Japón templa gaitas Crónica de cierre 7 8 2024 bolsas, economía y mercados

Summary

In this financial market recap, José Luis Carpatos discusses the significant rebound in markets, driven by the Bank of Japan's reassurances on interest rates amidst a crisis centered in Japan. European indices show gains, with the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, and others rebounding strongly. The script touches on liquidity issues, market volatility, and the impact of geopolitical risks. It also notes the mixed reactions to earnings reports, with some stocks like Super Micro Computer plummeting despite a stock split announcement, while others like Nvidia show resilience. The analysis concludes with technical insights on the S&P 500's future, emphasizing the importance of breaking key resistance levels for a confirmed market trend reversal.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The script is a financial market analysis video by José Luis Carpatos, discussing the market rebound on August 7th, which was significantly influenced by the Bank of Japan's actions.
• 📉 The Japanese crisis is centered around liquidity issues, which have been exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's clumsy handling, leading to a sharp market reaction.
• 📈 European markets, including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, and the Stoxx 600, are experiencing gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 pulling back after crossing its 200-day moving average.
• 💹 The market is currently in a state of instability, with the main reason for the rebound being the Bank of Japan's assurance that interest rates will not rise in unstable markets.
• 📊 Technical analysis suggests that the Euro Stoxx 50 is at a critical level, and a pullback to the 200-day moving average could indicate further downward movement if it fails to hold above this level.
• 💔 There is a sense of exaggeration in the market movements, possibly due to a collapse in liquidity during August, which is unusual as liquidity has not been this low since 2022.
• 🗨️ The Bank of Japan's statements have led to a depreciation of the yen, which was desired by the market to prevent further appreciation that was disrupting carry trade operations.
• 📉 Bonds are giving back some of their recent gains, with the 10-year bond yield falling to 3.94%, indicating that markets are not currently pricing in an immediate recession.
• 🚫 Wall Street is refuting the possibility of an extraordinary meeting by the Federal Reserve before the September meeting, as stated by Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
• 📊 The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell are all rising, despite poor earnings reports from companies like Super Micro Computer, which is down 18% but not significantly impacting the market's rebound.
• 🔮 Looking ahead, the future of the S&P 500 is uncertain, with technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum and the need to break key levels to confirm if the downturn has ended.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is a market analysis and closing session commentary for a trading day, focusing on the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions on global financial markets.

What significant event is mentioned in the script related to the Bank of Japan?

The significant event mentioned is the Bank of Japan's announcement that they will not raise interest rates in unstable markets, which has contributed to the market rebound.

What is the context of the crisis mentioned in the script?

The crisis is centered in Japan, initiated by a liquidity collapse due to the perceived clumsiness of the Bank of Japan's actions, and is not necessarily related to fears of a recession or the valuation of tech stocks.

Which market indices are mentioned as having strong rebounds in the script?

The DAX, EuroStoxx 50, Stoxx 600, and the IES 35 are mentioned as having strong rebounds.

What is the significance of the 200-day moving average in the script's market analysis?

The 200-day moving average is a key technical indicator in the script. It is mentioned as a level that is difficult to pass without a pullback, and its breach can indicate a decisive market trend.

What is the script's commentary on the liquidity situation in the market?

The script notes a very low liquidity situation, particularly for the NASDAQ 100 futures, which is unusual and has contributed to the market volatility.

What is the script's stance on the future movements of the Euro against the Yen and the Dollar against the Yen?

The script indicates that the Euro against the Yen and the Dollar against the Yen are both rising, influenced by the market's reaction to the Bank of Japan's statements.

What is the script's view on the role of bond markets in the current financial situation?

The script suggests that bond markets are currently returning some of the gains they had accumulated, with the 10-year bond yield dropping, indicating that markets are not discounting an immediate recession.

What is the script's analysis of the situation with Super Micro Computer's stock?

Despite Super Micro Computer's stock plummeting due to poor results, the script notes that the market is currently focused on rebounds and not paying much attention to such negative news.

What geopolitical risk is mentioned in the script that could impact the markets?

The script mentions the ongoing geopolitical risk of a potential massive attack from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel as a factor that could cause significant market disruption.

What technical analysis is performed on the S&P 500 future in the script?

The script performs a technical analysis on the S&P 500 future, noting the formation of a Japanese candlestick pattern that could indicate a potential reversal, and discussing the significance of the 200-day moving average and the RSI indicator.