Lay Over 3.5 Goals Strategy @Kick-Off | Full Tutorial Using Sports-IQ Filters
Summary
TLDRIn this video, 'Trading the Market' revisits the popular 'Lay Over 3.5 Goals' strategy with a new twist, showcasing how to use Sports IQ's filtering system to identify optimal matches for this strategy. The strategy involves laying over 3.5 goals before kickoff at odds between 3.0 to 4.0 and trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored. The presenter discusses the transparency of their involvement with Sports IQ and emphasizes the continued availability of free resources. The video also highlights the effectiveness of the strategy with data from expert traders, demonstrating a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53% over 5,770 matches.
Takeaways
- 📈 The video revisits a popular trading strategy with an added twist: the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy.
- 🔍 The strategy involves using a powerful filtering system on Sports IQ to find the best matches for trading.
- 💡 The 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy is simple: lay over 3.5 goals before kickoff at odds between 3.0 and 4.0, and trade out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored.
- ⚽ The strategy focuses on football matches where both the home and away teams have a low likelihood of scoring in the first 10 minutes.
- 📊 The video demonstrates how to set up filters on Sports IQ to identify matches that fit the strategy's criteria.
- 💼 The video addresses the relationship between Trading the Market and Sports IQ, clarifying that while some team members have invested, the two entities remain separate.
- 💰 The strategy has been successfully executed by two individuals, Johnb UK and MK Cooper, who have shared their profit and loss details over four years.
- 📉 The backtesting tool on Sports IQ is used to analyze the strategy's effectiveness, showing a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53%.
- 📋 The video provides a step-by-step guide on how to set up and use the filters on Sports IQ for the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy.
- 🌐 The strategy is applicable across various leagues and can be adjusted to fit different trading styles and preferences.
Q & A
What is the main strategy discussed in the video?
-The main strategy discussed in the video is the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy, which involves laying over 3.5 goals before a football match starts, trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored, aiming for a profit as the odds drift.
What is the role of Sports IQ in this strategy?
-Sports IQ is used as a platform to find the best matches to apply the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. It provides a powerful filtering system to identify suitable matches based on specific criteria.
Why did members of the Trading the Market team invest in Sports IQ?
-Members of the Trading the Market team invested in Sports IQ because they saw the opportunity to be part of a platform they use and believe provides unparalleled value for money.
How does the presenter address concerns about the relationship between Trading the Market and Sports IQ?
-The presenter clarifies that despite some team members owning shares in Sports IQ, Trading the Market remains a separate entity, and the free resources available on their website will continue to be offered at no cost.
What are the specific criteria for selecting matches in the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy?
-The criteria include selecting matches where both the home and away teams have scored or conceded less than 10% of their goals in the first 10 minutes of matches, and the odds for over 3.5 goals at kickoff are between 3.0 and 4.0.
How do you trade out according to the strategy?
-You trade out after 10 minutes of the match if no goals are scored, aiming for a profit as the odds have drifted. Some traders may choose to leg out of their position incrementally as odds drift or trade out after a specific tick movement in odds.
What is the importance of the 'timings 10 minutes' filter in the strategy?
-The 'timings 10 minutes' filter is crucial as it focuses on the away team's performance from minute 1 to 10, and the same for the home team, to identify matches where early goals are less likely.
What is the significance of the odds range of 3.0 to 4.0 in the strategy?
-The odds range of 3.0 to 4.0 is considered the 'sweet spot' where the market and traders are uncertain about the number of goals, allowing for potential value and profit.
What does the backtesting tool in Sports IQ reveal about the strategy's effectiveness?
-The backtesting tool shows that out of 5,770 matches analyzed, 4,643 matches were successful with no goals in the first 10 minutes, resulting in a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53%.
How does the presenter suggest traders approach live trading of the strategy?
-The presenter suggests traders only trade matches they can watch live and to be patient, waiting for sufficient data from European leagues before applying the strategy.
Outlines
🔍 Introduction to the Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy
The video begins with a discussion on revisiting a popular trading strategy with an added twist, known as the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. The presenter introduces the use of Sports IQ's filtering system to identify suitable matches for this strategy. They address concerns about a potential conflict of interest due to team members owning shares in Sports IQ, clarifying that Trading the Market remains a separate entity and continues to offer free resources. The strategy's origin is credited to two successful traders, 'johnb UK' and 'MK Cooper', and the video promises to guide viewers on how to implement this strategy using Sports IQ.
📊 Strategy Details and Backtesting Results
This paragraph delves into the specifics of the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy, which involves laying bets on over 3.5 goals before a football match starts, with specific odds ranges, and trading out after the first 10 minutes if no goals are scored. The strategy's criteria are outlined, focusing on teams with a low likelihood of scoring early goals. The video demonstrates how to use Sports IQ's backtesting tool to analyze the strategy's effectiveness, showing a high success rate based on historical data. It also discusses the strategy's real-world application by trader 'John', who has achieved significant profits over four years, and emphasizes the importance of disciplined trading and market selection.
🛠️ Applying Filters and Strategy Execution
The final paragraph guides viewers on how to apply filters within Sports IQ to find matches that fit the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. It explains the process of manually verifying odds on betting platforms and using the platform's tools to streamline the selection process. The video concludes with a demonstration of how to review and evaluate potential matches using the applied filters, and it encourages viewers to use the strategy with confidence. The presenter, James, reminds viewers to wait for sufficient data before applying the strategy and invites feedback for future video content, emphasizing the importance of a disciplined approach to trading.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy
💡Sports IQ
💡Laying
💡Trading Out
💡Cash Out Sum
💡Controlled Loss
💡Filters
💡Back Testing
💡Strike Rate
💡Odds Range
Highlights
Introduction to the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal' strategy with an added twist.
Demonstration of using Sports IQ's filtering system to find optimal matches for the strategy.
Disclosure of the Trade the Market team's investment in Sports IQ and the maintenance of free content.
Emphasis on the transparency of the team's involvement in Sports IQ and the continued availability of free resources.
Acknowledgment of the strategy's originators, Johnb UK and MK Cooper, and their significant contributions.
Explanation of the strategy's simple premise: laying over 3.5 goals before kickoff within specific odds ranges.
Details on trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored, aiming for a controlled loss if a goal is scored early.
Criteria for the strategy include games played, timing filters for early goal likelihood, and manual odds verification.
Use of Sports IQ's backtesting tool to experiment with different thresholds and find the most effective settings.
John's personal strategy and profit details shared, showcasing a total profit of £23,268.8 over four years.
Analysis of John's staking strategy changes and their impact on profit margins.
Discussion on the importance of disciplined trading and careful market selection for strategy success.
Reinforcement of the strategy's effectiveness with a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53% over a large sample size.
Guidance on how to set up filters on Sports IQ for the strategy and review potential matches.
Advice on waiting for sufficient data before applying the strategy to ensure accuracy.
Encouragement for viewers to engage with the content by liking, subscribing, and suggesting future video topics.
Closing remarks by James, summarizing the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goals at Kickoff' strategy and wishing viewers successful trading.
Transcripts
[Music]
welcome back to trading the market in
today's video we're revisiting one of
our most popular strategies with an
added twist the lay over 3.5 goal
strategy I'll also be showing you how to
use the powerful filtering system on
Sports IQ to find the best lay over 3.5
matches to trade on this will be the
first of many strategy videos showing
you how to create your own strategy
filters to build your own strategies or
you can just follow along with the
filters we will be sharing before I dive
in let me address the elephant in the
room as previously stated trading the
market does not own sports IQ however as
of the 15th of August this year four
members of the trade in the market team
have purchased shes in sports IQ all at
different levels of investment so yes
there are four of us who have a Varian
stake but trading the market is still a
separate entity if you can't get your
head around that fact then that is
purely your own problem it doesn't stop
me from talking about it in a video
though the opportunity to be a part of
sports IQ was not taken lightly we've
always stated that trading the market is
free and this remains true today the
daily sheets our powerful downloadable
spreadsheet all the online data on the
website and all the training videos are
still available to you as always at no
cost whatsoever the chance to be
involved in owning and further
developing the platform was too big a
draw to resist after all we use the
platform ourselves and believe it
provides unparallel value for money for
those questioning this decision we
understand there is a general consensus
that professional Traders should
primarily earn a living from Trading
however we all have our own various
businesses and jobs outside of trading
in should we give those up to not a
chance I love my
taxi it's a free country and people can
earn a living as they see fit at least
we are being transparent with our
viewers and followers about our
involvement ultimately it's up to you
the consumer if you wish to purchase
Sports IQ and use all of its powerful
tools the free data remains available on
the TTM website and always will be
free now that we've cleared that up
let's get back to the strategy the added
twist I mentioned earlier isn't my
creation it comes from Two Gentlemen who
have developed an executed this strategy
with great success over many years so a
big shout out to johnb UK and MK Cooper
absolute Legends of the community some
people even think they're the same
person and I can assure you they're not
but I'll leave that for you to decide
here at tradeing the market we've
recreated the bases of their strategy
and implemented it into sports IQ so
what is the strategy well it's very
simple we are laying over 3.5 goals
before a football match kicks off we
will only lay in an odds range of 3.0 to
4.0 at kickoff and we will be trading
out after 10 minutes of the match have
been played as the odds drift over the
course of the 10 minutes this will leave
us with an increasing Cash Out sum
providing there were no goals scored by
either team in the specified time if a
goal scored in the first 10 minutes then
we will trade out for a controlled loss
as soon as possible there are multiple
ways to exit your position some like to
leave the whole St in the trade for the
full 10 minutes some choose to leg out
of their position by backing in
increments as the odds begin to drift
out in the case of John and Mark they
choose to trade out after the price has
drifted by 12 tick movements and if the
price has not drifted by 12 Ticks by the
10 minute point they will trade out for
whatever profit is being offered at that
moment it's a very simple strategy if
the rules are followed and you keep your
discipline in every trade the criteria
for the strategy is as follows first up
is the games played GP filter which is
automatically set to show teams that
have played over eight games in the
current season this gives us a
substantial sample size to accurately
assess the team's form next we're using
the timings 10 minutes filter set the
filter to look at the away team's
performance from minute 1 to minute 10
we want to focus on matches where the
away away team has scored or conceded
less than 10% of their goals during this
period this indicates a low likelihood
of early goals finally apply the same
timings 10 minutes filter for the home
team again set the filter to show teams
that have scored or conceded less than
10% of their goals in the first 10
minutes of the match this ensures both
teams are less likely to break the
deadlock early making it a prime
candidate for The Layover 3.5 goal Str y
you can adjust these percentage values
to suit your trading style Sports iq's
back testing tool allows you to
experiment with different thresholds to
see what works for you but for this
video we'll stick to the values I
personally use which have proven to be
effective over time and finally within
the filtering you will then need to
manually head over to bfer and cross
check the over 3.5 goals market and make
sure the odds are sat between 3.0 and
4.0 this will ensure you are finding
matches that match your criteria and sit
within the odds range odds between 3.0
and 4.0 I have found to be The Sweet
Spot to gain value as the odds are at
such a level that the markets and
Traders are not sure if there will be
over or under 3.5 goals within the match
and with the data and our criteria we
can then carve an edge and take a profit
long term from within this specific
market now that we've set up our filters
let's head over to the back testing page
to see what kind of strike rate we can
achieve with the settings first ensure
that all leagues are selected to give us
a comprehensive data set we're focusing
on Match goals specifically looking at
the period between minute 1 and minute
10 next add the filter for any results
under 0.5 goals this will focus on games
where no goals were scored in the first
10 minutes the next step is
incorporating historical odds we want to
include historical odds in our test so
click use pre-match odds set the filter
for the over 3.5 m Market with odds over
3.0 and add a second filter for the over
3.5 Market with odds under 4.0 once all
the parameters are in place click run
back testing and let the tool process
the
data so as you can see the tool analyzed
5,770 matches based on our filters out
of these
4,643 matches were successful meaning no
goals were scor scored in the first 10
minutes and
1,127 matches failed so a goal was
scored within the first 10 minutes this
results in a strike rate of
8.47% and a failure rate of
19.53% as this is John strategy let's
delve deeper into the data John
generously shared his profit and loss
details from using the layover 3.5 goal
strategy over the past 4 years which
provides an insightful look at its
Effectiveness the spreadsheet covers his
trades from July 1st 2020 to the present
day showcasing a total of 809 selections
during this time John has profited 23,
268 and8 from this single strategy the
data includes various key metrics such
as the league the match details the
market you traded in the lay ODS the
amount sted or liability and the
duration of each trade John's approach
focuses on laying over 3.5 or over 4.5
goals for the first 10 minutes of a
match trading out either when 12 ticks
are reached in odds or at the 10-minute
Mark whichever comes first in some cases
he also backs the under 3.5 or under 4.5
markets depending on where the value lay
he tracks his p&l for each trade
including hedge profits and losses the
timing of the goals and the final score
his disciplined approach to hedging out
of the market before too much risk is
introduced has led to a consistent
accumulation of profit it's important to
note that John staking strategy changed
considerably on October 23rd 2021 from
that day onwards he used a reduced
liability of
£50 for both back tolay and latto back
trades this means that approximately
£18,500 of the total profit was earned
with large Stakes during the first 15
months the profit from October 23rd 2021
to the present day is 4,373
reflecting the reduced stakes and
smaller profits per game which range
from £10
to15 additionally John's earlier
approach was less strict with some
trades running closer to the 15-minute
Mark whereas he now aders to a 10-minute
cut off though recent trades
occasionally have extended to 12 minutes
and Beyond due to VA decisions and odds
readjustments this detailed
documentation showing trades across
various leagues and selections
reinforces the strategy success over the
long term and highlights the value of
disciplined trading and careful Market
selection it's also worth noting that
John only trades games he can watch live
on Sky Sports TNT Sports and terrestrial
channels like ITV and BBC he does not
trade many games per week so using this
strategy with our filters you will
achieve a strike rate of 80.4 7% and a
failure rate of
19.53% on the day of recording the video
over a sample size of 5 1,770 matches
this demonstrates the potential of
laying over 3.5 goals at kickoff when
applied without a specific criteria if
you are choosing to leg out of your
position every few minutes obviously
this will affect the figures I'm sharing
but as a blanket 10-minute trade the
numbers do not lie so going back to the
strategy page once you've set up your
filters the games that meet your
criteria will be displayed below take
your time to review these matches next
to each game you'll find a direct link
to beter clicking this link will take
you straight to the relevant league on
beter where you can quickly navigate to
the desired football match next to the
BET faur icon is a link to the stats
page to dive even deeper into even more
stats for the fixture and on the right
hand side you'll see the numerical
values for the filters we have applied
allowing you to evaluate each game's
potential at a glance I cannot make it
any simpler than that so thanks for
watching today's video on how to filter
games using Sports IQ for The Layover
3.5 goal strategy by applying these
filters you'll be able to identify the
best matches to trade on with confidence
please do keep in mind that eight games
have not yet been played in all European
leagues so if you're thinking of using
this straight away please be patient and
wait for the data to come before diving
in if you find this video helpful don't
forget to like subscribe and drop a
comment below with any strategies you'd
like to see in future videos now all
that's left to say is I've been James
this has been layover 3.5 goals at
kickoff and we are all trading the
market until next time happy Trading
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