Driving Factors Behind The Sharp Rise And Drastic Decline Of Gold & Silver Prices, And What's Next.

Summary

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the recent fluctuations in the gold and silver markets, emphasizing the role of profit-taking by investors after significant price increases. He dispels rumors of market manipulation, highlighting the intellectual asymmetry and misinformation prevalent in these markets. Christian also addresses the lack of oil price spike following Iran's missile attack on Israel, attributing it to oil exporters' desire to avoid a recession and lower demand. He outlines CPM Group's historical and current recommendations on precious metals investments, noting their buy recommendations for gold since 2000 and silver since 2019, and cautions against relying on marketing reports that may mislead investors.

Takeaways

• 📈 The gold and silver markets have been moving higher since the beginning of March, with a particularly steep increase on the last Friday mentioned.
• 📉 Prices fell sharply after the increase due to widespread profit-taking from investors around the world, which is a common occurrence after sharp rises.
• 💰 There is a significant amount of misinformation in the precious metals markets, with over a billion dollars flowing into commodity index funds, which can lead to distorted market behavior.
• 🌐 The rise in precious metal prices was due to broad-based buying from investors globally, not just a single large investor or entity.
• ⏰ Many market participants take profits before the weekend, especially after periods of sharp price increases.
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury is not likely to be behind any price manipulation of gold and silver, as it holds a significant amount of gold and has no incentive to decrease its value.
• 🛢️ Oil prices did not spike after the missile attack on Saudi Arabia due to oil exporters not wanting to raise prices during a weakening global economy.
• 🔍 Major oil companies and the U.S. have interests in keeping oil prices stable and are unlikely to push for higher prices that could lead to a recession.
• ⛴ The presence of the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf protects oil tankers and has historically reduced risks, which is why oil prices did not rise during the mentioned conflict.
• 📚 CPM Group's research and recommendations on gold and silver are based on in-depth analysis and have been consistent over the years, with buy recommendations in place since 2019 for silver and around 2013-2014 for gold.
• ⏳ CPM Group is planning to release a silver yearbook with definitive statistics on supply, demand, and usage in solar panels, aiming to clear up misinformation about silver deficits and shortages.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic of discussion is the gold market, with some extent to the silver market, focusing on the factors behind the rise and fall in precious metals prices.

When did the gold and silver markets start moving higher according to the speaker?

The gold and silver markets started moving higher since the beginning of March.

What was the speaker's view on the steep increase in gold and silver prices on the mentioned Friday?

The speaker believes the steep increase was due to broad-based buying around the world by investors, and not because of any single large investor or institution.

Why did the speaker say that prices fell sharply on Friday?

The prices fell sharply due to profit-taking by short-term investors, especially going into the weekend.

What does the speaker think about the misinformation circulating in the gold, silver, and platinum group metals markets?

The speaker is concerned about the bad information and its effect on misleading investors, emphasizing the intellectual asymmetry and the vulnerability of these markets to misinformation.

What is the speaker's opinion on the idea that the US Treasury would be behind a price slam down in gold and silver?

The speaker finds the idea incredulous, stating that the US Treasury has no rational reason to wish for lower gold prices and that it has more to gain from rising gold prices.

Why did the speaker say there was no spike in oil prices after the missile attack by Iran?

The speaker explains that no oil exporter wants to raise oil prices at a time when the global economy is weakening, as it would lead to lower oil demand and probably lower oil prices in a recession.

What is the speaker's stance on the CPM group's intermediate term gold recommendations?

The speaker states that CPM group has historically been correct about 68% of the time with their recommendations, and they have maintained a buy recommendation on gold since around 2013-2014.

What is the projected timeline for silver prices to rise according to the speaker?

The speaker has been talking about silver rising to average well over $30 at some point in the years 2024, 2025, 2026.

Why does the speaker believe that platinum prices are low despite claims of a market deficit?

The speaker asserts that the market is not in a deficit but has been in a surplus for most of the last half-century, which explains the lower platinum prices.

What is the speaker's advice regarding the use of free data from marketing reports on precious metals?

The speaker advises caution, stating that if the free data suggests a deficit and higher prices, it may be marketing and not based on sound research.

What is the speaker's final message to the audience?

The speaker encourages the audience to take care of themselves and others, and to contribute positively to the world, even in small ways like picking up garbage.