12 Cognitive Biases Explained - How to Think Better and More Logically Removing Bias
Summary
TLDRThis video script delves into 12 common cognitive biases that influence our decision-making. It explains concepts like anchoring bias, availability heuristic, and the bandwagon effect, illustrating how they shape our perceptions and choices. The script uses relatable examples to highlight the impact of these biases, such as the perception of terrorism threats versus the actual risks from everyday objects. It also addresses biases like confirmation bias, outcome bias, and survivorship bias, revealing how they can lead to flawed judgments and overconfidence. The video aims to raise awareness about these psychological phenomena to promote more rational decision-making.
Takeaways
- 🔑 Anchoring Bias: We rely heavily on the first piece of information we receive, which can skew our decision-making process.
- 🌳 Availability Heuristic Bias: We overestimate the likelihood of events based on how easily they come to mind, often influenced by media coverage.
- 🚶 Bandwagon Effect: People tend to conform to the majority opinion or action, sometimes without critical thought.
- 🛡️ Choice-Supportive Bias: Once a decision is made, individuals tend to rationalize it by emphasizing the positives and downplaying the negatives.
- 🔍 Confirmation Bias: We favor information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs and ignore or dismiss contradictory evidence.
- 🦉 Ostrich Bias: Ignoring negative information can lead to poor decision-making and a false sense of security.
- 🎯 Outcome Bias: Judging decisions based on outcomes rather than the thought process behind them can lead to flawed evaluations.
- 💡 Overconfidence Bias: Excessive confidence in one's own abilities can lead to ignoring important information and taking unnecessary risks.
- 💊 Placebo Bias: Belief in a treatment's effectiveness can actually cause a real improvement, even if the treatment is inert.
- 🏆 Survivorship Bias: Focusing only on successful examples can lead to an incomplete understanding and potentially flawed conclusions.
- 👀 Selective Perception: People tend to notice and remember information that aligns with their beliefs and ignore contradictory data.
- 🌐 Blind Spot Bias: Most people believe they are less biased than others, which can lead to an underestimation of one's own biases.
Q & A
What is anchoring bias and how does it affect decision-making?
-Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions. It influences the perception of subsequent information, causing individuals to make decisions based on an initial 'anchor' value, which may not be reliable or accurate.
Can you provide an example of how anchoring bias works in a car sale scenario?
-In the car sale example, if a seller initially quotes a high price (e.g., $30,000) and later offers a lower price (e.g., $20,000), the buyer perceives the lower price as a good deal due to the initial high anchor. Conversely, if the initial price is quoted as $10,000 and then raised to $20,000, it seems less attractive because the anchor was lower.
What is the availability heuristic bias and why is it misleading?
-The availability heuristic bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events based on how easily they come to mind. It's misleading because it often leads people to make decisions based on information that is readily available or frequently reported in the media, rather than on actual probabilities or statistics.
How does the bandwagon effect influence people's beliefs and actions?
-The bandwagon effect occurs when people adopt beliefs or actions because they perceive them as popular or commonly accepted. It can lead to conformity without critical thinking, as individuals may follow the majority simply to fit in, rather than making independent judgments.
What is choice-supportive bias and how does it manifest in consumer behavior?
-Choice-supportive bias is the tendency to rationalize and defend one's choices after they have been made. In consumer behavior, it can manifest as a person focusing on the positive aspects of a chosen product while downplaying or ignoring its flaws, in order to feel validated about their decision.
How does confirmation bias impact the way we interpret information?
-Confirmation bias leads individuals to favor information that confirms their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. It can result in selective attention to, interpretation of, and memory for information that aligns with one's views, while contradictory evidence may be ignored or dismissed.
What is the ostrich bias and how does it relate to ignoring negative information?
-The ostrich bias, also known as denial, is the tendency to ignore negative information or problems, often with the hope that they will resolve themselves. It can lead to inaction or poor decision-making, as individuals may avoid confronting issues that require difficult choices or actions.
How does outcome bias affect the evaluation of decisions?
-Outcome bias is the tendency to judge decisions based on their outcomes rather than the quality of the decision-making process at the time. It can lead to the incorrect assumption that a successful outcome is the result of good decision-making, even if the decision was based on luck or flawed reasoning.
What is overconfidence bias and why can it be dangerous in decision-making?
-Overconfidence bias is the excessive belief in one's own abilities or the accuracy of one's predictions. It can be dangerous in decision-making because it may lead individuals to rely too heavily on their own judgment or intuition, potentially overlooking important data or alternative perspectives.
How does the placebo bias influence health outcomes?
-The placebo bias, or the placebo effect, occurs when a person experiences a perceived improvement in their condition due to their belief in the effectiveness of a treatment, even if the treatment has no active ingredients. This psychological effect can actually result in tangible health improvements, demonstrating the power of belief on physical well-being.
What is survivorship bias and how does it distort perceptions of success?
-Survivorship bias is the error of focusing on the survivors or successful examples while overlooking those that failed. It can distort perceptions of success by creating the false impression that certain actions or characteristics are the primary drivers of success, when in reality, many factors, including luck, may be at play.
What is selective perception and how does it affect the way we process information?
-Selective perception is a cognitive bias where individuals tend to notice and remember information that aligns with their existing beliefs or expectations, while ignoring or forgetting information that contradicts them. This can affect the way we process information by creating a skewed or biased understanding of the world.
What is blind spot bias and why is it a challenge in recognizing one's own biases?
-Blind spot bias is the tendency for individuals to believe that they are less biased than others, often leading to an underestimation of one's own biases. It's a challenge in recognizing personal biases because it can prevent self-reflection and hinder the ability to objectively evaluate one's own judgments and decisions.
Outlines
🧠 Cognitive Biases Overview
This paragraph introduces the topic of cognitive biases, focusing on 12 common biases researched by Is One Off TV. The video aims to explore these biases in depth, starting with the anchoring bias, which influences decision-making based on initial information received. The script provides examples of how anchoring can affect perceptions of pricing and the availability heuristic, which leads to overestimating the importance of information that is readily available. The paragraph also touches on the bandwagon effect, choice-supportive bias, and confirmation bias, illustrating how these biases can impact judgments and behaviors in various scenarios, from purchasing decisions to political choices.
🚫 Ignoring the Negative: Ostrich Bias and More
The second paragraph delves into the ostrich bias, where individuals tend to ignore negative information, often leading to a selective focus on positive aspects or wishful thinking that problems will resolve themselves. It also discusses the outcome bias, which评判s decisions based on results rather than the decision-making process itself, potentially attributing success to luck or overlooking the context in which decisions were made. Overconfidence is highlighted as a pitfall for those who have been successful in the past, leading them to rely on their gut over facts. The placebo bias is introduced, demonstrating how belief in a treatment's effectiveness can actually improve outcomes, and the concept of survivorship bias is critiqued for focusing only on successful cases while ignoring failures. Selective perception and blind spot bias are also mentioned, with the latter referring to the tendency to believe oneself to be less biased than others, even when evidence suggests otherwise.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Cognitive Biases
💡Anchoring Bias
💡Availability Heuristic
💡Bandwagon Effect
💡Choice-Supportive Bias
💡Confirmation Bias
💡Ostrich Bias
💡Outcome Bias
💡Overconfidence Bias
💡Placebo Bias
💡Survivorship Bias
💡Selective Perception
💡Blind Spot Bias
Highlights
Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions.
Availability heuristic bias leads people to overestimate the likelihood of events based on how available they are in memory.
The bandwagon effect describes how people are influenced to adopt beliefs or actions because others are doing so.
Choice-supportive bias causes individuals to rationalize their choices by focusing on the positive aspects of their selections.
Confirmation bias is the act of favoring information that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
The ostrich bias involves ignoring negative information, often by considering it an outlier or hoping it will resolve itself.
Outcome bias is judging decisions based on their outcomes rather than the rationality of the decision-making process at the time.
Overconfidence bias can lead to poor decision-making as individuals place too much faith in their own judgments.
Placebo bias demonstrates how belief in a treatment's effectiveness can actually cause it to have real effects.
Survivorship bias involves drawing conclusions from the cases that 'survived' or succeeded, ignoring those that failed.
Selective perception bias causes individuals to notice and remember information that aligns with their pre-existing beliefs.
Blind spot bias is the inability to recognize one's own biases, often leading to an overestimation of one's objectivity.
Understanding cognitive biases is crucial for making more rational decisions and avoiding common pitfalls.
The video discusses cognitive biases with examples to illustrate how they influence decision-making.
The presenter encourages viewers to check out additional resources and animations on cognitive biases for further understanding.
Transcripts
hey guys practice psychology here and in
this video we're going to be talking
about 12 cognitive biases most of these
were researched by is one off TV who has
some great animations on topics like
these and other self development topics
so check them out in the description or
on the end screen now let's get into it
number one is anchoring bias we humans
usually completely rely on the first
information that we received no matter
how reliable that piece of information
is when we take decisions the very first
information has tremendous effect on our
brain for instance i want to sell you a
car and you are interested to buy it
let's say you ask me what the prices and
I tell you thirty thousand dollars now
if you come back a week later and i say
i'll sell it to you for twenty thousand
dollars
this seems like a new very cheap price
to you right because your judgment is
based on the initial information you got
which was 30,000 you feel like you're
getting a great deal but let's say the
first time that you ask me and I say
10,000 and then you come back the next
week and i tell you i'm gonna sell to
you for 20,000 now it doesn't look like
a very good deal because of the
anchoring bias this is just a very
generic use of the anchoring bias and I
don't want a bunch of comments about why
thirty thousand dollar car should be
sold for ten thousand dollars but
another example is trees
what if I asked you if the tallest tree
in the world was higher or lower than
1,200 feet and if so how tall the same
effect occurs if I asked you to guess
out of thin air instead of giving you an
anchor of 1,200 feet
the results are crazy number to
availability heuristic bias people
overestimate the importance of
information that they have let me give
you an example here some people think
that terrorism is the biggest threat to
the United States because that's what
they see on TV the news always talks
about it and because of that it inflates
the danger but if you look at the real
perspectives televisions cause 55 times
more deaths than terrorism
yes tvs literally following people and
kill them fifty five more times than
terrorism you're more likely to be
killed by a cow than a terrorist
according to the Consumer Product Safety
Commission it's more likely to die from
a coconut falling on your head and
killing you than a terrorist attack
thank you gary vaynerchuk for that one
even the police that are hired to
protect you from terrorists
it's estimated that you were a hundred
thirty times more likely to be killed by
the police and by a terrorist
that's because people do not make the
decision based on facts and statistics
but usually they make it on news and
stories and stuff they hear from other
people
it's way scarier to die from a terrorist
attack in a falling coconut and because
of this usually the news won't cover it
because there's not much money in it
number three is the bandwagon effect
people do or believe in something not
because they actually do believe it but
because that's what the rest of the
world believes in
in other words following the rest
without thinking if you've ever heard
someone say well if your friends jump
off a bridge would you then that someone
is accusing you of the bandwagon effect
it happens a lot with us
I mean a lot of people vote for a
certain candidate in the election
because he's the most popular or because
they want to be part of the majority it
happens a lot in the stock market too if
someone starts buying a stock because
they think it's going to rise then a lot
of other people are going to start
picking the stock as well it can also
happen during meetings if everyone
agrees on something you are more likely
to agree with him on that object in
management the opposite of this is
called the group think and it's
something companies try very hard to
turn because if nine out of ten people
agree on something for the last person
doesn't and won't speak up
it could squelch a great idea number
four is choice supportive bias so people
have the tendency to defend themselves
because it was their choice
just because I made the choice it must
be right for example let's say a person
buys an apple product
let's say it's a macbook instead of a
windows pc well he's more likely to
ignore the downsides or the faults of
the apple computer while pointing out
the downsides of the pc he's more likely
to notice the advantages of the apple
computer not the windows computer i
would someone point out that they made a
bad decision
well let's say you have a dog you think
it's awesome because it's your dog
although it might poop on the floor
every now and then the same goes for
political candidates not the pooping
part but they both may suck but one of
the lesser of two evils maybe more right
in your mind because you voted for them
number five confirmation bias we tend to
listen to information that confirms what
we already know or even interpret the
information that we receive in a way
that confirms the current information
that we already have let's say that your
friend believes that suites are
unhealthy this is generally a pretty
broad belief he will only focus on the
information that confirms what we
already know is more likely to click on
videos that confirmed that belief or
read articles that support his argument
he doesn't go through and type positive
health effects of increasing blood
glucose levels or positive effects of
eating a bowl of ice cream
no he will instinctively go to google
and type in how bad is sugar for you the
confirmation bias is a very dangerous in
scientific situations and
actually one of the most widely
committed cognitive biases number six
the ostrich bias this is the decision or
rather subconscious decision to ignore
the negative information it may also be
an indication we only want to consider
the positive aspects of something
this goes beyond are only looking for
the positive information but this is
when there is negative information and
we choose to ignore it as an outlier
sometimes even when we have a problem we
try to ignore it thinking it will go
away
let's say you have an assignment to do
it's not something that you really want
to do so you may just keep on
procrastinating with it because you're
minding said it will go away or is
solved by ignoring it
smokers usually they know it's bad for
their health but a lot of them keep
ignoring the negative implications of
cigarettes thinking it will not damage
them or might stop them before anything
serious will happen because they
consider themselves in our wire to avoid
finding out negative information we just
stop looking for it
this could be a serious crime in many
scientific research laboratories and
basically promotes ignorance number 7
outcome bias we tend to judge the
efficacy of a decision based primarily
on how things turn out after decision is
made we rarely examine the conditions
that existed at the time of the decision
choosing instead to evaluate performance
solely or mostly on whether the end
result was positive or not in other
words you decide whether an action is
right or wrong based on the outcome this
goes a little bit into consequentialism
but it goes hand-in-hand with the
hindsight bias let's say there's a
manager who wants to take the decision
his team and the data are telling him to
make one decision but his gut is telling
him to make another decision
well he goes ahead and makes the
decision that has got told him to do and
then in the end it was the right
decision
does that mean it's actually better to
trust your gut rather than listen your
team who is advising you based on facts
and statistics
well that's what the outcome biases you
take the decision and bass the
effectiveness of your decision on the
outcome even if it was luck
now this is bad logical thinking and
will actually lead you to ruin thinking
and bad outcomes in the long run number
8 overconfidence sometimes you get too
confident and start taking decisions not
based on facts but based on your opinion
or gut because you have been correct so
many times in the past for example you
are a stock trader and you pick five
stocks in a couple years all of them
turn out to be successful and profitable
it increases your confidence to a point
where you can start believing that
whatever start you pick will be
successful it's quite dangerous because
you might stop looking at the facts and
solely rely on your opinion
check out the gamblers fallacy if you
want more information on this just
because you flip the coin five times and
it landed on heads doesn't mean that the
next time there's more than fifty
percent chance of it landing on ahead
again ego is the enemy is a great book
about this bias and i just made a book
review on it
number nine placebo bias when you
believe something will have a certain
effect on you then it will actually
cause that effect for instance you are
sick and the doctor gives you a certain
medicine even if that medicine does not
actually help you even if it's just made
of sugar you believe that it will help
you and it actually causes you to
recover quicker this might not sound
very logical but dozens of experiments
have proven this
that's why if you realize positive
people usually have positive life and
vice-versa the way you think is super
important and we've hit on this in
previous videos for the same reason a
lot of personal development books say
that if you really believe something you
will eventually achieve it or at least
find a way to achieve it because the
placebo effect will give you the
motivation that need the mind truly is a
powerful thing and this actually isn't
always bad thinking in fact you can use
a placebo effect in our advantage if we
use it wisely
there's actually a reverse of this and
it's called the nocebo and this is when
it is native number ten survivorship
bias this bias is when you are judging
something based on the surviving
information let me give you an example
here there are a lot of articles titled
like five things millionaires do every
morning
does that mean doing those things every
morning will make you a millionaire know
there are tons of people who did them
and didn't become a millionaire but
there are also tons of people who did
them and did become a millionaire
so these articles are primarily based on
the ones who survived and reject all
other people to do the same thing but
did not become millionaires
another example is to say that buildings
in an ancient city were built using
extreme engineering because they lasted
so long
this is a bad conclusion because you
aren't considering what ratio of
buildings were built to how many that
lasted
you're only seeing the ones that lasted
thousands of years of weathering when
the other ninety percent I've already
washed away it's hard to know what you
don't know
number 11 selective perception i like
this one
selective perception is a form of bias
that causes people to perceive messages
and actions according to their frame of
reference using selective perception
people tend to overlook and forget that
contradicts our beliefs or expectations
let's say for example you're a smoker
and you're a big fan of soccer
you're more likely to ignore
the negative advertisements about
cigarettes because since you are already
smoking you have this perception that
it's okay to smoke but there's an
advertisement about soccer you are more
likely to notice it because you have a
very positive perception about it
this is actually something really
interesting and has to do with how you
perceive the world due to your
subconscious mind and what it filters
out the last one is called the blind
spot bias if I asked you how biased you
are you would probably say that you are
less biased than the average person and
you are more likely to base your
judgment on facts and statistics and
that's what's known as a blind spot bias
or the bias bias your bias because you
think that you are less biased than
everyone else
for example i guess it's something to my
teacher and the next week she gave me a
good grade on a test if you ask her
whether she was biased when she gave me
that grade the answer will be that the
gift never affected her decision when
marking my paper but if you ask her if
other teachers are biased when students
give them gifts she will say yes
in most cases and that's what the blind
spot biases i really enjoyed creating
this video but most of the content was
curated by my friend is gone off he's
got a channel similar to mine and I'd
like you to check it out here or in the
description i hope you guys enjoyed this
video and learn something if you want
more valuables like this check out my
channel and subscribe thanks for
watching
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