account for more than half of global GDP and to drive 40% of the world's consumption by 2040.

What are the two important geopolitical developments mentioned that pose challenges to Asia's potential?

The two geopolitical developments are Russia's attack on Ukraine, which poses a major threat to the global order, and the difficult relations between the US and China, which directly affect the Asia Pacific region.

How should Asian countries respond to the challenges posed by the divided world to ensure peace and stability?

Asian countries should learn from the European experience, avoid mis-steps that raise tensions, and work together to maintain peace and stability in the region, reducing the likelihood of conflicts.

What is the significance of the US-China rivalry for the Asia Pacific region, and what are the potential consequences?

The US-China rivalry is manifesting itself in Asia and could lead to further bifurcation of technology, splitting of supply chains, or even worse unintended consequences if relations continue on the current path.

How can countries in Asia work together to strengthen collective security and avoid an arms race?

Countries in Asia should work together to strengthen collective security beyond forming alliances and formal groupings, through engagement and confidence-building arrangements with potential adversaries.

What is the importance of economic cooperation in maintaining regional stability and security in Asia?

Economic cooperation is crucial as countries with stakes in each other's economic success have a greater incentive to work together, overcome problems, and maintain regional stability and security.