Wyndham Championship DFS Golf + Betting Preview : Modeling, Draftkings Core, Values + Outright Bets
Summary
TLDRIn this DFS embedding preview, Luke GS breaks down the Windom Championship's final regular season event, focusing on weather impacts, course specifics, and key stats for player selection. He highlights top plays, including Sedgefield's impact, and offers DFS and outright betting strategies. Luke also discusses specific players' performances on Bermuda grass and their suitability for the course, providing valuable insights for fans looking to optimize their bets.
Takeaways
- 🏌️♂️ The video discusses DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) embedding preview for the Wyndham Championship, a golf tournament.
- 🌐 Luke, the host, provides insights on how to approach the tournament with modeling and DFS strategies, especially considering the potential impact of a tropical storm on the event.
- 🌦️ A weather warning is highlighted, with a tropical storm expected to affect North Carolina, possibly leading to delays or even cancellation of play.
- 📊 Luke emphasizes the importance of key stats like approach play, shots gained putting, and Bermuda grass performance for identifying top players in the tournament.
- 🚩 Sedgefield Country Club is identified as a positional golf course, where mid to long irons and layups are common, and driving accuracy is more valuable than distance.
- 🌳 The course's narrow fairways and potential for wind may increase the importance of approach out of the rough and around the green stats.
- 🎯 Comparisons with similar courses like TPC Southwind, River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club are suggested for further analysis.
- 💰 Six core plays and three value plays are identified, with specific players highlighted for their potential performance and value in DFS and outright bets.
- 🏆 Sunjae Im is mentioned as a top play with a history of good performance on the course and solid recent form, making him a popular choice in DFS and for outright bets.
- 🌿 Brian Harman is highlighted for his ability to perform well in difficult conditions, which could be a factor if the storm impacts the tournament.
- 📈 The video also discusses the importance of course history and recent form, with players like JT Poston and Ben Griffin being examples of value picks based on these factors.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is a DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) embedding preview for the upcoming Wyndham Championship, discussing the event's expectations, player analysis, and betting strategies.
What is the significance of the weather forecast for the Wyndham Championship?
-The weather forecast is significant because a tropical storm is expected to pass through North Carolina during the tournament, potentially causing delays, shortening the event to 54 holes, or even leading to a complete washout, which could impact playing conditions and scoring.
What is the role of Sedgefield Country Club in the Wyndham Championship?
-Sedgefield Country Club is the venue for the Wyndham Championship. It is characterized as a positional golf course with a par 70 layout and is known for its Bermuda grass, which affects the players' strategies and performance.
Why is approach play considered the number one key stat for this event?
-Approach play is considered the number one key stat because Sedgefield Country Club is a second-shot golf course, where players often have to lay up, leading to many shots from mid to long irons, making approach play crucial for success.
What is the importance of shots gained putting in the player selection process?
-Shots gained putting is important as it reflects a player's recent form with the putter and their performance on Bermuda grass greens, which is a key factor at Sedgefield Country Club.
How does driving accuracy compare to driving distance in terms of importance at Sedgefield Country Club?
-Driving accuracy is more important than driving distance at Sedgefield because the course is more about positioning and laying up, requiring players to hit fairways accurately rather than overpowering the course.
What are the top three comparable courses mentioned for the Wyndham Championship?
-The top three comparable courses mentioned are TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club, all of which share similar characteristics with Sedgefield Country Club.
Who are some of the players discussed as core plays for DFS and outright bets in the script?
-Some of the players discussed as core plays for DFS and outright bets include Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Carlos Ortiz. Sungjae Im is highlighted as a popular play with a history of good performance at the event.
What is the reason for considering Christian Bezuidenhout as a core play in DFS?
-Christian Bezuidenhout is considered a core play because he fits the style of the golf course, has a solid performance history at Sedgefield, and his recent form and shots gained metrics are positive, making him a valuable pick at his price point.
What factors contribute to the selection of players for outright bets at higher odds?
-Factors contributing to the selection of players for outright bets at higher odds include their historical performance at the course, recent form, shots gained metrics, and the ability to perform well in challenging conditions like wind and rain.
How does the script suggest approaching the selection of value plays in DFS?
-The script suggests approaching the selection of value plays by considering players priced at $8,000 or cheaper, who have a good course fit, recent form, and positive shots gained metrics, even if they may not be the most popular or widely owned picks.
What is the significance of the Patreon page mentioned in the script?
-The Patreon page is significant as it offers subscribers access to in-depth analysis, ownership projections, player polls, and shots gained metrics, providing additional tools for subscribers to make informed decisions in their DFS and betting strategies.
What is the role of the live stream scheduled for Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. eastern time?
-The live stream serves as a platform to discuss last-minute information, ownership projections, weather forecasts, and their potential impact on the tournament. It also includes a Q&A segment to address viewer questions and provide insights on game theory and lineup construction.
Outlines
🏌️♂️ Golf DFS Strategy and Weather Impact
The script introduces a DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) preview for the Wyndham Championship by GS, Luke. It discusses the importance of the final week of the regular season for FedEx Cup playoffs and outlines the strategy for DFS and betting. The Sedgefield Country Club's characteristics as a positional golf course are highlighted, along with the potential impact of a tropical storm on the event. Key stats for modeling and identifying top plays are mentioned, with a focus on approach play and putting on Bermuda grass. The unpredictability of weather and its potential to affect the tournament's outcome is emphasized.
🌦️ Weather's Role and Player Selection Criteria
This paragraph delves into the possible effects of the tropical storm on the tournament, including delays and the possibility of a shortened event. It discusses the difficulty of handicapping without tee times or a clear weather forecast. The script then shifts to player selection, emphasizing driving accuracy over distance, and the importance of approach play and Bermuda grass performance. It highlights the need to consider recent form, particularly in putting and around-the-green stats, and introduces the concept of 'comp courses' for comparison.
🎯 Key Players and Their DFS & Outright Bets
The speaker identifies and discusses several key players, including their DFS pricing, outright odds, and reasoning for selection. Players like Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Joaquin Niemann are highlighted for their course fit, recent form, and historical performance. The importance of course history and the players' ability to perform under challenging conditions is underscored. The speaker also mentions his approach to outright bets and the potential for high ownership of certain popular players.
📊 In-Depth Player Analysis and Value Plays
The script provides an in-depth analysis of players like Christian Bezuidenhout, highlighting their performance metrics and suitability for the course's Bermuda grass. It discusses the importance of approach play from the rough and around-the-green skills. The speaker also introduces value plays like JT Poston and discusses his past performance and suitability for the course. The potential for different ownership percentages and the strategic use of these in DFS lineups are also mentioned.
🚀 High-Risk, High-Reward Outright Bets and Course Fit
This section discusses high-risk, high-reward outright bets, including players like Will Zalatoris and Nick Dunlap, who are considered course horses with excellent Bermuda grass stats. The speaker explains the rationale behind these bets, focusing on the players' approach play and around-the-green abilities. It also touches on the importance of course fit and how certain players may excel on tracks that suit their game, despite not being the most accurate off the tee.
🌐 Final Thoughts and Engagement Invitation
The script concludes with an invitation for viewers to engage by commenting their picks for the tournament, with a reward for correct predictions. It summarizes the DFS strategy, mentions the Patreon page for more in-depth analysis, and highlights upcoming content, including prop bets and a live stream. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe and participate in the live stream for last-minute insights and to prepare for the tournament.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡DFS
💡Wyndham Championship
💡FedEx Cup playoffs
💡Sedgefield Country Club
💡Tropical storm
💡Bermuda grass
💡Shots gained
💡Positional golf course
💡Layup
💡Outright bets
💡Ownership projections
💡Value plays
Highlights
GS, Luke provides a DFS embedding preview for the Windom Championship, discussing strategies and player analysis.
The regular season's last week has significant implications for FedEx Cup playoffs and outright bets.
Sedgefield Country Club's characteristics as a positional golf course are highlighted, including its yardage and potential weather impact.
A tropical storm is forecasted to affect the area, possibly leading to delays or even cancellations of play.
The importance of approach play and shots gained putting on the Bermuda grass is emphasized for this event.
Driving accuracy and good drive percentage are more valuable than driving distance on this course.
Approach out of Bermuda rough is a key stat for players' success at Sedgefield.
TPC Southwind, TBC River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club are identified as comparable courses for model weighting.
Six core plays and three value plays are presented, including their DFS and outright betting potential.
Xander Schauffele is highlighted as a top play with unmatched event history and solid shots gained metrics.
Brian Harman is noted for his affordability and ability to perform well in challenging conditions.
Chez Reavie is identified as a core play with a consistent performance and good fit for the course.
JT Poston is a value play with a history of success at Sedgefield and a good fit for the course's demands.
Ben Griffin is presented as a value play with recent improved performance and a good course fit.
Brendan Todd is the last core play discussed, favored for his course history and potential for a top performance.
Outright bets for Will Zalatoris and Nick Dunlap are mentioned, considering their potential upside.
A Patreon page is promoted, offering detailed player analysis, ownership projections, and DFS tools.
A live stream is scheduled for Wednesday, offering last-minute insights and answering audience questions.
Transcripts
[Music]
welcome on inle fans it's your boy GS
Luke here with our DFS embedding preview
for this week's Windom Championship
going to break down what to expect from
this event as well as how I'm attacking
my modeling and DFS and betting exposure
for this event it's the last week of the
regular season schedule so obviously a
lot on the line when it comes to keeping
your status and getting into those FedEx
Cup playoffs and of course some Je P's
to take down some outright bets that
have got our names on it so a lot to get
into for this week so I'm stoked for it
excited to get after it here and let
started off with a look at my modeling
in key stats and I'm using to identify
some of those top plays Sedgefield
Country Club is more of a positional
golf course and very similar to some of
the other layup golf courses that we
have on the PJ tour it's only about 7100
yard and though it typically plays
pretty easy this year we've got a
tropical storm heading through the area
so if you haven't seen the news there is
going to be a storm heading right
through North Carolina Thursday and
Friday which means we may have over 3 in
of rain come through the area at least
if the local forecasts are correct so if
that happens could very easily be a
delay in play heck could even be a 54
hole golf tournament or and worst case
scenario might be a complete wash out so
I think the weather going to be a huge
impact for this week but unfortunately
here in a Monday we don't have the tea
times to look at and or a clear weather
forecast so the one thing I'll say is
that it does look like it could be a
very wet week if they end up playing
through some of the storms could be
brutally difficult out there in Thursday
and Friday but uh far too much unknown
right now to really talk about anything
from that side one thing I will note is
that it might play a little bit softer
this year but if it's going to be
extremely windy and they play through it
you could have some of the harder
scoring conditions that we've seen at
this golf course but putting that aside
just diving into what we usually see at
Sedgefield from the approach profile
it's a lot of those mid to Long irons
you'd expect for only a 70 100 yard Golf
Course to have quite a few wedges but
because the golf course forces you to
lay up far more often than not um you're
going to have a lot of shots from 125
yards out to about 225 so that's where a
majority of my waiting is going to be
this weekend because it is a second shot
golf course that's when you get when you
have a lot of layups the approach play
is going to be by far our number one key
stat and number two we've got shots
gained putting I'm looking at some
recent form metrics when it comes to the
flat stick but also some berbo grass
numbers you have got a p pure berer
grass out there from tip to toe so
whether it's the greens rough collars
Fairways te's everything is going to be
some variation of Bermuda off the te as
I mentioned much more of a positional
golf course so though driving distance
isn't something that you can completely
ignore it's going to be a little bit
helpful on the par fivs also for just
hitting shorter clubs into the greens it
is much more about driving accuracy and
good drive percentage then it is going
out there and overpowering the place
number four I've got approach out of
Bermuda to rough so because you've got
real narrow Fairways out there and
perhaps with the added wind I think you
might see a few more missed Fairways so
something that I'm mixing in and then my
friends over there at bet the number
were looking at as well around the green
we've got recent form but also once
again that Bermuda grass Baseline as
everything here is going to be that
Bermuda and then for our comp courses
we've got six to choose from but these
top three are by far my favorite so
we'll focus on those three you got TPC
Southwind short berm grass par 70 that
fits pretty much everything that we have
this week TBC River Highlands another
short par 70 a beit with a different set
of agronomy and then Colonial Country
Club similar kind of story right
different Agronomy but a lot of the same
kind of shots and a lot of forced layups
off the te so I think that all three are
exceptional comc courses but you could
even throw in a TPC saw grass that does
have that Bermuda grass in play TPC San
Antonio another short track where it's
hard to hit Fairways John Deere it's a
little bit easier than what we'll get
this week but another one of those
shorter more positional kind of go
courses and then also TPC Twin Cities
which we saw for the 3M open are all I
think worthy of some comparison so with
that being said we've talked about our
modeling what I'm looking for in players
now let's apply that and try and find
some of our top targets so we're going
to have six plays here three core plays
three value plays that I point out but
also an extra four outright bets that
I've taken so a little bit more outright
SL betting exposure this week and six
core plays as I mentioned before let's
started off with sunm at the top end of
the board he's the most most expensive
players also the shortest outright
number that I'm taking and he's 16 to1
um I think in DFS he will be one of the
more popular plays and I think it's well
warranted here the event history is
unmatched you got T14 T2 t24 also two
top 10 finishes back there in 2020 and
202 19 the shots gained heading in are
solid as well if you take a look at that
you can see he has the t7 at the open of
course pretty solid finish top five
there at the Genesis a T12 at the on
Deere and if you look at the shots gain
metrics it all lines up as well he's
gaining across all four stat categories
most impressively out there with the
iron play and even out to the last 24
rounds he is still gaining across the
board so a very sustainable kind of
shots gained profile and what we're used
to seeing from Sanjay uh La towards the
middle to end of last season he kind of
fell off in a few key categories and now
that we're starting to get that vintage
sunj U might part of it may have been
injury right we had that with sunj he
was dealing with a little bit of a
recurring uh leave wrist injury out
there um seems to be doing a lot better
A lot healthier and you're seeing that
with the results now that we're getting
them at more of a positional track
that's what he is off the te a very
straight driver of the golf ball um Iron
play has been dialed in over the last
few months to get him on BB grass which
is also a very good surface for him in
terms of his long-term Baseline um and
the greens that he's lit up over the
last few years I mean it's just a spot
where I think you might have that form
peeking at the right time course fit
peeking at the right time hell even help
out there for sunm being a huge plus um
which is why I'll take him for the
outright at 16 to1 so I think a DFS will
be popular but I think that is well
warranted and more importantly has the
kind of upside to go out there and crack
out there for a win so you know it's
been quite some time for sunjay since
we've had that kind of Pop performance
but historically he is the kind of guy
that you trust out there on a Sunday and
not somebody that is a Serial choker or
anything like that so definitely a
little bit of a short outright odds
there at 16 to1 but I think was well
warranted with all those factors in play
next up we got Brian Harmon down here at
30 to1 he is $9,300 I think a very
affordable price tag and you also like
him at these short positional tracks you
like him at courses where it's about
that driving accuracy over the driving
distance and an added thing that I think
separates him from some of the other
outrights that we'll talk about is
ability to go out there and grind in
nasty conditions and I already said that
it's hard to go out there and kind of
figure out whether we're going to play
on Thursday and Friday but if they play
in windy and rainy conditions there is
no one in the field that trust more to
go out there and grind than a Brian
Harmon you've seen it in the open
championships you've seen it time and
time again from him when conditions get
nasty him having some of the better
rounds out there in the event so you
know I like that aspect to it even if he
gets the bad end of the draw this week
right maybe he can go out there and
still pull through for us and at 30 to1
it was also a better outright number
than a lot of the other sports books out
there so another guy mixed in I think
it'll be maybe averagely owned down here
in this range sunj will probably be
chalky I would imagine that some people
are going to play Billy horel this week
with his course history um he's not
going to be overlooked you'll still have
guys that'll play Davis Thompson o batia
I imagine would be a pretty popular play
but he's also not going to be like 25%
owned like we have up there with the
sunj m in sell sunj it's only Monday
it's hard to really say where he's going
to come in with the ownership I could
see him even being like 30% owned out
there on Wednesday uh that shouldn't be
the case here with Brian Harmon I'm
assuming that he's going to come in
closer to about 15% ownership which will
give you a much easier time going out
there and get leverage in your lineups
and also can give you a bit more
differentiation as well next up our next
outright will be Christian ban hooot at
$8,700 another core play that I'm
pointing out here and a player that fits
this style of golf course now the form
maybe not as solid is what you had with
sunjay but still quietly chugging along
with his shots gain metrics you can see
positive in all four stat categories
that would be over his last 12 measured
rounds and even over his last 24 rounds
where it's only three of the four C
categories that he's positive he is a
very accurate driver of the golf ball so
definitely not the longest cat he's gone
a little bit better off the te over the
last year or so but at this style of
golf course for it's about putting
yourself in position leaning on that
Fairway in on Fairway from ingame
reminds me a lot of web Simpson who of
course is the Whisperer around
Sedgefield uh he's got a win here named
one of his children after the damn Golf
Course um a player that pretty much
every time you tease it up goes out
there in top 10s now baz who doesn't
quite have that kind of course history
yet but he's that same style of player
so you can see in his three starts here
he has made the cut in every single trip
but now that he's turning into a much
more well-rounded player a much more
consistent player out here uh and now
starting to gain across all four stat
categories is the kind of player that I
think could win at this event now that's
why I took him at 40 to1 but in DFS the
reason why I'll Point him out as a core
play is he doesn't have to win to pay
off an $8,700 praise tag a top 10 would
be enough and I think that in this kind
of field especially now that he's taken
his game to another level that he has
the upside to go out there and get that
kind of thing done so you can see here
number 18 in the rankings when it comes
to recent form some of the longer term
stuff is actually even more favorable
out there for CZ you can see he's the
number 14 ranked play in the entire
field a solid berm grass putter meant to
mention that about guys like Brian Haron
and sunji M all of these guys gain
Strokes to their Baseline on berm grass
so um if you didn't see my course
breakdown I talk extensively about why
Bermudagrass in particular is course
where you see a lot of the coarse um
kind of cats go out there and have a lot
of success it's because berm grass is
very unique you have that grain in play
whether it's chipping off of it or going
out there and putting berit grass greens
there is an art form for knowing how to
do so playing guys that have had solid
stats on it or that are very familiar
with that type of aromy can reap
benefits at these sort of events and the
one thing you get with the Windom that
isn't always the case like when we have
Bermuda grass greens is that you get
Bermuda from tip to toe so the guys that
are you know excellent or exceptional on
the surface are not only going to get a
benefit on the greens but also around
the greens so as you saw with our key
stats earlier right I'm looking at
around the Green stats on Bermuda grass
um heck even approach out of that
Bermuda rough and pretty much no matter
which metric you look at out there for
bazan hoot he is a huge positive in
every single category so that's why the
course metrics are a little bit higher
on him than you'd expect even with him
losing shots off the te over his last 24
right the last 24 rounds aren't as solid
as what we've seen over the last 12 but
because of the fact that all the
approach stats around the green stuff on
Bermuda grass pop that is why I'm still
willing to take them at 40 to1 before we
talk about our last three value plays
and a few other outright bets that I'm
mixing in for the week I'm going to go
ahead and point out my patreon page
which of course can be accessed down
there in the description of this video
If you joined the golf DFS tier you can
get access to everything you see on the
spreadsheet and I'll include all my
ownership projections when they're done
Tuesday after no also my entire player
poll shots gain metrics modeling for
every player we've got the recent form
on here as you can see over the last few
events they've got event history for
every player in the field the shots gain
metrics of my model weights that of
course were censored over here on the
right all of course for your access and
your process so it'll give you
perspective for what I'm getting to in
any given week but also give you all the
research tools that you need to go out
there and do your process yourself so
it's only $15 for a month on there it is
a very reasonable price tag especially
compared to some of the other sites out
there which are costing you 50 to
sometimes well over $100 a month for
their services over here is just $15
again very reasonable and on top of that
you also get Showdown content for rounds
two through four so you have main s
every week Showdown for rounds two
through 4 all of this data the ownership
projections of course change out there
for Showdown as well um projected points
player pull all of that so make sure to
get check it out if you guys haven't
already and uh again a great value over
there a way to get all the content that
I have to offer and my take on every
single player that's playing not just
the few guys that we talk about here in
these previews but next up we've got
ourselves JT Poston so our first value
play a value play for me is anybody that
is $8,000 and cheaper on most weeks um
sometimes if it goes up to like a 13k
price tag I'll push that up just a
little bit but JT Post in at $7,900
another guy that I took for an outright
at 60 to1 so a player that's won here
before back there in I believe 2019 was
able to get the job done so you can see
back there Poston went win cut cut but
did have that t7 last year and a t21 the
year before that and a very accurate
driver of the golf ball that once again
is a solid putter out there on berm
grass and that if you take a look at his
approach profile is best from the mid to
longer irons he's not always the best
wedge player but when you give him like
a nine iron to something out there to a
six is one of the best players out there
on the PGA tour so this golf course I
don't think it's a you know a
coincidence that he's gone out there and
had so much success here here and though
the shots gain metrics aren't perfect
right that's why we're getting them at a
slightly cheaper price tag also why I
think we're going to get a discounted
ownership Mark out here on JT Poston
he's been doing his thing with the short
game at least right gaining around the
graen doing his thing with the putter
you zoom out a little bit it's a lot of
similar stuff right losing in the two
ball striking categories by going out
there and doing solid things with the um
short game stuff I'll take them for a
get right spot right he's not going to
come in with the best form but that's
also why we're getting a much better
outright number on him if he was coming
in with he'd probably be closer to like
25 or 30 to1 he would probably also be
like 88 to maybe even $99,500 so they
getting it you know buying to dip out
there per se out there on somebody like
JT Poston and historically with the
course history the course fit makes a
whole lot of sense at this kind of golf
course if you outright some to point out
we're not going to really do a whole
Deep dive here or anything but I did bet
Will zorus and Nick Dunlop at 75 to1
will Alors if I want to do anything with
them this week right maybe I throw him
in a few lineups for DFS but I think the
best format might be an outright BET
right if he ends up withdrawing before
lock you're not going to get killed
there you'll get refunded on most sports
books and if he's back right he took
quite a lengthy break after going out
there and having to withdraw if he's
back to his former self this is a
criminal number right 75 to1 would make
no sense if we're getting a vintage will
out torus now that's a huge if but
that's also why you're betting the guy
at 75 to1 so it's a pure upside play
there I think a DFS may be a little bit
more risky but we'll have to see what he
says in some of his pressers this week
and uh how how he's feeling out there
for this golf tournament but next up
Nick Dunlap I also took it 75 to1 I
think he's much more in play for DFS
we're just not going to talk about
everyone here that I want to but uh I
really like the play the berm grass
stats are excellent really good putter
on berm but one of the best players in
the field when it comes to approach play
at a Bermuda rough and also one of the
best around the green players when it
comes to Bermuda grass so a course horse
right somebody that really fits this
kind of track and uh though he's a
little bit inaccurate off the te the
numbers out of the rough kind of make up
for that and hopefully him laying up off
the te can lead to him hitting a few
more Fairways um and just to give you an
idea guys like Cam Davis are that same
sort of player right like Cam Davis does
not hit a lot of Fairways and uh I don't
even know yeah there he is right $8,900
if you look at cam Davis's course
history you'd probably be surprised it's
because he's laying up off the tea right
you top 10 last year T15 t22 back there
5 years ago I think the reason why he
can still get it done here is his iron
play his putting is solid enough to
still get the job done so I don't think
you can completely ignore guys just
because they're not the most accurate
player and uh I think Nick Dunlop is a
perfect example of that by the way if
you take a look at cam davis' shots gain
profile he's really good out of Bermuda
rough so I think that's maybe why he's
able to take advantage of that next up
we got Ben Griffin as our next value
play official play out here he's also a
guy took for an outright bet at 75 to1
it's worth noting if you take a look at
his Sedgefield fit over here from the
course fit perspective he's the number
two player in the field so the fact that
he's number 39 in the pricing down here
at number two course fit just made him
an absolute steal so he opened up at 60
to1 on Hard Rock bet he actually got
bumped from 60 up to 75 to one and after
seeing that with somebody I went out
there and fired for an outright bet he's
been playing a lot better golf lately
than what we're used to seeing and the
fact that he's only $7,300 is a little
bit of a head scratcher to me I think he
should probably be around $8,000 if I is
making the pricing and if you take a
look at the shots gained profile he been
doing vintage Ben Griffin stuff I mean
just going out there striping his irons
off the te is always a little bit of a
loose cannon but if you take a look at
his event history here right he's had a
lot of success around this kind of track
so if we go down here to 7300 you'll see
that he missed the cut last year but the
year before that did have a top five
finish in one of his first starts back
out there on the PJ tour so this is a
track that seemingly brings out the best
in Ben Griffin's game and if you take a
look at a lot of those comp courses that
we mentioned before he's had a ton of
success and Especial Especially recent
success at a lot of these kind of golf
courses so you know if we take a look at
the recent form from Ben Griffin you'll
see exactly what we're talking about
here right so t39 I believe that was at
what the Genesis but if we go before
that T5 t31 at two golf courses that
play pretty similar right John Deere was
on the list I think rocket mortgage a
decent enough comp there as well so he's
played well at the comps he's played
well at this golf course number two
course fit for metagraph Specialists go
ahead and sign me up for some Ben
Griffin before we talk about our last
full play do want to point out the last
two outrights that we're not going to
cover in full detail but I did want to
point out to you guys from the betting
card perspective I did bet Ben hoh's for
a top 5 at 22 to1 he was at 20 to1 did
get a 10% profit boost over there on
Hard Rock so I got that up to 22 to1
myself but you can see he's gaining on
Berita grass also a very accurate driver
of the golf ball so somebody I took for
a little bit of a top-end performance
there you know a little Spike
performance out there for Ben Kohl's
hopefully and then the last outright
which is a pure upside play this is
probably lighting money on fire but I
did take Daniel Berger at 150 to1 most
other books have them at a lower number
than that so a little bit of line value
I guess if you're going ahead and
comparing other books but the shots gain
metrics particularly te to Green have
been there for Daniel Burger you can see
historically a pretty decent putter out
there on Bermuda in fact gains about2
Strokes per round on the surface and
that is .9 Strokes better than his
Baseline lately so as I said right Tia
green has been there putter has
completely failed Daniel Burger so far
so maybe getting them back on Berita a
surface that has been his best out there
on the PGA tour can get him back into
the positive for once and uh like I said
probably a crap shoot for him to go out
there and Win It 150 to1 but um I did
bet it so I'm going to point it out to
you guys right might not hit but at
least wanted to to give you guys all my
exposure to be transparent about it and
then the last core play though the last
official play out here for the video is
going to be Brendan Todd at 100 to1 so
he's 70 to1 and this is a quintessential
Brendon Todd Golf Course right track
where it's not all about the driving
distance off the tea if you can be a
good putter a good player with those mid
to Long irons you can go out there and
find a lot of success so it's not a
surprise that if you take a look at his
course history that outside of the Mist
cut four years ago that it's been
excellent stuff top 10 last year made
the cut t36 the year before that and
then a T10 back there I believe in 2021
are all optimal performances right these
especially the t7 the T10 performances
are all going to get you to the optimal
lineup at this kind of price tag and
that's a for the outright at 100 to12 I
mean this is the kind of guy that pops
out of nowhere a lot of times when he's
playing his best golf at this kind of
track it's him going out there top five
or even winning the golf tournament so
it was a decent number compared to other
books 100 to one was very comparable to
some of the better numbers out there and
uh you can see recent form ranking isn't
popping that much right he's number 41
in the field heck even total modelto
ranking number 52 that's very fair for
this kind of price tag but it's been on
harder golf courses it's been on tracks
that don't necessarily fit his game and
when you take it as take a look at his
best performances best results here in
2024 it's been at the shorter tracks
that we've had so you can see he's
gaining a bunch of Strokes on Bido one
of the most accurate players off the tea
that we have on the PJ tour so if you're
looking for a course horse he fits that
in buckets and Spades and is why I'm
getting to him for some exposure this
week all righty guys that is all I've
got for the DFS EMB bedding preview this
week before you hoping out of here go
ahead and smash that like button for me
and also comment down below who you've
got winning this golf tournament as long
as long as they're at least 30 to one to
win the golf tournament you'll win out a
free month of my patreon if they take
home the trophy so go ahead claim your
player down below because as soon as
somebody is taken once they cannot be
taken again so make sure they're at
least 30 to one like I said give me your
best guest down below and may the best
person go out there and win I appreciate
you appreciate the support here on the
channel make sure you subscribe if you
guys haven't already so you don't miss
any of the content throughout the week
that will include some prop content over
there in the patreon maybe even a prop
preview if we end up getting the boards
posted early and also our weekly live
stream Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. eastern
time you guys can check out all the last
second info before lock so that'll
include ownership projections on there
we'll have that to compare to talk about
some of the game theory heading into
lock also go through the weather
forecast what to expect from that
tropical storm there on Thursday and
Friday how that's going to impact play
that's probably going to be a very
important segment out there for this
kind of event and then afterwards we'll
talk through all of your questions and
some of the game theory and lineup
construction notes out there for this
slate so a lot to come make sure you
guys stop by at that live stream the
best hour of the week it's a lot of fun
interacting with you guys down there and
uh making sure we're ready to go and
Crush our exposure I appreciate you like
I said before smash that like button if
you haven't already and uh let's have
ourselves a week for this Windom
championship
[Music]
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