What La Niña Will do to Earth in 2025

Astrum
17 Sept 202419:02

Summary

TLDRThis video explores the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern affecting global weather. It discusses the recent strong El Niño event and anticipates the upcoming La Niña, explaining their impacts on weather patterns. The script also touches on how climate change may influence future ENSO cycles, emphasizing the need for adaptation and preparation.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Earth's weather and climate are influenced by a variety of factors including its position in the solar system, rotation, atmospheric patterns, and seasonal changes.
  • 🌊 El Niño and La Niña are opposite ends of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which can significantly impact global weather patterns and have historical implications for civilizations.
  • 🔍 The end of a strong El Niño event in June 2024 was marked by record-high ocean temperatures, coral bleaching, Amazon rainforest drought, and extreme rainfall in North America.
  • ⏱️ ENSO cycles typically take 2 to 7 years to transition from one extreme to the other, with episodes lasting 9 to 12 months, though they can extend for several years.
  • 🌡️ ENSO-Neutral periods are characterized by average sea surface temperatures and trade winds, leading to expected weather patterns worldwide.
  • 🌀 The Hadley Cell rotation, driven by the Sun, is a global air circulation that, when altered, can relate to El Niño and La Niña events through changes in trade winds.
  • 🌟 The Southern Oscillation, documented by Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker, is a shift in air pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is part of the larger Walker Circulation.
  • 🌊 El Niño is characterized by higher than average Pacific sea surface temperatures and can lead to ecosystem disruptions, such as coral bleaching and changes in fish populations.
  • 🌈 La Niña, the cooler phase of ENSO, is marked by stronger trade winds and cooler sea surface temperatures, often intensifying neutral conditions in most areas with some regional exceptions.
  • ❓ The impact of climate change on the ENSO cycle is uncertain, but it's likely to amplify the severity of weather events, as recent history shows stronger and more frequent El Niño and La Niña events.

Q & A

  • What is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

    -The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that involves the periodic warming and cooling of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is a complex system that includes changes in sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind patterns, which can have significant impacts on global weather and climate.

  • How do El Niño and La Niña events affect global weather patterns?

    -El Niño and La Niña events can alter worldwide atmospheric patterns, leading to extreme weather conditions. El Niño typically causes droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others, while La Niña often intensifies the normal weather patterns, such as colder and wetter winters in certain areas.

  • What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña events?

    -El Niño is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, leading to a variety of weather disruptions globally. La Niña, on the other hand, is marked by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the same region, which can intensify typical weather patterns in various parts of the world.

  • How do the trade winds play a role in the development of El Niño and La Niña?

    -The trade winds, which blow from east to west across the Pacific, play a crucial role in the development of El Niño and La Niña. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warm water to accumulate in the eastern Pacific. In contrast, during La Niña, the trade winds are stronger, pushing warm water westward and allowing cooler water to rise to the surface in the east.

  • What is the impact of El Niño and La Niña on coral reefs?

    -El Niño events can lead to increased sea surface temperatures, causing coral bleaching where corals expel the symbiotic algae they rely on, leaving them vulnerable. La Niña's cooler waters can disrupt the balance necessary for coral health, potentially leading to other stressors that affect their survival.

  • How do El Niño and La Niña affect the Amazon rainforest?

    -El Niño events can lead to drought in the Amazon rainforest due to the shift in atmospheric circulation, which reduces rainfall. La Niña, while typically associated with wetter conditions, can also influence the rainforest's climate, although the effects are less predictable and can vary from year to year.

  • What was the significance of the El Niño event that ended in June 2024?

    -The El Niño event that ended in June 2024 was one of the five strongest on record. It caused record-high ocean surface temperatures, heat stress on coral reefs, drought in the Amazon rainforest, and extreme rainfall with dangerous consequences for North America.

  • How does the ENSO cycle influence the occurrence of hurricanes?

    -During El Niño, the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic is typically reduced due to increased wind shear. Conversely, La Niña conditions often lead to a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic, with the potential for more and stronger hurricanes.

  • What is the potential impact of La Niña on global agriculture?

    -La Niña can influence global agriculture by altering rainfall patterns. For instance, it can lead to increased rainfall in Australia and east Asia, which might benefit agriculture in those regions, while other areas, like parts of Africa, might experience drought, negatively affecting crop yields.

  • How does climate change potentially affect the ENSO cycle?

    -While the exact impacts of climate change on the ENSO cycle are not fully understood, it is believed that global warming could lead to more intense and frequent El Niño and La Niña events. This could result in more extreme weather patterns and greater variability in global climate.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 El Niño and La Niña: The Power to Change Our World

This paragraph introduces the concept of El Niño and La Niña, which are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These phenomena can significantly influence weather patterns and climate, potentially affecting ancient civilizations. The paragraph discusses the end of a strong El Niño event in June 2024, characterized by record-high ocean temperatures, coral reef stress, Amazon rainforest drought, and extreme weather in North America. It also introduces the upcoming La Niña event and sets the stage for a discussion on how these events work and their global impacts.

05:01

🔄 Understanding the ENSO Cycle

The second paragraph delves into the science behind the ENSO cycle, explaining the role of Earth's position in the solar system, atmospheric patterns, and seasonal changes. It describes the transition from El Niño to La Niña, which typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts for 9 to 12 months. The concept of 'ENSO-Neutral' periods is introduced, where average conditions prevail. The paragraph also discusses the Hadley Cell rotation, driven by sunlight, and how it relates to El Niño and La Niña through the Coriolis Effect and trade winds. Historical impacts of ENSO on global events, such as the Spanish conquest of the Incan Empire and the French Revolution, are mentioned, highlighting the significance of understanding these phenomena.

10:04

🌡️ The Impact of El Niño on Earth's Ecosystems

This paragraph focuses on the effects of El Niño, describing it as the warm phase of the ENSO cycle with higher than average sea surface temperatures. It discusses how El Niño disrupts ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, which suffer from bleaching due to increased water temperatures. The paragraph also addresses the broader ecological consequences, such as the reduction of phytoplankton and the impact on fish populations, which affects coastal communities. El Niño's influence on global weather patterns is highlighted, with examples including droughts in east Asia, flooding in the western United States, and worldwide shipping delays due to low water levels in the Panama Canal.

15:05

🌊 La Niña: The Cooler Counterpart

The fourth paragraph discusses La Niña, the cooler phase of the ENSO cycle, characterized by stronger trade winds and cooler sea surface temperatures. It contrasts La Niña with El Niño, explaining that while El Niño often reverses neutral conditions, La Niña is typically a more intense version of neutral conditions. The paragraph outlines the predicted impacts of La Niña, such as colder and wetter winters in northern North America, increased rainfall in east Asia and Australia, and potential drought in eastern Africa. It also touches on the uncertainty of how climate change may affect the ENSO cycle, noting that while ENSO events are becoming stronger and more frequent, their long-term impact remains unclear.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡El Niño

El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, which has a profound impact on global weather. In the video, El Niño is described as one of the two extremes of the ENSO cycle, leading to record-high ocean surface temperatures, heat stress on coral reefs, drought in the Amazon rainforest, and extreme rainfall in North America. It is also mentioned as having historical significance, potentially influencing ancient civilizations and modern weather patterns.

💡La Niña

La Niña is the opposite phase of El Niño, marked by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The video explains that La Niña is expected to follow the strong El Niño event of 2023-2024, with predictions suggesting it will bring colder and wetter conditions to certain regions, such as North America, and potentially increase the likelihood of a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic.

💡ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

ENSO is an acronym for El Niño Southern Oscillation, which refers to the periodic fluctuations in winds and ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific that lead to El Niño and La Niña events. The video emphasizes ENSO's role in influencing global climate patterns, with evidence suggesting its impact dates back tens of thousands of years and has affected historical events and civilizations.

💡Hadley Cell

Hadley Cells are large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that move air from the equator towards the subtropics, rising and then sinking. The video describes how these cells, driven by the Sun's heat, create a cycle of warm air rising at the equator and cooler air sinking at higher latitudes, which is integral to understanding the global climate system and its relation to El Niño and La Niña.

💡Coriolis Effect

The Coriolis Effect is a phenomenon that causes the deflection of winds and ocean currents due to the Earth's rotation. In the video, it is mentioned as the reason behind the creation of trade winds and is crucial for understanding how changes in these winds can signal the onset of El Niño and La Niña events.

💡Atmospheric Rivers

Atmospheric rivers are narrow, concentrated areas of moisture in the atmosphere that can transport large amounts of water vapor. The video describes how during El Niño, these rivers can lead to significant rainfall and flooding, particularly in the western United States, highlighting their role in extreme weather events.

💡Coral Bleaching

Coral bleaching is a process where corals expel the symbiotic algae living within them, often due to increased water temperatures, leaving the coral white and vulnerable to death. The video mentions that the 2023-2024 El Niño event caused unprecedented heat stress and bleaching in Atlantic tropical reefs, illustrating the impact of climate patterns on marine ecosystems.

💡Upwelling

Upwelling is an oceanographic process where deep, cooler, and nutrient-rich waters rise to the surface, often replacing warmer surface waters. The video explains that during neutral ENSO periods, upwelling supports marine ecosystems by providing nutrients for phytoplankton and fish. However, during El Niño, upwelling can be reduced, affecting the food chain and coastal communities.

💡Walker Circulation

Walker Circulation is a large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern that moves air across the equatorial Pacific from east to west, influenced by the easterly trade winds and ocean temperatures. The video discusses how the variability in the Walker Circulation is a key component of the ENSO cycle, with changes in this circulation pattern indicating the shift between El Niño and La Niña events.

💡ENSO-Neutral

ENSO-Neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present, and the climate patterns are near average. The video describes these periods as a baseline for understanding the global climate system, with weather occurring more or less as expected, in contrast to the extreme conditions brought on by El Niño or La Niña.

Highlights

El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can influence weather patterns and climate globally.

ENSO may have played a role in destabilizing ancient civilizations.

One of the five strongest El Niño events on record ended in June 2024, causing various environmental impacts.

La Niña is predicted to begin in late 2024 or early 2025, potentially bringing significant global weather changes.

ENSO-Neutral periods are characterized by average sea surface temperatures and trade winds.

El Niño and La Niña events alter worldwide atmospheric patterns and can lead to extreme weather.

The Coriolis Effect influences the trade winds and is related to the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events.

ENSO activity has been documented back tens of thousands of years and has historical impacts on global events.

Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker's research in the 1920s led to the understanding of the Southern Oscillation.

El Niño is characterized by higher than average Pacific sea surface temperatures.

El Niño can cause droughts, affect monsoons, and lead to transportation issues and flooding.

La Niña is marked by stronger trade winds and cooler than average Pacific sea surface temperatures.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a high chance of La Niña developing in late 2024.

La Niña can cause colder, wetter winters in North America and increase the likelihood of a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic.

The impact of La Niña on Europe is less clear, but it is expected to bring lower temperatures and varied precipitation.

Global warming may amplify the effects of ENSO, but the exact impact is still uncertain.

The upcoming La Niña is expected to provide more insights into our planet's climate system.

Transcripts

play00:00

Imagine a force so powerful that it  can change weather patterns around  

play00:04

the world and even alter the  fate of ancient civilisations.

play00:08

Earth’s short term weather patterns and long term  climate are influenced by a complex collection of  

play00:14

factors, from our place in the solar system and  the planet’s rotation, to atmospheric patterns and  

play00:19

seasonal changes. To further complicate things,  every few years our planet experiences El Niño and  

play00:26

La Niña events – two opposite ends of a cycle  that are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation,  

play00:32

or ENSO for short. Evidence of the ENSO  goes back tens of thousands of years,  

play00:37

and may have even played a role in destabilising  some of the world’s great ancient civilisations.

play00:43

One of the five strongest El Niño  events ever recorded has finally  

play00:47

come to an end as of June 2024, after months  of record-high ocean surface temperatures,  

play00:53

unprecedented heat stress on coral  reefs, drought in the Amazon rainforest,  

play00:58

and extreme rainfall with dangerous  consequences for North America.

play01:02

With La Niña predicted to begin in late 2024 or  early 2025, what changes can we expect globally,  

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and locally? I’m Alex McColgan, and  you’re watching Astrum. Join me as we  

play01:16

take a look at our changing planet, the  ENSO, and what La Niña will do to Earth.

play01:25

Our previous video about El Niño  explored one side of a global cycle  

play01:30

that typically takes between 2 to 7 years to  swing from one extreme to the other. These  

play01:35

El Niño and La Niña episodes usually last 9 to  12 months, but can last for several years. In  

play01:42

this video we will take a closer look at how  this cycle works, what neutral periods are,  

play01:47

and what might happen as we head into the  opposite extreme of La Niña in the coming months.

play01:53

When our Earth experiences average conditions,  

play01:56

we call those periods “ENSO-Neutral.” But  every few years, fluctuations in wind and  

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ocean surface temperatures can signal the  beginning of an El Niño or La Niña event,  

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and a departure from Earth’s normal conditions.  These events alter worldwide atmospheric patterns  

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and are known to wreak havoc by contributing  to extreme weather and environmental harm.

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Imagine we're on the International Space  Station orbiting Earth. From here we can see  

play02:24

our planet’s spherical shape, and as you might  expect, sunlight affects the Earth’s surface  

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unevenly. More light and heat reaches Earth at  the equator where sunlight strikes most directly,  

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compared to the poles where sunlight  reaches our planet at a low angle.

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In the same way that a hot air balloon rises,  or hot steam rises over a pot of boiling water,  

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the same thing happens along the equator..  Direct sunlight warms up the air, and that hot,  

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moist, low pressure air rises up into the  atmosphere. As the warm air gets higher,  

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it begins to cool off and condense  

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into clouds – this is why we see an abundance  of tropical rainforests close to the equator.

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More warm air continues to rise, pushing the  cooler air away from the equator and out towards  

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the north and south, where it will eventually sink  back down to the surface. Then, that cool air will  

play03:18

move from higher pressure, along the surface  of the Earth, back to lower pressure near the  

play03:22

equator to start the cycle all over again and  complete what we call Hadley Cell rotation. But  

play03:29

how does this worldwide circulation of air, driven  by the Sun, relate to El Niño and La Niña events?

play03:36

The surface winds created by these Hadley  Cells are deflected towards the equator  

play03:40

due to the Earth’s rotation, a phenomenon we  call the Coriolis Effect. It’s this effect  

play03:46

that creates the trade winds on either side  of the equator, and it’s changes to these  

play03:50

trade winds that indicate when we will  experience El Niño and La Niña events.

play03:55

Historically, the trade winds have been  so reliable that sailors have used them  

play03:59

to navigate the globe for centuries, hence the  name, “trade winds.” Chemical signatures of the  

play04:05

ENSO stretch back tens of thousands of years  in paleoclimate indicators like coral fossils,  

play04:11

and we have written records of the ENSO as far  back as the 1500’s.. El Niño events may have  

play04:18

aided Spain in their conquest of the Incan Empire  in the 1500’s, and in the late 1700’s, likely  

play04:24

contributed to crop failures and unrest that  sparked the French Revolution. Despite this long  

play04:30

record of ENSO activity and the massive impact  it has on worldwide weather and environments,  

play04:35

it wasn’t until the 20th century that we finally  started to understand the mechanisms behind it.

play04:44

The first defining breakthrough came in the 1920s,  when a British scientist named Sir Gilbert Thomas  

play04:50

Walker set out to better understand the strength  of monsoons in India. In his search for a way to  

play04:56

predict monsoon strength, he ended up  documenting the Southern Oscillation,  

play05:00

a repeating shift in air pressure that  happens across the equatorial Pacific  

play05:04

Ocean. This oscillation was part of  another large-scale air circulation  

play05:09

that had not been documented before, and  was later named the Walker Circulation.

play05:14

Remember how I said that Hadley Cells circulate  air north and south? The Walker Circulation is  

play05:20

just like Hadley Cells, except instead of moving  air north and south, the Walker Circulation moves  

play05:26

air to the east and west over the equatorial  Pacific. And instead of being driven by sunlight,  

play05:33

the Walker Circulation is guided by the  easterly trade winds and ocean temperature.

play05:38

It would be 60 more years before scientists  were able to connect these changes in air  

play05:42

pressure over the Pacific with the alternating  pattern of warm and cool surface water in the  

play05:48

Pacific. Combined, these make up what  we now know as the El Niño Southern  

play05:53

Oscillation – ENSO. El Niño refers to  the changes in sea surface temperature,  

play05:59

and the Southern Oscillation refers to  the simultaneous changes in air pressure.

play06:05

Unlike Hadley Cells that reliably move air north  and south, the equatorial Walker Circulation is  

play06:11

not consistent and can experience colossal  shifts as part of the Southern Oscillation.  

play06:17

Every few years, the surface temperature and trade  winds over the Pacific experience fluctuations,  

play06:23

signalling an oncoming shift in  the Walker Circulation. In turn,  

play06:28

these shifts, which we refer to as El Niño  or La Niña events, can upset the balance of  

play06:34

weather and ecosystems over the entire Earth. So  what happens to the Earth during each of these?

play06:42

During neutral ENSO periods, the sea surface  temperature and trade winds are near average  

play06:48

conditions. Trade winds blow across the Pacific  Ocean, guiding warm surface waters to travel  

play06:54

west from South America towards Australia and  Asia. As that warm surface water moves west,  

play07:01

it makes way for deep, cooler waters  to rise up in its place. This ocean  

play07:06

circulation brings nutrient-rich cool water  to the surface in a process called upwelling,  

play07:11

where it feeds phytoplankton and in turn  supports other parts of the ecosystem like fish.

play07:17

In neutral periods, weather across  the world occurs, more or less,  

play07:21

as expected. This can include normal  hurricane development in the Atlantic,  

play07:26

and average monsoon rainfall across  southeast Asia. Walker Circulation  

play07:30

drives columns of warm moist air to rise  above southern Asia,northern South America,  

play07:37

and middle Africa, so it’s no coincidence  that these three regions are where we see  

play07:42

a concentration of vast, lush rainforests. The  influence of this equatorial airflow is vast,  

play07:51

so it’s easy to imagine how changes to this system  could cause a ripple effect around the world.

play08:01

The first signs of trouble are when  the trade winds begin to weaken and  

play08:05

sea surface temperature rises in the Pacific,  

play08:08

which can indicate an oncoming El Niño event  like the one we experienced in 2023 and 2024.

play08:14

During El Niño, the colossal columns of warm  air that rise above our world’s rainforests are  

play08:20

shifted to the east or west.This change disrupts  Asia’s monsoon season with prolonged droughts and  

play08:27

water scarcity, and affects the livelihoods  of billions of people in east Asia. The last  

play08:33

El Niño also brought nine atmospheric rivers  to the western United States that led to major  

play08:39

transportation issues, dangerous landslides, and  flooding. You can think of an atmospheric river  

play08:45

like a river of moisture streaming through the  air. When these atmospheric rivers reach land,  

play08:50

they release all of that moisture,  causing monumental precipitation.

play08:56

Everywhere on Earth, this shift in Walker  Circulation is felt during El Niño. However,  

play09:01

the changes you experience in your local weather  conditions may be completely different from the  

play09:06

changes another person sees in their local weather  elsewhere on our planet. El Niño typically brings  

play09:12

a reversal of the normal conditions for a  given area. This is why places like east  

play09:18

Asia or the Amazon rainforest, which typically  get plenty of rain, will experience drought  

play09:23

during an El Niño event, or why usually  dry climates like western North America,  

play09:29

will experience tremendous rainfall events.  The recent El Niño event was also responsible  

play09:34

for worldwide shipping delays in 2023, as there  wasn’t enough water to feed the Panama Canal,  

play09:41

which relies on consistent rainfall to accommodate  all of the cargo ships hoping to pass through. 

play09:47

El Niño is described as the warm part of the ENSO  cycle because Pacific sea surface temperatures  

play09:53

are higher than average during this time. In  addition to changing worldwide weather patterns,  

play09:59

this also negatively affects  ecosystems.Take, for example,  

play10:03

coral reefs. They rely on particular  sea surface temperatures to survive,  

play10:08

and support some of the most important  and biologically diverse life on Earth.

play10:13

Corals have a symbiotic relationship with algae,  but an increase in water temperatures can cause  

play10:19

the coral to expel this algae, leaving it drained  of colour and vulnerable. A reef can recover from  

play10:26

this bleaching if conditions improve in  time, but their risk of dying is high,  

play10:30

and the last El Niño event was no exception. An  unprecedented 99.7 percent of Atlantic tropical  

play10:38

reefs were impacted by bleaching-level  heat stress during the 2023 to 2024 El  

play10:44

Niño event, as part of the fourth worldwide  mass-bleaching event in recorded history.

play10:50

The warmer Pacific waters and weakened trade winds  from El Niño also cause the upwelling of cooler,  

play10:57

nutrient-rich water to temporarily slow or  stop, leading to a dire situation where less  

play11:02

phytoplankton means large numbers of fish  must migrate or perish. As you can imagine,  

play11:09

this ripples across the food chain and can  impact other animals. For coastal families and  

play11:15

communities who rely on those fish for nourishment  or income, this El Niño effect can be devastating.

play11:25

Now that we’ve discussed what it’s  like during a neutral ENSO period,  

play11:28

and the destructive changes that can happen with  El Niño conditions like we saw in 2023 and 2024,  

play11:35

what can we expect from this  upcoming La Niña phenomenon?  

play11:40

La Niña is the other extreme. This period is  marked by stronger than usual trade winds,  

play11:46

and cooler than average Pacific  sea surface temperatures.

play11:51

While El Niño usually causes the  reversal of neutral conditions,  

play11:55

the best way to understand La Niña is to think  of it as a more intense version of neutral  

play12:01

conditions for most parts of the world, with  a few exceptions. During La Niña, the neutral  

play12:06

columns of rising warm air above south Asia and  eastern North America become more pronounced,  

play12:13

while the typical column of warm air above  Africa reverses. Just as your experience of  

play12:18

El Niño is highly dependent on where you are  located, the same is also true of La Niña.

play12:25

As of August 2024, the U.S. National  Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  

play12:31

predicts a 66 percent chance that La Niña will  develop between September to November of 2024,  

play12:37

and a 74 percent chance it will last well into  the Northern Hemisphere’s winter of 2025 to 2026.  

play12:45

And as of this video, models are predicting  a roughly 50 percent chance that this La Niña  

play12:51

event will peak at a moderate strength. However,  while forecasts for a La Niña event happening are  

play12:58

usually correct, the predicted strength for these  events will likely change from month to month.

play13:03

A strong El Niño ending in 2024 does not  necessarily mean the upcoming La Niña will  

play13:10

be as extreme. Sometimes a strong El Niño leads  into a strong La Niña, but other times a strong  

play13:16

El Niño is followed by a weak La Niña. With only  10 times in the historical record where the ENSO  

play13:23

has changed between El Niño and La Niña within  a one year time period, as is expected with this  

play13:29

year’s switch, there just isn’t enough historical  data to draw many conclusions. Besides, scientists  

play13:36

warn that the strength of an ENSO event does not  always line up with the severity of its impacts.

play13:42

So what do we know about the upcoming La Niña?

play13:45

For the northern part of North America, La Niña  brings with it a colder, wetter winter, while the  

play13:52

southern part of the continent might experience  a warmer and more dry winter. U.S. Winter Source

play13:58

And notably, La Niña will increase the likelihood  of a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic,  

play14:04

with the potential for more,  and stronger, hurricanes.

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For east Asia and Australia, this typically  means a significant increase in rainfall.  

play14:14

While in Africa, La Niña can mean  some areas to the west are more wet,  

play14:19

while eastern Africa tends  to experience more drought.

play14:23

The connection between ENSO and  Europe isn’t quite as clear,  

play14:26

since the continent is farther from  the source, but La Niña is expected  

play14:30

to bring lower than average temperatures  to central and western Europe, with less  

play14:35

precipitation across the mainland this winter,  and more precipitation to the north and south.

play14:41

There’s one final thing we need to talk  about when it comes to La Niña predictions:  

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The El Niño and La Niña extremes of the  ENSO have been happening for millennia,  

play14:51

but what’s less certain is how global warming  from climate change will impact this cycle.  

play14:58

While we see short term, localised temperature  swings from ENSO, the all-over trend of global  

play15:04

warming continues on an upward trajectory.  This means we are entering uncharted territory.

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There’s clear evidence that as our planet  continues to warm from climate change,  

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the occurrence of severe weather will escalate.  But the ENSO is a complicated, worldwide,  

play15:23

and in many ways, still an unpredictable  phenomenon. Just in recent history,  

play15:28

El Niño and La Niña events have become stronger  and more frequent, leading to more droughts,  

play15:34

floods, heat waves, wildfires, and severe  storms, like we saw during the last La Niña  

play15:40

event that lasted for three years, from 2020  to 2023. Exactly how global warming may impact  

play15:47

the ENSO cycle is unclear, but we do know that  climate change is likely to amplify that, too.

play15:59

Luckily, life on our planet is nothing  if not resilient and adaptable, and as  

play16:04

our world continues to change and experience the  millennia-old ENSO swings, scientists will learn  

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more each year and be able to make improved  predictions about the complex climate system.  

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The approaching La Niña will undoubtedly teach us  more about our planet's climate. Let's hope we are  

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paying attention and use these lessons to adapt  and prepare for our future in sustainable ways.

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I’d love to hear in the comments what  question you have about our planet’s climate.

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Creating videos about space is a lot of fun but  for someone broadcasting on a large public forum  

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seen by millions of you even I can appreciate  my privacy to some degree for instance I tell  

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you my name but it would be a bit scarier for my  email or phone number my address and my property  

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value or even the names of my relatives to be  freely exchanged information on the public market  

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and yet those are exactly the kinds of  details traded daily by data Brokers  

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profiting off people's personal information  when I first learned about this it made me  

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deeply uncomfortable and given the fact that  there were 3,25 data breaches affecting 353  

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million people in the US last year alone having  this data in databases makes me vulnerable to  

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criminals who might misuse it which is why I'm a  fan of delete me the sponsor of today's video by  

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signing up to delete me which is very easy to  do the experts find and remove your data from  

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those data Brokers helping keep your personal  information safer they give you regular status  

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updates showing you exactly how many data  Brokers have taken your data down and they  

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regularly check again to make sure your data  isn't going right back up look at the results  

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for me it's been great for my peace of mind if  you want to be equally peaceful by stopping data  

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Brokers profiting off your information you  can get 20% sent off by scanning my QR code  

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or going to join deleteme.com astrum and using  the promo code astrum a checkout give it a try.

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Thanks for watching I was honestly Blown  Away by all the incredibly kind comments  

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and messages you've sent me and by the  numbers of you that signed up to the  

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patreon like I said in the replies to your  DMs on patreon everyone here at the astrum  

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team is so grateful to have such an amazing  community if you haven't joined the patreon  

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party yet we're still on our long-term thousand  patreon member drive so you can go to the link  

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in the pin comment to become a part of that  effort when you join you'll be able to watch  

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the whole video ad free see your name in  the credits and submit questions to our  

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team meanwhile click the link to this playlist  for more astrum content I'll see you next time

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