【股票】台股還沒漲完？1檔高股息ETF年賺20%？00940換股小心5風險？ft.清流君｜下班經濟學460

風傳媒 The Storm Media

20 May 202419:23

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses the risks of investing in high dividend ETFs and highlights the importance of choosing the right investment strategy. It features insights from an expert, Qing Liu Jun, who warns against the pitfalls of common approaches like regular purchases and recommends a specific high dividend ETF (00713) for its strong historical performance and stability. He emphasizes the benefits of a one-time investment over periodic buying and stresses the importance of understanding market dynamics and risks associated with high dividend ETFs.

Takeaways

📈 High Dividend ETFs in Taiwan have reached a total scale of over 1 trillion Taiwan dollars in 2024, indicating significant market interest.
⚠️ There are risks associated with buying ETFs, especially if done incorrectly, such as the potential for losses through 'front running' strategies.
🤔 The concept of 'eating tofu' refers to a predatory trading practice where large players manipulate the market to their advantage, often at the expense of retail investors.
🌐 'Front running' is an international term for a strategy where traders anticipate the market movements of large funds, such as ETFs, to make profits.
📉 High Dividend ETFs are weighted by dividend rates, which can lead to smaller market cap companies having a disproportionately large impact on the ETF's performance.
😓 Retail investors are often the ones who suffer losses in these strategies, especially those who are new to the market or hold long-term positions in ETFs.
💡 The speaker recommends a specific High Dividend ETF, 00713, which uses a multi-factor scoring system and minimum variance weighting, showing a historical performance of 20% annualized return.
📊 The Sharpe Ratio of 00713 is 1.28, indicating a high risk-adjusted return compared to other ETFs.
📉 The strategy of 'All in' investment, where one invests a lump sum at once, is suggested to be more effective than regular fixed investment plans, historically showing higher win rates.
📚 The script emphasizes the importance of understanding market indicators like the Shiller P/E Ratio for long-term investment decisions.
🌐 Diversification through a mix of global stock ETFs and total bond ETFs is recommended for general retail investors as a robust asset allocation strategy.

Q & A

What is the total scale of high dividend ETFs in 2024 mentioned in the script?
-The script mentions that the total scale of high dividend ETFs in 2024 has broken through 1 trillion yuan.
What is the potential risk associated with buying ETFs using the wrong method according to the script?
-The script warns that using the wrong method to buy ETFs could be the start of losing money, with the metaphor of 'eating stinky tofu' indicating a bad outcome.
What does the term 'eating tofu' refer to in the context of the script?
-In the script, 'eating tofu' refers to the practice of front-running, where certain parties anticipate the actions of large investors, such as ETFs, and take positions to profit from the expected price movements.
What is the recommended ETF by the index investment expert in the script, and what is its unique feature?
-The script recommends a single high dividend ETF, the Yuanta High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (00713), which is unique for its selection criteria and weighting method based on the minimum variance model.
What is the annualized return of the recommended ETF over the past five years according to the script?
-The script states that the recommended ETF has an annualized return of up to 20% over the past five years.
Why does the script suggest that regular fixed investment might be a wrong approach for investing in high dividend ETFs?
-The script suggests that regular fixed investment could be a wrong approach because it may lead to buying in at higher prices, which could result in mean reversion and potentially lower long-term returns.
What is the difference between monthly dividend distribution and quarterly dividend distribution as discussed in the script?
-The script discusses that monthly dividend distribution might be a marketing ploy to attract investors, whereas quarterly distribution avoids the cash drag and is more aligned with the actual dividend distribution schedule of companies.
What does the script suggest regarding the strategy of combining different ETFs for investment?
-The script suggests that combining different ETFs without considering their factor exposure can lead to conflicting investment strategies and may not yield the desired benefits.
What is the script's stance on the 'All in' investment strategy compared to regular fixed investment?
-The script supports the 'All in' investment strategy over regular fixed investment, stating that it has a higher win rate and better performance over the long term.
What advice does the script give for general retail investors regarding ETF investment in the current market?
-The script advises general retail investors to consider a balanced asset allocation strategy involving global stock ETFs like VT and global bond ETFs like BNDW, rather than focusing solely on high dividend ETFs.
How does the script address the concern of investing at a market peak with the 'All in' strategy?
-The script addresses this concern by showing that even if one invests at a market peak, the long-term performance will still be significant, and the difference in performance between perfect market timing and no timing at all is not as significant as one might think.

Outlines

00:00

📈 High Dividend ETFs: Risks and Strategies

The script discusses the popularity and risks associated with high dividend ETFs in Taiwan, which have reached a market size of over 1 trillion NTD in 2024. It highlights the concept of 'eating tofu', a form of front-running where large players manipulate the market to profit at the expense of retail investors. The speaker, Qingliu Jun, recommends a specific high dividend ETF (00713) for its robust selection criteria and minimum variance weighting model, which aims to minimize risk. The paragraph also warns against the common practice of regular fixed investment, suggesting that it may not be the best approach for high dividend ETFs.

05:01

💡 The Appeal of Dividend Reinvestment and Its Pitfalls

This paragraph delves into the allure of dividend reinvestment, particularly the monthly dividend distribution, which is seen as a way to supplement income. However, the script points out the inefficiencies and drawbacks of monthly dividend distribution, such as the delay in receiving dividends and the impact on compounding effects. It contrasts this with the quarterly distribution of the recommended ETF, 00713, and argues against combining ETFs with different distribution schedules in an investment portfolio, as it may dilute the benefits of the low-volatility factor.

10:02

🎯 The Superiority of Lump-Sum Investing in ETFs

The speaker argues for the benefits of lump-sum investing (All in) over regular fixed investment plans when it comes to ETFs, especially those that track market value. Historical data is presented to show that lump-sum investments have a higher chance of outperforming the market compared to regular fixed investments. The script dispels the myth of the 'smile curve' of fixed investment and emphasizes the importance of market timing, suggesting that even investing at the market peak can yield significant returns over the long term.

15:03

🔮 Navigating Market Volatility with ETFs and Asset Allocation

The final paragraph provides investment advice for the uncertain times of 2024, reiterating the recommendation of a balanced asset allocation between global stock ETFs (VT) and global bond ETFs (BNDW). The speaker reflects on past predictions and how the chosen investment strategy has outperformed bond-focused investment approaches. The advice is consistent with previous recommendations, emphasizing the importance of a long-term, disciplined investment strategy rather than chasing short-term market fluctuations.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡High Dividend ETF

A High Dividend ETF is an exchange-traded fund that focuses on investing in stocks that pay high dividends. In the video, it is mentioned that the total scale of high dividend ETFs in 2024 has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, making it a significant force in the market. The discussion revolves around how to invest in these ETFs properly to avoid losses.

💡00919

00919 is a specific high dividend ETF that people are buying with the expectation of high returns. However, the video warns that attempting to leverage other ETFs like 00940 to boost 00919 can lead to losses, metaphorically referred to as 'eating stinky tofu'.

💡Preemptive Trading

Preemptive trading refers to the practice of buying stocks before they are included in an ETF's portfolio, aiming to profit from the expected price increase. This term is used in the video to describe how large investors might exploit high dividend ETFs by buying shares before they are added to the ETF's holdings, thus disadvantaging retail investors.

💡Yield Enhancement

Yield enhancement involves strategies to increase the return on investment. The video mentions that high dividend ETFs often attract investors looking for stable returns through dividends, but warns that improper strategies can lead to losses instead of gains.

💡Monthly Payout

Monthly payout refers to ETFs that distribute dividends on a monthly basis. The video discusses the appeal of monthly payouts to investors as it creates a sense of regular income, but also highlights the potential drawbacks, such as the impact of dividend reinvestment delays on overall returns.

💡00713

00713 is a specific high dividend ETF recommended in the video for its strong performance. It employs a minimum variance weighting model to reduce risk and achieve higher returns compared to other high dividend ETFs. The video showcases its annualized return of 20%, making it a standout choice.

💡Minimum Variance Model

The minimum variance model is a method used to minimize the risk of an investment portfolio. The video highlights 00713's use of this model to select stocks, which helps in achieving lower volatility and higher returns compared to other high dividend ETFs that use different weighting methods.

💡Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Dollar-cost averaging is an investment strategy where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of the asset's price. The video argues against using DCA for high dividend ETFs, suggesting that a lump sum investment (All in) might yield better returns in the long run.

💡Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return. It is mentioned in the video to highlight the superior performance of 00713, which has a Sharpe Ratio of 1.28, indicating high returns relative to its risk. This makes 00713 an attractive option for risk-averse investors.

💡All in

'All in' refers to investing a large sum of money in one go, as opposed to spreading it out over time. The video suggests that, for high dividend ETFs, a single, large investment is more effective than incremental investments, citing historical performance data to support this strategy.

Highlights

In 2024, the total scale of high dividend ETFs has surpassed 10 billion yuan, but using the wrong method to buy ETFs could be the start of losing money.

Some investors are trying to profit from ETFs like 00919 and 00940, but this strategy can lead to losses, metaphorically 'eating stinky tofu'.

The speaker recommends a specific high dividend ETF, the only one that has attracted attention with a 20% annualized return over the past five years.

Regular fixed investment is considered a wrong approach to enter the ETF market, according to the index investment expert, Qingliu Jun.

A detailed explanation of 'front-running', a sophisticated trading strategy used by some large investors to profit from ETFs' constituent stocks.

The risks associated with high dividend ETFs, particularly for new investors and those holding long-term, who may suffer from excessive losses.

The concept of 'strategy reversion to the mean' is discussed, where new ETFs with high dividend strategies may not sustain their performance over time.

An introduction to the ETF 00713, which uses a unique selection and weighting method based on multiple factors and minimal variance.

The comparison between 00713 and other popular high dividend ETFs, showing 00713's superior performance and lower risk.

Critique of the 'monthly distribution' feature of some ETFs, which may not be as beneficial as they seem for long-term compounding.

The importance of considering the timing of investment in ETFs and the potential pitfalls of trying to time the market.

The use of the Shiller P/E ratio as a long-term indicator for stock market performance and its current value for the Taiwan stock market.

A discussion on the effectiveness of 'All in' investment strategy versus regular fixed investment, with historical data supporting the former.

The impact of market timing on long-term investment returns, suggesting that the difference between perfect timing and no timing at all is not significant.

Advice for general investors to consider a balanced asset allocation with global stock ETFs and total bond ETFs, rather than focusing solely on bonds.

A warning against the potential risks of investing in bond ETFs, especially in a changing interest rate environment.

A summary of the investment advice given, emphasizing consistency and the importance of not being swayed by short-term market fluctuations.