ЦБ снизил ставку! Какие акции растут? Рекордные дивиденды Сбера

Summary

The video provides a detailed analysis of Russia's financial and economic landscape, focusing on recent corporate earnings, dividends, and stock market performance. Highlights include Sberbank's record dividends, Rosneft's growth amidst oil price volatility, and the impact of inflation and interest rates on the market. The video also touches on new IPOs, tax policies affecting Russian businesses, and forecasts for various sectors like energy, metals, and technology. The expert analysts provide insights on stocks, bond yields, and economic trends, making it a comprehensive update for investors.

Takeaways

• 💰 Sberbank announced record dividends of 37.64 ₽ per share, with a yield of approximately 11.6%, pending shareholder approval on June 30.
• 🛢️ Russian stock market stagnates despite global oil price increase; index remains flat, with select companies like Rosneft (+17%) driving limited growth.
• 📈 Leading stock performers are smaller companies less sensitive to geopolitics or interest rates: VMP (+50%), VTB (+30%), UGK (+40%), subsidiaries of Rosseti (+25–40%).
• 🏦 The Russian Central Bank cut the key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points; bond market reacted negatively due to cautious guidance and inflation concerns.
• 🪙 Gold prices rose 10% in April, reaffirming its role as a reserve asset during market turbulence.
• 🪓 The potential windfall profits tax may moderately impact investment attractiveness, with gold mining and Transneft most affected, while most banks could face minor effects.
• 💵 Ruble remains strong as the Ministry of Finance is not actively purchasing foreign currency; dollar expected to rise to 80–85 ₽ if purchases resume.
• 📊 Companies with strong earnings: Promomed (+75% revenue, +149% net profit) and One AI preparing IPO with projected EBITDA 24–28% and revenue growth 18–22% annually.
• 🏭 Metallurgical companies like Severstal and MMK saw declining revenue and net profit, while debt levels increased, highlighting sector stress.
• 📅 Upcoming corporate events: Q1 results for Ozom Pharmaceutical, Yandex, Sber, X5, Dom RF; dividend decisions for Tatneft; regulatory overview by the Central Bank.
• 📉 Investment insights: Russian bond funds offer high liquidity and moderate risk, while CFD contracts allow exposure to foreign assets without ownership risks.
• 🚀 Market opportunities include trading TMK long with a 3-month target of 100 ₽ per share, supported by geopolitical and monetary policy factors.

Q & A

What record dividends did Sberbank announce and when will the shareholders vote?

Sberbank announced dividends of 37.64 rubles per share for 2025, representing about 50% of the previous year's net profit. The final decision on dividends will be made by shareholders on June 30.

How has the Russian stock market performed this year and why?

The Russian stock market has been stagnant with zero change in the MOEX index since the beginning of the year. Despite a 60% rise in global oil prices and a slight strengthening of the ruble, only Rosneft shares increased significantly, while other oil companies showed minimal gains.

Which companies showed the most growth despite geopolitical and interest rate concerns?

Companies not highly monitored by investors but less sensitive to geopolitics or interest rates performed well. Examples include VMP (+50%), VTB (+30%), UGK (+40%), and subsidiaries of Rosseti (+25-40%).

What was the Central Bank of Russia's recent monetary policy action and its impact?

The Central Bank of Russia cut the key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, aligning with market expectations. However, the bond market reacted negatively due to concerns about future rate ranges, inflation risks, and external factors.

How did gold perform in April and why is it significant?

Gold prices rose by 10% in April. It is significant because gold serves as a reserve asset during periods of market turbulence and remains a source of liquidity for funds and central banks, indicating renewed investor interest.

Which sectors and companies are most affected by the potential new superprofit tax?

The superprofit tax is moderately negative for investment attractiveness. Among metals, gold mining companies are at highest risk, with Polus potentially paying up to 2% of its capitalization. In the oil sector, Transneft could be affected by about 0.5% of market capitalization. Most financial sector companies under coverage may also face this tax.

What are the key drivers for the recent stock performance of Rosneft and UGK?

Rosneft's recent rise to 500 rubles per share was driven by high oil prices and low dividend payouts in the sector. UGK shares jumped 30% due to news on state share valuations and the upcoming announcement of a new owner.

What is the forecast for the Russian inflation rate and how might it affect monetary policy?

As of April 20, annual inflation was 5.68%, down from 5.75% a week earlier. Inflation expectations are also decreasing, suggesting that the Central Bank may maintain tight monetary policy in the medium term, though risks remain, especially in the second half of the year.

What companies are expected to report significant earnings growth, and which showed declines?

Promomed reported strong growth with revenue up 75%, EBITDA up 86%, and net profit up 149%. Conversely, Severstal reported declines in Q1 2026, with revenue down 19%, EBITDA down 54%, and net profit down 93% due to falling prices and volumes.

What are the main points regarding upcoming IPOs and investment opportunities?

Fabrika One AI is entering the IPO stage with a price of 25 rubles per share and expected capitalization of 14 billion rubles. It forecasts 18-22% annual revenue growth and 24-28% EBITDA margins over the next 5 years. The company plans dividends of 25% of net profit for 2025.

What is the outlook for the ruble and currency markets?

The ruble remains strong as the Ministry of Finance is not currently buying foreign currency. However, if it resumes purchases, the ruble could weaken. Analysts expect the US dollar to reach 80-85 rubles under these conditions.

Which corporate bonds and OFZ issues are currently recommended for investment?

Recommended corporate bonds include APRI, Wush, Etalon, Aerofuels, Avtoban, Glorx, Brusnika, and GTLK. OFZ issues such as 26243, 26245, 246, 247, 248, 253, and 254 are expected to yield 12% by Q2 2027, with overall OFZ index potentially bringing 24% annual returns.