Can India beat China in the Energy race? : Detailed Case Study
Summary
TLDR该视频脚本深入探讨了印度太阳能行业的潜力与机遇,特别是在政府推出屋顶太阳能计划后。脚本分析了政府政策对市场的影响,指出了太阳能行业的增长前景,并强调了印度在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产方面的挑战与机遇。同时,提到了印度太阳能出口市场的快速增长,以及中国在全球太阳能供应链中的主导地位。脚本鼓励投资者和企业家关注太阳能行业的动态,把握政府政策带来的投资机会。
Takeaways
- 📈 政府在市场中扮演关键角色,其政策和预算对股市有显著影响。
- 🌱 印度政府推动的太阳能行业,尤其是屋顶太阳能计划,为投资者和企业家提供了巨大机遇。
- 🔄 太阳能价值链包括硅石开采、硅提炼、多晶硅制造、太阳能电池和组件生产等环节。
- 🏭 印度在多晶硅和硅片生产方面落后,但太阳能电池和组件生产能力正在迅速增长。
- 🌐 由于中国在太阳能价值链中的主导地位,印度有机会通过本土生产减少对进口的依赖。
- 💡 屋顶太阳能计划预计将显著提升太阳能面板的需求,同时促进相关材料和技术的发展。
- 🚀 印度太阳能出口市场正在迅速扩张,特别是在美国市场,提供了巨大的出口机会。
- 💰 政府补贴和激励措施有助于降低太阳能面板的成本,提高其在家庭和工业中的普及率。
- 🔄 通过净计量制度,太阳能用户可以将多余的电力卖回电网,进一步降低电力成本。
- 🏢 印度的太阳能公司,如Adani Solar和Tata Solar,可能因政府政策支持而成为市场的受益者。
- 📊 投资者应密切关注太阳能及其价值链相关股票,以便抓住投资机会。
Q & A
印度市场和全球市场的根本真理是什么?
-印度市场和全球市场的根本真理是,当政府这个市场的“教父”发表言论时,听从的人会繁荣,不听从的人则会衰败。
印度政府宣布预算或重大声明时,哪些公司的股票价格会上涨?
-每当印度政府发布预算或重大声明时,那些与政府政策相关的公司,如乙醇混合燃料政策下的糖业公司,其股票价格会上涨。
印度政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设对水泥行业有何影响?
-印度政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设,导致水泥行业的股票价格上升,因为这些项目需要大量的水泥。
印度政府在2024年2月1日宣布了什么太阳能行业的重大机遇?
-印度政府宣布了一个名为“屋顶太阳能计划”的项目,旨在在一年内在100万个家庭的屋顶上安装太阳能板。
屋顶太阳能计划对太阳能模块的需求有何影响?
-屋顶太阳能计划将导致对太阳能模块、太阳能板、太阳能玻璃、电线、逆变器甚至多晶硅的需求激增。
印度政府为鼓励太阳能板安装提供了哪些补贴?
-印度政府为安装超过1千瓦时的太阳能板提供超过30万卢比的补贴,对于最贫困的家庭,政府甚至每月免费提供300个单位的电力。
太阳能板的成本和收益如何计算?
-太阳能板的成本计算需要考虑面板安装费用、逆变器费用和安装杂费。而收益则是通过节省的电费和可能的太阳能销售收入来计算。
印度在太阳能价值链中的地位如何?
-印度在太阳能价值链中主要依赖进口,特别是在多晶硅、硅锭和硅片的生产上。但印度在太阳能电池和模块的生产方面表现较好。
印度太阳能行业面临的主要挑战是什么?
-印度太阳能行业面临的主要挑战是多晶硅、硅锭和硅片的生产能力不足,以及与中国等国家在太阳能产品价格上的竞争。
印度太阳能行业的投资和创业机会在哪里?
-印度太阳能行业的投资和创业机会在于太阳能板的生产、融资服务、保险服务以及出口市场,特别是随着美国对中国太阳能产品的进口限制,印度的出口潜力巨大。
印度政府如何支持太阳能行业的发展?
-印度政府通过提供补贴、免费电力、进口关税等措施来支持太阳能行业的发展,同时也鼓励国内生产以减少对中国的依赖。
Outlines
🌐 政府政策对市场的影响
该段落讨论了政府政策对印度市场以及全球市场的影响。政府被视为市场的“教父”,其发言和政策变动直接影响着市场的繁荣与衰败。文章以印度政府为例,说明了政府预算发布或重要公告时,某些公司的股票价格会上涨,而另一些则会下跌。通过乙醇混合的例子,说明了政策变动如何迅速影响特定股票的价格。此外,还提到了政府在公路建设上的大量资本支出如何带动经济增长和就业,以及水泥股票的非凡回报。
💡 太阳能行业的机遇与挑战
这一部分深入探讨了太阳能行业在印度的机遇与挑战。首先,通过计算太阳能板的成本和家庭电费的节省,说明了太阳能板对印度家庭的经济意义。然后,讨论了印度在太阳能价值链中的位置,特别是中国在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产方面的主导地位。此外,还提到了印度政府为推动国内生产和减少对中国依赖所做的努力,以及印度太阳能产品出口的快速增长。
🏭 太阳能产业链的国际竞争
本段内容聚焦于太阳能产业链的国际竞争格局。详细讨论了从硅矿石到太阳能电池板的整个生产过程,以及不同国家在这一过程中的角色。特别指出了中国在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产上的领先地位,以及印度在这方面的落后。同时,提到了由于中国对穆斯林少数民族的压迫,美国开始转向印度进口太阳能产品,为印度提供了巨大的出口机会。
🚀 抓住太阳能行业的黄金机会
最后一段总结了整个视频脚本的核心观点,强调了政府政策对市场的重要性,以及印度在太阳能行业中的机遇。提到了印度政府对于推动国内太阳能生产的支持,以及太阳能电池板出口市场的蓬勃发展。强调了印度需要在太阳能产业链中实现自给自足,以减少对中国的依赖。最后,鼓励投资者和企业家关注太阳能行业,利用当前的政府政策和市场需求,寻找投资和创业的机会。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡印度市场
💡政府预算
💡太阳能
💡屋顶太阳能计划
💡多晶硅
💡价值链
💡经济规模
💡出口机会
💡投资者
💡企业家
Highlights
政府在市场中扮演着关键角色,当政府发言时,听从者繁荣,不听从者衰败。
印度政府是市场的“教父”,其政策和预算对股市有直接影响。
乙醇混合政策的宣布导致糖业股票上涨,因为乙醇是由甘蔗等原料制成。
政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设,导致水泥股票价格上涨。
2024年2月1日,印度总理宣布了太阳能领域的新机会,即屋顶太阳能计划。
屋顶太阳能计划旨在在1年内为1亿家庭安装太阳能板,政府将为安装太阳能板的家庭提供免费电力。
太阳能行业的增长预计将带来对太阳能模块、太阳能板、太阳能玻璃、电线、逆变器和多晶硅的巨大需求。
屋顶太阳能计划预计将显著提升太阳能面板的需求,尤其是在印度政府提供补贴的情况下。
太阳能板的安装成本和电力节省之间的数学计算表明,太阳能板在长期内是一个经济上可行的投资。
太阳能板的价值链包括从硅石到硅锭、硅片、太阳能电池和最终的太阳能板的制造过程。
中国在太阳能价值链中占据主导地位,特别是在硅材料和太阳能电池的生产上。
印度的太阳能电池生产能力约为60吉瓦,但对硅锭和硅片的生产仍然依赖进口。
印度的太阳能模块生产能力在过去3年中显著增长,并有望在未来几年内进一步扩大。
由于中国的人权问题,美国开始从印度进口太阳能电池,为印度的太阳能出口提供了巨大机会。
印度政府对太阳能模块征收25%的进口税,以支持国内生产和企业。
印度的太阳能公司,如Adani Solar和Tata Solar,如果能帮助印度在太阳能领域实现自给自足,将获得政府的支持和市场繁荣。
投资者和企业家应密切关注太阳能及其价值链相关的股票,以便在市场中找到投资和商业机会。
印度的太阳能行业正处于增长阶段,政府的支持和市场需求为投资者和企业家提供了丰富的机会。
通过深入了解太阳能行业的价值链,投资者和企业家可以更好地把握市场动态,发现投资和创业的黄金机会。
Transcripts
hi everybody the V truth in the Indian
market and for that matter any Market in
the world is that whenever The Godfather
speaks those that listen to him prosper
and those who don't they simply perish
in this case The Godfather of our Market
is none other than the government of
India and every time the budget releases
or whenever the government makes a grand
announcement there is always a set of
companies whose stock prices go up and
certain companies whose stock prices go
down you don't believe me take the
example of ethanol blending as soon as
the announcement of ethanol blending was
done the sugar stocks shot up why
because ethanol is made out of rice corn
wheat and sugar cane and India has a
surplus of sugar cane which was to be
used for ethanol so you know what the
sugar stock started rising up whereby
they shot up by 14% in Just 2 weeks
while ugar sugar works went up from 87
Rupees to 100 rupees dalmia bhat sugar
went from 332 Rupees to 446 rupees and
balamuri Chi Mills went up from 365 to
370 rupees similarly when the government
announced huge capital expenditure into
roads the Cen stocks of India saw a
rally in fact in the past 5 years the
cimen stocks of India have seen an
extraordinary return due to the most
ambitious Highway projects in India
building on the massive tripling of the
capital expenditure outlay in the past 4
years resulting in huge multiplier
impact on economic growth and employment
creation the outlay for the the next
year is being increased by
11.1% to 11 lakh
11,11 CR rupees FY 24 for cement has
been very good with almost 16% growth
talks like India cements ACC uh even uh
grassin for example these are the ones
that are really moving up sharply this
is the reason why every time the budget
or the PM makes an announcement the
investors watch it very very carefully
so that they can pick the best stocks in
the market and you know what guys on 1st
of February 2024 one such announcement
was made by the prime minister of India
and this again points towards a huge
opportunity in the Solar sector of India
this announcement was about something
called the rooftop solar
[Applause]
scheme solar panels to be installed in 1
CR house es this
year rooftop
[Music]
solar the government would provide free
electricity to 1 CR households in India
who opt to install solar panels on their
rooftops and not so surprisingly Vari
Renewables adani green energy and
insulation Energies saw a rise in their
prices this is absolutely insane isn't
it but you know what guys when the
execution of this project happens with
10 million panel installations India
will see a huge surge in demand for
solar modules solar panels solar glass
wires inverters and even poly silicon so
if you understand this industry in depth
you can use the knowledge from this case
study to both invest or start a business
in the Solar industry of India so if you
want to be a sharp investor or an
entrepreneur let's Deep dive and try to
understand what is this solar gold mine
all about what exactly is the rooftop
solar scheme what is the value chain of
rooftop solar which Indian companies
could benefit from the scheme and most
importantly how can you find a golden
opportunity in this
space Cho let's start from the basics
and understand what exactly is rooftop
solar rooftop solar is nothing but the
installation of solar panels on your
rooftop and once installed the
generation of solar energy is done at no
cost at all and since India is in the
tropical belt we get so much sunlight
that even poor households in India can
use solar energy to fulfill their energy
requirements this is the reason why the
Prime Minister launched something called
the
PM
[Music]
Roop wherein the government is
essentially providing over 30,00 ,000
rupees in subsidies to those who install
solar panels over 1 kwatt hour and 1 Kow
hour capacity needs around 3 to four
solar panels and for 1 CR poorest
families who are installing these solar
rooftops the government is even giving
away 300 units of free electricity every
single month this is the reason why it
is expected to boost the demand of solar
panels by a large large extent but this
breaks the question in a country where
most people earn less than 30,000 rupees
a month how does installing a solar
panel worth 1.8 lakh rupees make any
sense at all well let's do the math and
understand this better a typical Indian
household usually requires around 350
units as in 350 Kow hour per month and
the average power tariff is around 6.5
rupees per kilowatt hour so this way the
electricity bill turns out to be 2275
rupes per month and 27,300 rupees per
year now a 3 Kow solar panel costs an
average of around 1.8 lakh rupees but if
you look at the government subid the
government has offered only 30,000 rupes
per kilowatt hour up to 2 kwatt hour and
18,000 rupees for the third kilowatt so
if my household is using 3 kwatt hour I
would get a subsidy of 78,000 rupees in
total so the average cost of panel
installation is 1.8 lakh rupees minus
78,000 rupes equal to 1ak 2,000 rupes
but along with that you would also need
an inverter worth 50,000 rup and
miscellaneous cost in installation of
around 20,000 rup so the total budget
needed for this would be 1.72 lakh
rupees including the subsidy so if your
power bill is 27,300 rupees and your
solar panel cost 172,000 rupees then it
would take you 6.3 years just to break
even but the best part is that the life
of a solar panel is over 25 years and
most companies will give you 25 years
warranty as well that means after 6
years you could get 18.7 years of free
electricity on top of that with the
scheme you you can even sell electricity
that you do not need at all and this is
something known as net metering so if
your electricity is connected to a grid
the extra electricity goes back into the
power grid which gives you credit and
eventually cuts down on your regular
electricity bills now the primary
question over here is which Indian
companies are going to benefit from the
scheme well firstly if you look at this
number 1.8 lakh Rupees is a huge amount
for most Indian households and here if a
finance year like Bajaj Finance stepson
and gives them an offer to pay emis in
four to 5 years then the adoption will
happen much faster and both solar panel
companies as well as finance companies
like Bajaj finance will benefit so
here's where there's a huge demand in
selling solar panels selling financing
services and also Insurance Services
because people will be skeptical to
install solar panels because 6.3 years
to break even is a big big time span
this is the first segment of
opportunities for both investors as well
as entrepreneurs and this brings us to
the second segment and here's where we
need to go deep inside the solar panel
so that we can understand what are the
opportunities in the materials needed
for the solar panel you see the most
fundamental element used in solar panels
is poly silicon which is essentially a
processed version of silicon and silicon
is so so crazy that it is super
efficient in capturing the sunlight and
it is so efficient that even after 25
years it can work at 80% efficiency and
it is so cheap that it is 1,000 times
cheaper than its competitors like
gallium arenite so just like lithium is
for Ev oil is for IC engines and silicon
is for solar panels and you know what
silicon is the second most abundant
material on Earth so the question is if
silicon is available in large quantities
and we have maximum sunlight then
problem solved right India can export
energy with solar and we could become
the richest country in the world right
well not really because even if silicon
is available in large quantities it does
not mean every country has the
manufacturing capacity to process it and
turn it into solar cells in fact since
2021 you would be shocked to know that
2/3 of India's solar cell manufacturing
came from Imports so the question is who
controls the solar value chain and what
are India's Trends and how do we as
entrepreneurs tap into this opportunity
well the answer to this starts with
silica so let's understand the value
chain of silica silica makes up almost
60% of Earth's crust and it is present
in 95% of the Rocks so the first step is
mining silica then the the next step is
processing it using Coke and purifying
it with oxygen to create 97 to 99% pure
silicon this process requires a ton of
electrical energy then in the next step
it is purified to
99.99% by making it react with hydrogen
chloride Heating and Distilling it and
finally you will have polysilicon which
is the fundamental material in the solar
cell manufacturing then the next step is
melting this polysilicon and converting
it into large cylindrical blocks called
ingots these ingots are then turned into
thin discs called silicon Wafers and
these Wafers are then further processed
to turn them into solar cells and
finally these cells when assembled
together and framed they make up a solar
panel and this solar panel is then
installed in our houses and industries
this is the process of going from silica
to a solar panel if this is clear to you
let's understand the major countries and
the geopolitics involved in this
[Music]
process let's start with silica silica
is mined in more than 60 countries and
as of 2018 the world's largest producers
were United States Netherlands Spain and
Oman but you know what guys when it
comes to processing silica to turn it
into silicon this chart suddenly looks
very very different and surprisingly
only one country leads the chart with
69% market share which country is this
it is none other than China and China is
so far ahead that out of 9 million tons
of silicon produced in the world in 2023
6.6 million tons were only produced in
China and then the second largest
producer was Russia at 620,000 metric
tons and if you look at India we only
produced 60,000 tons of silicon so we
are 100 times behind China and because
China leads with silicon it also leads
with poly silicon and the scary fact is
that 75% of the world's entire poly
silicon in 2020 was only produced in
China so we have a very huge dependency
on China and here's where some people
might come up and say bro so what we can
control the rest of the value chain
right well unfortunately from ingage to
Wafers to solar cells and even modules
China controls more than 80% of this
entire Valu chin so this breaks the
question where does India stand well you
would be shocked to know that India
imported 100% of its wafers in 2021 from
China only whereas our on production of
polysilicon ingots in w wers was
virtually zero so the point to be noted
over here is that whichever company
manages to produce polysilicon ingots or
Wafers for India that company will have
the support from the Indian government
because this is a gold mine for us as a
country so if you're an entrepreneur or
an investor here's a big big opportunity
for you but the agitating question over
here is what on Earth are we going to do
with all the sunlight when we can't
produce the most fundamental material
needed to make solar panels well well
this is where the Adis have stepped in
by starting a poly silicon Factory in
Gujarat in December 2022 on top of that
they've launched India's first solar
Ingot producing plant in 2022 and by
2025 the Adan intend to achieve 2 gaw
capacity with their plant secondly when
it comes to cells and panels India is
doing much better India's solar cell
production capacity is around 6 gaw per
year and when we duck deer we couldn't
find the biggest manufacturers in this
space at all so either this space is
completely untapped or the players are
completely undiscovered so if you know
of any such companies please drop them
in the comments below now what's
fascinating is that India's export of
solar cells have increased from $108
million from January to August 2022 to
$1.3 billion in the same period in 2023
so that is a 12 times increase in just
one year so this breaks the question how
is our exports Rising so fast if China
is still the key player in in the space
well as it turns out the biggest reason
is China's mistreatment and forced labor
practices on the UR Muslim Community and
we all know what's happening to them in
China on the streets of Shing Jang there
is still a tension and signs of what
this place has been
through heavy police regular stops a
sense they're always
watching it is now Infamous for its
brutal oppression of the Muslim weer
minority a huge cash of data hacked from
Chinese police computer servers has
revealed new evidence on how China has
treated imprisoned weager Muslims in the
country Shing Jang region so because of
this the US suddenly stopped importing
from China and started importing from
India and as of December 2023 the United
States alone I repeat the United States
alone accounted for
98.5% of the total exports of solar
cells which means here again we have a
huge export opportunity because the
United States is buying from us
similarly even the Indian government has
announced import duties of 25% on the
sales this means the government itself
is purposefully making it easier for the
Indian businesses to survive in this
space so this points towards a huge
business and investment opportunity in
India right the answer is yes and no yes
you all know why no because even with
the custom tax the imported Chinese
modules still remain a little bit
cheaper than the Indian products so what
do we need to do we need to achieve
economies of skill with this demand from
the US so that we can quickly drop our
prices by 25 to 30% so that we can
compete with China for our exports after
the subsidy is removed so if you're an
investor who's going to invest in the
space do compare the cost of
manufacturing of your portfolio
companies with a Chinese cost and that
to without subsidy because that is where
the real mod of the company lies but as
of now the morel of the story is that
China is still leading this space and
this brings us to the fin final stage
which is modules or solar panels and
here's where you would be delighted to
know that India's module production
capacity has grown from 15 gaw hour to
38 gaw hour in just 3 years and
furthermore it is expected to almost
triple to 110 gaw hour by 2026 and not
just production even India's exports of
modules has jumped exponentially by 364
in fi23 itself so
364 again points towards a huge
opportunity in the Solar module space
for people like you and here's where we
have the biggest players in the space
who are adani solar axite Tech energy MV
photovoltic and many more as mentioned
in this table so do study these
companies so that you can find
Opportunities both as investors as well
as entrepreneurs so with all the
government advantage and the dire need
for solar panels all the entities in the
supply chain will benefit if they beat
China or they help India beat China by
catalyzing the manufacturing in India so
if if you look at the state of the solar
industry of India here's where we need
to truly be atbar and whichever company
enables India to become atbar that
company will go on to benefit because
the Godfather will help these companies
out now I don't know if you realize this
guys but then the tatas and the Adan are
now beneficiaries of the government wave
because they're helping India become aor
so tomorrow if Tata solar or adani solar
goes on to become a listed company and
goes on to see extraordinary rise in the
stock prices you should not be surprised
because both these companies eventually
if successful are helping India recover
from a dire situation whereby we are
dependent on a rival for an important
element of our industry and our progress
apart from this there's a long list of
entities that I'll share in the
description so that you can study these
companies and understand their
businesses both as investors and as
students of business so this brings us
to the last question with all this drama
what are the most important takeaways
that you guys are supposed to take take
away both as investors and as
entrepreneurs of India number one the
government is and will always remain The
Godfather of the market so if you want
to progress listen to The Godfather
lesson number two India is in a dire
need and is far far behind in terms of
polysilicon wafer and Ingot production
so no matter how small or big you are
the force of the government will support
you to become a giant player so do look
into the space both as investors and as
entrepreneurs with utmost interest
number three the solar cell export
Market of India is booming right now and
this time we have the unique advantage
of achieving economies of scale so that
we can drop our prices by 25 to 30% and
then compete with the Chinese prices and
during this sweet time if we end up
achieving economies of scale if we end
up dropping our prices then we would
open up a huge export potential all
across the world so as an investor you
can go bullish on these companies and
help these companies become a
beneficiary in this space and last and
most obviously do keep an eye on the
solar and solar value chain stocks this
was the complete overview of the ripple
effect and the opportunities in the
Solar space due to the implementation of
the PM suod yoga that's all from my side
for today guys if you learn something
viable please make sure to hit the like
button in order to make YouTu Baba happy
and for more such insightful business
and political case studies please
subscribe to our Channel thank you so
much for watching I will see you in the
next one
[Music]
bye-bye
[Music]
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