La crise du logement à Genève

Genève Attractive

10 May 202307:30

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses the housing shortage in Geneva, highlighting that the number of new homes built is insufficient to meet the growing demand. It attributes this to the canton's economic attractiveness, rapid population growth, and structural housing supply issues. The script suggests that to address the shortage, a significant increase in construction, possibly to 5,000 to 6,000 units, is needed. It also touches on the potential of densifying existing areas and the disparity in rental prices, urging the construction of more affordable housing to balance the market.

Takeaways

🏠 In 2021, Geneva saw a record construction of nearly 3,200 housing units, but the average over the past decade was only 1,870 units annually, which is insufficient.
📉 The low vacancy rate in Geneva is due to the canton’s economic attractiveness, rapid population growth, and structurally insufficient housing supply.
📈 Geneva's dynamic growth and increasing number of households, including older individuals and younger couples in large apartments, contribute to high space consumption.
⚠️ The current vacancy rate is extremely low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage in the canton.
🔄 Despite recent construction aligning with demographic growth, past imbalances, particularly in the late 1990s and early 2000s, have created a persistent shortage.
📊 To counteract the shortage, Geneva needs to build 5,000-6,000 units in the short term and then stabilize at 2,500-3,000 units annually.
🌆 There is about 19% buildable land left in Geneva, which could accommodate 75,000 new housing units for an estimated 150,000 new residents.
🏢 Increasing density, such as constructing taller buildings and converting existing structures, is crucial due to limited land availability.
💰 The disparity in rent prices is significant, with high demand from financially capable individuals driving up rents.
⚖️ Geneva’s strict regulatory and legislative constraints slow down the construction process, and easing these constraints could speed up new housing development.

Q & A

What was the record number of housing units constructed in Geneva in 2021?
-In 2021, a record number of nearly 3200 housing units were constructed in Geneva.
What was the average number of housing units constructed annually in the 10 years prior to 2021?
-The average number of housing units constructed annually in the 10 years prior to 2021 was 1870.
Why is the housing vacancy rate in Geneva low?
-The low housing vacancy rate in Geneva is due to the economic attractiveness of the canton, rapid population growth fueled by a positive migration balance, and structurally insufficient housing supply.
What are the two main aspects explaining the housing shortage problem in Geneva?
-The two main aspects are the dynamic growth of Geneva attracting many people to settle, and the increase in the number of households, including older people living alone in large apartments and younger people occupying large apartments without children.
What is the current housing vacancy rate in Geneva, and what does it indicate?
-The current housing vacancy rate in Geneva is very low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage in the canton.
What would be the short-term solution to prevent the housing shortage in Geneva?
-To prevent the housing shortage in the short term, it would be necessary to construct more than 3000 units, probably around 5000 to 6000 units, and then return to a pace of 2500 to 3000 units.
What percentage of buildable surface remains in the canton of Geneva, and how does this relate to the potential for new housing?
-Approximately 19% of the surface in the canton of Geneva remains buildable. With optimistic population growth estimates, about 150,000 new inhabitants would require around 75,000 new housing units, which could be absorbed by the 19% of available buildable surface.
What are some of the strategies suggested for increasing the housing supply in Geneva?
-Some strategies include densifying the city by overbuilding certain structures, possibly increasing the number of floors in new constructions, and considering the densification of villa zones which represent a significant part of the canton.
How does the disparity in rental prices in Geneva affect the housing market?
-The disparity in rental prices, with new, high-end rentals being very expensive and many others having not evolved much over the years, creates a market tension. The high demand from those who can afford high rents drives prices up, while the weakness of tenant rights contributes to the explosion of rents.
What is the current distribution of fixed-rate mortgage loans in Geneva, and what does it suggest about the stability of the housing market?
-75% of mortgage loans in Geneva are fixed-rate, with 45% having a term of 1 to 5 years and 30% over 5 years. This distribution suggests that despite the increase in credit costs, there is no expectation of a market collapse due to households being unable to sustain their mortgage payments.
What are some of the regulatory and legislative constraints that may be affecting the construction of new housing in Geneva?
-Some of the constraints include increasingly stringent regulations and legislation, such as those related to noise sensitivity. There may also be issues with private law oppositions, which are more difficult to address.
What is the fundamental issue with the housing market in Geneva, and what does it suggest for the future?
-The fundamental issue is the structural insufficiency of the housing supply in Geneva, which struggles to meet a robust and resilient demand fueled by solid economic growth and employment. This suggests that the housing market in Geneva is expected to remain stable rather than collapse.

Outlines

00:00

🏗️ Housing Shortage in Geneva

The script discusses the housing shortage in Geneva, noting that despite 2021 being a record year with nearly 3200 new homes built, it's still below the required rate. The average over the previous decade was only 1870 homes per year. The main reasons for the low vacancy rate are the economic attractiveness of the canton, rapid population growth due to a positive migration balance, and a structurally insufficient housing supply. The script also highlights the increase in the number of households, with older people living alone in large apartments and younger people occupying larger spaces without children. The current vacancy rate is very low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage. To address this, it suggests constructing more than 3000 units in the short term, potentially 5000 to 6000, and then maintaining a rate of 2500 to 3000 units annually.

05:02

📊 Economic Dynamics and Housing Construction in Geneva

This paragraph examines the economic dynamics of Geneva and the challenges of housing construction. It mentions that despite the high demand for housing, there is a discrepancy between the number of construction permits granted and the actual number of completed homes due to increasing regulatory and legislative constraints. The script suggests that easing some of these constraints, such as noise sensitivity levels, could speed up housing construction. It also touches on the potential for urban densification, including the possibility of building higher and on existing agricultural land, which is reaching its legal limits. The paragraph emphasizes the need for political and economic development in villa zones, which represent a significant portion of the canton's land and offer untapped potential for housing. Additionally, it discusses the disparity in rental prices, with high prices for new, luxurious apartments and low, stagnant prices for others, and the need to construct more housing to alleviate the shortage and stabilize rental prices.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Housing Construction

Housing construction refers to the process of building new residential units. In the video's context, it is a central theme as it highlights the insufficient construction of new homes, with 2021 being a record year with nearly 3200 units built, yet still below the needed average of 1870 units per year over the past decade. This shortage is a key issue discussed throughout the video.

💡Vacancy Rate

The vacancy rate is the proportion of vacant housing units to the total number of units. The video discusses the low vacancy rate in Geneva, which is attributed to the economic attractiveness of the canton, rapid population growth, and a structurally insufficient housing supply, leading to a weakened vacancy rate in recent years.

💡Economic Attractiveness

Economic attractiveness pertains to the appeal of a region for business and living due to its economic conditions and opportunities. The video mentions Geneva's economic attractiveness as a factor contributing to its rapid population growth and housing demand.

💡Positive Migration Balance

A positive migration balance indicates that more people are moving into a region than out of it. The script points out that Geneva's rapid population growth is fueled by a positive migration balance, which increases the demand for housing.

💡Housing Demand

Housing demand refers to the desire or need of people to acquire housing. The video emphasizes the high housing demand in Geneva, driven by its economic vitality and a solvable demand, where many can afford high rents, influencing the overall housing market dynamics.

💡Rental Prices

Rental prices are the cost of renting a property. The video discusses the disparity in rental prices in Geneva, with new, beautiful properties commanding high rents, while others have remained relatively stable or low, contributing to the complexity of the housing market.

💡Tenant Rights

Tenant rights refer to the legal protections and obligations of tenants. The script mentions the weakness of tenant rights as a factor in the rise of rental prices, as tenants are responsible for ensuring their rents are in line with the law, yet many do not act, leading to higher rents.

💡Housing Market Stability

Housing market stability indicates a consistent and reliable housing market without drastic fluctuations. The video concludes that despite the challenges, all elements point towards the stability of Geneva's housing market, supported by robust employment and economic dynamism.

💡Urban Densification

Urban densification is the process of increasing the population density in a city by adding more housing units in a given area. The video suggests that to address the housing shortage, Geneva may need to consider urban densification, such as increasing building heights or developing attic spaces.

💡Regulatory Constraints

Regulatory constraints refer to the limitations imposed by laws and regulations. The script notes that there is a discrepancy between the demand for building permits and the issuance of final permits, often due to increasing regulatory and legislative constraints, such as noise sensitivity, which may slow down the construction of new housing.

💡Fixed-Rate Loans

Fixed-rate loans are financial products where the interest rate is set and does not change over the life of the loan. The video mentions that the majority of mortgage loans in Geneva are fixed-rate, indicating that despite rising credit costs, there is no expectation of a market crash due to households being unable to service their mortgage loans.

Highlights

In 2021, a record 3200 housing units were constructed, but this is still insufficient compared to the average of 1870 units in the previous decade.

The low vacancy rate in Geneva is due to the canton's economic attractiveness, rapid population growth, and a structurally insufficient housing supply.

The growth in Geneva is driven by a dynamic region attracting many people to settle, and an increase in the number of households.

Elderly people living alone in large apartments and younger people occupying spacious apartments without children contribute to high space consumption.

The current vacancy rate is very low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage in the canton.

To prevent housing shortages, short-term construction of over 3000 units, and then 5000 to 6000 units, followed by a steady 2500 to 3000 units annually is suggested.

There is approximately 19% of buildable land remaining in Geneva, which could accommodate an estimated 75,000 new housing units for 150,000 new residents.

Densifying the city, such as by increasing building heights, is one way to create more housing in the limited space of Geneva.

Continuing construction on agricultural land has reached its legal limits, and densifying villa zones is a complex but significant potential area for development.

There is a significant disparity in rents in Geneva, with new constructions having very high rents but many others remaining unchanged for years.

To address the housing shortage and rent issues, more construction is needed to ease market tension, as there is a high demand for housing.

Rental prices are set by the market, with a significant portion of the population able to pay high rents, which drives prices up.

Tenants' rights are weak, with few acting to ensure rents are in line with the law, contributing to rent increases.

There is a discrepancy between the demand for construction permits and the final permits granted, often due to increasing regulatory and legislative constraints.

Easing certain regulatory constraints, such as noise sensitivity, could potentially speed up the construction of new housing.

The majority of mortgage loans have fixed rates, with 75% due beyond one year, indicating stability in the housing market despite credit tightening.

The fundamental issue is the structurally insufficient housing supply in Geneva, unable to meet a robust and resilient demand fueled by solid economic dynamics and employment.

The Geneva housing market is expected to remain stable, with no signs of a collapse, supported by strong economic fundamentals.