What Trump & Harris WON’T Tell You During the Campaign
Summary
TLDRThe discussion explores the idea of the U.S. being in a new Cold War, characterized by a hostile rivalry with great powers like China and Russia. The speaker argues that U.S. leaders are hesitant to admit this reality, possibly hoping the problem will resolve itself. The conversation also touches on the emerging global geopolitical blocks, suggesting that the U.S. should confront this situation more openly, especially in terms of defense spending and strategic alignment. The need to acknowledge and address the geopolitical division is emphasized.
Takeaways
- 🛡️ Increasing defense spending is a necessary, but unpopular, topic during election years.
- 🌍 The US is in a new Cold War involving great powers with nuclear weapons, affecting various sectors like the economy and technology.
- 📉 US leaders often avoid acknowledging this Cold War situation, leading to a lack of preparedness for geopolitical realities.
- 🇨🇳 US leaders claim that China and Russia are not allies, but their growing cooperation suggests otherwise.
- 🥞 The camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Putin (symbolized humorously by making pancakes) indicates a strong alliance.
- 🧩 There is a reluctance to admit we're entering a period of dangerous international relations, with many still hoping for more beneficial relationships with rivals.
- ⚔️ The rivalry with China and Russia is deep and hostile, with the risk of conflict increasing as the situation is downplayed.
- 🌏 Today's geopolitical blocks resemble the Cold War divisions, with a 'global West,' a 'global East,' and a 'global South.'
- 🔗 The alignment between China and Russia is solid, making it unlikely they will split during the leadership of Xi Jinping and Putin.
- ⚖️ The US should treat China and Russia as a united geopolitical block to better manage the consequences of their actions, instead of pretending they are divided.
Q & A
Why is defense spending considered a difficult topic during election years?
-Defense spending is often seen as a less popular topic during election years because it is not typically a point that resonates with voters, who may prefer discussions on domestic issues rather than military expenditures.
What does the speaker mean by 'Cold War' in the current context?
-The speaker refers to a 'Cold War' as a hostile rivalry between great powers, like the U.S., China, and Russia, each possessing nuclear weapons. This rivalry involves competition in areas like the economy, technology, and propaganda, rather than direct military conflict.
Why do some U.S. officials deny the existence of a new Cold War?
-Some officials might deny the existence of a new Cold War in hopes that by not acknowledging it, the situation may resolve itself or be less likely to escalate. There is also an aversion to returning to a period of international tension similar to the original Cold War.
What are the potential risks of not acknowledging the new Cold War, according to the speaker?
-The speaker argues that not acknowledging the new Cold War increases the risk of surprise and disaster because it prevents the U.S. from adequately preparing for the geopolitical challenges it faces.
What geopolitical blocks does the speaker suggest exist in the current global landscape?
-The speaker suggests that the world is divided into three geopolitical blocks: the global West (comprising the U.S., Europe, and democratic nations in East Asia and Australia), the global East (led by China, Russia, and their allies like Iran and North Korea), and the global South (similar to the non-aligned movement of the first Cold War).
How does the speaker view the relationship between China and Russia?
-The speaker believes that China and Russia have formed a strong alliance, which is unlikely to break as long as their current leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, are in power.
Why does the speaker believe it's important to treat China and Russia as a block?
-The speaker argues that treating China and Russia as a single geopolitical block would ensure that both countries face the consequences of each other's actions, rather than allowing them to hedge their positions between the two global powers.
What might be the consequences of the U.S. not taking the Cold War scenario seriously?
-If the U.S. does not take the Cold War scenario seriously, it risks being unprepared for the challenges posed by its rivals, leading to greater chances of conflict and instability.
What historical analogy does the speaker use to explain the current geopolitical situation?
-The speaker compares the current geopolitical situation to the original Cold War, emphasizing that while there are differences, the basic dynamics of great power rivalry and global division into blocks are similar.
How does the speaker suggest the U.S. should approach its relationship with China and Russia?
-The speaker suggests that the U.S. should acknowledge the alliance between China and Russia, treat them as a unified block, and impose consequences on both countries for their actions, rather than allowing them to maintain a strategic hedge.
Outlines
💬 Discussing Defense Spending and Cold War Realities
In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of advocating for increased defense spending during an election year. They argue that U.S. officials should be transparent with the public about the realities of a new Cold War. The term 'Cold War' is described as a rivalry between great powers with nuclear weapons, involving competition in sectors like the economy and technology. The speaker criticizes U.S. leaders for denying the existence of this Cold War, despite clear alliances between China and Russia.
🧐 Denial of the Cold War: Reasons and Risks
The speaker explores why U.S. officials deny the Cold War with China and Russia. One explanation is that by refusing to acknowledge the issue, they hope it will resolve itself. The speaker warns that this mindset is dangerous, as it prevents proper preparation for the risks ahead. They believe the U.S. should have addressed this situation in 2022 and that denial will only heighten the potential for surprises and disaster.
🌍 Revisiting Cold War Geopolitical Blocks
The speaker reflects on the Cold War's geopolitical divisions, noting how the world was split into the 'First World' (the West), the 'Second World' (Communist countries), and the 'Third World' (unaligned nations). They argue that a similar dynamic exists today, with a 'global West,' a 'global East' (led by China and Russia), and a 'global South.' While not identical to the Cold War, this division provides a useful framework for understanding current geopolitical alliances.
🔄 Modern Geopolitical Blocks and Their Implications
The speaker elaborates on today's geopolitical blocks, highlighting the 'global West' (democratic nations), the 'global East' (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran), and the 'global South' (developing or unaligned countries). They emphasize that viewing the current situation through a Cold War lens helps clarify international dynamics. This perspective highlights that China and Russia are unlikely to split and should be treated as a united block.
⚖️ Treating China and Russia as a Single Geopolitical Block
The final section focuses on the strategic implications of treating China and Russia as one block. The speaker argues that while the U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies aiding Russia’s war, the Chinese economy hasn't faced significant consequences. To strengthen pressure, the U.S. should push these two powers closer together rather than assuming their relationship will weaken.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Cold War
💡Defense Spending
💡Geopolitical Blocks
💡Global West
💡Global East
💡Global South
💡US-China Relations
💡Nuclear Weapons
💡Propaganda
💡Election Year
Highlights
The speaker suggests that US officials should level with the American people about the new Cold War situation.
The speaker emphasizes that the rivalry between great powers like the US, China, and Russia is forcing competition into various sectors such as the economy, propaganda, and technology.
The speaker argues that many American political leaders are not admitting the reality of the Cold War, leading to a dangerous situation.
The speaker highlights the importance of preparing for geopolitical realities to avoid surprises and disasters.
The speaker contends that the world is splitting into geopolitical blocks similar to the first Cold War, with a 'global West,' 'global East,' and 'global South.'
The speaker notes that the 'global West' includes democracies from Europe, East Asia, Australia, and North America.
The speaker identifies the 'global East' as including the PRC (China), the Russian Federation, Iran, and North Korea.
The speaker suggests that some countries, like Pakistan, may straddle the boundaries between the 'global East' and 'global South.'
The speaker argues that the Cold War framework is a useful heuristic to understand the current geopolitical dynamics.
The speaker believes that the US should acknowledge and treat the China-Russia relationship as a solidified alliance.
The speaker mentions the need for the US to impose more comprehensive consequences on China for supporting Russia's war efforts.
The speaker asserts that ignoring the growing alignment between China and Russia is a strategic mistake for the US.
The speaker implies that the US should aim to push China and Russia closer together, rather than hoping for a division.
The speaker points out that although the Chinese economy is struggling, it hasn't fully suffered from its support of Russia.
The speaker suggests that US officials may be avoiding admitting the Cold War to prevent the situation from becoming more real.
Transcripts
[Music]
I mean I asked this is Matt Pinger when
he was on our show um one thing that the
book The Boiling Mo talks about is like
we need to increase defense spending
just like you've been saying and because
it's a election year this year talking
about defense bending is not exactly a
popular you know like talking point in
terms of elect me and we will spend more
on the military so how do you think
that us officials or
politicians can talk about this in a way
that makes sense to the US
people I think it starts with with
leveling with the American people the
the situation that we're
in uh We've entered a new period of Cold
War um and I mean that in a very
specific sense you know cold war is a is
a you know hostile rivalry between great
Powers each possessing nuclear weapons
which forces the competition into a
variety of other sectors like the
economy uh you know uh into propaganda
uh into
technology um and it forces us to to to
to do things uh and take more seriously
sort of the
geopolitical uh Stakes that we find
ourselves in because it's really it's
really a battle over how does the world
work right how does the international
order work um and
and we've not you know at least I
haven't
seen American political leaders level
with the American people that that's the
situation we're in in fact what we're in
right now is you know numerous leaders
uh and and and officials adamantly
saying that we're not in a cold war
right that this is not
happening uh that China and Russia are
not allies right and and it would seem
to me that that is objectively false on
both counts I mean Xi Jinping and Putin
made pancakes together I mean if that's
not friendship I don't know what is um
why do you think that the US officials
are saying we're not in a cold war is
this trying to signal to China or like
is this like are they they do they
actually believe we're not in a cold war
yeah I so I mean I mean part of it is I
think a a a
desire to um that if you don't admit
something is happening maybe it won't be
become real right um that that you know
as long as you as long as you ignore it
maybe the problem will go away and it
can resolve itself and we can find a a
more mutually beneficial
relationship um I think part of it is is
that there is a there is a a a deep
aversion to the idea that that we would
go back into a
period uh of international
Affairs that um that many of us saw as
quite dangerous and and I think it
absolutely was um but it's it's it's the
least worst option for us right now I
mean the reality is is that we are in a
deeply hostile rivalry with the threat
of War erupting and ongoing conflicts
that we are already in that are that are
sort of Allied to the
PRC um and and if we don't become
serious about that and communicate to
the American people about those
realities um the the risk for surprise
and disaster goes way up because you're
simply not preparing yourself for the
kinds of things you're actually
facing um and so I think that's a that's
a that's a that's a dangerous situation
to be in you know the time to have made
this argument was probably in the spring
of of of
2022 um and folks didn't make that
argument then and so it's becoming it
becomes much more difficult as they get
closer to an election um so I I'm I you
know I know it's hard uh and that's not
what people want to hear but I think
it's I think it's better for us to sort
of deal with reality as it is than to
pretend that it doesn't
exist yeah so you know in the in the I
guess call the first cold war between
the US and the Soviet Union the world
was basically splitting up into these
geopolitical blocks right and at the
time we called it first world that is
you know the West right the first world
second world unaligned and third world
World which was the communist countries
um but what we second world or sorry
communist second world third world were
like the what we now call I guess
developing countries cor right but it's
it's yeah well so and now now it's
called the global like what are the
geopolitical blocks that we're seeing
today are they the same are they
different well I mean I I would contend
that that we now have essentially those
same that that same three World
model um I think we have a global West
right I mean that yeah the idea of the
term West is a little bit tough just
because we're talking about countries
that exist around the world um you know
primarily
Europe um the democracies of of of East
Asia Australia North America I mean
that's that's that's sort of the global
West I mean technically Japan is really
far west of the United States exactly
yes and and possibly just North if you
consider Guam yeah yeah yeah so you know
the
directionality obviously is not the
thing here it's it's it's a concept uh
you know it's a standin term uh that
that that we've chosen to use and I
think I would say that that we've also
got a global east um and increasingly
that is the PRC the Russian
Federation the
Iranians um certainly the North
Koreans um probably would P put the
pakistanis uh in there or maybe they are
in the global south I mean you know a
couple of these will will sort of sit on
boundary lines uh and then we have a we
have a global South um which in many
ways aligns with with what had been the
third world or the non-aligned
movement um of of the first Cold War and
we're now back into that same set of of
Dynamics um you know it's not exactly
the same
um there are difficulties with with sort
of making
analogies but I would argue that that
it's a mistake for us to ignore the
category of Cold War and it's a mistake
for us to ignore the categories of these
different blocks it's a heuristic to
think about how these things work uh as
opposed to the as opposed to a direct
analogy to what we went through between
1947 and
1991 um and so uh if the US were to sort
of in a in a whole of government way
look
at uh our situation as a cold war and as
we're in this geopolitical block uh
versus you know the the China Russia
North Korea Iran block how would that
change things from the way they are
now well I think it it it would sort of
settle our minds on on the idea that
that um that there is this this budding
division between Moscow and Beijing um I
think we've got to to sort of set that
aside that that is likely not going to
materialize any time while xiin ping and
Vladimir Putin are
alive um you know those two leaders have
likely made a set of
conclusions about their own alignment
that is going to be very hard to
dislodge um and therefore we probably
need to be them and treating them as a
block so that they each suffer the the
consequences of each other's
actions right right now um even though
we've imposed some sanctions on Chinese
companies that are providing material
support to Russia's War
Machine the Chinese economy while not
doing very well is not necessarily
suffering all of the consequences that
would come from China's almost fullscale
support of the Russian war effort
and so therefore they get to sort of
hedge between the two um and and we
should probably be pushing them closer
together right now rather than
pretending that they are still split
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