If US and China Go To War, Who Loses (Hour by Hour)

Summary

In this detailed scenario, China's leader Xi Jinping initiates a coordinated cyber and missile attack on the United States and its Pacific allies. As China targets American infrastructure and military bases, the U.S. scrambles to defend itself while facing unprecedented cyber disruptions. Xi's bold moves to secure the Pacific and invade Taiwan are met with fierce resistance. The U.S. and its allies, leveraging economic sanctions and NATO support, counterattack, leading to a devastating conflict that ultimately forces China to capitulate. The scenario highlights the complexity and global impact of a potential war between these superpowers, exploring strategic decisions, military tactics, and geopolitical alliances.

Takeaways

• 🚀 China’s military modernization under Xi Jinping has made significant advancements, including nuclear weapons and one of the largest navies in the world.
• 💻 The initial stage of China’s attack on the United States focuses on cyber warfare, targeting American infrastructure and military systems to disrupt responses and aid delivery to Taiwan.
• 🎯 China's strategic goal is to secure a passage through the Pacific, with Taiwan as a primary target to break through U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea.
• 🔥 The missile attacks target U.S. bases in Japan, South Korea, Guam, and Hawaii, aiming to weaken America's rapid response capabilities.
• 🛡️ Despite cyber and missile assaults, the U.S. activates its missile defense systems, which manage to intercept many but not all of China’s missiles.
• ⚔️ Taiwan's defense, including its Patriot air defense system, withstands initial missile barrages, preparing for a ground invasion that faces extensive fortifications.
• 🌏 U.S. allies in NATO and Asia rally to support America, leveraging economic sanctions and trade blockades to further weaken China.
• 🚢 The U.S. counterattacks with a powerful naval force, including NATO and allied navies, and utilizes advanced tactics like the Rapid Dragon missile drops to turn the tide.
• ✈️ Air superiority shifts as the U.S. and its allies conduct continuous missile barrages, crippling Chinese airbases and cutting off naval routes into Taiwan.
• 🛑 The economic and military strain on China, coupled with the strong allied response, forces Xi to consider the possibility of losing the war without resorting to nuclear options.

Q & A

What are some of the key military assets that China has developed over the past decade?

China has modernized its military with nuclear weapons (around 500), one of the world's largest navies, and 2.035 million active military personnel.

Why is Xi Jinping planning cyberattacks as the first stage of his assault on the United States?

Xi plans cyberattacks to hack into American infrastructure and military defense systems, limiting America's response to the attack and disrupting critical services.

How did the United States previously counter Chinese cyberattacks?

In December 2023, the United States conducted an operation to disrupt a network of SOHO routers that China had taken control of using the KV Botnet.

What is the strategic importance of Taiwan in Xi Jinping's plan?

Taiwan is crucial because by securing it, China can break through the Pacific nations allied with the United States, including Japan and South Korea, and clear a route to the American mainland.

What are the primary targets of China's missile barrage in the initial stages of the conflict?

China targets U.S. bases in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, as well as the U.S. Pacific Fleet and American ships in the Pacific.

How does the United States plan to defend against China's missile barrage?

The U.S. relies on its missile defense systems, including DSP satellites and Ground-Based Interceptors stationed in Alaska and California, to detect and destroy incoming missiles.

What role does the U.S. Space Force play in the conflict?

The U.S. Space Force oversees DSP satellites, which detect China's missile launches, giving the U.S. time to organize its defenses.

How does the international community, including NATO, respond to China's attack on the United States?

NATO and other U.S. allies support America, invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter, which considers an attack on one member an attack on all, thereby bringing Europe and other allies into the conflict.

What are some of the economic measures taken by the United States to weaken China during the conflict?

The U.S. organizes heavy sanctions against China, cutting off its import of goods, equipment, and oil, creating a trade blockade that limits China's resources.

What is the outcome of the initial invasion attempts on Taiwan by China?

China's attempts to invade Taiwan face fierce resistance, with Taiwan using missile strikes, beach combat, and urban warfare tactics to delay and repel Chinese forces.