原重庆市长黄奇帆2022年就预言中国房地产由盛转衰，十个指标都达到拐点，只有脑子进水的人会相信政府房地产政策出来之后，房地产行业还是蒸蒸日上

Summary

The transcript discusses the new phase of China's real estate market, marked by a population ceiling, urbanization nearing saturation, aging demographics, and a significant surplus of unsold housing. It highlights the oversupply, high property prices, and the need for developers to adapt to a new normal with lower demand and increased financial caution, moving away from past speculative behaviors.

Takeaways

• 🏗️ China's real estate market has entered a new phase with indicators showing a turning point, suggesting a significant shift in the market dynamics.
• 📉 The population of China is considered to have reached its peak at around 1.4 billion, with a decline expected, affecting the demand for housing.
• 🌆 Urbanization in China has reached approximately 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the U.S., indicating limited room for further growth.
• 👵 Aging population in China is increasing, projected to reach over 30% by 2035, which could lead to a decrease in demand for housing as the elderly typically require less space.
• 🏢 There is a significant inventory of unsold housing, with 600 million square meters of new homes remaining unsold for over a year.
• 🏠 A substantial amount of housing, about 60 billion square meters, is vacant and not used for living, which could flood the market if released.
• 📈 The average housing space per person in China has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling for developed countries, indicating a saturation point.
• 🏗️ Construction volume has seen a dramatic increase, with a 16-fold rise from 2000 to 2017, reaching a level that may not be sustainable.
• 💰 Land and property prices have quadrupled over the past 20 years, creating a high barrier for new entrants and a potential bubble risk.
• 🔨 Infrastructure and urban development, including old city renovations and public facilities like schools and hospitals, have reached a saturation point with limited new demand.
• 💼 The real estate industry's high debt levels, with many developers having a debt ratio of over 90%, indicate a high risk and potential for financial instability.

Q & A

What is the current stage of China's real estate market according to the transcript?

The transcript indicates that China's real estate market has entered a new phase where it has reached a turning point, with a significant shift in market indicators.

What is the population ceiling mentioned in the script, and what does it imply for the real estate market?

The population ceiling mentioned is 1.4 billion people. It implies that the potential for growth in demand for housing may be limited as the population is not expected to increase significantly.

How does the urbanization rate in China compare to that of Europe and the United States, and what is its implication for housing demand?

China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, which is almost equivalent to the 75% of Europe and the United States. This suggests that the potential for further urbanization-driven housing demand is limited, as most of the rural youth and middle-aged population has already been urbanized.

What is the impact of aging population on the housing market as described in the transcript?

The aging population, with the percentage of elderly people expected to rise to 30% by 2035 and possibly 40-50% in the future, will likely reduce the demand for new housing, as older people generally need fewer houses and increased mortality rates will release houses back into the market.

What is the issue with the inventory of unsold houses in China, and how does it affect the real estate market?

There is a significant inventory of unsold houses, amounting to 600 million square meters, which, if not absorbed by the market, could lead to a significant reduction in demand for new housing construction.

How much of the housing stock in China is vacant and what does this signify for the market?

About 20% of the housing stock, or 60 billion square meters, is vacant and used for investment purposes. This high level of vacancy could indicate an oversupply in the market and a potential decrease in demand for new housing.

What is the current per capita housing area in China, and how does it compare to developed countries?

The per capita housing area in China has reached 50 square meters, which is the same as the ceiling in developed countries like Europe and the United States. This suggests that there is limited room for further growth in housing demand.

What is the significance of the construction volume growth in China's real estate market over the past years?

The construction volume has grown exponentially, with a 16-fold increase from 2000 to 2017, reaching a point where it equals half of the global construction volume. This indicates a potential oversupply and a ceiling in terms of construction capacity.

How have land and property prices in China changed over the past 20 years, and what does this trend imply for the market?

Land and property prices have increased by 4 to 20 times over the past 20 years, depending on the location. This rapid increase has created a high leverage environment for real estate developers, which may not be sustainable in the long term.

What are the implications of the completed infrastructure and public facilities for the future demand in the real estate market?

The completion of infrastructure and public facilities, such as schools and hospitals, suggests that there is limited future demand for expansion in these areas, which could affect the overall demand for housing.

What is the current debt situation of real estate developers in China, and how does it impact the market?

The debt situation of real estate developers is high, with a debt ratio of around 90%. This high leverage could limit the ability of developers to take on further debt and may lead to a restructuring of the real estate market.