AMD Stock Analysis - Testing Key Price Level

Summary

This is a technical analysis of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock by Krie Artech from Wicked Stocks. It reviews AMD's recent price action, noting key support and resistance levels that could signal future moves. After testing support in late 2022, AMD rallied but now faces resistance at the $157 channel top. A close above $158.80 this week would target $186 in 2-3 months. Otherwise AMD may pull back towards $125 or even $102 later this year.

Takeaways

• AMD recently tested support at its rising 2/3 speed line, which contained selling pressure
• Rallying from support it closed above a descending channel top, signaling a buy on strength
• AMD now faces resistance at a rising channel top around $157
• Closing this week more than 1% above $157.23 signals a continued rally towards $186 in 2-3 months
• Closing this week at or below $157.23 signals a pullback is likely towards $125 or even $102 later this year
• The $124.70 rising 1/3 speed line could contain selling pressure over 2-3 months
• The June 2023 high around $133 could provide support on any pullback
• Upside confirmation doesn't come unless AMD closes firmly above the $157 resistance

Q & A

What was the key support level AMD tested in late 2022?

In late October 2022, AMD tested support around its rising 2/3 speed line, which contained selling pressure.

What was the buy signal AMD recently triggered?

By closing above a descending channel top off the support test, AMD triggered a buy signal on strength.

What key resistance level is AMD now facing?

AMD now faces resistance around $157 from a rising channel top formed over the past 6 years.

What would a close above $158.80 this week signal for AMD?

A greater than 1% close above $157.23, at $158.80 or more, would signal continued strength targeting $186 in 2-3 months.

What levels could AMD pull back to if it closes below $157 resistance?

Closes this week at or below $157.23 could see AMD pull back toward $125 and possibly $102 later this year.

Where could selling pressure be contained on any pullback?

The rising 1/3 speed line near $124.70 could contain selling pressure over 2-3 months if AMD pulls back.

What prior support could AMD find on a pullback?

The June 2023 high around $133 could provide support if AMD pulls back from current levels.

What would firmly signal upside conviction for AMD?

AMD closing firmly above the $157 resistance would signal bullish conviction for further upside.

Over what timeframe is AMD's key resistance currently being tested?

AMD is testing longer-term 6 year resistance around the $157 level this week, which will help determine the coming months' trend.

What strategies are recommended based on how AMD acts at resistance?

If AMD holds below $157, selling long positions and trading the short side is recommended until confirmation above $157.80. If AMD breaks out above $158.80, staying long and adding on dips is advised.

Outlines

00:00

AMD's Fundamentals and Technical Analysis

This paragraph provides an overview of AMD's market cap, weekly bar chart, and past technical analysis. It mentions testing a rising 2/3 speed line in late October, followed by a close above a descending channel top weeks later which provided a buy signal. The current rising channel top at 157.23 is noted as an area where long positions could be exited or short positions initiated.

05:02

Potential Price Action Based on Closing Price

This paragraph describes potential future price action based on where AMD's weekly closing price finishes relative to the 157.23 resistance level. A close above 158.80 could lead to 18,606 over 2-3 months. A close at or below 157.23 could lead to a decline to 124.70 or lower in the next 3-5 months.

Keywords

💡AMD

AMD stands for Advanced Micro Devices, which is the company being analyzed in the video. It is described as a large cap corporation that produces semiconductors and processors. The video looks at AMD's stock price movements over time.

💡weekly bar chart

A weekly bar chart shows a stock's opening and closing prices each week. By analyzing the patterns in AMD's weekly bar chart, predictions can be made about potential support and resistance levels as well as future price movements.

💡Rising 2/3 Speed Line

A technical indicator that aims to predict areas of potential support or resistance. In the video it is stated that this speed line previously contained selling pressures and served as resistance around October 2022.

💡descending channel top

Refers to the top resistance level of a downward sloping price channel. Closing above this was considered a bullish signal in the video back in October 2022.

💡rising channel top

The current resistance level that AMD's price is approaching, sitting around $157.23. This is seen as an area where long positions could take profits or where short positions could be entered in anticipation of a pullback.

💡longterm channel top

A wider 6-year rising channel is mentioned, with resistance around $186.06. This is set up as the next major target if AMD can close decisively above the shorter-term channel top around $157.

💡quarterly selling pressures

The potential for stocks to face selling demand on a quarterly basis from rebalancing and profit-taking. Used in the video to describe possible downside over a 3-5 month timeframe if resistance holds.

💡speed line

Indicators that aim to predict areas of potential support or resistance. The 1/3 Speed Line and 2/3 Speed Line are referenced as levels that could halt declines.

💡pivot point

Refers to the current juncture where AMD's price is facing resistance and the future direction is uncertain. It could break above resistance or pull back sharply from around current levels.

💡swing trade

A short-term trade aiming to profit from price moves over days/weeks. A 5-8 week swing trade to the downside is mentioned if resistance holds, targeting the 1/3 Speed Line.

Highlights

AMD stock analysis recorded on January 17th, 2024

Last AMD analysis was September 2022, predicted test of Rising 2/3 Speed Line

AMD tested 2/3 Speed Line in late October, contained selling as predicted

AMD closed above descending channel top weeks later, Buy Signal on strength

Approaching rising channel top at $157.23 this week, potential exit point

1% close above $157.23 at $158.80 continues rally to $186 channel top

Close below $157.23 can fall 3-5 months to $102 channel bottom

Alternate short target is $124 Rising 1/3 Speed Line in 2 months

Converging with June 2023 high of $132.83, take profits there

Fall to $102-104 channel bottom possible later in 2024

At pivot point, further rise to $186 or begin forming top

$158.80+ close indicates $180s over next months

Can sell anticipating $130s over next few months

Buy $132.83 down to $124.70 Speed Line swing trade

Monitor $157.23 close this week for direction bias

Transcripts

hi this is krie artech with Wicked

stocks bringing you an individual stock

pick in Advanced Micro Devices otherwise

known as AMD I did record this video by

the way on Wednesday January 17th 2024

let's segue to the basic fundamentals

courtesy of Yahoo finance you can see

certainly a large cap Corporation if you

want to read any deeper into this feel

free to freeze frame over this right now

but I'm going to segue to the weekly bar

chart same weekly bar chart throughout

and uh I'm going to backtrack a little

bit because the last AMD video analysis

we put out was September of last year

about four or five months ago and during

that or in that video if you go back and

watch it you'll see that we showed that

this Rising 2/3 Speed Line uh you know

we were about a month away from actually

testing it when we put the video out it

was a late September video it was in

late October that we actually tested

this Rising 2/3 Speed Line in which i'

mentioned uh could contain selling

through the rest of the year as it did I

also mentioned in the very same video

that coming off of that Speed Line our

next trouble spot to the upside and also

meaningful Buy Signal on strength would

be a settlement above that descending

Channel top which the market did several

weeks later after testing the 2/3 Speed

Line which I mentioned could contain

selling through the rest of the year 3

weeks later we closed above uh the

descending Channel top which was a go

with Buy Signal on strength uh and so

I'll just leave it at that what we're

actually approaching now is a rising

Channel top that is at

15723 this week the week of Monday

January sorry Tuesday January 16th

Rising 78 cents a week yes we've pushed

through this formation so far this week

but by a narrow degree this is still an

area if you are long AMD you can

consider uh exiting that long position

taking good profits uh this is also an

area where we could fall away for the

next 3 to five months I'll get to that

in a moment but given the fact that we

are presently Above This Channel top at

15723 I should uh just continue with

what if what if we do close this week

above

15723 well that would need to be by a 1%

margin truth be told and the 1%

violation of the 1572 three Channel top

this week is at 15880 so if we settle

Friday at 15880 or higher then we then

this rally that we've seen you know off

of that October low uh it just merely

continues to this longterm Channel top

that is about six years in the making it

goes back to the U uh 2018 low uh at

18606 becomes our next I'm going to say

2 to three month objective and it could

happen it could happen within inside of

two months it could potentially be a 3

to five week blast I would expect uh

aggressive follow-through buying uh if

we were to close this week above the

15723 formation by a 1% margin once

again that channel top is rising 78

cents a week so you can monitor its

location through time now if we ease

back and settle the week at or below

157.6 three this is a market that is

merely testing longer term resistance

and is prone to falling away but for

right now I just want to leave you with

this image at this point in time in the

video that if we close above 15723 at

the end of this week Rising 78 cents a

week and then needs to be by a 1% margin

of 15880 I'm expecting the 18606

six-year Channel top Rising 19 cents a

week as our next 2 to three month

objective where we could actually place

an annual high and fall away from 18 606

uh through the balance of the year uh

there would of course be a significant

long-term Buy Signal if we were to close

above 18606 I'm not going to go there

just yet I will though as we approach if

we approach 18606 over the next few

months and once again it is expected

over the next two to three months if we

settle this week Friday above

15723 by the required 1% margin until

then we may be merely testing long-term

resistance in fact that's the way I want

to frame this that we are merely testing

a long-term resistance level at 157.6

three this is an area where you can exit

a long position and consider going short

now if we close the week at or below

157.6 three uh exiting a long position

and playing the short side is the

recommended approach until proven

otherwise The Proven otherwise would be

of course a weekly settlement above the

15723 channel top what I can expect if

we close this week at or below

15723 I can't say expect but what I

think is quite possible and what I think

you can prepare for in other words I

think you can set a trade for this is

either a uh playing the short side

setting uh you know uh uh shorting AMD

outright as a stock uh and then buying

back at the channel bottom at 102.5 6

presumably about 3 to 5 months later um

or you could actually reach for I don't

know 105 strike out of the money puts

that don't expire for at least 6 months

I'd probably go a year out on that

because it could take the better part of

six months for that to fully play out

once again the 10256 channel bottom is

rising at 78 cents a week and can absorb

selling pressures on a quarterly basis

quite possibly by that point in time

through the rest of the year because if

you give this three to five months to

play out to the downside we're now you

know we could be in the middle of the

Year anyway uh by which point we could

bottom out through the balance of 24 at

10256 on the way down for those of you

who like to trade the near term approach

and I would call this kind of the 3 to 5

we a 5 to 8 week swing trade to the

downside that if we settle the week um

you know Friday uh at or below 157.6

three this newly formed Rising 1/3 Speed

Line at

12470 is considered uh you know let's

just call it a two to three Monon

objective but I really think it could be

inside of 2 months before falling to

12470 a rising 1/3 speed line that is

Trend defining by one definition Rising

a buck six a week and able to contain

monthly possibly quarterly selling

pressures when tested from there we

could round back up to the 15723 channel

toop within several months of testing

12470 12470 is by early March also

converging with that June 23 high of

13283 so you could also say that over

the next several months we fall back to

the

13283 uh June 23 High high and if you

play the short side you can take profits

there uh you can trade both sides of the

market here you can also buy 13283 down

to 12470 or wherever that Speed Line is

but I just wanted to note once again

that longer term that is to say over the

next 3 to 5 months potentially it could

take a little longer depending on how

the market treats that 12470 to 13283

region which is narrowing weekly uh but

uh just longer term later this year we

could fall all the way back to the 10256

Channel bottom where we could bottom out

really through the rest of the year uh

so we are at an an important um pivot

point for the market as we move through

the rest of the first quarter and into

the second either a uh closing above

15970 and continuing onward and upward

to 18606 and rising or B we are

presently forming a top here and you

know where we settle for the week itself

we'll have a lot to say about that don't

forget that 1% threshold above

15723 which is a 158 80 settlement or

higher on Friday does indicate the mid

to uper 180s over the next several

months until then this is a market that

can be sold anticipating you know the

one the lower 130s over the next few

months and possibly into the lower 100

handle the low 102 103 104 region as we

move into later year I'm going to leave

it at that for this particular Wicked

Talks video analysis on AMD you have a

great

day

sh