Христо Грозев про теракт в Крокусе

Summary

The transcript discusses a warning issued by the U.S. embassy about potential terrorist attacks in Russia around International Women's Day, coinciding with the Russian elections. It speculates on the possible connections between the warning and recent events, suggesting that the threat may have been a destabilization tactic. The conversation delves into the possible motives behind such an attack, the response from Russian authorities, and the potential involvement of the Haqqani Network. It also touches on the broader implications for Russian society and the role of intelligence services in preventing terrorism, suggesting that resources might have been diverted due to the focus on Ukraine and internal dissent.

Takeaways

• 🔍 The American embassy warned about possible terrorist attacks in Russia around March 8, citing intelligence that threats were imminent in the lead-up to elections.
• 🕵️ The warning indicated a specific threat from the Afghan cell of ISIS (referred to as Ghilka), which had previously targeted Russian interests in Kabul in 2022.
• ⚠️ The Russian response to the warning was initially skeptical, viewing it as an attempt to create panic and chaos. However, arrests of several Ghilka cell members followed the warning.
• 🤔 Speculation arises whether the recent events are directly linked to the US embassy’s warnings or if they inspired a similar attack.
• 🔗 The timing of the attacks is considered significant, occurring after the Russian elections and before the inauguration, raising suspicions of possible internal orchestration.
• 🗣️ The theory that Russian authorities might allow or stage such attacks for political gains is discussed, with historical references to similar events.
• 🔬 The FSB and other Russian agencies are perceived to be in an existential struggle with the West, potentially leading to moral compromises.
• 💥 The attacks are analyzed as either a genuine threat from ISIS or a strategic move to justify increased mobilization and suppression of dissent.
• 🗓️ Reports suggest that Putin plans to initiate widespread mobilization post-elections, with skepticism from military experts about the feasibility of such a large-scale effort.
• 💬 The discussion includes the challenges and resource allocation shifts within Russian intelligence, indicating a potential lapse in counter-terrorism focus due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Q & A

What was the warning issued by the embassy on March 8th regarding Russia?

The embassy issued a warning about possible terrorist attacks in Russia ahead of the elections, specifically in the days leading up to March 8th.

What is the connection suggested between the March 8th warning and current events?

It is suggested that the warning may be related to current events, implying that the embassy's warning could have foreseen or influenced the recent incidents.

How did the American embassy's warning become public?

The warning became public when it was issued to American citizens to be cautious of a potential terrorist threat, although the details were more specific between states and not fully disclosed to the public.

What is known about the threat from the Haqqani network?

The Haqqani network, an Afghan militant group, had previously carried out a terrorist attack against Russian interests in 2012 in Kabul, targeting the Russian embassy.

How did the Russian authorities respond to the warning?

Russian authorities initially dismissed the warning as insufficient information and considered it a rumor to create agitation and chaos. However, they did arrest several representatives of the Haqqani network according to the FSB's version.

What is the possibility that the recent events are unrelated to the American warning?

There is a possibility that the recent events are not connected to the American warning and could be an independent occurrence, though this seems less likely given the timing and specificity of the warning.

What is the theory of the 'Ryazan sugar' operation mentioned in the script?

The 'Ryazan sugar' operation refers to a theory that the Russian authorities might have allowed certain terrorist acts to occur for political purposes, such as creating a pretext for mobilization or to justify actions against perceived enemies.

How does the timing of the recent events relate to the elections and potential mobilization?

The timing of the recent events is significant as they occurred after the elections and before the inauguration, coinciding with rumors of mobilization and creating a sense of urgency and potential for unrest.

What resources and focus does the FSB allocate to different areas such as counter-terrorism, the Ukrainian direction, and suppressing dissent?

The FSB allocates resources to various areas, including counter-terrorism, counter-intelligence activities related to Ukraine, and suppressing dissent within Russia. The balance of these resources may shift based on perceived threats and political objectives.

What is the significance of the reported disruptions in services like Telegram and VKontakte in Russia?

The disruptions in services could be coincidental, but they also fit into theories suggesting a larger operation or response to perceived threats, possibly indicating a state of heightened alert or preparation.

What is the implication of the FSB's potential neglect of counter-terrorism efforts in recent years?

The implication is that due to resource constraints or shifting priorities, the FSB may have overlooked genuine terrorist threats, potentially leading to security lapses and successful terrorist operations.