日本負利率完結| 拆倉潮一觸即發?! 資金流去哪個市場？(English +中文CC)

阿豬 Ah Ju

27 Mar 202409:24

Summary

TLDRThe Bank of Japan has ended its eight-year negative interest rate policy, raising rates to 0.1% for the first time since 2007. Despite expectations of a yen rebound, the currency fell due to continued loose monetary policy and strong US economy. The market's reaction was mixed, with past rate hikes showing varied impacts on stocks. Institutional investors remain optimistic about Japan's economic prospects, with significant buying activity in Japanese stocks. The Bank of Japan's large holdings in ETFs and the potential impact of future sales on the market are a concern. Corporate governance improvements are driving a revaluation of Japanese stocks, which are still considered undervalued compared to global markets.

Takeaways

📈 The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy and raised rates for the first time since 2007, moving from -0.1% to 0.1%.
🌐 This decision followed global quantitative easing trends, where Japan had previously been more aggressive with rates below 0%.
🔍 Market expectations were that the end of these policies would strengthen the yen, but it actually fell after the announcement.
💹 Historically, Japanese stock markets have risen after interest rate hikes, with certain sectors like steel and machinery outperforming.
🏦 The Bank of Japan's policy changes also included ceasing the purchase of ETFs and trust funds to support the market.
🌿 Despite ending its market support, the Bank of Japan still holds a significant portion of the Japanese stock market, estimated at 7%.
🌋 The economic impact of the policy change is complex and not solely dependent on interest rates; other economic factors are also crucial.
💼 Institutional investors remain optimistic about Japan's economic prospects and have been buying Japanese stocks aggressively.
💵 Japan's economy has transitioned from deflation to stable inflation, and wage increases are at a 30-year high, potentially boosting consumer spending and economic growth.
📊 Japanese stocks are considered undervalued compared to other markets like the US, with lower P/E and Price to Book ratios.
🏢 Improvements in corporate governance in Japan are leading to a revaluation of Japanese stocks, reducing the discount previously applied by investors.

Q & A

What is the main reason behind the Bank of Japan's recent decision to raise interest rates?
-The Bank of Japan raised interest rates because it has achieved a stable 2% inflation, marking the end of its eight-year-long negative interest rate policy.
How has the market reacted to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike?
-Although many expected the yen to rise after the rate hike, it actually fell further because the Bank of Japan emphasized that it would maintain a loose monetary policy without hinting at further rate hikes. Additionally, the strength of the U.S. economy has kept the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. wide, leading to a continued decline in the yen.
What has been the historical impact of previous interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on the stock market?
-Historically, the impact of interest rate hikes on the stock market has been mixed. In 2006, Japanese stocks rose by 20% after a rate hike, while in 2000, the Nikkei index fell by 30%. Interest rates are only one factor that affects the market, and other factors, such as economic prospects, play a more important role.
Why are investors not worried about the Bank of Japan stopping its ETF purchases?
-The Bank of Japan has already significantly reduced its ETF purchases since last year, and the market has largely adjusted to this. Therefore, the formal announcement of stopping ETF purchases is not expected to have a major impact on the market.
What concerns do investors have about the Bank of Japan holding a large amount of Japanese stocks?
-Investors are worried that when the Bank of Japan decides to sell the stocks it acquired through ETFs, it could negatively impact the stock prices of companies like Fast Retailing (parent of UNIQLO) and semiconductor companies such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron, where the Bank of Japan holds significant shares.
Why are foreign institutional investors still buying large amounts of Japanese stocks despite the interest rate hike?
-Foreign investors are optimistic about Japan’s future economic prospects, citing reasons like stable inflation, rising wages, and corporate governance improvements. Additionally, Japanese stocks are seen as relatively cheap compared to U.S. stocks.
How does Japan’s current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio compare to the United States?
-Japan's current P/E ratio is around 14 times, while the U.S. stock market has a P/E ratio of 20 times, indicating that Japanese stocks are cheaper in comparison.
What recent policy changes in Japan could drive further stock market growth?
-The Japanese government has introduced policies to encourage domestic investors to buy stocks, which could create additional demand for the stock market.
How has Japan’s corporate governance improvement impacted stock valuations?
-Japan’s improved corporate governance has gradually eliminated the discount that investors used to apply to Japanese stocks due to poor governance practices. As a result, stocks are returning closer to their true value, which has boosted valuations.
What are the broader economic implications of rising wages in Japan?
-The recent wage increases in Japan, with an overall salary rise of 5.3%, are expected to boost consumer spending, which could stimulate the economy and contribute to GDP growth. This, in turn, is seen as a positive indicator for asset prices, including stocks and real estate.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Impact of Japan's Interest Rate Hike on Stocks and Yen

After 17 years, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, ending negative interest rate policy and other loose monetary policies like yield curve control. This move was anticipated by investors and was a response to Japan achieving stable 2% inflation. Historically, interest rate hikes have had varied impacts on the stock market, with some sectors like steel and machinery performing well, while others like banks and retail underperformed. Despite the rate hike, the yen did not strengthen as expected but continued to fall due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary environment and strong U.S. economy. The video also introduces AhJu, a professional investor sharing market insights and investment strategies.

05:02

💹 Bank of Japan's Stock Holdings and Institutional Investor Trends

The Bank of Japan's decision to end its purchase of ETFs and trust funds raises concerns about the potential impact on the stock market. Despite holding a significant portion of the Japanese stock market, the bank is unlikely to sell its stocks abruptly to avoid market collapse. Institutional investors continue to buy Japanese stocks due to factors like Japan's transition to stable inflation, significant wage increases, government policies encouraging stock investment, and relatively lower stock valuations compared to the U.S. market. Corporate governance improvements are also attracting investors, leading to a potential revaluation of Japanese stocks. The video concludes with an invitation to join Patreon for more detailed analysis and information on the Bank of Japan's stock holdings.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Quantitative Easing

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy by purchasing financial assets to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. In the video, it is mentioned that the Bank of Japan has been conducting quantitative easing for 17 years, which involved negative interest rates and buying ETFs and trust funds to support the market.

💡Interest Rate

An interest rate is the percentage at which interest is charged on borrowed money or paid on deposited money. The video discusses the Bank of Japan's decision to raise the interest rate from -0.1% to 0.1%, ending the negative interest rate policy that had been in place since 2016.

💡Yield Curve Control

Yield curve control is a monetary policy strategy where a central bank attempts to influence the shape of the yield curve by setting target interest rates for different maturities. The video mentions that the Bank of Japan has also cancelled this policy, which was part of their extremely loose monetary policies.

💡Exchange Rate

The exchange rate is the value of one country's currency expressed in terms of another country's currency. The video discusses how the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar has changed over the years, particularly noting the drop from 100 to 150, which affected travel and shopping costs in Japan.

💡Investment Banks

Investment banks are financial institutions that assist individuals, corporations, and governments in raising capital by underwriting or acting as the client's agent in the issuance of securities. The video's host, AhJu, is described as a professional investor with over a decade of experience working in investment banks.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds and exchange-traded products that are traded on major exchanges much like stocks. The video discusses the Bank of Japan's decision to stop buying ETFs as part of their monetary policy changes.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video mentions that the Bank of Japan has managed to return to a stable 2% inflation, which is a significant economic indicator.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions of a central bank, such as the Bank of Japan, intended to influence a country's money supply and interest rates. The video discusses how the Bank of Japan's monetary policy changes, including ending negative interest rates and yield curve control, could impact the economy.

💡Corporate Governance

Corporate governance is the system of rules, practices, and processes by which a firm is directed and controlled. The video suggests that improvements in corporate governance in Japan are leading to a revaluation of Japanese stocks, as companies become more attractive to investors.

💡Shareholder Return

Shareholder return is the total profit an investor realizes from the ownership of a stock. The video discusses how improvements in corporate governance can lead to an increase in total shareholder return, making Japanese stocks more appealing.

💡P/E Ratio

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is a valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The video uses the P/E ratio to compare the valuation of the Japanese stock market to that of the US, suggesting that Japanese stocks are relatively cheaper.

Highlights

The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate for the first time since 2007, signaling the end of 17 years of quantitative easing.

Japan has finally achieved a stable 2% inflation, allowing for the shift away from negative interest rates.

Despite expectations, the yen continued to fall after the rate hike, due to the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain a loose monetary environment.

The interest rate hike in Japan is not necessarily leading to further increases in the yen’s value, especially with the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy.

Historically, the impact of interest rate hikes on the Japanese stock market has been mixed, with stock performances varying by sector.

The best performing sectors during past rate hikes were steel, machinery, and wholesale, while banks and retail sectors suffered.

The Bank of Japan has already ceased buying ETFs and JREITs, signaling the end of direct market support, yet Japanese stocks have continued to rise.

The Bank of Japan currently holds 7% of the Japanese stock market, worth over $450 billion USD, with significant unrealized profits.

One major concern for investors is how the Bank of Japan will sell its stock holdings without crashing the market.

Foreign institutional investors have poured 2 trillion yen into Japanese stocks within the first three months of the year, indicating strong confidence in the market.

Japan’s transition from deflation to stable inflation, coupled with a significant 5.3% wage increase, is seen as a positive driver for the economy.

Japanese stocks are relatively cheaper than U.S. stocks, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times compared to 20 times for U.S. stocks.

The improvement in corporate governance in Japan is gradually removing the long-standing undervaluation of Japanese stocks.

Institutional investors continue to view Japanese stocks as undervalued, particularly due to reforms in corporate governance that enhance shareholder returns.

Japanese stocks still have room to grow, given that foreign investors' exposure to the market is not as high as it was in 2021.