Trump rocked with CRUSHING electoral news

Summary

In this discussion, political analyst Larry Sabato reflects on the impact of debates on the polarized American electorate. He suggests that while Kamala Harris may not see a significant polling bounce, the debate's effects will be remembered by voters. Sabato also addresses the tight race in key states, the challenges of interpreting polling data, and the potential for shifts in traditionally red states like Texas and Florida. He emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent and the influence of party identification on voter behavior.

Takeaways

• 📊 The polarization in American politics makes it difficult for any candidate to gain significant support from debates, with potential bounces being minimal.
• 🗳️ Despite Kamala Harris's strong debate performance, the impact on polling numbers is expected to be modest, typically around one or two points.
• 📉 The importance of the debate's impact is highlighted by the fact that voting is already happening and impressions from the debate will linger for many voters.
• 🔍 Larry Sabato emphasizes that polling averages are more reliable than individual polls, but still advises caution due to potential inaccuracies.
• 🚩 The transcript discusses the tight margins in key battleground states, with Harris leading in some by very slim margins, illustrating the close race.
• 📈 Sabato suggests that being slightly ahead in polls can be more beneficial than a large lead, as it prevents overconfidence and rallies supporters.
• 🌎 The discussion points to potential shifts in traditionally red states like Texas and Florida, with the possibility of them becoming more competitive.
• 📉 The script mentions the potential for Democrats to gain in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where traditionally red regions are becoming more purple.
• 📊 Sabato warns against complacency, advising campaigns to act as if they are behind even if polls show a lead.
• 🔎 The conversation also touches on the importance of party identification (DNR) in voting behavior, noting its increasing influence on elections.

Q & A

What is the potential impact of the debate on the election polls according to Larry Sabato?

Larry Sabato suggests that Kamala Harris, despite being the clear winner of the debate, might only gain a point or two in the polls due to the polarized electorate. He mentions that people already know where they stand, and the debate might not significantly change their opinions.

How does Larry Sabato view the current state of polarization in the United States?

Larry Sabato believes that the United States is experiencing one of the most polarized and inelastic electorates in modern history, with Donald Trump having a significant role in deepening this polarization.

What does Larry Sabato think about the importance of the debate in relation to the ongoing voting?

Sabato emphasizes that the debate is important because voting is already happening, and the debate could influence the votes of millions who will remember something they liked or disliked about the candidates.

According to the script, which states show a lead for Kamala Harris in the polls?

The script mentions that Kamala Harris has taken the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina according to the four major polling averages.

What is Larry Sabato's opinion on the accuracy of polls?

Larry Sabato expresses skepticism about the accuracy of polls, suggesting that they can be inaccurate and that one should not put too much stock in them, even when they show close margins.

What advice does Larry Sabato give regarding the interpretation of polling margins?

Sabato advises that if one wants to estimate the true margin of error in polls, they should double the listed margin of error due to uncalculated sources of error.

What does Larry Sabato think about the possibility of Florida becoming competitive for Democrats?

Sabato does not rule out the possibility of Florida becoming competitive for Democrats, noting that states evolve over time and can change sides, but he does not see it as a high probability at this moment.

How does Larry Sabato view the potential for Democratic gains in states like Texas, Florida, and Missouri?

Sabato believes it's entirely possible for Democrats to make gains in these states, but he does not consider it a probability. He suggests that such shifts can happen with big events and that one should not underestimate the potential for surprises in elections.

What is Larry Sabato's perspective on the importance of party identification in voters' decisions?

Sabato notes the strong influence of party identification (DNR) on voters' decisions, suggesting that it can lead to cognitive dissonance where voters may support candidates who hold positions contrary to their own beliefs.

How does Larry Sabato evaluate the chances of Jon Tester retaining his Senate seat in Montana?

Sabato views Tester's chances as challenging, given the shift in Montana's political landscape towards more rigid Republicanism, and Tester has never faced a race like the current one.

What is Larry Sabato's prediction on when Texas might become a competitive state for both parties?

Sabato does not predict a complete 'flip' to Democratic control in Texas but suggests it is turning 'purple', meaning it will take time for the state to become competitive for both parties in various elections.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Impact of Debates on Polling and Electorates

Political analyst Larry Sabado discusses the limited impact of debates on polling numbers due to the highly polarized electorate. He suggests that despite Kamala Harris's strong debate performance, the increase in her support might only be marginal, possibly one or two points. Sabado emphasizes that people's political stances are already set, and the debate's influence will be more about reinforcing existing opinions rather than changing them. He also highlights that the debate's effects will build on the foundation laid during the Democratic convention and that there are over 50 days left in the campaign for these effects to play out.

05:01

🔍 Close Race and Polling Inaccuracies

The conversation continues with a focus on the tight race between the candidates and the inaccuracies inherent in polling. Sabado points out that even a one or two-point lead in the polls could significantly impact the election outcome, but he cautions against over-reliance on polls due to their potential inaccuracy. He mentions historical examples, such as the 2000 and 2016 elections, to illustrate the unpredictability of polls. Sabado also discusses the importance of not becoming complacent, even when ahead in the polls, and the potential for shifts in traditionally red states like Florida.

10:04

🗳️ The Role of Party ID and Close Elections

The discussion explores the strong influence of party identification on voters and the potential for close elections in states like Florida. Sabado suggests that while it's unlikely for a state to completely change its political leaning, significant events can lead to fundamental shifts. He also touches on the impact of having a referendum on the ballot in Florida and how it might affect voter turnout and the election outcomes. The conversation also includes the challenges faced by Democratic candidates in offensive races and the importance of not taking any race for granted.

15:04

🌐 Texas's Political Shift and Future Predictions

In the final paragraph, the focus is on the changing political landscape in Texas and the potential for it to become a competitive state in future elections. Sabado discusses the historical context of one-party rule and the issues that can arise, such as corruption. He also addresses the possibility of Texas turning 'purple' rather than 'blue' and the implications this has for future elections. The conversation concludes with Sabado's thoughts on the unpredictability of election outcomes and the importance of continued vigilance and effort from political candidates and their supporters.

Keywords

💡Polarization

Polarization refers to the division of a society or group into opposing factions with strong differences in opinion. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the current state of American politics, where people have strong, opposing views that are difficult to reconcile. The script mentions that polarization makes it challenging for political candidates to gain significant support from the opposing side, as people's positions are already firmly established.

💡Electorate

The electorate is the body of all citizens entitled to vote in an election. The video discusses the impact of debates on the electorate, particularly in a polarized political climate. It suggests that despite the polarization, debates can still influence the electorate's perceptions and potentially sway some votes, even if the overall impact might be minimal.

💡Debate

A debate is a formal discussion on a particular topic, especially in public, between people who hold different views. The video script centers around the impact of a political debate on the upcoming election. It is suggested that Kamala Harris, who is portrayed as the winner of the debate, might not gain significant points in the polls due to the polarized nature of the electorate, but the debate performance can still contribute to building a foundation for her campaign.

💡Bounce

In political terms, a 'bounce' refers to the increase in a candidate's popularity or support in the polls following a significant event, such as a debate. The script discusses the expectation of a minimal bounce for Kamala Harris, indicating that despite her strong debate performance, the impact on the polls might be limited due to the entrenched positions of the electorate.

💡Margin of Error

The margin of error in polling refers to the range within which the true value of an opinion or metric is likely to fall, given a certain level of confidence. The video emphasizes the unreliability of polls, suggesting that the margin of error should be doubled to account for uncalculated sources of error, thus making the polls less definitive in predicting election outcomes.

💡Lead

In the context of the video, 'lead' refers to the advantage a candidate has over their opponent in opinion polls or in the electoral race. The script mentions that Kamala Harris has taken the lead in several key states according to various polling averages, highlighting the significance of these leads in the overall election dynamics.

💡Momentum

Momentum in politics refers to the increasing support or enthusiasm for a candidate or cause, often following a significant event or achievement. The video discusses the potential momentum gained by the Harris campaign following the debate, suggesting that this could influence the election outcome, even if the immediate impact on the polls is not substantial.

💡Overconfidence

Overconfidence in politics can lead to complacency and reduced effort in campaigning. The video script warns against overconfidence, suggesting that even if a candidate is ahead in the polls, they should act as if they are behind to maintain the drive and commitment needed to secure victory.

💡Realignment

Political realignment refers to a shift in the political preferences of a state or region, often leading to a change in the party that typically dominates that area. The video discusses the possibility of Florida experiencing a realignment, suggesting that the state could become more competitive for Democrats, reflecting a broader shift in political dynamics.

💡Offensive Races

In political terminology, 'offensive races' are those where a party is attempting to win a seat or position that they do not currently hold. The video mentions offensive races in Texas, Florida, and Missouri, indicating that these are key areas where the Democrats are trying to make gains in the upcoming election.

💡Defensive Race

A 'defensive race' is one where a party is trying to retain a seat or position they currently hold. The video discusses the defensive race in Montana, where the Democratic candidate is trying to keep their Senate seat, highlighting the challenges they face in a changing political landscape.

Highlights

Impact of the debate on polling is limited due to the polarized electorate.

Kamala Harris might gain only a point or two in the polls despite debate win.

People's political positions are already set, making significant poll shifts unlikely.

Debate performance builds on the foundation laid at the Democratic convention.

Voting is already happening and will accelerate with each week.

Millions will remember debate moments, influencing their vote.

Kamala Harris has taken the lead in key battleground states according to major polling averages.

Leads in states like Nevada and North Carolina are very slim.

Polling inaccuracies are significant, and one should not rely too heavily on them.

Margin of error in polls should be doubled for a more accurate estimate.

Morning Consult poll shows significant leads for Kamala Harris in several states.

Momentum for the Harris campaign could continue, but complacency is a danger.

Florida's political landscape may be shifting, with the state becoming more competitive.

Abortion referendum on the ballot in Florida could impact election outcomes.

Strong party ID influences voting behavior, even when it conflicts with personal beliefs.

Montana's Senate race is a defensive race for Democrats, with Tester currently behind.

Texas is trending less red, but a complete flip to blue is not expected.

Long-term one-party rule can lead to corruption, as seen in Texas.

Ted Cruz has many enemies, which could affect the Texas Senate race.

Larry Sabato invites people to follow his work at Sabato's Crystal Ball for more insights.

Transcripts

now we've got political analyst the

founder and director of the center for

politics at the University of Virginia

and one of my go-to sources for all

things polling and ratings Larry sabado

thank you so much for taking the time

happy to be with you Brian and

congratulations on all that you do I

don't know how you get through so many

things every week well thank you do it

you're young and energetic that's it

well trying to cling on to what youth I

have uh politics makes it tough okay so

so let's start here um so as not to bury

the lead what kind of an impact do you

think that the debate is going to have

as far as polling is concerned knowing

full well that we have one of the most

polarized and inelastic electorates in

modern American history the polarization

makes it almost impossible for kamla

Harris who was the clear overwhelming

winner of the debate to gain very much

you know a point or two maybe three I'd

kind of say one or two which has been

the norm uh recently even for

conventions you get either zero bounce

or maybe one or two points and that's

because people already know where they

stand and particularly because of Donald

Trump uh people have been polarized for

a long time but he has polarized people

Beyond any realization I don't think we

ever knew we would be quite this

polarized but uh what it means is and

and this is really important because I

have seen so much commentary since the

debate saying well she's not going to

gain very much from it and a uh a debate

in early September isn't going to have

much impact on the on the vote no the

vote is already happening it's going to

accelerate with each additional week and

while people forget things quickly they

don't forget things that quickly there

will be a very sizable portion Millions

who will remember something from the

debate that they either liked or

disliked in most cases liked that KLA

Harris did and disliked that Donald

Trump did so this Builds on the

foundation that she created at the

Democrat

convention uh and that Foundation filled

in a lot of blanks there are plenty more

to go but there also more than 50 days

of the campaign to go now You' mentioned

a bounce of maybe one or two or even

three points if you look at the four

major polling averages KLA Harris has

now taken the lead in all of them in

Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania Nevada

and North Carolina but the leads that

she's enjoying especially in States like

Nevada and North Carolina in 538 for

example are .1% 2% in split ticket it's

4 and .5% for silver bulletin it's. 2

and .1% so so first of all wouldn't a a

a bounce of an entire point of an entire

two points have a a massive impact on

the outcome of this race well it could

and should except that polling is so

inaccurate that I wouldn't put too much

stock even in these averages the

averages are better than most individual

polls and I never trust one poll even

the New York Times Sienna College poll

believe believe it or not that is not

the one poll that should be looked at

necessarily but when you've got a margin

this close all we have to do is remember

both the 2000 election the gore Bush

election and of course 2016 when Hillary

Clinton won by three million votes and

two full percentage points and still

didn't wi and Trump still got over 300

electoral votes so people have a lot of

work to do they shouldn't fool

themselves just because uh the elites

including us uh say that the Comm Harris

did extremely well at the convention and

extremely well at the debate that

doesn't guarantee anything they have to

work hard now how much weight are you

putting on on these polls in terms of

impacting your ratings at Crystal

Ball we put less emphasis on the of

polls and we used to look polls can do

one of three things

they can either tell you that candidate

a is way ahead and is going to win or

that candidate B is ahead by a solid

margin and it's very likely to win or

that it's too close for a poll to tell

right and this may this you know Brian

that a lot of your viewers will not know

uh and it's shocking the good research

on polling suggests that if you want to

really estimate the margin of error you

should double the listed margin of error

because there are all kinds kind of

sources of error that cannot be

calculated and included in that uh

traditional margin of error that

accompanies every poll so when you you

think about a poll that has a threo

margin of error well that's plus or

minus three and so it's really plus or

minus six you've got if you got a poll

with a candidate up by a fraction of 1%

you know not only don't take it to the

bank I wouldn't take it outside yeah

yeah well I do want to point your

attention to one more slate that was

just released that I think has turned a

lot of heads and that is the morning

consult polling um which is a high-rated

poster and and they're showing KLA

Harris with leads in Wisconsin

Pennsylvania Michigan tide in Georgia

Nevada and North Carolina so this is

part of a broader Trend that we're

seeing in which the Harris campaign is

gaining momentum do you think that these

numbers remain or do you think that the

the momentum you know continues and and

and Donald Trump continues to relinquish

this lead that he previously

enjoyed well if

tens of millions of Voters are rational

then I would say yes I don't understand

how anyone could watch that debate and

think that Donald Trump is okay or that

he still has uh all of his brain

functions at the age of 78 headed toward

82 and he would be older than Joe Biden

is now at the end of uh of that term how

can anyone do that now let's get

realistic he's got tens of millions of

votes in his his pocket and he's going

to get within you know two or three

percentage points of winning even if he

doesn't win so uh you know I it's hard

for me to say except I should add this

to what I said earlier it's always

better to be a little ahead than a

little behind right because it does

enthuse your supporters in fact I think

being a little ahead is actually better

than being ahead by quite a lot that's

when overconfidence sets in that's when

people say well they don't need my extra

$50 that's when you say I want to go to

a movie tonight instead of going door

too when it's this close they'll put in

the extra effort they'll contribute the

extra money I think the the danger here

is any sense of complacency and that's

that's you know I always make that

caveat when I talk about polling even if

we are ahead you act like you're Five

Points behind um you'll also notice in

the morning console poll that Donald

Trump is down two in Florida now Florida

has been trending red since 2000 do you

think that this might just be an out or

the polls that we're seeing now showing

them close are an outlier or might we

actually be seeing some type of

realignment that suggests that Florida

could be in play for Democrats well I'm

not going to rule that out because one

thing I know from my historical studies

over many many decades is that if you go

back to post Civil War or even to the

turn of the 19th to the 20th century

almost every state has changed sides at

least once this happens regularly you

know a state uh just like a human being

or a family evolves over time uh

everything isn't stationary and so it's

it's possible and Florida is a good

example of a state that has a strong

party base for both sides that would

suggest that fundamental shifts can

happen with big events so I don't rule

it out I don't think it's the

probability but it also isn't true that

the probability here is 80 or 90% I'd

say you know 55 45 something like that

and uh over time Florida will become

more competitive if only because they

get tired of one party winning

everything and then the corruption sets

in yeah well an Emerson poll I believe

it was had Debbie muker Cel Powell tied

with Rick Scott what do you think the

prospect of her unseating him is or or

or Democrats winning in any of these

offensive races this cycle which include

Texas Florida and Missouri oh I think

it's entirely possible I wouldn't call

it a probability but don't we normally

have at least one real shocker uh in the

Senate not every single election but

most of them there are things that can't

be predicted and the polling averages

just simply can't reveal the truth in

advance about all these races so sure

it's it's a possibility I don't know

whether these polls are outliers or not

you only know once you see a long series

of polls or you get the actual election

result but look Rick Scott is is not

exactly

uh you know the Jolly Green Giant

Florida politics he won by a sliver when

he first was elected governor 2010 he

won by another sliver when was reelected

in 2014 in 2018 he got that senate seat

by 10,000 votes against a friend who is

I think was an excellent Senator and is

a wonderful NASA administrator Bill

Nelson so uh Laura can have very close

elections I don't know if you were

around in 2000 but I was down there

watching the 500 37 votes that elected a

president of the United States well

right now Florida is engaged in like

door-to-door um voter contact over PE o

over the prospect of keeping the

abortion ballot on on the November

ballot the the abortion referendum on

the November ballot they're doing the

same thing or try they tried to do the

same thing in Missouri the Missouri

Supreme Court weighed in and said that

they that that against the wishes of the

Secretary of State Ashcraft that

question would remain on the ballot

there is it true that having this

referendum on the ballot of an otherwise

safely read State could have such an

impact that it does put at risk the the

Republicans keeping control of the seats

there yes it could that's the only fair

answer uh the problem is of course it's

lower on the ballot and the Florida's

now revised its ballots so you don't

have butterfly ballots that can do

strange things but it's further down so

you already will have voted for

president president for Senator for

House member uh and I believe that's

when the referenda are listed the uh the

second thing is you got a lot of

pro-choice Republicans uh who may

satisfy themselves by voting for The

referendum or knowing they're going to

go into the polls and do it but still

vote Republican somehow giving Trump a

pass for effectively eliminating roie

way again I don't understand how people

can think that way the the uh brain

process is is a little bit odd yeah it's

a it's a strong cognitive dissonance at

play where you reward the person who has

a position that is directly antithetical

to the position that you want you reward

them with with a promotion or another

job while also kind of doing apologia

for the actual positions that they have

yeah that's exactly what happens and

that tells you how strong party IDE is

today I often say the the two most

powerful influential letters of the

English language are

DNR and they're determining more and

more now to some degree it may be a good

thing it's always been a symbol to

people who don't know much but uh this

is

disturbing it's determining more

elections than it

should and I think that's such a good

point and it's why by the way former

lieutenant governor of Georgia Jeff

Duncan when he came onto the stage at

the DNC he didn't say that Republicans

should become Democrats because it's not

going to happen I mean to to to

um relinquish such a big part of your

identity is the likelihood of that

happening is so slim but he did say it

doesn't make you a Democrat to vote for

Democrats it makes you a patriot and so

he's appealing to another part of their

identity without forcing them to

relinquish something that is so closely

held as whether whether you see yourself

as a democrat or a republican no that's

absolutely true and Duncan and Brad

raffensberger and some of the other

people there uh have been pretty

courageous now they have positions that

you and I might disagree with vehemently

a lot of them probably but you know it

takes a special kind of courage to stand

up against your party and maybe end your

career as my appointee here at the

center for politics our our professor of

practi as Liz Cheney did it's not easy

to end your career to give up everything

you've worked for for years it isn't and

so you have to admire that even if you

disagree with them on every other issue

right uh we had spoken about the

offensive races Texas Florida Missouri

one defensive race for Democrats that's

worrisome is obviously Montana I believe

the only poll that we have is an ARP

poll showing tester down by six points

can you speak on Democratic prospects at

retaining that seat how do you feel um

about Democrats hanging on to Montana

montanans used to be so

independent uh and the independence

actually LED them to the Democrats more

than the Republicans I'm so old I

remember when the Democrats could

regularly controll the governorship in

both US Senate seats well that air is

gone and there are so many uh Rock

ribbed Republicans living in Montana now

some of them come here from other states

of escaping California I hear is a is a

big thing there uh that it's going to be

really tough for tester he's never had a

race like this maybe it's a miracle that

he's been in the senate for 18 years he

got three terms under difficult

conditions maybe he can do it for a

fourth but but the polls the surveys and

even the soundings outside polling are

not encouraging right

now we've seen Texas's margin at the

presidential level shrink for

Republicans virtually every year since

2000 um they used to enjoy around 60%

support now it's down to 52 do you think

based on these Trends first of all that

it's an inevitability that Texas flips

blue and if so when do you think that

that will happen well when you say flip

blue it suggests that you're saying

Texas is going to go back to being

heavily Democratic that's an

impossibility to me it's not turning

blue it's turning purple and it's going

to take a while for that process to work

its way through now when voting a purple

means that in some elections it's going

to vote Democratic whether it's for

president or Senator or or other

Statewide offices and look after a while

as I was saying earlier the corruption

sets in

and what's happening in Texas corruption

right corruption right we're seeing

we're seeing their attorney general get

uh get uh face impeachment and

prosecution we've seen we've seen uh the

the power grid fail numerous times over

and over because there's this is what

happens with with one party rule in a

state that does value corruption that's

that's exactly right so when is it going

to happen of course I don't know I I

always say to people who ask me it's

going to happen in 2050 because I know

for sure I'll be long dead and nobody

will remember I said it uh but it will

take a while now an upset is not

completely ruled out in the Texas Senate

race Ted Cruz has accumulated an amazing

number of enemies even on the

conservative side of things they just

don't like him very much and sooner or

later that hurts you although again

people can survive a long time based on

their their letter the letter that goes

next to their name letter where can

people uh see and hear more from

you oh well they could come to

Charlottesville uh don't come if you

have any affiliation with the neo-nazis

please we've already been through that

yeah yeah if if you have if you're

broadminded we would welcome you at any

time but the center for politics has a

political Outlet that's free this the

crystal ball uh you can just Google

sabados crystal ball or just crystal

ball it will pop up give us an email any

email be a junk email we never give give

out or sell the the email addresses and

twice a week sometimes three times a

week you'll get uh our latest newsletter

in which uh great analysts like Kyle

condic and Miles Coleman will put

together some interesting facets of the

elections you probably haven't thought

much about but which which will enrich

your cocktail party

chatter well thank you so much for the

work that you and everybody on your team

does and uh again for everybody watching

right now please make sure uh to give

Larry and his team of follow uh and

Larry thank you so much for taking the

time today and Brian thank you and

congratulations on all you do and keep

it up you've got a long time Horizon

we're depending on you thank you

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