Le rebond de la Bourse américaine va-t-il se poursuivre ?

Summary

The discussion focuses on the recovery of the U.S. tech sector, particularly the 'GAFA' companies, following initial fears sparked by Trump's tariff announcements. The speakers analyze the rally, crediting factors like oversold conditions, strong earnings reports from major tech players like Microsoft and Netflix, and resilience in the S&P 500. Despite the positive outlook, they caution that volatility remains high, particularly ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. They also touch on the impact of the U.S. labor market and Federal Reserve decisions, suggesting that while the market may have reached a short-term peak, caution is advised moving forward.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tech stocks in the US are rebounding, particularly the major tech companies like Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, and Alphabet.
• 😀 The sharp market drop earlier this year was caused by fear over tariff announcements from Trump, but this fear seems to have been overestimated.
• 😀 Indicators such as the VIX, which spiked to extreme levels, suggested that much of the bad news had already been priced into the market.
• 😀 Microsoft's strong results, particularly in AI, demonstrated solid growth, debunking concerns about its investments in the sector.
• 😀 Other companies like Netflix also posted strong earnings, while Amazon's results were more mixed, especially in cloud computing.
• 😀 Apple's performance was weaker, with a minimal growth rate and concerns over higher costs due to trade tariffs, but it is reconfiguring its supply chain.
• 😀 Overall, the S&P 500 and tech stocks are performing well, with many companies exceeding earnings expectations.
• 😀 Despite a strong earnings season, the market is not overly overvalued, with the Nasdaq trading at around a 26-27x earnings multiple, which is within historical norms.
• 😀 The market is experiencing a short-term rally, but caution is advised as there is a lot of uncertainty ahead, including Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.
• 😀 The Federal Reserve is likely to remain in a pause mode due to strong employment data and moderate growth, suggesting that consolidation in the market is possible.
• 😀 While there has been a significant rally in the market, especially in tech stocks, there is still uncertainty about future performance, and a correction might be in store.

Q & A

What is the main reason for the recent recovery of American tech stocks?

The main reasons for the recovery include a correction after a period of market fear, strong corporate earnings from major tech companies, and positive economic indicators, particularly in employment data.

How did the market react to the trade announcements by Trump in April?

Initially, the market reacted negatively, with many investors pulling back on their positions. However, the recovery of tech stocks shows that much of the negative sentiment has been absorbed and priced in.

What role did the VIX (volatility index) play in the market's recovery?

The VIX reached extreme levels, indicating heightened market fear. As the volatility decreased, it helped support the market's recovery as investors regained confidence.

Why was Microsoft’s performance particularly notable during the recovery?

Microsoft's earnings were strong, especially in AI, and the company not only maintained its investment programs but even increased its stock buyback program, signaling confidence in its future growth.

How did Amazon’s earnings report affect its stock price?

Amazon's earnings were robust overall, but the cloud division showed weaker-than-expected results, leading to more modest growth in its stock price compared to other tech companies.

What concerns arose from Apple's earnings report?

Apple's earnings showed minimal growth (1-2%), and the company faced additional costs from reworking its supply chain due to trade tensions, particularly with China, which led to a drop in stock performance.

What does the current valuation of the Nasdaq indicate about the market?

The Nasdaq’s valuation has returned to a more reasonable level of 26-27x price-to-earnings ratio, which is close to historical averages. This suggests the market is not overly inflated, despite the recovery.

Why is Nvidia's upcoming earnings report seen as a critical moment for the market?

Nvidia's earnings report is critical because the company has shown extraordinary growth in the past, and investors are expecting a strong performance. A disappointment could trigger a market correction, while strong results could solidify the rally.

What impact did hedge funds’ positions have on the recent rally in tech stocks?

Hedge funds that had bet against tech stocks (short positions) were forced to close those positions as the market rallied, which accelerated the upward movement, particularly in non-profitable tech companies.

What is the current outlook for the tech market in the short term?

While there has been a strong rally, the outlook suggests caution. After such a rapid rise (16% on the Nasdaq), a period of consolidation and potential volatility is expected, especially in tech stocks. The market is not expected to go much higher in the near term.