PAULO ARTAXO, ASTROFÍSICO DA USP: "BRASIL SERÁ O MAIS AFETADO PELAS MUDANÇAS NO CLIMA" | Cortes 247

Summary

A professor from USP discussed climate change at a government meeting, highlighting Brazil's significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from deforestation and agriculture. He emphasized the country's role as one of the top 10 emitters and warned of severe impacts from climate change, including increased temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events. The Amazon's potential degradation, which could release vast amounts of carbon, was also highlighted as a critical concern for global warming.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The professor discussed the global climate issue, highlighting the continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite the Paris Agreement and 50 years of scientific warnings.
• 📈 Greenhouse gas emissions are approximately 62 billion tons annually, with carbon dioxide being the majority, and Brazil's deforestation and agriculture contribute significantly to these emissions.
• 🗺️ Brazil ranks seventh in total greenhouse gas emissions and fourth in per capita emissions, indicating a substantial responsibility in global climate change.
• 🔍 The source of Brazil's emission data is the UNEP GAP report, which provides crucial information for understanding the country's environmental impact.
• 🌡️ According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if current emission trends continue without significant reduction, the planet could warm by an average of 4.3°C.
• 🏞️ The Amazon rainforest is critical for climate change mitigation, as it stores 120 billion tons of carbon. Its degradation could exacerbate global warming.
• 🌧️ Climate models predict significant changes in rainfall patterns, with central and Amazon regions of Brazil becoming much drier, affecting agriculture and water resources.
• 🌊 Coastal regions like Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are expected to receive more rainfall, which could lead to increased flooding and urban planning challenges.
• ⚠️ There has been a fourfold increase in extreme climate events since the 1980s, with a strong scientific prediction of their intensification and increased frequency.
• 🏙️ Cities like São Paulo are experiencing more intense rainfall events, which can lead to urban flooding and strain on infrastructure.
• 🌱 The Amazon is at risk of a critical transition, which could release vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, significantly impacting global climate goals.

Q & A

What was the main topic of the professor's presentation at the government meeting?

The main topic was the issue of climate change, specifically discussing the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on global warming.

What is the current global emission rate of greenhouse gases?

Currently, approximately 62 billion tons of greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere annually.

What percentage of Brazil's emissions are associated with deforestation?

In Brazil, 48% of emissions are associated with deforestation.

What is the source of the data on Brazilian emissions mentioned in the script?

The data on Brazilian emissions comes from the UNEP GAP report.

What is Brazil's rank in terms of total greenhouse gas emissions?

Brazil is the seventh-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in terms of total emissions.

How does Brazil rank in terms of per capita greenhouse gas emissions?

Brazil is the fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases on a per capita basis.

What is the projected global temperature increase if current emission trends continue without significant reduction?

If current emission trends continue without significant reduction, the planet could warm by an average of 4.3°C.

What is the projected temperature increase if the Paris Agreement is implemented in a very rigorous manner?

With a very rigorous implementation of the Paris Agreement, the temperature increase could be limited to 2.8°C.

How does the geographical distribution of global warming affect Brazil specifically?

In a scenario of 3°C global warming, Brazil is expected to warm by approximately 4°C to 4.5°C, which will have a significant impact on ecosystems, rainfall, and public health.

What changes in rainfall patterns are predicted for Brazil due to climate change?

Climate models predict that central and Amazonian regions will become much drier, while the southern regions like Rio Grande do Sul, Florianópolis, and Santa Catarina will receive more rainfall.

How has the availability of water in the Cerrado region changed over the past 30 years?

In the past 30 years, 76% of municipalities in the Cerrado have lost surface water, with a large fraction losing up to 75% of their water.

What is the increase factor in extreme climate events since the 1980s?

Extreme climate events have increased by a factor of 4 since the 1980s.

How does the future of extreme climate events look according to climate models?

Climate models predict that an event that occurred every 50 years in the early 20th century will become 39 times more frequent and 5 times more intense.

Why is the Amazon region crucial in the context of climate change?

The Amazon region is crucial because it stores 120 billion tons of carbon, and if a fraction of this carbon is released into the atmosphere, it could significantly exacerbate global warming scenarios.

What is the potential impact of climate change on tropical regions like Brazil?

Tropical regions like Brazil are expected to be the most strongly impacted by climate change, with significant implications for agriculture, water availability, and overall ecosystem health.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Climate Change and Brazil's Emissions

The speaker, a professor from USP, discusses the critical issue of climate change in a government meeting. Despite the Paris Agreement and 50 years of scientific warnings, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, with approximately 62 billion tons emitted annually. Brazil is associated with 48% of these emissions due to deforestation and 27% from agriculture. The UNEP GAP report indicates Brazil as the seventh-largest emitter in total and fourth-largest emitter per capita. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that without significant emission reductions, global warming could reach 4.3°C, with moderate reductions under the Paris Agreement, it could be 3.7°C. In a 3°C warmer scenario, Brazil could experience a temperature rise of 4° to 4.5°C, severely impacting ecosystems, rainfall, and public health. Climate models predict increased aridity in central Brazil and the Amazon, with reduced precipitation and increased rainfall in southern states like Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The professor also discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as those experienced in Rio Grande do Sul and the Amazon, which have quadrupled since the 1980s.

05:03

🌳 The Amazon's Role in Climate Change

The professor emphasizes the Amazon's pivotal role in climate change. Deforestation contributes to global warming, but recent data suggest that global warming is degrading the Amazon ecosystem, threatening the 120 billion tons of carbon stored there. A critical transition in the Amazon ecosystem could be imminent, as indicated by a study published in the prestigious journal Nature. The Amazon's health is crucial as it could exacerbate global warming if carbon is released. The speaker also highlights that tropical regions, including Brazil, will be disproportionately affected by climate change compared to temperate regions like Sweden, Norway, or Canada. The lecture concludes with an applause, indicating the importance and impact of the discussed issues.

Keywords

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It is the central theme of the video, with the professor discussing the dangerous trajectory humanity is on due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The script mentions the Paris Agreement and the ongoing warnings from science over the past 50 years, indicating the urgency and global nature of the issue.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases that trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, leading to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The script emphasizes that despite the Paris Agreement, emissions of these gases continue to rise, with carbon dioxide being the primary contributor. This term is crucial for understanding the causes of climate change discussed in the video.

💡Deforestation

Deforestation is the removal of trees and forests, which contributes to climate change by reducing the number of carbon sinks and increasing carbon dioxide levels. The script states that 48% of Brazil's emissions are associated with deforestation, highlighting its significant impact on the country's contribution to climate change.

💡Agriculture

Agriculture is mentioned in the context of being a source of greenhouse gas emissions, with approximately 27% of Brazil's emissions coming from this sector. The script implies the need to consider sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate climate change.

💡UNEP GAP Report

The UNEP GAP Report, or United Nations Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report, is a document cited in the script that provides data on greenhouse gas emissions. It is used to substantiate the professor's claims about Brazil's ranking in terms of total and per capita emissions, emphasizing the country's role in global climate change.

💡Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty aimed at combating climate change by limiting global warming. The script discusses the agreement's goals and the projections for global temperature rise with and without its implementation, illustrating the potential impact of international climate policy.

💡IPCC

IPCC stands for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific body that assesses climate change. The script references IPCC projections for future climate scenarios, emphasizing the potential severity of global warming if current emission trends continue.

💡Temperature Increase

Temperature increase refers to the rise in average global temperatures due to climate change. The script provides different scenarios of temperature rise, from 2.8°C to 4.3°C, depending on emission reduction efforts, illustrating the potential consequences of climate change.

💡Precipitation Patterns

Precipitation patterns are weather patterns related to rainfall. The script discusses changes in these patterns, with central and Amazon regions of Brazil becoming drier and the south experiencing increased rainfall. These changes can significantly impact agriculture and water resources.

💡Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events are unusually severe or unseasonal weather occurrences. The script mentions a fourfold increase in such events since the 1980s, including floods and droughts, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense. This highlights the immediate and severe impacts of climate change.

💡Amazon Rainforest

The Amazon Rainforest is highlighted as a key component of the climate system due to its vast carbon storage capacity. The script discusses how global warming could degrade the Amazon ecosystem, potentially releasing stored carbon and exacerbating climate change. This underscores the global significance of tropical regions like Brazil in the context of climate change.

Highlights

The professor discussed the climate issue at a government meeting, emphasizing the ongoing increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite the Paris Agreement and scientific warnings.

Humanity is on a dangerous trajectory regarding climate change, with approximately 62 billion tons of greenhouse gases emitted annually.

In Brazil, 48% of emissions are associated with deforestation, and an additional 27% come from agriculture.

The UNEP GAP report is the source of Brazil's emission numbers, indicating Brazil is the 7th largest emitter in total and 4th per capita.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature increase of 4.3°C if current emission trends continue.

Even with a moderate implementation of the Paris Agreement, a temperature rise of 3.7°C is expected.

A more rigorous implementation of the Paris Agreement could limit the temperature increase to 2.8°C.

Brazil is expected to warm more than the global average, with a potential increase of 4°C to 4.5°C.

Climate change will have a significant impact on ecosystems, rainfall, and public health in Brazil.

Climate models predict a drier central and Amazon regions, contrasting with increased rainfall in the south of Brazil.

A reduction of 30-40% in precipitation is predicted for the Cerrado region, where agribusiness is established.

Over the last 30 years, 76% of municipalities in the Cerrado have lost surface water, with some losing up to 75%.

The increase in extreme climate events has been observed since the 1980s, with a fourfold increase from then until now.

The Brazilian Panel on Climate Change's 2011 report already indicated increased extreme events in Rio Grande do Sul.

Urban areas like São Paulo have seen a slight increase in precipitation since 1935, but the number of heavy rain days has quadrupled.

Climate models forecast that events that occurred once every 50 years will become 39 times more frequent and five times more intense.

The Amazon is crucial for climate change mitigation, as it stores 120 billion tons of carbon and its degradation could exacerbate global warming.

Tropical regions, including Brazil, will be the most affected by climate change.

Transcripts

o professor fez uma exposição ontem numa

reunião de governo aqui nessa sala sobre

a questão do clima ele é físico da USP e

eu achei muito interessante trazer para

vocês a apresentação que ele fez para

nós bom Presidente Agradeço o convite

para trazer um tema tão relevante

importante paraa discussão para esse

plenário e basicamente eh nós estamos

aqui nessa sala discutindo por causa

deste gráfico que é que as emissões

apesar do acordo de Paris apesar da

ciência mais 50 anos alertar que a

humanidade está indo para uma trajetória

perigosa do ponto de vista de mudança do

clima essencialmente as concentrações de

gás de efeito estufa continuam a

aumentar estamos emitindo cerca de 62

bilhões de toneladas a cada ano de gás

de efeito estufa para atmosfera estamos

aqui a maior parte dos gases de efeito

estufa é dióxido de carbono no Brasil

48% de nossas emissões estão Associados

com o desmatamento e cerca de 27 por

adicionais são emissões da agropecuária

o vice-presidente Alkmin ontem me

perguntou sobre esses números de onde

saem os números das emissões brasileiras

né Eles saem deste relatório da UNEP

chama-se UNEP GAP report né eu vou já

peguei o e-mail vou mandar pra sua

assessoria que coloca que do ponto de

vista de emissões totais de gás de

efeito estufa o Brasil é o sétimo maior

emissor do ponto de vista de emissões

per capita o Brasil é o quarto maior

emissor então nós temos sim eh culpa no

cartório nós somos sim um dos 10 maiores

emissores de gás de efeito estufa com a

responsabilidade pelo que a gente eh

está observando e quanto ao futuro o

painel intergovernamental de mudanças

climáticas que eu faço parte faz

projeções pro futuro do clima do nosso

planeta de acordo com vários cenários de

emissões num cenário de emissões que

continuaríamos a emitir Como estamos

fazendo hoje sem nenhuma basicamente

redução o planeta pode se aquecer em

média 4.3 GC num cenário de

implementação do acordo de Paris e

razoavelmente mediano um cenário de 3.7

g de aquecimento e o acordo de Paris

implementado de uma maneira muito

rigorosa um aumento de temperatura de

2.8 GC então vejam a gravidade da

situação que nós estamos levando não só

o planeta mas também o Brasil porque do

ponto de vista da distribuição

geográfica deste deste aquecimento num

planeta 3º mais quente as regiões

continentais se aquecem mais do que as

regiões oceânicas o oceano é

75% da área do nosso planeta E no caso

de um cenário de 3º o Brasil se

aqueceria da ordem de 4° a 4,5 de

temperatura em média Isto vai ter um

impacto enorme sobre os nossos

ecossistemas sobre a quantidade de chuva

sobre a saúde da população e assim por

diante mas o clima Alé nem de ser

temperatura também temos alteração no

padrão de chuva e aí é que é uma questão

chave pro Brasil com uma economia que

basicamente depende do agronegócio o os

modelos climáticos prevêem que a parte

central e a parte da Amazônia vai ser

muito mais seca do que ela tem sido nos

últimos 30 40 50 anos né E vai chover

mais no sul do Brasil Rio Grande do Sul

Florianópolis eh Santa Catarina e assim

por diante então vejam que um cenário

onde eh redução de precipitação de 30 a

40% na área do serrado onde hoje temos O

agronegócio estruturado está sendo

previsto por basicamente todos os

modelos climáticos isso também é

previsto pela Embrapa né isso daqui é

uma publicação da Embrapa de 2019 que

mostra desde a década de 80 o avanço das

regiões com alto índice hídrico ou muito

alto índice hídrico veja o que acontece

nessa década essa região atingindo

Tocantins Goiás Mato Grosso e na próxima

década atingindo até a região de

Rondônia

então Oi é a déficit hídrico muito alto

déficit hídrico ou alto déficit hídrico

Então o que a gente observa é que o

serrado e a amazone já estão se tornando

mais secos né um dos eventos que associa

com essas queimadas análises do Map

biomas água né ah feitas recentemente

mostram que 76% dos Municípios do

serrado perderam superfície de água nos

últimos 30 anos sendo que uma fração

grande deles perderam até 75% da água

então isso são dados de várias fontes

diferentes de resultados de modelagem

resultados de medidas e todas convergem

pra mesma questão outro aspecto das

mudanças climáticas globais é o aumento

de eventos climáticos extremos como nós

vimos no Rio Grande do Sul como estamos

vendo com a de 2023 e 2024 na Amazônia e

eles já aumentaram por fator 4ro desde a

década de 80 do século passado né e eu

enfatizo que isso é muito bem previsto

pela ciência porque o relatório do

painel brasileiro de mudanças climáticas

que fizemos em 2011 já mostrava que Rio

Grande do Sul era uma região que poderia

sofrer muito mais eh eventos climáticos

extremos e grandes cheias e que é

efetivamente o que a gente tá observando

agora né Mesmo se vai para uma escala

Urbana nós temos que cuidar das nossas

cidades né você vê que a cidade de São

Paulo a precipitação tá aumentando

levemente desde

1935 mas o número de dias de chuva que

chove mais de 100 mm ou seja uma chuva

muito forte multiplicou por quatro nesse

período então quando chove chove muito

mais intenso o que é ruim paraas cidades

é ruim paraa agricultura e é ruim PR os

ecossistemas né bom e o futuro dos

eventos climáticos extremos né os

modelos climáticos prevêem que um evento

que ocorria a cada 50 anos no início do

século passado vai se tornar 39 vezes

mais frequente e vai ser cinco vezes

mais intenso então basicamente o que a

gente está observando esse crescimento

de eventos climáticos extremos e é

importante perceber Nós estamos vendo o

início deste processo ele vai se agravar

conforme o aquecimento vai se agravando

e o nosso país tem obviamente que se

preparar para isso né falando um pouco

da questão amazônica né a Amazônia é

chave paraa questão das mudanças

climáticas por várias razões uma delas é

que as emissões de gás de efeito estufa

por queimadas da Amazônia alimentam o

aquecimento global mas mais recentemente

temos tido muitos dados da ciência

Brasileira de que o aquecimento global

está trazendo uma degradação do

ecossistema amazônico e isso é

importante porque a Amazônia tem 120

bilhões de toneladas de carbono

armazenado naquele ecossistema e se uma

fração desse carbono for pra atmosfera

aqueles cenários que nós vimos do ipcc

podem se tornar muito mais importante e

mais drásticos né isto foi capa de uma

revista importante capa da revista

Nature a revista mais importante de

ciência do mundo feito por brasileiros

que mostra que uma transição crítica do

ecossistema da Amazônia não está muito

longe né Carlos Nobre também fala isso

há 10 15 anos importante saber que

regiões tropicais como o Brasil vão ser

as regiões mais fortemente impactadas

pela mudança climática né então a

mudança climática não vai afetar a

Suécia Noruega Canadá ou Brasil

igualmente os países tropicais vão ser

os mais prejudicados incluindo

[Aplausos]

nós he