The Climate Solutions Worth Funding — Now | Jonathan Foley | TED

Summary

Climate scientist emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate change, highlighting the importance of science in identifying effective, affordable solutions. They advocate for immediate action on cutting emissions, underscoring the 'time value of carbon' and the need for a portfolio of solutions that align with atmospheric carbon levels. The speaker calls for a focus on evidence-based, equitable, and impactful strategies, urging the audience to embrace science to combat climate change.

Takeaways

• 🔬 Science plays a crucial role in identifying and validating climate solutions.
• 🌍 Climate change is a global crisis that requires immediate and effective solutions.
• 📊 A meta-analysis of climate solutions can help determine the most impactful and cost-effective strategies.
• 💡 Science can guide us in prioritizing solutions that are ready to implement now over those that are still theoretical.
• 💰 Many effective climate solutions are surprisingly affordable and can save money in the long run.
• 📉 A cost curve analysis shows that around 80% of climate solutions are cheaper than current polluting practices.
• ⏳ The urgency of addressing climate change cannot be overstated; early action is significantly more impactful.
• 🌳 Carbon removal is necessary but should not overshadow the importance of immediate emission reductions.
• 🌿 Nature-based solutions like reforestation are important but have a slower impact compared to immediate emission cuts.
• 🌐 Science can help geographically target efforts to ensure maximum environmental and social impact.
• 🌡️ Transitioning away from fossil fuels not only combats climate change but also improves public health by reducing air pollution.

Q & A

What role does science play in addressing the climate crisis?

Science plays a crucial role in identifying the causes of climate change and suggesting effective solutions. It also helps in conducting meta-analyses to determine which solutions are most impactful and ready for implementation.

How does a meta-analysis help in sorting out climate solutions?

A meta-analysis in the context of climate change involves collecting and analyzing all available evidence and data to determine which solutions are the most effective and can be implemented immediately.

What does the speaker mean by 'evidence tells us what we should focus on'?

The speaker is referring to the fact that scientific evidence can guide us towards focusing on climate solutions that are already available and proven to be effective, rather than being distracted by less impactful ideas.

How does the cost curve help in understanding climate solutions?

A cost curve ranks climate solutions from the cheapest to the most expensive, showing that approximately 80 percent of effective climate solutions are cheaper than current polluting practices, making them a cost-effective choice.

Why is it important to focus on solutions that are ready to go now?

Focusing on solutions that are ready to implement immediately allows us to start reducing emissions and building up their impact over time, which is crucial given the urgency of the climate crisis.

What does the speaker mean by 'bending the big red curve'?

The 'big red curve' refers to the graph of greenhouse gas emissions. 'Bending it' means drastically reducing these emissions to mitigate climate change.

Why is it crucial to cut emissions drastically in the coming decade?

Cutting emissions drastically in the coming decade is crucial because it prevents a significant amount of carbon from entering the atmosphere, and the impact of these cuts accumulates over time.

How does the concept of 'time value of carbon' relate to climate solutions?

The 'time value of carbon' is analogous to the time value of money, indicating that early action on emissions reductions is more effective and valuable in the long run compared to delayed actions.

What is the significance of the first decades of emissions cuts according to the script?

The first decades of emissions cuts are significant because they account for three quarters of the necessary reductions to reach net zero, emphasizing the importance of early action.

How can science help in geographically focusing climate efforts?

Science and big data can identify specific locations where interventions like stopping methane leaks or deforestation would have the most immediate impact, ensuring that efforts are targeted and effective.

What is the importance of considering equity and justice in climate solutions?

Equity and justice are important considerations in climate solutions to ensure that the most vulnerable and poorest populations are not disproportionately affected and that the benefits of climate actions are fairly distributed.

How does the speaker suggest we align our efforts with the atmosphere and carbon problem?

The speaker suggests using science to orchestrate a portfolio of actions that align with the carbon in the atmosphere, ensuring that our efforts are proportionate and effective in addressing the climate crisis.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Climate Science and Solutions

The speaker, a climate scientist, emphasizes the role of science in both identifying the causes of climate change and providing solutions. They highlight the importance of a meta-analysis to sort through the noise and confusion surrounding climate solutions, identifying the most effective and immediately available options. The speaker also discusses the economic aspect, presenting the concept of a cost curve that shows 80% of climate solutions are cheaper than current polluting practices, thus being a good investment. The urgency of action is stressed, with the need to reduce emissions drastically in the coming decade and continue these efforts to reach net zero emissions by the middle of the century, including some carbon removal. The concept of the 'time value of carbon' is introduced, similar to the time value of money, where early action is crucial.

05:03

🌳 Time-Sensitive Climate Actions

The speaker discusses the importance of acting on climate change solutions immediately, as the impact of emissions cuts is time-sensitive. They advocate for focusing on solutions that can be implemented without delay, such as plugging methane leaks and stopping deforestation, while also acknowledging the need for new infrastructure and nature-based solutions that take time to develop. The speaker points out the mismatch between current investment trends, like venture capital heavily favoring electric vehicles, and the actual needs for a diverse portfolio of climate solutions. They stress the need for evidence-based, cost-effective, and timely solutions that also consider geographical impact and equity.

10:06

🚀 Accelerating Climate Action

In the final paragraph, the speaker calls for redoubled efforts and a commitment to science-based solutions to combat climate change. They express optimism that with collective action and a focus on the right strategies, it is possible to solve the climate crisis. The speaker concludes with a call to action, thanking the audience and eliciting applause, indicating a sense of unity and determination to address the issue.

Keywords

💡Climate Scientist

A climate scientist is a professional who studies the climate and its changes over time. They analyze data and conduct research to understand the dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere and how human activities impact it. In the video, the speaker is a climate scientist who emphasizes the role of science in identifying the causes of climate change and finding solutions to mitigate its effects.

💡Meta Analysis

Meta analysis is a statistical technique that combines the results of multiple scientific studies to draw conclusions about a specific topic. In the context of the video, the speaker mentions using a meta analysis to evaluate various climate solutions, determining which are the most effective based on collected evidence and data.

💡Cost Curve

A cost curve is a graphical representation that shows the relationship between the cost of different climate solutions and their effectiveness. The speaker uses the concept of a cost curve to illustrate that many climate solutions are cheaper than current polluting practices, making them economically viable options for addressing climate change.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat, leading to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The video discusses the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a primary strategy to combat climate change.

💡Net Zero

Net zero refers to a state where the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere is balanced by an equivalent amount being removed, effectively halting the increase in overall emissions. The video highlights achieving net zero as a critical goal in the fight against climate change.

💡Carbon Removal

Carbon removal involves technologies or natural processes that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it, either in the ground or in other forms. The speaker mentions carbon removal as a necessary but smaller component of the overall climate solution, alongside significant emission cuts.

💡Time Value of Carbon

The time value of carbon is the concept that taking action to reduce emissions earlier has a more significant impact on mitigating climate change than taking the same action later. The video emphasizes the importance of early action, as it allows for more time for solutions to have an effect.

💡Infrastructure

In the video, infrastructure refers to the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, such as power systems, transportation, and buildings. The speaker discusses the need for new infrastructure that supports clean energy and reduces emissions.

💡Nature-Based Solutions

Nature-based solutions use or mimic natural processes to address environmental challenges, such as planting trees or restoring ecosystems to sequester carbon. The video mentions these solutions as an important but slower-acting part of the climate strategy.

💡Emissions Cuts

Emissions cuts refer to the reduction of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. The video stresses that the majority of efforts should focus on cutting emissions, especially in the first decades, as they have the most significant and immediate impact on climate change mitigation.

💡Venture Capital

Venture capital is a form of financing that invests in innovative start-up companies with high growth potential. The speaker critiques the current allocation of venture capital in climate solutions, noting that a disproportionate amount is going to electric vehicles, which only address a small part of the overall climate challenge.

Highlights

Science can help us find solutions to the climate crisis.

Meta analysis can determine the most effective climate solutions.

Many good climate solutions are available now and are ready to be implemented.

Science can help us understand the economics of climate solutions.

About 80% of climate solutions are cheaper than fossil fuels and polluting industries.

Cheap climate solutions are the best bargains in human history.

Science can guide us on how, when, and where to deploy climate solutions effectively.

The biggest challenge is to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decade.

Carbon removal is necessary but has a smaller impact compared to emissions cuts.

Time is the most critical variable in addressing climate change.

Cumulative impact of climate solutions is crucial, similar to the cumulative nature of the problem.

Emissions cuts in the next decade can prevent significant carbon from entering the atmosphere.

The longer we wait, the less effective emissions cuts will be.

Ninety-six percent of what it takes to get to net zero is cutting emissions.

Carbon removal, while important, accounts for only about four percent of the solution.

There's a time value of carbon, similar to the time value of money.

Science can help geographically focus our efforts for maximum impact.

Science can ensure that climate solutions also address health crises, such as air pollution.

Science can orchestrate a portfolio of actions that align with the carbon problem.

There's a mismatch between capital investment and the carbon needs in climate solutions.

Science provides six pillars for effective climate action.

We have a narrow window of opportunity to stop climate change, and every action counts.

Transcripts

So I'm a climate scientist

and I've devoted my entire life to this topic.

Why on Earth would anybody want to do that?

Well, it's because science can help us.

It was, after all, science that first told us

that this planet was warming

and we were the cause of that.

But science can also help us find solutions to the crisis.

And we need this more than ever.

Because right now,

everybody seems to be telling us about their favorite climate solutions.

There's so much noise, so much confusion,

all these ideas out there.

How do we sort it out?

How do we figure out what works and what doesn't

and where we should focus?

Well, this is where science can help us.

We can do what's called a meta analysis,

where we collect all the evidence,

all the data, and look at it

and figure out which solutions are the biggest,

which ones are the most effective and which ones are ready to go now.

And here's the good news.

Evidence tells us what we should focus on.

And there are lots of good climate solutions available right now,

ready to go.

Let's focus on these

and less on the ones that are kind of a distraction right now.

Science can also help us figure out the economics of climate solutions.

And what we can do is build what's called a cost curve,

where we stack up climate solutions from left to right,

from the cheapest ones all the way to the most expensive.

And here's the amazing thing.

When we do that,

we find out that about 80 percent of these climate solutions

are actually really cheap.

They're cheaper than what we do already.

They're cheaper than fossil fuels,

they're cheaper than polluting industries,

they're cheaper than destructive agriculture.

And these cheap climate solutions are the best bargains in human history.

They save money now and prevent disaster in the future.

And we should be deploying the hell out of these things.

So science has shown us the “what” of addressing the climate crisis:

What solutions we have, what they’re going to cost,

what we can do.

But we also need help with the how, when, where,

in what ways do we best deploy these climate solutions

to be the most effective.

So let's go build that science of how.

To do that, we've got to go back to the basics.

To stop climate change,

the biggest thing we've got to do is bend that big red curve,

the emissions of greenhouse gases that are causing the problem

in the first place.

And we've got to bend it really hard and really fast.

We've got to cut emissions drastically in the coming decade

and keep cutting them and keep cutting them

through the middle of the century.

But we're also going to need a little bit of carbon removal

to address any remaining emissions.

And together, a whole lot of emissions cuts

and a little bit of carbon removal will help us get to net zero

when we stop climate change from going any farther.

But in all of this work,

the most important variable

and the one that people often forget is time.

That's because climate change is a cumulative problem.

It builds up over time.

The temperatures we're seeing on Earth today

are due to the buildup of greenhouse gases

over the last 150 years.

Well, it turns out that the problem is cumulative

and climate solutions are too.

Let me show you what I mean.

If we cut emissions now into the next decade,

we can prevent that much carbon, that whole blue area,

from ever going in the atmosphere.

And if these emissions cuts are permanent,

then we keep adding to it the next decade

and the decade after that,

building up to a huge impact in stopping climate change.

That's incredible.

This decades emissions does that much work in stopping climate change.

Well, we can cut emissions again in the 2030s

and again in the 2040s,

but the longer we wait,

the less effective these actions are going to be.

They simply have less time to work on the atmosphere.

Well, carbon removal is important too, but it faces an uphill battle

because it starts basically at zero

and it's going to take years to go to the gigaton scale that's required.

So it is important,

but overall it's total cumulative impact is pretty small.

And when we do the math correctly

and we do what's called the integral

or the area under the curve in assessing climate solutions,

we find something kind of extraordinary.

Emissions cuts are really most of the story here.

Ninety-six percent of what it takes to get to net zero is cutting emissions.

And three quarters of this comes from the first decades of emissions cuts.

That's amazing.

Early action matters a lot.

Carbon removal will be part of the story, but overall, its impact is pretty small,

about four percent.

What this tells us is there's a time value of carbon,

just like the time value of money.

Early investments pay off in the long run.

It also tells us about the kinds of solutions we need

and how they unfold over time.

For example, we're going to need a hell of a lot

of emergency brake climate solutions.

Solutions that have no delays

and instantly work on the atmosphere.

Things like plugging methane leaks or stopping deforestation

or big gains in energy efficiency in today's infrastructure,

while we build out tomorrow's infrastructure,

and we're going to need a lot of new infrastructure and power systems

and transportation and buildings.

But infrastructure takes time.

We also need nature-based climate solutions like planting trees,

restoring ecosystems.

But trees and soils take decades to build up carbon

and will be delayed.

And of course, we will need some new technologies.

But these might not show up for a long time,

and the longer we wait,

they are much less effective.

So when we think about climate solutions,

we need to make sure we emphasize the solutions that are ready to go now

so they can start building up their impact over time and not wait.

This is why we say now is better than new

and time is more important than tech.

Science can help us in other ways too.

It can help us geographically focus our efforts

to make sure we're doing them in the most important places.

Science and big data can, for example,

point out where methane plumes are pouring into the atmosphere.

These are satellite images showing specific pipelines

and refineries where methane is pouring into the sky,

causing climate change.

Let's go there and fix these leaks

and make sure that they're not contributing to climate change anymore.

And we can use big data to target other climate interventions,

whether it's deforestation

or closing the dirtiest power plants in the world,

to make sure that every action counts

and can be most impactful right away.

Science can also make sure that we look for solutions that help people,

especially the most vulnerable and poorest people on Earth.

And I can't think of a better example than looking at fossil fuels.

We know that fossil fuels are the biggest contributor to climate change,

but they're also the biggest contributor to air pollution,

particulate matter and smog, right now.

And this air pollution is killing people.

Harvard epidemiologists have estimated

between eight and nine million people a year

are dying prematurely because of the air pollution

caused by fossil fuels right now.

That's more than warfare, guns and tobacco combined.

So when we phase out fossil fuels,

not only do we save us from a climate crisis,

it also saves us from a health crisis here today.

This is a win-win for the world,

especially through the lens of equity and justice.

We can finally then use science

to kind of orchestrate all of these different things,

to make sure that we're aligning our efforts with the atmosphere

and with the carbon problem.

So we have to do lots of different things.

How do we know how to do them in the right kind of proportions,

and build a portfolio of actions that works best?

Well, again, science can help us out here.

This portfolio here shows us what we need to do,

mainly cutting emissions in those big six sectors

like electricity and food and industry.

And also count on a little bit of carbon removal to close the final gap.

So this is what we need to do to get to net zero.

How does that compare to what we're actually doing?

Well, not so great.

When we look at the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States

of where we're putting our money,

or even more disturbingly,

where the private sector is putting money,

in this case, venture capital going into climate solutions.

Venture capital put two thirds of its money into one technology:

Electric vehicles and scooters.

That's two thirds of the money

going to what's basically a five-percent solution.

This kind of mismatch between our capital and the carbon

needs to be fixed in the long run,

so we make sure we put our resources in the best possible places.

At the end of the day, though, science gives us six pillars for effective action.

First, we've got to make sure that solutions are based in evidence,

not just hype and rhetoric.

We also need to make sure climate solutions are cheap

so we can do a lot of them.

And we should look for solutions that are ready to go now,

so they have the maximum impact possible over time.

We can also geographically focus our efforts

to make sure they're most impactful

and ensure that they are helping us through the lens of equity and justice

and are truly beneficial to people, too.

We also, though, can align all of this so our portfolios are lined up

with the carbon in the atmosphere.

In the end, if we do these things, we can still stop climate change,

but only if we do them all.

We still have a narrow window of opportunity to stop climate change,

but we've got to make every day,

every move and every dollar count like never before.

But if we redouble our efforts and truly listen to the science

and step up to be the best people we can be,

I know we can solve this problem.

And with your help, we will.

Thank you.

(Applause)